Short Apple AAPL

[usaone]

And then in Feb/March comes the Ipad 3.

[rovo]

I've seen several articles in the last few days where analysts are boosting their projections for Apple's earnings. Some of these guys do their homework and some just have to meet a publishing deadline.

From what I see the iPhone4s still has a 1 week + delivery time, meaning the supply chain has yet to catch up to demand.

I mentioned earlier in this thread about the earnings shortfall in FY 2011 Q4 (calendar Q3) being a late introduction of the 4s. It appears there was a problem with the camera supplier and Apple had to make a last minute change to Sony as the supplier. I haven't found a definitive statement this was the problem causing the late introduction but it certainly seems to me like the culprit.

I think we will see a steadily rising stock price between now and the earnings report on 21 Jan. Nothing goes straight up but it will most likely rise in a steady fashion.

There is also beginning to be quite a bit of talk about the potential for a dividend announcement at the next earnings call. I would love to see about $10 per year, $2.50 per quarter, in dividends. Jobs was opposed to dividends so the talk may just be hype.

I'm sure everyone knows this but just in case, if you short a stock and a dividend is issued, then the person shorting has to pay the dividend to the owner of the borrowed shares.

[rovo]

Apple loses traction on Continent, gains in U.K. .... 6:40a ET December 23, 2011 (MarketWatch) LONDON

Apple Inc.'s iPhone smartphone is seeing declining market share across parts of Europe, research firm Kantar said late Thursday. In the 12 weeks of sales ending November 27, Apple's iOS platform saw market-share declines in France, Germany and Italy. Spain also showed reversals. In Germany, Google's Android operating system scooped up the most market share, with 61%. In Britain, by contrast, Apple increased its smartphone market share to 30.9% from 21.4% over the period.

[rovo]

Apple needs to close above $410 in the near future. There is very heavy resistance at the $409 - $410 price. Once we get through this point I would expect a steady rise in price going into the earnings report on or about the 23rd of January.

Consensus on the earnings is $9.82 with a range from $8.88 to $10.74.

[workpublic]

You'd think she's never seen a computer before. It is like starting from day one with training her how to use 7.

you could use the "XP Theme" and not have to have her learn anything. ;-)

[rovo]

Apple closed at $422.40 and the stock price is climbing up the upper Bollinger Band. We should see a new 52 week high on Monday. I'm expecting $475 before the earnings report on or about 24 January.

Current PE is 15.26.
Forward PE is 10.77
Book Value/Share is $82.45

[rovo]

The following is a Seeking Alpha analysis of this quarter's earnings for Apple. It is an opinion piece so keep that in mind.

seekingalpha.com/article/318127-apple-is-set-up-to-materially-beat-consensus?source=msn

Teaser.
Apple Is Set Up To Materially Beat Consensus

Apple will announce fiscal Q1 2012 earnings on January 24. On its Q4 conference call, the company provided EPS guidance for Q1 of $9.30 per share. At the time, this was above the Wall Street consensus estimate, but Apple sold off anyway as Q4 disappointed. iPhone 4S sales lagged as consumers waited for the release of the iPhone 4S.

Wall Street consensus EPS for Q1 is $9.897 per share, 6.4% higher than company's guidance. Put another way, Apple is set up to materially beat consensus.

[rovo]

The following article is especially for Virgil. ;D

seekingalpha.com/article/318349-apple-ios-market-share-up-from-26-to-43?source=msn

[usaone]

New all time high for Apple 427.75

[Deleted]

You would be loving life today if you accidentally went long on APPL rather than AAPL.

[rovo]

Jan 10, 2012 13:13:23 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

You would be loving life today if you accidentally went long on APPL rather than AAPL.

Not exactly. I suspect the purchaser(s) of 3000 shares of APPL was trying to buy AAPL. Note the last sale was back in October.

[Deleted]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.,,,,, fail.



And to add, the only reason I was looking at APPL was because I meant to type AAPL in to the search and typed APPL by mistake.

[rovo]

I have done the same thing my self, more times than I care to think about.

[The Virginian]

It looks like other tv manufacturers are jumping on the I-TV bandwagon.

Samsung - Voice Controls
Panasonic - My Space TV
Lonovo - Smart TV with apps and streaming

Big changes coming soon in the TV arena! Whether the I-TV is a reality or not the changes are coming.

[rovo]

More than a little demand for the iPhone4s in China. ;D

tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/13/overwhelmed-by-crushing-demand-apple-cancels-fridays-iphone-4s-launch-in-china/

[rovo]

Bullish, or overly bullish, opinion on Apple.

money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20120122&id=14714575

AAPL reports after the close on Tuesday and analysts have pushed the expectations higher to the current $10.07 per share. The whisper number is at $12.18 (but we can't speak of this out-loud).\

I've stocked up on shares and have few Call option contracts for Feb. at $455 vs. the current $420.

It is going to be a fun week and I hope I am on the correct side of this trade.

[rovo]

4:32p Apple 1Q IPod Rev Down 26% To $2.53B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:32p Apple 1Q Desktop Unit Sales 1.48M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:32p Apple 1Q Other Music, Related Pdts, Services Rev Up 42% To $2.03B (Dow Jones)
4:32p Apple 1Q Portable Unit Sales 3.72M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple Sees 2Q EPS $8.50 >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple Generated Over $17.5B In Cash Flow From Ops During 1Q (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 1Q Mac Desktop Rev Up 12% To $1.94B>AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:31p AAPL 1Q Earnings Alert: Thomson Reuters $10.10 (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 1Q Mac Portables Rev Up 26% To $4.66B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple Reports First Quarter Results (Business Wire)
4:30p Apple 1Q Sales $46.33B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q Net $13.06B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q EPS $13.87 >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q Gross Margin 44.7% >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q iPad Unit Sales 15.4M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q iPhone Unit Sales 37M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q iPod Unit Sales 15.4M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 1Q Mac Unit Sales 5.2M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple: All-Time Record IPhone, IPad And Mac Sales >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple: 1Q Had Highest Qtrly Rev And Earnings Ever >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple Sees 2Q Rev $32.5B >AAPL (Dow Jones)

[clubv]

I could care less. They don't manufacture anything in my country.

[usaone]

Oct 7, 2011 9:24:01 GMT -5 Small Biz Owner said:

The first time Steve Jobs left Apple, in 1985, he was fired. In short, his partners in upper management and the board of directors at that time did not share Jobs' vision for Apple.

The six-year period 1992 to 1997 clearly depicts the ultimate consequences of Apple’s fateful decision. Earnings per share were on a steady downward trajectory from $1.08 per share in 1992 to losses in 1996 and 1997.

This is what happended the last time Jobs was away from Apple.

Unless he had his future visions already recorded for the next few rounds of products, I doubt that the company will continue it's stellar performance.

I think Small BIZ shorted at $378? I hope he got out of his position.

We are near $450.

I will be selling some APPL this afternoon.

[Deleted]

This company just hit my scope

For buying long term puts

With the blowout quarter, and the number of IPAD and IPHONE sales, how many that want their product, that havent bought it yet?

Maybe some...but can they continue these blistering sales reports? Yes, they have the I-TV in the works...and the IPAD 3 coming out.

I am thinking puts with strikes in the 400-410 range, and a 6-9 month time span. A long way to go to get into the money, but it is on my list to check out.

Am i nuts? Or soes anyone else see the same possibility?

[rovo]

Jan 25, 2012 17:00:10 GMT -5 @gdgyva said:

This company just hit my scope

For buying long term puts

With the blowout quarter, and the number of IPAD and IPHONE sales, how many that want their product, that havent bought it yet?

Maybe some...but can they continue these blistering sales reports? Yes, they have the I-TV in the works...and the IPAD 3 coming out.

I am thinking puts with strikes in the 400-410 range, and a 6-9 month time span. A long way to go to get into the money, but it is on my list to check out.

Am i nuts? Or soes anyone else see the same possibility?

Nuts? No, of course not but I believe it would be a very poor bet. I specically use the term "bet" because buying of Puts or Calls is just that, a bet.

I ran through the numbers this morning and even at the current elevated stock price for AAPL, it is still a screaming buy due to valuation.

If you are interested in my numbers please see Posts #101 and #102 at investorsforum.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=main&action=display&thread=31&page=7

Disclosure: I'm long Apple stock and own Calls on AAPL.

[rovo]

And now some of the competition begins to report spectactular results.

Nokia Beats in 4Q but Sales Decline - Analyst Blog
12:00p ET January 26, 2012 (Zacks.com)

Nokia Corp. (NOK), the largest mobile phone manufacturer of the world, declared its fourth-quarter 2011 financial result where both the top and bottom line beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Quarterly net revenue was approximately $13,496.7 million, down 21% year over year but was above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13,407 million. Quarterly net loss was approximately $1286.9 million or a loss of 39 cents per share compared with a net income of $1,192.5 million or 27 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. However, adjusted (excluding special items) EPS of 8 cents in the reported quarter beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate a couple of cents.

Quarterly adjusted operating income was approximately $644.8 million, down 56% year over year. Adjusted operating margin in the fourth quarter was 4.8% compared with 8.6% in the year-ago quarter. Operating cash flow in the reported quarter was $868.8 million, down 74% year over year.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2011, the company had $7.52 billion in net cash and marketable securities compared with $9.43 billion at the end of fiscal 2010.

Devices & Services Segment

Quarterly revenue was approximately $8,090 million, down 29% year over year. Within this segment, smartdevices (including smartphones and tablets) revenue was $3,705.7 million, down 38% year over year. Mobile Phone revenue was $4,101 million, down 23% year over year. Smartdevices average selling price (ASP) was $188.9, down 9% year over year. Mobile Phone ASP was $43.2, down 24% year over year. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Nokia shipped 19.6 million smartdevices and 93.9 million Mobile Phones, down 31% and 1% year over year, respectively.

[The Virginian]

Rovo,

An article by Jim Jubak on why Apple is still cheap:

jubakpicks.com/2012/01/25/apple-is-still-a-cheap-stock/

[rovo]

Jan 27, 2012 12:09:37 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Rovo,

An article by Jim Jubak on why Apple is still cheap:

jubakpicks.com/2012/01/25/apple-is-still-a-cheap-stock/

Nice article, especially since he feels the same way as I do about the current price of AAPL. IMO AAPL is still a deep value play with the possibility of extreme growth going forward. How often do you get a value stock price on a growth company?

[The Virginian]

I think it's per share price scares small investors away.

Do you think they will split it anytime soon?

[rovo]

I'm posting the following article just for Virgil.

Google’s Android Falls Out of Favor as Holiday Buyers Pick Apple’s IPhone .... By Adam Satariano - Jan 30, 2012 4:14 PM ET

Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) was the only smartphone maker partnering with Google Inc. (GOOG) that found holiday cheer competing against Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone.

Apple led the smartphone market in the fourth quarter after unveiling the iPhone 4S in October. Of the 9.4 million devices activated by AT&T Inc., the second-largest U.S. wireless carrier, 7.6 million were iPhones. Verizon Wireless, the largest provider, said 56 percent of its 7.7 million smartphones were iPhones. Samsung was No. 2 in shipments.

Apple sold a record 37 million iPhones globally in the three months ended Dec. 31, dispelling speculation that demand might be eroded by the dozens of devices using Google’s Android operating system. Instead, Apple’s dominance may serve as a signal that rivals such as HTC (2498) Corp. would do better to act like Hollywood studios, which hold back movies to avoid competing against the debut of a sure-bet blockbuster.

The above is just part of the article and the remainder is at
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/google-s-android-falls-out-of-favor-as-holiday-buyers-pick-apple-s-iphone.html?cmpid=msnmoney

[Steady As She Goes]

Dec 20, 2011 8:19:51 GMT -5 Small Biz Owner said:

Just as lower priced VHS replaced overpriced Sony Betamax, Androids will replace Apples. From what I have researched, Apple has peaked.

Apparently, not yet! ;D

AAPL: 493.17 +16.49 +3.46% Today's Close
493.00 -0.17 -0.03% After hours

[rovo]

Is anybody holding AAPL besides me? I'm also holding some Call Options $455.00 which I expect to sell next week before expiration at a price in excess of $50.

[usaone]

Jan 27, 2012 14:21:18 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

I think it's per share price scares small investors away.

Do you think they will split it anytime soon?

No split.

Ill be selling Apple big at the open today.

[rovo]

Ill be selling Apple big at the open today.

Might I ask why?

I'm expecting AAPL to break through $500 today even though the market looks bad at this time. I figure if it closes above $500 then it will get huge press air time over the weekend and draw in lots of buys on Monday morning. JMHO.