Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Oct 24, 2011 8:10:19 GMT -5
Rovo, sure there is a market for them. But considering the economic times there is a bigger market for the cheaper following ...
Google Phone. Microsoft Phone.
and
Amazon
This all reminds me of the Expensive Sony Betamax and cheaper VHS wars so many years ago.
Expensive Sony = Expensive Apple
We all know how that all turned out.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Oct 24, 2011 8:45:48 GMT -5
Well there are certainly differences of opinion about Apple Inc. and the outlook for their future. Bringing up the strong points and the weak points is what analysis is all about. I'm still very bullish on AAPL at this time. Will I always be bullish on them? Probably not. It is for me a stock play based upon what I see in the short term and I will unload my position when I think they have maxed out the share price. It may be at the end of this year or years in the future. I'm holding common shares with a cost of $350.50 and Call Options which expire in January. The options have an exercise price of $450 and are currently selling for less than I paid for them.
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Oct 26, 2011 8:22:06 GMT -5
There is my prediction coming to the markets. You are seeing the leading edge of Apple sales. Ipods were replaced by other MP3 players. IPhone and IPads sales to follow downwards as competition heats up and prices fall.
Reminds me of the Sony Betamax and VHS wars. Sony tried to keep it all to themselves, like Apple is doing now, but were replaced in the end by the less expensive VHS.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Oct 26, 2011 18:22:45 GMT -5
There is my prediction coming to the markets. You are seeing the leading edge of Apple sales. Ipods were replaced by other MP3 players. IPhone and IPads sales to follow downwards as competition heats up and prices fall. I'm not so sure iPods are being replaced with other MP3 players of non-Apple origin. I'm sure you are aware that every iPhone has an iPod incorporated into it. Why carry two devices when you can carry one? As soon as my son enters his car he plugs his iPhone in and his play-list comes through the cars stereo system. His wife just plugs the earphones into her iPhone when she is out jogging and listens to her favorite tunes.
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Nov 18, 2011 6:02:57 GMT -5
Rovo, MP3 phones are not just an Apple product.
Mp3 players are also found in the Droid X, Samsung Epic 4G, HTC EVO 4G, 3GS 8GB, LG Quantum, Samsung Continuum, Droid Incredible, HTC Surround & BlackBerry. And more to come I am sure.
Many are much cheaper than Apple products, and some have more features.
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Nov 18, 2011 6:09:19 GMT -5
Has Apple peaked?
Apple 426 Oct 21st
Apple 377 Nov 17th
Without Jobs at the helm it's all downhill from here.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Nov 18, 2011 10:53:37 GMT -5
Rovo, MP3 phones are not just an Apple product. Mp3 players are also found in the Droid X, Samsung Epic 4G, HTC EVO 4G, 3GS 8GB, LG Quantum, Samsung Continuum, Droid Incredible, HTC Surround & BlackBerry. And more to come I am sure. Many are much cheaper than Apple products, and some have more features. I agree 100%. The iPod was a fine product but it is at "end of life" because its functions are now included in "smart phones". I don't see a product such as the iPod as a failure because it is now obsolete. It made a ton of money for Apple while it was a viable product. The iPhone4s still has a 1 week + for delivery. My thoughts on some of Virgil's comments. a) The iPhones are being sold in more and more countries as the supply chain catches up with demand. You mentioned previously about every person in the USA needing to buy one in order to make or beat the sales expectations. World-wide, the volumes are tiny compared to potential buyers. b) In reference to apps, I wouldn't want an app running on any device I use that was not approved and verified by the company making the phone. There are too many opportunities to hack into the users phone for gray apps. Many people do banking and other financial transactions via their phone and, as such, the apps need to be secure. c) My interviews with iPhone4s users indicate they are extremely pleased with the new phone. The SIRI interface works nicely and is ideal for a businessman in the field to fire off memos via either texting or email as well as making "notes to self" for further action.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 18, 2011 14:24:18 GMT -5
You could be right about a and c, rovo. We couldn't disagree more on b.
I fall to a Franklinesque philosophy "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety" not only when it comes to tyranny, but to software "approval". Already I know my favourite cartoonist, Mark Fiore, was denied permission to launch his political cartoon app on iPhone because it "mocked or denigrated political figures", which was a no-no.
Not to mention that some of the most destructive viruses and rootkits in history have been deployed on "vetted" software being distributed by reputable dealers.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Nov 20, 2011 9:43:11 GMT -5
In support of my previous post I offer the following article: Android malware problems continue to grow .... By Matt Liebowitz
New report cites 472 percent increase in malware since July
TEASER: There's an alarming amount of malicious software targeting Google's Android smartphone platform, but experts say the problem will only get worse until a large share of Android customers experience firsthand the frustration, inconvenience and damage the malware can cause.
"Android malware is growing at an exponential rate, but until a large and significant user base is affected by malware, I fear we won't see any major changes in user behavior," Tim Armstrong, malware researcher for the anti-virus firm Kaspersky Lab, told SecurityNewsDaily.
Chester Wisniewski, senior security advisor with Sophos, put the issue in terms nearly every smartphone customer can relate to: "Most consumers don't care until they get their first $1,000 phone bill because their pirated Angry Birds has been calling Estonia all month." Remainder of the article at: www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45345981/ns/technology_and_science-security/t/android-malware-problems-continue-grow/
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Nov 21, 2011 6:24:57 GMT -5
And Apple has no problems either?
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 21, 2011 10:12:21 GMT -5
So, to state the contrapositive... a small and insignificant number of Android users is currently affected by malware. And the problem is so dire that experts are waiting, watching, hoping for it to grow to the point where people actually care enough to do something about it.
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Nov 21, 2011 13:35:07 GMT -5
Has Apple peaked?
Apple 426 Oct 21st
Apple 377 Nov 17th
Apple 366 Nov 21st
Now I am in the money on my short position.
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Nov 21, 2011 13:37:21 GMT -5
Whatever you say USA1.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Nov 21, 2011 13:42:38 GMT -5
I'm not selling today.
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sowhatisit
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Post by sowhatisit on Nov 22, 2011 0:29:12 GMT -5
In support of my previous post I offer the following article: Android malware problems continue to grow .... By Matt Liebowitz
New report cites 472 percent increase in malware since July
TEASER: There's an alarming amount of malicious software targeting Google's Android smartphone platform, but experts say the problem will only get worse until a large share of Android customers experience firsthand the frustration, inconvenience and damage the malware can cause.
"Android malware is growing at an exponential rate, but until a large and significant user base is affected by malware, I fear we won't see any major changes in user behavior," Tim Armstrong, malware researcher for the anti-virus firm Kaspersky Lab, told SecurityNewsDaily.
Chester Wisniewski, senior security advisor with Sophos, put the issue in terms nearly every smartphone customer can relate to: "Most consumers don't care until they get their first $1,000 phone bill because their pirated Angry Birds has been calling Estonia all month." Remainder of the article at: www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45345981/ns/technology_and_science-security/t/android-malware-problems-continue-grow/that is amazing. good info there.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Nov 23, 2011 10:02:45 GMT -5
UPDATE: China Overtakes US As World's Biggest Smartphone Market .... 8:50a ET November 23, 2011 (Dow Jones)
--China smartphone market grows on the back of cheap Android phones, subsidized Iphone --Nokia is China's best-selling smartphone company, with a 29% market share --Apple likely to gain China market share, providing they take on another carrier
By Sven Grundberg .... Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
STOCKHOLM (Dow Jones)--China overtook the U.S. to become the world's largest smartphone market by volume in the third quarter, according to a report by research firm Strategy Analytics. Deliveries of smart phones to operators and retailers in China rose to 24 million units in the last three months, up 58% quarter on quarter. That surpassed 23 million units delivered to the U.S. market, down 7% from the previous quarter, according to the report. The surging Chinese demand was fuelled by aggressive subsidies offered by operators of expensive models such as Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone, as well as the growing availability of low-cost models running Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android platform, Strategy Analytics said. Finland's Nokia Corp. (NOK) captured the largest share of the Chinese market, with 29% of the smartphones sales there in the quarter. It was a welcome boost for the Finnish firm, which saw its global market share in smartphones dive to 14% in the same three months from 33% a year ago as it grapples with a switchover in its phone operating software to Microsoft Inc.'s (MSFT) Windows Phones operating system. But Nokia faces challenges ahead, the research firm said. Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930.SE) is chasing hard with 18% of the Chinese market and Apple is fast expanding its reach and is likely to release its iPhone to a second Chinese operator next year, further boosting sales. Taiwan's HTC Corp. (2498.TW) and Sweden's Sony Ericsson (SNE, ERIC) were also big share gainers in the third quarter, as their Android models captured shelf space in the major cities of east and south China, according to the report.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 23, 2011 11:22:42 GMT -5
In the short term, I think we have to concede that AAPL is a high-beta stock and stocks across the board seem to be retracing October's gains. But I'm almost tempted to buy in at $368.00. Almost.
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Nov 23, 2011 11:30:57 GMT -5
Too high to go long? Too low to go short? Maybe long. Might be a small boost from holiday sales? But then again.... Both my wife and 3 daughters all want a tablet computer. They are all getting one . Do I want to spend over $2,000 for 4 Apples? Or $800 for 4 Kindle Fires? That $1,200.00 in savings still looks like a lot to me. Wonder how many other families are also considering this?
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Nov 23, 2011 14:13:00 GMT -5
My previous post was not plugging AAPL or any other supplier. I'm just using this thread to post stuff about the cell phone market, regardless of the impact on Apple.
One of the very good things about Apple is that when they sell a cell phone or tablet product they make a very nice margin on it. Most of the other tablets are selling at or below cost with the hope of selling books, etc. and then finally turning a profit. (Like give the razor away and sell the blades.) As such, Apple does not need to sell a zillion phones or tablets to make a fortune.
Disclosure: I am long Apple stock and own Call options.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Nov 23, 2011 19:31:04 GMT -5
Most consumers either want an Apple product or they don't, for the most part.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 23, 2011 19:37:59 GMT -5
I think all of us either agree or disagree with this statement.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Nov 29, 2011 10:28:09 GMT -5
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Nov 29, 2011 13:20:41 GMT -5
Apple leads and everyone else follows and imitates.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Nov 29, 2011 15:09:17 GMT -5
I still have a problem with an Apple TV. It would really have to have a "wow" factor to make a dent in the market. I just don't see where there is the possible improvement over existing devices to warrant the expense of a product launch.
wxyz's article talks about Sharp being the producer of the TFT LCD display. Maybe. More likely just a supplier of screens for the iPhone and iPad. Apple and Samsung have had a falling out of sorts over disputed patents from both companies. It is a very dangerous game to have a competitor manufacture your product for you. Sharp would be a strong competitor to any sort of Apple TV.
I want the wow factor. Give me wireless to a remote box, 55" & 70" very high def OLED plastic screen, 12mm to 20mm overall thickness, very good on-board speakers, remote sub-woofer, under 18kg in weight, and then it will get my interest.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Nov 29, 2011 15:39:36 GMT -5
I think that is what we are going to get Rovo. Think of an Ipad3 70 inch mounted on the wall......tv....internet...wireless eveything including control of all household functions...HVAC...lighting.....ect.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Dec 2, 2011 10:12:05 GMT -5
Apple hit a low of $363.32 in this cycle so Virgil was very close about his potential buy point. Currently it is trading at about $390+ and heading back up to well above $400. I expect it will exceed its 52 week high of $426.70 before the end of the year providing Europe doesn't fall apart.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Dec 2, 2011 15:01:09 GMT -5
ComScore: Samsung Remains Top Phone Maker, Android Gains Share .... 12:32p ET December 2, 2011 (Dow Jones)
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNHY, 005930.SE) remained the top overall handset maker in the U.S. in the three-month period that ended in October, while Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android platform continued to gain U.S. smartphone market share, according to the latest report from industry tracker comScore Inc. (SCOR).
The results of comScore's survey of more than 30,000 U.S. mobile subscribers come amid tight competition among makers of mobile phones and software looking for dominance in an increasingly profitable sector.
The No. 1 handset-maker Samsung saw its market share remain at 25.5% for the three months ended in October, while LG Electronics Inc.'s (066570.SE) share slid to 20.6% from 20.9%. Google's acquisition target, Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (MMI), saw its share fall to 13.6% from 14.1%, while Apple Inc. (AAPL) had 10.8% of the handset market, up from 9.5%. Research in Motion Ltd.'s (RIMM, RIM.T) share fell again to 6.6% from 7.6%.
The Android platform developed by Google was loaded on 46.3% of surveyed subscribers' smartphones during the three-month period, up from 41.9% in July. Apple's platform won a 28.1% market share, up from 27.1%. The operating system from RIM saw its market share fall to 17.2% from 21.7%.
-By Nathalie Tadena, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3287; nathalie.tadena@dowjones.com
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Dec 13, 2011 9:43:09 GMT -5
9:24a NPD's Smartphone Operating System Data Through Oct. 2011 (Dow Jones) 9:23a RIM Operates 11% Of US Smartphones, NPD Group Says (Dow Jones) 9:22a Android Operates 53% Of US Smartphones, Apple iOS 29% -- NPD (Dow Jones)
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Small Biz Owner
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Post by Small Biz Owner on Dec 20, 2011 8:19:51 GMT -5
Just as lower priced VHS replaced overpriced Sony Betamax, Androids will replace Apples. From what I have researched, The I-TV will be an excercise in redundance. Apple has peaked.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Dec 20, 2011 9:55:10 GMT -5
I hope you have cleared your short when you had the chance to make a few bucks because Apple reports earnings on or about 21 January and I wouldn't want to be holding a short position at the earnings announcement. The Androids are no cheaper to manufacture than the iPhones. The networks eat the phone cost in order to move the Android devices.
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