Less than 15 hours to go and we shall......

[djAdvocate]

Sept 5, 2012 18:17:47 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 5, 2012 17:56:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

a lot of people think that. i think there is about a 10% chance that it will be a landslide. six months ago, i would have said nil.

Electoral College landslide?
Popular Vote landslide? What percentage would make the land slide?
Both?

i think that an EV landslide is pretty much meaningless. after all, a president could LOSE the popular vote, and still have one.

i think a better standard is popular vote. and i think double digits would make a suitable standard. in other words, i think there is about a 9% chance that Obama will kick Romney's nutsack so hard that he develops two new Uvulas, and i think there is about a 1% chance that the opposite will be true.

[djAdvocate]

wait, i just remembered. uvula is latin, so the plural is not uvulas, it is probably what? uvulae?

[usaone]

2008 was a landslide. Who was the last Democratic Pres to get over 53% of the vote? I cant recall.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 6, 2012 12:50:30 GMT -5 usaone said:

2008 was a landslide. Who was the last Democratic Pres to get over 53% of the vote? I cant recall.

Johnson.

[billisonboard]

Sept 6, 2012 12:50:30 GMT -5 usaone said:

2008 was a landslide. Who was the last Democratic Pres to get over 53% of the vote? I cant recall.

53/4% seems low to be a "landslide".

[djAdvocate]

Sept 6, 2012 13:35:08 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 6, 2012 12:50:30 GMT -5 usaone said:

2008 was a landslide. Who was the last Democratic Pres to get over 53% of the vote? I cant recall.

53/4% seems low to be a "landslide".

i think it is. others will disagree. the utter ass kicking that Reagan gave Mondale was a landslide. that was 18.2%

[usaone]

For a Democrat 53% to 46% is a landslide. Once every 50 years.

[Value Buy]

Ok people!
Wake up time!
Sixty days to go. Both conventions are history.
This board is dedicated to politics and has been rather boring this summer...............Everyone said no one is interested til after Labor Day and the conventions.
Well, we have arrived.
Prove you are interested and get this board back up to par and discuss the issues.
Our country depends on it, more so than ever.
That is how important this election is.

[billisonboard]

Sept 7, 2012 8:29:13 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

... get this board back up to par and discuss the issues.
Our country depends on it, more so than ever. ...

wish there was a way to turn this little guy upside down

[Value Buy]

Sept 7, 2012 8:35:10 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 7, 2012 8:29:13 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

... get this board back up to par and discuss the issues.
Our country depends on it, more so than ever. ...

Bills, everyone knows where I stand.
All I want is coherent discussions and good back and forth debates of the issues, with (maybe) some flaming tar balls thrown in once and a while










wish there was a way to turn this little guy upside down

[Value Buy]

OOOH, I HATE IT WHEN I ACCIDENTLY DO NOT START MY POSTS AFTER THE "ENDQUOTE"

[cme1201]

Sept 7, 2012 8:41:16 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

OOOH, I HATE IT WHEN I ACCIDENTLY DO NOT START MY POSTS AFTER THE "ENDQUOTE"

Much like pencils have erasers, Probords has the modify feature. ;D

[deziloooooo]

Sept 5, 2012 18:17:47 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 5, 2012 17:56:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

a lot of people think that. i think there is about a 10% chance that it will be a landslide. six months ago, i would have said nil.

Electoral College landslide?
Popular Vote landslide? What percentage would make the land slide?
Both?

It is important to go and vote..had to say that. Important to keep what is expected in most States as they go around... With that SAID...the electoral vote is what is important. Popular final tally...not important..

As the experts , the ones who are supposedly experts, making the predictions ..actually on CNN it was suggested only two States real important for the Dems to take..Ohio and was it Michigan ?? Those two go to the Dems, it was said Pubs have NO chance at all. Naturally they are assuming the rest o the country falls into the camps that are expected..if a few of the smaller States surprise any one, these two , if go to the Dems..now one is up for grabes other SEEMS to be going for the DEMS, will over ride sleight changes if any of the samller not sure states go a different route.

Not sure if that is correct but that's what was said with little argument between the five or so commentators there...any thoughts?

[Don't jump me here, I am just the messenger, not sure if that is a correct assumption or not..in a way, scary, to think all this back and forth..the hullabaloo is decided by two States, only one have I ever been in in my whole life...[ yich, shudder]

In a way, I sometimes think I like the back in the day..the old way..staying up late listening to the radio as the time went across the country and final knowledge was when morning newspaper came out in the AM...remember vaguely with Truman and definitely with Eisenhower...

[usaone]

Gallop and Rasmusson both have Obama opening up a lead again. Intrade has a 60% chance of Obama winning.

Not sure what can change in the next 7 weeks.

[Deleted]

I generally find Nate Silver to have a pretty good model. He now has the chance of an Obama landslide at 10.8%. He considers landside double digits. He currently has Obama at 79.8% chance of winning.

I was not nearly as 'into' elections this time. Obviously the lack of a drawn out primary on my 'side' had an impact/was different from 2008. I am a tad more excited now, but there is so much going on that i haven't thought to volunteer much. We don't have commercial tv, so miss all of the ad wars.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 8, 2012 22:59:33 GMT -5 usaone said:

Gallop and Rasmusson both have Obama opening up a lead again. Intrade has a 60% chance of Obama winning.

Not sure what can change in the next 7 weeks.

a LOT could. really bad economic data (rather than the sort of average poor stuff), a currency collapse in Europe, race riots in the US, some major foreign policy bungle.....

but this is all longshot stuff, imo. the odds are that the economy will continue slowly improving, that most people will give the guy we hired last time the benefit of the doubt, and that he will get four more years. that is the MOST LIKELY thing.

but we are a land of dreamers.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 8, 2012 23:15:04 GMT -5 oped said:

I generally find Nate Silver to have a pretty good model. He now has the chance of an Obama landslide at 10.8%. He considers landside double digits. He currently has Obama at 79.8% chance of winning.

Nate is a really good analyst. WAY better than any pollster out there. WAY better. giving Obama 4:1 odds of winning is no small matter. moreover, Obama has tacked on 10% to his favourite status, and 2% to his landslide likelihood.

I was not nearly as 'into' elections this time. Obviously the lack of a drawn out primary on my 'side' had an impact/was different from 2008. I am a tad more excited now, but there is so much going on that i haven't thought to volunteer much. We don't have commercial tv, so miss all of the ad wars.

trust me, you are missing nothing. and this is a very jaded audience. Romney has been bombing the airwaves for months, and is actually not making up ground in key states. he is slipping. in the 10 battleground states he trails in NINE.

really, one need not do more than watch Florida. as i have said many many times, if Romney can't win Florida, he is GOING to lose. if he WINS it, he might still lose, but his odds are vastly improved. Ohio is another one. he is losing in both states now.

[Value Buy]

Sept 9, 2012 0:49:23 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 8, 2012 23:15:04 GMT -5 oped said:

I generally find Nate Silver to have a pretty good model. He now has the chance of an Obama landslide at 10.8%. He considers landside double digits. He currently has Obama at 79.8% chance of winning.

Nate is a really good analyst. WAY better than any pollster out there. WAY better. giving Obama 4:1 odds of winning is no small matter. moreover, Obama has tacked on 10% to his favourite status, and 2% to his landslide likelihood.

I was not nearly as 'into' elections this time. Obviously the lack of a drawn out primary on my 'side' had an impact/was different from 2008. I am a tad more excited now, but there is so much going on that i haven't thought to volunteer much. We don't have commercial tv, so miss all of the ad wars.

trust me, you are missing nothing. and this is a very jaded audience. Romney has been bombing the airwaves for months, and is actually not making up ground in key states. he is slipping. in the 10 battleground states he trails in NINE.

really, one need not do more than watch Florida. as i have said many many times, if Romney can't win Florida, he is GOING to lose. if he WINS it, he might still lose, but his odds are vastly improved. Ohio is another one. he is losing in both states now.

Unfortunately, right now, I agree with you.
Now we have to wait for the debates, and again, I assume Obama can still wipe the floor with Mitt, if the moderation of the debates follows how they operated in 2008.
IMO, they are not really even true debates......

[djAdvocate]

Sept 9, 2012 10:03:37 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Sept 9, 2012 0:49:23 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

trust me, you are missing nothing. and this is a very jaded audience. Romney has been bombing the airwaves for months, and is actually not making up ground in key states. he is slipping. in the 10 battleground states he trails in NINE.

really, one need not do more than watch Florida. as i have said many many times, if Romney can't win Florida, he is GOING to lose. if he WINS it, he might still lose, but his odds are vastly improved. Ohio is another one. he is losing in both states now.

Unfortunately, right now, I agree with you.
Now we have to wait for the debates, and again, I assume Obama can still wipe the floor with Mitt, if the moderation of the debates follows how they operated in 2008.
IMO, they are not really even true debates......

they haven't been debates since the LOWV stopped moderating them.

[djAdvocate]

Obama is now +3.6%, but there are some signs of softening already. he has his best polling numbers since March, as of today- but Romney might still be in this thing. Obama is up in all the polls, but the ABC poll only showed him +1%, which is a bad showiing. also, NC has swung to Romney again, so Romney is over 200EV for the first time in a month. Obama needs another 1/2% in order to top his old polling record of 49.5%. i am honestly NOT sure he is going to make it.

his bounce is 3.6% so far, which is about 1% over predicted. it will probably head SLIGHTLY higher, but that is far from guaranteed, since the Rasmussen numbers are already dropping back. all in all, this has been a not-so bad few days for Romney.

[Value Buy]

A month ago I felt Romney had Michigan, and a good chance to take Ohio.
Today, they are questionable.
I fear Romney might win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College vote this year.

[Deleted]

If Romney wins, i am getting back into the stock market. If not, i will keep building my bomb shelter.

[Deleted]

Sept 11, 2012 16:50:46 GMT -5 @shooby said:

If Romney wins, i am getting back into the stock market. If not, i will keep building my bomb shelter.

Keep building you bomb shelter, remember stock up on plenty of bottled water and spam...hmm, hmm, good.

They say that stuff lasts forever.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 11, 2012 16:50:46 GMT -5 @shooby said:

If Romney wins, i am getting back into the stock market. If not, i will keep building my bomb shelter.

if you have been sitting on the sidelines since he was elected, i feel very sorry for you. my investments are up about 60%

[Value Buy]

Sept 11, 2012 17:11:30 GMT -5 Robert not Bobby said:

Sept 11, 2012 16:50:46 GMT -5 @shooby said:

If Romney wins, i am getting back into the stock market. If not, i will keep building my bomb shelter.

Keep building you bomb shelter, remember stock up on plenty of bottled water and spam...hmm, hmm, good.

They say that stuff lasts forever.

Did you read where a guy closed down his cheese shop in Wisconsin, and discovered some unopened cheddar packed in wood containers from something like 45 years ago stored in the back of a cooler?
He was going to cut it into pieces and sell it for $20 a lb.
I guress he did not follow fifo accounting principals.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 11, 2012 19:05:17 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Sept 11, 2012 17:11:30 GMT -5 Robert not Bobby said:

Keep building you bomb shelter, remember stock up on plenty of bottled water and spam...hmm, hmm, good.

They say that stuff lasts forever.

Did you read where a guy closed down his cheese shop in Wisconsin, and discovered some unopened cheddar packed in wood containers from something like 45 years ago stored in the back of a cooler?
He was going to cut it into pieces and sell it for $20 a lb.
I guress he did not follow fifo accounting principals.

sometimes that sort of thing pays.

[Don Perignon]

Sept 11, 2012 16:50:46 GMT -5 @shooby said:

If Romney wins, i am getting back into the stock market. If not, i will keep building my bomb shelter.

When you rotate the inventory of your stockpile (as stuff gets stale) what do you do with the stuff that reaches its expiration date? Do you use it, or toss it, or give it away?
That being said, do six-year-old canned beets have any real nutritional value?

[usaone]

Sept 11, 2012 17:58:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 11, 2012 16:50:46 GMT -5 @shooby said:

If Romney wins, i am getting back into the stock market. If not, i will keep building my bomb shelter.

if you have been sitting on the sidelines since he was elected, i feel very sorry for you. my investments are up about 60%

Anyone who Let's politics dictate their portfolio probably won't make any money.

[deziloooooo]

Sept 11, 2012 14:57:48 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Obama is now +3.6%, but there are some signs of softening already. he has his best polling numbers since March, as of today- but Romney might still be in this thing. Obama is up in all the polls, but the ABC poll only showed him +1%, which is a bad showiing. also, NC has swung to Romney again, so Romney is over 200EV for the first time in a month. Obama needs another 1/2% in order to top his old polling record of 49.5%. i am honestly NOT sure he is going to make it.

his bounce is 3.6% so far, which is about 1% over predicted. it will probably head SLIGHTLY higher, but that is far from guaranteed, since the Rasmussen numbers are already dropping back. all in all, this has been a not-so bad few days for Romney.

Is this the populer vote , this 3.6 ...only thing that matters is the electorial..are there break downs on that as we move closer to the voting date?

[djAdvocate]

Sept 11, 2012 23:03:54 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

Sept 11, 2012 14:57:48 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Obama is now +3.6%, but there are some signs of softening already. he has his best polling numbers since March, as of today- but Romney might still be in this thing. Obama is up in all the polls, but the ABC poll only showed him +1%, which is a bad showiing. also, NC has swung to Romney again, so Romney is over 200EV for the first time in a month. Obama needs another 1/2% in order to top his old polling record of 49.5%. i am honestly NOT sure he is going to make it.

his bounce is 3.6% so far, which is about 1% over predicted. it will probably head SLIGHTLY higher, but that is far from guaranteed, since the Rasmussen numbers are already dropping back. all in all, this has been a not-so bad few days for Romney.

Is this the populer vote , this 3.6 ...only thing that matters is the electorial..are there break downs on that as we move closer to the voting date?

yes, sir. and here, the news is especially daunting for Romney. Obama is about +100 right now. Obama has about 250 really locked down, Romney about 200, the rest are up for grabs, but most are in Obama's favor RIGHT NOW. so Romney has to bring them back to zero and THEN build a lead. and the fact is that most of them are heading the other direction right now.

if you look at the map, Obama is ahead in every state he won last time save one: NC. Romney is going to need a lot better results in the last 50 days.