Less than 15 hours to go and we shall......

[usaone]

In 2008 we swore the polls were wrong. Well they we not.

They probably will be correct again this year.

[mmhmm]

Nov 3, 2012 13:24:20 GMT -5 usaone said:

Virginia is leaning Obama according to RealClear and Nate Silver.

Florida is all Romney though.

A lot of what I see shows Florida still tied. Who knows, eh?

[deziloooooo]

Nov 3, 2012 15:52:15 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Nov 3, 2012 13:24:20 GMT -5 usaone said:

Virginia is leaning Obama according to RealClear and Nate Silver.

Florida is all Romney though.

A lot of what I see shows Florida still tied. Who knows, eh?

When I saw your post mmhmm I did a quick query , google , on latest Florida polls..seems Ohio also came up..Obama nicely ahead and Florida seems to be all tied though when reading a bit deeper..it seems Obama is up a point or two which I found surprising actually..

www.christianpost.com/news/presidential-polls-2012-obama-leads-in-ohio-florida-race-deadlocked-84369/
==========================

Presidential Polls 2012: Obama Leads in Ohio; Florida Race Deadlocked

By Audrey Barrick, Christian Post Reporter

November 3, 2012|4:38 pm

"The weekend before Election Day, a new presidential poll shows President Barack Obama leading in the swing state of Ohio by six points. His edge over Mitt Romney is much smaller in Florida.

According to NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, Obama has 51 percent of the support among likely voters in Ohio against Romney's 45 percent. The race is tighter in Florida with 49 percent favoring Obama and 47 percent favoring Romney.

The Ohio survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday among 971 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-3.1 points.

The Florida one was conducted Tuesday through Thursday among 1,545 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-2.5 points.


Ohio is a major battleground state with 18 electoral votes. Voters there have been inundated with hundreds of political ads, especially in the final week before the Nov. 6 election. According to the National Journal, Obama for America, Obama's official campaign committee, spent a total of $72.7 million on ads in Ohio alone. Romney's official campaign spent $43.1 million. Additional ads worth tens of millions of dollars were also launched by super PACs and other groups.

Based upon recent polls, there's a possibility Obama may win reelection with a majority of the votes in the Electoral College but without the popular vote.

Florida is viewed as a must-win state for Romney with 29 electoral votes. The NBC News/WSJ/Marist polls may show the former Massachusetts governor slightly behind Obama there, but a Mason Dixon Poll shows Romney leading with 51 percent support over Obama's 45 percent.

More Floridians say Romney would be better at handling the economy but they favor Obama on the foreign policy front. In Ohio, voters say Obama is the better candidate when it comes to handling the economy.

Among those surveyed for the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, in Ohio, 38 percent of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans, and 33 percent as independent or other; in Florida, 37 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans, and 28 percent as independent or other."

[Opti]

Not sure where to post this, but my county in NJ is instituting early voting because of the power issues. So if you are in NJ contact your town government or local library and they will be able to give you details. Our county library was packed today - tons of people with laptops using the WiFi. They had signs posted at the entrance about early voting and where to get your ballot, etc.

Not sure if I will do it or not, but that does imply they think many of our local polling places will be without power on Tuesday.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 3, 2012 11:04:07 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Virginia?
You gotta be kidding.
dj, Virginia is all Romney.

i thought so too until a couple of weeks ago.

edit: i didn't call VA for Obama, bro. it is still a tossup.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 3, 2012 13:24:20 GMT -5 usaone said:

Virginia is leaning Obama according to RealClear and Nate Silver.

Florida is all Romney though.

Florida is barely Romney. i still think he will win it, but it is not at all certain.

[Tennesseer]

Nov 3, 2012 16:45:09 GMT -5 Opti said:

Not sure where to post this, but my county in NJ is instituting early voting because of the power issues. So if you are in NJ contact your town government or local library and they will be able to give you details. Our county library was packed today - tons of people with laptops using the WiFi. They had signs posted at the entrance about early voting and where to get your ballot, etc.

Not sure if I will do it or not, but that does imply they think many of our local polling places will be without power on Tuesday.

Super storm Sandy is a good example why early voting should be allowed in all states. You never know what might happen right before/on election day.

[Deleted]

Nate has Virginia for Obama, Florida for Romney... Florida much closer than Virginia...

[djAdvocate]

Nov 3, 2012 17:47:40 GMT -5 oped said:

Nate has Virginia for Obama, Florida for Romney... Florida much closer than Virginia...

much. VA and CO are not considered tossups at this point.

ok- on the road again! have a nice day!

[vandalshandle]

I am so sure that Obama is going to win this election that I am prepared to promise to come to this very thread, if he loses, and strip naked, while singing "Santa Clause in Coming to Town, while balancing a banana on my head standing on it's tip, while doing side straddle hops in time with a Richard Simmons "Sweating to the Oldies" record.

[usaone]

Other than a miracle it sure looks like its over.

Maybe in 2016 we will get our act together.

[Deleted]

This was fun : www.cracked.com/article_20139_6-bizarre-factors-that-predict-every-presidential-election.html

[Value Buy]

I see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, pulling all stops, promoting any poll advancing the President a lead. Everyone loves to vote for a winner, and they know this, so, make the President look like he is winning.
This could backfire. Some of the more, not necessarily "100% backers" of the President might say he won, so I do not have to bother voting.

Mitt has them right where he wants them!
Ohio early voting-both parties well under the 30% level, for either candidate.
The rest? Over 40% of the total vote?
Independents
Neither side knows how they voted, but chances are greater they voted for Romney rather than Obama.
Democratic strategists in every state admit early voting percent leads for the President are down anywhere from 5 to 10% from leads he held over McCain in 2008.
They also acknowledge Republican voter strength is stronger the day of the polls than the Democrats.
Forget the polls. They do not look as accurate as previous years.

[jkscott]

There will be a surge. Its going to be terrific. One more day!

How can you even take ABC NBC CNN seriously. They don't even mention Benghazi.

[iono1]

Nov 4, 2012 9:29:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, pulling all stops, promoting any poll advancing the President a lead. Everyone loves to vote for a winner, and they know this, so, make the President look like he is winning.
This could backfire. Some of the more, not necessarily "100% backers" of the President might say he won, so I do not have to bother voting.

Mitt has them right where he wants them!
Ohio early voting-both parties well under the 30% level, for either candidate.
The rest? Over 40% of the total vote?
Independents
Neither side knows how they voted, but chances are greater they voted for Romney rather than Obama.
Democratic strategists in every state admit early voting percent leads for the President are down anywhere from 5 to 10% from leads he held over McCain in 2008.
They also acknowledge Republican voter strength is stronger the day of the polls than the Democrats.
Forget the polls. They do not look as accurate as previous years.

Your last line says it all: English translation-I look at the polls, I know Romney can't win the electoral vote, but I'm the captain of this thread and I'm going down with the ship.
The biggest problem you have in your assumptions is that you think those 40% independents are really independent. I have no party affiliation because when I 1st started voting in the 1970s I was right down the middle, voting equally R & D so I didn't want to affiliate with either. That later shifted more to the R side. As the Rs moved to the far right, I virtually stopped voting R. I now vote over 90% D and if I was forced to register for 1 party I'd choose the Democratic party. I just choose not to. Independents are not really independent. I'm a virtual Democrat. Most independents vote mainly for 1 party. In order to accurately evaluate the independent vote, you really have to know which party the independents in a state actually vote for. Here's a good example: My relatives in California are all independents, but they would slit their wrists rather than vote for Romney.
Your posts reminds me of when I watch football. If my team is down 10 points with a minute to go and they get the ball 1st & 10 on their own 20, I'm rooting in my heart for them to get a quick touchdown, get an onside kick, and then either get another quick touchdown and win the game or get a field goal to tie and win in overtime. However, in my head, I know that my team, the Buffalo Bills, will not pull off the miracle finish. Mitt Romney is your Buffalo Bills.

[usaone]

Nov 4, 2012 9:29:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, pulling all stops, promoting any poll advancing the President a lead. Everyone loves to vote for a winner, and they know this, so, make the President look like he is winning.
This could backfire. Some of the more, not necessarily "100% backers" of the President might say he won, so I do not have to bother voting.

Mitt has them right where he wants them!
Ohio early voting-both parties well under the 30% level, for either candidate.
The rest? Over 40% of the total vote?
Independents
Neither side knows how they voted, but chances are greater they voted for Romney rather than Obama.
Democratic strategists in every state admit early voting percent leads for the President are down anywhere from 5 to 10% from leads he held over McCain in 2008.
They also acknowledge Republican voter strength is stronger the day of the polls than the Democrats.
Forget the polls. They do not look as accurate as previous years.

VB. this post is an exact repeat of 2008. The polls arnt accurate.

Yes they are! Most polls in swing states HAVE been favorable to Obama. How can you blame the media for reporting that??

[Value Buy]

Nov 4, 2012 10:55:43 GMT -5 usaone said:

Nov 4, 2012 9:29:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, pulling all stops, promoting any poll advancing the President a lead. Everyone loves to vote for a winner, and they know this, so, make the President look like he is winning.
This could backfire. Some of the more, not necessarily "100% backers" of the President might say he won, so I do not have to bother voting.

Mitt has them right where he wants them!
Ohio early voting-both parties well under the 30% level, for either candidate.
The rest? Over 40% of the total vote?
Independents
Neither side knows how they voted, but chances are greater they voted for Romney rather than Obama.
Democratic strategists in every state admit early voting percent leads for the President are down anywhere from 5 to 10% from leads he held over McCain in 2008.
They also acknowledge Republican voter strength is stronger the day of the polls than the Democrats.
Forget the polls. They do not look as accurate as previous years.

VB. this post is an exact repeat of 2008. The polls arnt accurate.

Yes they are! Most polls in swing states HAVE been favorable to Obama. How can you blame the media for reporting that??

I blame them because they use the polls to show what they want to happen.
The voters who wait til the last second to decide are the ones who want to vote for the winner, thus making the election outcome a decision made by major media.

[Value Buy]

Nov 4, 2012 9:54:59 GMT -5 iono1 said:

Nov 4, 2012 9:29:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, pulling all stops, promoting any poll advancing the President a lead. Everyone loves to vote for a winner, and they know this, so, make the President look like he is winning.
This could backfire. Some of the more, not necessarily "100% backers" of the President might say he won, so I do not have to bother voting.

Mitt has them right where he wants them!
Ohio early voting-both parties well under the 30% level, for either candidate.
The rest? Over 40% of the total vote?
Independents
Neither side knows how they voted, but chances are greater they voted for Romney rather than Obama.
Democratic strategists in every state admit early voting percent leads for the President are down anywhere from 5 to 10% from leads he held over McCain in 2008.
They also acknowledge Republican voter strength is stronger the day of the polls than the Democrats.
Forget the polls. They do not look as accurate as previous years.

Your last line says it all: English translation-I look at the polls, I know Romney can't win the electoral vote, but I'm the captain of this thread and I'm going down with the ship.
The biggest problem you have in your assumptions is that you think those 40% independents are really independent. I have no party affiliation because when I 1st started voting in the 1970s I was right down the middle, voting equally R & D so I didn't want to affiliate with either. That later shifted more to the R side. As the Rs moved to the far right, I virtually stopped voting R. I now vote over 90% D and if I was forced to register for 1 party I'd choose the Democratic party. I just choose not to. Independents are not really independent. I'm a virtual Democrat. Most independents vote mainly for 1 party. In order to accurately evaluate the independent vote, you really have to know which party the independents in a state actually vote for. Here's a good example: My relatives in California are all independents, but they would slit their wrists rather than vote for Romney.
Your posts reminds me of when I watch football. If my team is down 10 points with a minute to go and they get the ball 1st & 10 on their own 20, I'm rooting in my heart for them to get a quick touchdown, get an onside kick, and then either get another quick touchdown and win the game or get a field goal to tie and win in overtime. However, in my head, I know that my team, the Buffalo Bills, will not pull off the miracle finish. Mitt Romney is your Buffalo Bills.

Primary voters in Ohio, must declare their party and vote for that ticket.
If you do not vote in the primary, and vote in the fall, you are considered an independent.
I do not have the spring primary vote for Ohio. It is quite possible the majority of Dems did not vote in the primary, as the President was the only one listed on the ticket.
We shall see on Tuesday night.

Incidentlly, please look where Mitt and Barack are spending the day on Monday and Tuesday.
Colorado and Nevada are not in the mix.
It is all New Hampshire (a surprise to me) Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida and Virginia.
It is now about protecting your turf the last two days.
Evidently, Pennsylvania has come into play.

[Deleted]

Pennsylvania is not in play.

[Value Buy]

Romney must know something then.
Why waste time there, and just spend the day in Ohio instead?

[usaone]

I live in Pa. It is NOT in play. It's a Hail Mary just like 2008.

[Angel!]

Nov 4, 2012 9:29:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Independents
Neither side knows how they voted, but chances are greater they voted for Romney rather than Obama.

Pssst...your bias is showing.

[lynnerself]

Value Buy
Forget the polls. They do not look as accurate as previous years.

What data do you have to support this other than wishful thinking?

[usaone]

Nov 4, 2012 11:37:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Romney must know something then.
Why waste time there, and just spend the day in Ohio instead?

Why did McCain jump into Pa at the last minute just as Romney has??

[mmhmm]

I blame them because they use the polls to show what they want to happen.

And you use your imagination to show what you want to happen. What's the difference?

[Deleted]

PA has no/very little early voting. So its a fair last ditch effort state. Conceivably, more people still COULD be convinced to change their vote, since they haven't voted yet... It also gives the team something positive to dream about... hey, we're going to take PA ! ...

Not...

[djAdvocate]

Nov 4, 2012 9:50:03 GMT -5 jkscott said:

There will be a surge. Its going to be terrific. One more day!

there are only two possible surges. one is a surge of fraud which i hope we won't see. the second is a surge of disbelief on the part of Republicans who seem to think they have it in the basket.

edit: those surges are not mutually exclusive.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 4, 2012 11:13:04 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Nov 4, 2012 10:55:43 GMT -5 usaone said:

VB. this post is an exact repeat of 2008. The polls arnt accurate.

Yes they are! Most polls in swing states HAVE been favorable to Obama. How can you blame the media for reporting that??

I blame them because they use the polls to show what they want to happen.

no. they report the polls that are out there, 90% of which show the same exact thing.

The voters who wait til the last second to decide are the ones who want to vote for the winner, thus making the election outcome a decision made by major media.

there is no evidence that there is a large undecided vote in this election. but just as a thought experiment: are you considering voting Obama?

[djAdvocate]

Nov 4, 2012 11:37:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Romney must know something then.
Why waste time there, and just spend the day in Ohio instead?

for the same reason that Obama continues to pour resources into Florida. it is strategic. if you pull out of a state, like Romney has done in MI, then Obama doesn't need to campaign there any more, and he can really hand you your lunch in places like Ohio.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 4, 2012 14:50:33 GMT -5 oped said:

PA has no/very little early voting. So its a fair last ditch effort state. Conceivably, more people still COULD be convinced to change their vote, since they haven't voted yet... It also gives the team something positive to dream about... hey, we're going to take PA ! ...

Not...

PA is a very slow moving electorate. if a candidate is leading by 5% there, it won't change in a week, unless something really dramatic happens. it takes months. NH is another matter. they are quite fickle. that is why i didn't rule out the idea that Romney could win there until a couple of days ago.