Less than 15 hours to go and we shall......

[djAdvocate]

well, here is how it breaks down.

in states where Obama leads by more than 3%, we have 253EV
in states where Romney leads by more than 3%, we have 191EV

the remaining states are:

NC
FL
VA
CO
NH
OH
IA

if we concede IA to Obama and NC to Romney, that leaves:

Obama 259
Romney 206

this is about where everyone puts them right now.
if Obama wins EITHER Ohio, Virginia, or Florida, he wins.
Romney has to win ALL THREE PLUS one of the others to win.

this is a pretty clear illustration of why Obama is the heavy favourite.
538 just moved him to 80.8% likely to win, which is at his pre-debate high,
and his best result since October 7th.

[Value Buy]

Re:message 626
Mitt has him right where he wants him
I guarantee Mitt wins Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

One group of voters have totally been ignored this year so far.
The Evangelicals.

They basically stayed home in 2008.
They are alive and well this year, and to the Dem's surprise, they are backing a Mormon.
Look for a couple of states to actually break to Romney that are predicted for Obama.

[Tennesseer]

My Take: Billy Graham and Ralph Reed are putting politics before God

I see a parallel story playing out this election season with the religious right.

Until quite recently, many evangelicals saw Mormonism as a dangerous cult spreading false theology and dooming its followers to hell. In fact, only after Romney showed up for a meet and greet with Billy Graham in North Carolina earlier this month did the website of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association erase a reference to Mormonism as a “cult."

Did Mormons all of a sudden change their theology? Did Graham change his definition of a “cult”? Of course not. It just became politically expedient for Graham to declassify Mormonism, given the fact that Romney, a Mormon, was the presidential nominee of his beloved GOP.

religion.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/01/my-take-billy-graham-and-ralph-reed-are-putting-politics-before-god/

[djAdvocate]

Nov 1, 2012 22:44:02 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Re:message 626
Mitt has him right where he wants him
I guarantee Mitt wins Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

One group of voters have totally been ignored this year so far.
The Evangelicals.

They basically stayed home in 2008.
They are alive and well this year, and to the Dem's surprise, they are backing a Mormon.
Look for a couple of states to actually break to Romney that are predicted for Obama.

VA and FL would not be any surprise at all. Ohio would. i will give you 4:1 odds on Ohio.

[djAdvocate]

ok, i think it is over. i am cutting the window down to 2%, based on the elasticity of the several states, the amount of time remaining. that leaves only (4) swing states: Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado. those total 55 votes, which when added to Romney's total gives him 261, which is 9 less than he needs.

unless something absolutely devastating happens to Obama in the next 4 days, this thing is over. even if something does, it takes TIME for people to react to news, and i think that within the next couple of days, even the "devastating news" window will close on Romney.

Romney made some strategic blunders in the late stage of the game which was really surprising. even before his big debate victory, he pulled resources out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and PA. and he didn't reinstate them when he had the momentum. deploying "the Kraken" 3 weeks later is just lame. but he never was all that great of a campaigner.

in the end, it was Romney's own weaknesses that did him in: his failure to think nationally, to avoid alienating people, and to bridge gaps in his organization to form meaningful alliances that could have helped him. as i said before, he made it far closer than i thought he would. but the thing he needed MOST to happen: another serious downturn- did not materialize. instead, the steady improvement in the economy was probably enough, all on it's own to save Obama (just as it was for Bush in 2004).

for those of you that had a lot of emotional investment in Romney, i am sorry. i really do feel your pain. nobody was more disappointed than i was in 2004 when Kerry let the Swift Boat arseholes to torpedo his campaign, while he took the high road, thinking he had it won. i guess it must be something with bluebloods- that they figure that God is on their side or something, and relax when they should push back. Romney reminds me a lot of Kerry in terms of his wooden personality and his flip floppyness. and he is going to have the same fate, imo. he did well to stay in this race, against a weak candidate, but it won't be enough, imo.

i don't really know how much Obama will win by: at least 18 EV, as of right now- perhaps as much as 70. likely it will be around 50.

Obama: 277-332
Romney: 261-206

[Value Buy]

Four days to go!
Employee job creation was released this morning 180,000 plus jobs created!
Government jobs down about 12,000.
Nice to see the Government trend is continueing, but I imagine most of the job losses are at state and local level rather than federal level

Question: with job creation up, why did the unemployment rate increase 1/10th of a percent?
This makes no sense to me.

Nice set of numbers, but will it help the President at the polls?

[Value Buy]

As we get down to election day, I have to wonder why the number of posts at P&M seem to drop.
Has everyone lost interest, ot given up on Obama?

Mittmentumn is everywhere!

[TonyTiger]

Somehow, I seriously doubt that last-minute employment figures do anything whatsoever to influence anybody to vote one way or another.

It is the long-standing 'trend' and the current 'perception' that signifies.

If employment figures have been trending steadily upwards and if you and your friends and family and neighbors are employed, you may very well vote one way.

If not, you may very well vote another way.

But I cannot imagine a single soul waiting until the very last minute to form his-or-her impressions about same, based upon figures being published one or two business days before the general election.

[resolution]

The unemployment rate rose largely because 578,000 people entered the workforce. That helped push the participation rate, a measure of the portion of the population in the labor force, up two tenths of a point to 63.8 percent.

Barring a sharp acceleration in hiring, the report could reinforce the idea that a full recovery from the 2007-09 recession remains distant. The jobless rate, which peaked during the recession at 10 percent, remains about 3 percentage points above its pre-recession level.

www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/economy-creates-more-jobs-expected-jobless-rate-edges-1C6828418

[iono1]

Nov 2, 2012 8:42:31 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

As we get down to election day, I have to wonder why the number of posts at P&M seem to drop.
Has everyone lost interest, ot given up on Obama?

Mittmentumn is everywhere!

There was this thing called Hurricane Sandy that caused people to focus on something other than the election.

Also, we Obama supporters are convinced that as long as we go out and vote, he will be re-elected. No need to keep arguing with the delusional Romney supporters.

[b2r]

9 Year Old Brandon Says;
"If Obama Doesn't Win We Will Go Back To Picking Crops"



Well, there you have it, we have to send him back now!

[mmhmm]

Nice to see the Government trend is continueing, but I imagine most of the job losses are at state and local level rather than federal level

What you imagine isn't particularly important. Can you cite any references that indicate your imaginings are based on anything solid?

[deziloooooo]

Just caught this endorsement of Obama from New York City Mayor, a independent now..formerly Republican, Bloomberg. Unlike the normal endorsement which rarely criticizes ..this one does cal Obama out on issues ..many I agree with..things he could have done better..I never said the guy has no faults ..never claimed he could walk on water..

Bloomberg also critiques Romney and why now, vs in the past..he can't support him where as in the past he could have and those remarks , for me, hit it right on the nail head.

There are some who will criticize Bloomberg and I am sure he has many faults ..but he is a proven business man..very, very successful..how many Billionaires do you have in public service and sure, IMHO,doesn't needs this job..

Mayor of the largest city in our country , definitely one of the most diverse in population in the world when you consider the diverse cultures in large #'s who live there..and culture..one of the most vocal in letting the ones in charge know whats on their mind..and one of the most important cities in the world in prestige and influence and clout..not a easy job.


Know faced with a monumental rebuilding job..as large as anything experienced I believe in our recent past..I am thinking New orleons..Katrina..San Francisco, the last large earth quake..the six Hurricanes in a row in Florida..even the BP spill in the Gulf. Due to the population density , the infrastructure..hundred plus year old subways and tunnels now under water and all the electrical being affected by salt water..a hell of a job , so his endorsement..I feel a bit above the normal one given out by politicians or other politicians..IMHO of course.

www.courant.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bloombergbre8a01g3-20121101,0,888448.story
==================
Bloomberg endorses Obama for a second term

New York Mayor Bloomberg endorses President Obama for second term (Jim Young/Reuters / November 1, 2012)

4:23 p.m. EDT, November 1, 2012

(Reuters) -

" New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Thursday endorsed President Barack Obama for a second term, citing the importance of his record on climate change, particularly in the aftermath of the devastating blow dealt to the New York area by storm Sandy.

Bloomberg said Obama has taken significant steps to reduce carbon consumption, whereas Republican challenger Mitt Romney has backtracked on earlier positions he had taken as governor of Massachusetts to battle climate change.

"Our climate is changing," Bloomberg wrote in an opinion article for Bloomberg View, a section of Bloomberg News.

"And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be - given this week's devastation - should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action."

Obama is locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Romney, and the endorsement came just five days before Tuesday's election.

The nod from Bloomberg, a Republican turned independent, comes after Obama won praise from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican, for his quick reaction to the storm."

Click on link above to read complete article

[b2r]

Clinton: "I may be the only person in America, but
I am far more enthusiastic about President Obama this time,
than I was four years ago"

Yep! I think you're the only one!



Four more days!
Four More Days!!
FOUR MORE DAYS!!!

[b2r]

Biden: "There's Never Been A Day In The Last Four Years
I've Been Proud To Be His Vice President...
Not One Single Day...Not One Single Day!"



America! Make it stop...It Hurts!

[djAdvocate]

Nov 2, 2012 8:42:31 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

As we get down to election day, I have to wonder why the number of posts at P&M seem to drop.
Has everyone lost interest, ot given up on Obama?

Mittmentumn is everywhere!

have you considered boredom?

[djAdvocate]

Nov 2, 2012 12:34:09 GMT -5 b2r said:

Clinton: "I may be the only person in America, but
I am far more enthusiastic about President Obama this time,
than I was four years ago"

Yep! I think you're the only one!

as usual, you would be wrong. i viewed Obama of four years ago as totally naiive about how much entrenchment was in DC. this Obama has no such illusions of "bringing folks together". he has not really even talked about it. and Romney is a fool to think otherwise. we don't need another two years of someone spinning their wheels and playing footsy, imo.

[b2r]

Message deleted by mmhmm. Insulting other posters isn't necessary, b2r. Neither are childish pictures of foolish things.

[Value Buy]

Nov 2, 2012 11:29:24 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Nice to see the Government trend is continuing, but I imagine most of the job losses are at state and local level rather than federal level

What you imagine isn't particularly important. Can you cite any references that indicate your imaginings are based on anything solid?

I honestly do not believe some of your comebacks at times.
What anyone "imagines" is important. That is a Democracy in action.
We chose how we vote on our imagination and beliefs of events
It is always about semantics.
Please note, I was not being political in nature on the jobs picture. Heck, I was impressed with the number.
It has been widely recognized in business media for months, job losses have been occurring at the Government level lately, mostly on the local and state level due to these state government entities must actually work off a balanced budget in most states.

[Value Buy]

My imagination sees a Romney win next week........

[djAdvocate]

Nov 2, 2012 17:39:27 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

My imagination sees a Romney win next week........

you have a fertile imagination.

[usaone]

Nov 2, 2012 8:40:45 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Four days to go!
Employee job creation was released this morning 180,000 plus jobs created!
Government jobs down about 12,000.
Nice to see the Government trend is continueing, but I imagine most of the job losses are at state and local level rather than federal level

Question: with job creation up, why did the unemployment rate increase 1/10th of a percent?
This makes no sense to me.

Nice set of numbers, but will it help the President at the polls?

How could it NOT help the President??

Just looked at today's state polls. Votes continue to drift towards Obama.

[Tennesseer]

Message deleted by mmhmm. Refers to a post that has been deleted.

[djAdvocate]

i don't think NH is a swing state any more. i now give Obama that state:

Obama: 281-332
Romney: 257-206

i really don't think Mitt has much of a chance in VA or CO, either- but we shall see.
if he loses both, that gives Obama 303, and Mitt 235, which seems like a likely outcome.
i think there is still a chance that Obama will win Florida, but it is still barely Romney
as of this post.

[Value Buy]

Virginia?
You gotta be kidding.
dj, Virginia is all Romney.

[Value Buy]

Nov 3, 2012 11:08:15 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Ohio continues to trend to Obama. Not just the overall total, but also all of the specific metrics.

Not really.
Early voting totals in Ohio, show more Republicans have voted than Democrats.
Four years ago the Dems held about a 90,000 vote lead by now over the Republicans.
This year there has been a 150,000 vote swing.
Unless the Republicans are voting for the President, the bloom is off the rose, so to speak.

[Gardening Grandma]

In any event, Ohio is looking really good for the President.

[usaone]

Nov 3, 2012 11:15:34 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Nov 3, 2012 11:08:15 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Ohio continues to trend to Obama. Not just the overall total, but also all of the specific metrics.

Not really.
Early voting totals in Ohio, show more Republicans have voted than Democrats.
Four years ago the Dems held about a 90,000 vote lead by now over the Republicans.
This year there has been a 150,000 vote swing.
Unless the Republicans are voting for the President, the bloom is off the rose, so to speak.

The polls include the early voting metric. Repeating talking points from Television isn't helping.

[usaone]

Virginia is leaning Obama according to RealClear and Nate Silver.

Florida is all Romney though.

[Deleted]

Watching "Judgement at Nuremberg", am impressed by how strongly Mitt Romney resembles Maximilian Schell

www.imdb.com/name/nm0001703/