Short Apple AAPL

[Small Biz Owner]

The company has lost it's visionary leader. The Edison of our time. Without him as pilot I think it will simply drift away.

[rovo]

The shares of AAPL are, in my opinion, extremely under valued at this point. Shorting AAPL could be an interesting play but I suggest you proceed with caution on such a play. AAPL will announce earnings on October 18th and I expect very, very good results.

Disclosure: I am currently long Apple.

[usaone]

I am long Apple too.

Lots of products in the pipeline.

[Virgil Showlion]

Where was it that I read AAPL's iPhone 5 release was hailed a "flop" by the masses? Slightly faster chip. Voice recognition.

It drew rare criticism from the bloggers.

AAPL's current stock price is based on their (frankly insane) revenues over the past two years. But Android is catching up, Apple is quickly running out of bells and whistles that people will shell out $300+ to upgrade for, and I don't see them sustaining their current sales.

Or in other words, I don't think Biz's play is as foolhardy as you do.

[rovo]

Or in other words, I don't think Biz's play is as foolhardy as you do.

I don't recall anyone but you using the word "foolhardy". I just advised caution because Apple is an extremely strong company with a loyal bunch of users.

[Steady As She Goes]

too funny

#headbang#

[Small Biz Owner]

AAPL will follow the same path as most other one person led visionary companies without the founder. Mary Kay Cosmetics without Mary Kay Ash, now a shadow of it's former self. Same problem, same results.

[rovo]

Oct 7, 2011 5:43:38 GMT -5 Small Biz Owner said:

AAPL will follow the same path as most other one person led visionary companies without the founder. Mary Kay Cosmetics without Mary Kay Ash, now a shadow of it's former self. Same problem, same results.

Maybe, maybe not. If you believe what you said, then jump in there and short the hell out of it.

[Small Biz Owner]

Maybe, maybe not. If you believe what you said, then jump in there and short the hell out of it.

Did that yesterday.

The fact of the matter is that there were portable music devices mainly the Walkman, but it took Steve Jobs vision to change that device.

There were smart Cell phones before the I Phone, it took Steve Jobs to revolutionize that device.

There were tablet computers before the I Pad. Again it took Jobs to revolutionize that device.

Maybe you have forgotten how far Apple fell the first time Steve Jobs was gone? And how far it ascended upon his return?

[Small Biz Owner]

The first time Steve Jobs left Apple, in 1985, he was fired. In short, his partners in upper management and the board of directors at that time did not share Jobs' vision for Apple.

The six-year period 1992 to 1997 clearly depicts the ultimate consequences of Apple’s fateful decision. Earnings per share were on a steady downward trajectory from $1.08 per share in 1992 to losses in 1996 and 1997.

This is what happended the last time Jobs was away from Apple.

Unless he had his future visions already recorded for the next few rounds of products, I doubt that the company will continue it's stellar performance.

[Virgil Showlion]

I've long begrudged the fact that Mr. Jobs' "vision" was seemingly predicated on the rule that people as a whole are simpletons. Let's face it, the philosophy that set Apple apart from its competitors were/are:

• simple, simple, simple and more simple. Minimal interface. Limited controls and options (at the expense of reduced configurability). No-hassle out-of-the-box a-few-sizes-fit-all simplicity.
  
  
• graphics, graphics, graphics. Big pretty icons for everything.
  
  
• people will buy anything (again and again and again) if a company is "cool" enough. Market products as avant garde, "magical", "revolutionary", jack up the price, grant customers a pretentious sense of sophistication, and they'll buy anything.
  
  
• "I'm a Mac and I'm a PC"—nobody cares about technical specs. Average Joe consumer: Make 'em laugh, make 'em feel special, make 'em feel like a part of a prescient minority, they're yours for the taking.
  
  
• people are lazy; people are easily confused. Design accordingly.

Profitable as this philosophy may be, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in our fellow human beings.

[rovo]

Virgil, I strongly suggest you get out of academia for a while and spend some time in the real world. ;D

[Virgil Showlion]

*sigh* Maybe you're right.

I first suspected I was out of touch with my fellow man when the 24-hour news cycle began covering how US presidential candidates eat their corn dogs.

[Deleted]

Oct 7, 2011 10:13:09 GMT -5 rovo said:

Virgil, I strongly suggest you get out of academia for a while and spend some time in the real world. ;D

Seriously. We just upgraded the computer of someone in the office from Windows XP to WIN7. You'd think she's never seen a computer before. It is like starting from day one with training her how to use 7.

[usaone]

Oct 7, 2011 9:59:43 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

I've long begrudged the fact that Mr. Jobs' "vision" was seemingly predicated on the rule that people as a whole are simpletons. Let's face it, the philosophy that set Apple apart from its competitors were/are:

• simple, simple, simple and more simple. Minimal interface. Limited controls and options (at the expense of reduced configurability). No-hassle out-of-the-box a-few-sizes-fit-all simplicity.
  
  
• graphics, graphics, graphics. Big pretty icons for everything.
  
  
• people will buy anything (again and again and again) if a company is "cool" enough. Market products as avant garde, "magical", "revolutionary", jack up the price, grant customers a pretentious sense of sophistication, and they'll buy anything.
  
  
• "I'm a Mac and I'm a PC"—nobody cares about technical specs. Average Joe consumer: Make 'em laugh, make 'em feel special, make 'em feel like a part of a prescient minority, they're yours for the taking.
  
  
• people are lazy; people are easily confused. Design accordingly.

Profitable as this philosophy may be, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in our fellow human beings.

Limited options? Are you kidding?

Nothing wrong with simple and efficient.

Apple provided a product that people wanted. The great products creates the cool factor.

[Virgil Showlion]

Limited options? Are you kidding?

Absolutely not. On any product Apple makes, they completely insulate the user from advanced/complex settings. Third-party extensions and applications for their computers are virtually nonexistent. They make two models of tablet PC, two models of iPhone, (soon to be) three models of iPod, three laptop models, six tower/box/all-in-one PC models, and a handful of peripherals and extensions.

Nothing wrong with simple and efficient.

No. But the same can be said about Fisher Price.

[rovo]

Oct 7, 2011 12:25:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Limited options? Are you kidding?

Absolutely not. On any product Apple makes, they completely insulate the user from advanced/complex settings. Third-party extensions and applications for their computers are virtually nonexistent. They make two models of tablet PC, two models of iPhone, (soon to be) three models of iPod, three laptop models, six tower/box/all-in-one PC models, and a handful of peripherals and extensions.

Nothing wrong with simple and efficient.

No. But the same can be said about Fisher Price.

Virgil, You are looking at their products as tools instead of functional devices. The Apple products do a superb job at doing what they were designed to do. How many people really want to get inside their computers to do something for which it was not intended? 1 in 5K, 1 in 10K?

I've never used Apple computers for the reasons stated by Virgil. I used personal computers for many things on the factory floor by adding specific cards and software or writing software to do a specific task.

The iPhones have a huge number of apps to allow the phone to do many things. This is actually a departure from the previous philosophy of a closed system.

[Virgil Showlion]

The iPhones have a huge number of apps to allow the phone to do many things. This is actually a departure from the previous philosophy of a closed system.

It's also one of the things that Apple didn't do particularly well, helping Android gain ground.

In terms of developer power, transparency, and ease of access, Android beats iOS hands down. Additionally, Apple vets/censors all apps before putting them in their store. Not so for Android.

Apple was a follower rather than a leader when it comes to open architectures, and it shows.

[Virgil Showlion]

As the techies see it—and as was my point above—the public's inability to use the complex "stuff" is their handicap. There is such a thing as too simple.

[usaone]

The public doesnt want complex. Its an appliance.

[rovo]

The market speaks !!!!

Apple says iPhone 4S pre-orders break record .... 10:41a ET October 10, 2011 (MarketWatch) SAN FRANCISCO

Apple Inc. said Monday that pre-orders of its newly announced iPhone 4S topped the 1 million mark in a single day -- easily surpassing the previous record set by the iPhone 4 last summer.

Apple first announced the iPhone 4S at a special event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters last Tuesday -- one day before the death of co-founder and Chairman Steve Jobs. The company's shares took a hit following the unveiling of the new device, which carries the same exterior design of the iPhone 4 but with a faster processor and new software capabilities. Read full story on iPhone 4S.

The company's shares jumped 3.8% to $383.75 in morning trades on Monday. In a statement before the opening bell, Apple said pre-orders for the 4S topped the 600,000 received on the first day for the iPhone 4, which has been the company's best-selling iPhone to date.

The iPhone 4S becomes available for shipping Oct. 14.

Part of the appeal for the new device may lie in its relatively late launch compared to previous iPhone models. Apple has typically updated the device in the summer months, but the newest model will hit stores 15 months after the iPhone 4 first went on sale.

"Despite initial disappointments at the lack of a new hardware form factor, data suggest the iPhone 4S is capturing pent-up demand for a new iPhone and benefiting from the replacement cycle of 3GS customers from two years ago," wrote Bill Choi of Janney Capital Markets in a note to clients on Monday morning.

Choi also speculated that "there could be modest benefit from sentiment-related purchases after the death of Steve Jobs (anecdotal store traffics are up), but we believe the iPhone 4S offers superior functionality/value and expect demand to remain strong."

Late Friday, wireless carrier AT&T Inc. said that its own pre-orders for the 4S topped the 200,000 mark. The phone will also be available in the U.S. via Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel Corp. , though neither of those carriers have publicly disclosed pre-orders for the device.

As Wall Street rallied to begin the week, shares of both AT&T and Verizon Communications were up about 1.4% in early trading, while Sprint Nextel shares moved down about 3% to $2.34.

[rovo]

Let us keep track of the "short Apple" comment made on 06 Oct. The highest price for APPL on 06 Oct. was $384.78, so this will be the price at which the stock was shorted. Using the highest price is in the OP's favor.

Current price = $383.35. Gain/Loss from short = +0.38%.

[rovo]

Oct 10, 2011 10:39:11 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

shouldn't that be -0.38%?

The stock price is down by 0.38% but if the stock was shorted, then your current gain would be +0.38%. My label clearly states: "Gain/Loss from short"

[usaone]

Apple at 385.00

[usaone]

Oct 9, 2011 20:16:55 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

As the techies see it—and as was my point above—the public's inability to use the complex "stuff" is their handicap. There is such a thing as too simple.

There is such a thing as too simple?

I would have to disagree.

[Small Biz Owner]

I will just repeat my previous post

Apple will decline, it may take a few months or a year or so, but the rocket engine (aka Steve Jobs) has left the building.

Quote:The first time Steve Jobs left Apple, in 1985, he was fired. In short, his partners in upper management and the board of directors at that time did not share Jobs' vision for Apple.

Quote:The six-year period 1992 to 1997 clearly depicts the ultimate consequences of Apple’s fateful decision. Earnings per share were on a steady downward trajectory from $1.08 per share in 1992 to losses in 1996 and 1997.

This is what happended the last time Jobs was away from Apple.

Unless he had his future visions already recorded for the next few rounds of products, I doubt that the company will continue it's stellar performance.

[Deleted]

Shorting APPL is a ballsy call

I agree they may have some issues without their leader, but this company has proven me wrong so many times, i refuse to bet AGAINST them

I wouldnt buy at these levels....but selling short? Gonads of steel

[rovo]

Oct 10, 2011 11:56:00 GMT -5 Small Biz Owner said:

I will just repeat my previous post

Apple will decline, it may take a few months or a year or so, but the rocket engine (aka Steve Jobs) has left the building.

OK. So maybe I was misled by the title of this thread as it says "Short AAPL". If you are saying that sometime in the future it may be a good play to short AAPL then I may agree with you. It would also be a good play to short the entire market ... sometime in the future. The question needing to be answered, in order to make a profitable trade, is just exactly when in the future?

[usaone]

Apple up 5.2%

[Virgil Showlion]

Good on Apple on their sales, although I don't have a position in AAPL or any of their competitors. Why so many people are shelling out for a near-identical clone of the iPhone four is beyond me.

wxyz: my comments are "elitist" in a sense. From my standpoint, Apple products are too simple. They've cut out too much, the applications are too basic, the computers are too static for my tastes. As a consumer, this puts me in a "techie" minority. I'm fully aware of that fact. But it doesn't stop me from wishing that more people preferred interfaces, programs, APIs, etc. with greater sophistication so that the features I want would become more mainstream.

Elitist, yes. But I believe if people were willing to accept a bit of a learning curve, they can rise to master a more powerful device rather than accepting Apple's Fisher Price mentality. The medium is the message, as Marshall McCluhen so aptly pointed out, and Apple's medium is an anathema to those of us who see people's collective intelligence already being undersold.