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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 1:25:04 GMT -5
Republican side:
Trump is a slight favourite to win. it is hard to imagine that his odds will get worse after NH. Rubio is about a 1:4 longshot, and Cruz is about 1:7.
we really need some new polling with the changed field to see how this goes, especially for candidates OTHER than Trump.
Democratic side:
this one is about as much a sure thing for Clinton as NH was for Sanders. but again, we could use some new polling.
personal synopsis
Democratic side: Clinton's organization, deep pockets, and current 30% lead don't bode well for Sanders. but winning NH will help him some. he has 17 days to catch her. that is 2%/day, which is a LOT of poll movement.
Republican side: Trump only leads by 10%, so it would be much easier to catch him.....unless your name is Marco Rubio. again, with FIVE PEOPLE trying to catch him, i think he wins this by about the same margin he won NH. more people need to drop out if someone is going to catch him.
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Post by marvholly on Feb 11, 2016 6:35:39 GMT -5
I thought South Carolina was next followed by Super Tuesday??
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 11:58:52 GMT -5
must have been tired last night. need to retitle.
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Post by happyhoix on Feb 11, 2016 14:29:39 GMT -5
IMHO, Hilary will easily win SC. The Clintons have always done well with black southern voters, and it doesn't matter if Sanders is Jewish or an atheist, neither one of those things will sit well with the evangelicals in SC. Sanders will get the educated hipsters but not a lot more.
For the GOP - I think Bush will do well. I'm going to be very curious to see how Trump fares, because he's several things that Southerners don't like - 1) loud mouthed Yankee, 2) person who is blatantly not Christian pretending to 'pass' as a devote Christian, and 3) Married 3 times (divorce is still an issue in conservative Southern circles, especially serial divorcers).
Cruz will probably do well, because he's more convincing as a conservative Christian.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 11, 2016 15:07:30 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 18:12:48 GMT -5
yeah, but who cares about Democrats, right? edit: that was a joke, but also, i don't think Nevada tells us much. besides, the polling SUX there.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2016 13:13:16 GMT -5
the polling in SC is very much following the "Iowa Pattern".
Trump and Cruz are way out in front, with Rubio making a good charge from 3rd. but Rubio is way back, and Trump is a lot further in front of Cruz than Iowa.
it looks to me like Trump is about a 3:1 favourite right now, with Rubio a 1:7 longshot. i thought for a while Cruz might win this state, but he is not gaining polling traction (though he is still in 2nd).
edit: Rubio was in single digits before November. he might conceivably get 20% in SC, as of today.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2016 13:36:57 GMT -5
But what about JEB! ?
I guess it's to early to tell whether the former President's visit yesterday will give him a bounce (in the right direction)
Jeb is out of the running. he is barely on the radar. and if he loses SC, he should drop out, imo. there are better men running. he should give them some space to breathe and take out The Donald.
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Post by dondub on Feb 16, 2016 18:01:24 GMT -5
JEB was so desperate he even lifted up the rock W has been exiled under. Alas, to no avail.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 16, 2016 20:49:45 GMT -5
I was shocked how bad Trump attacked George Bush Saturday night in the debate. I even thought he just blew the primary race, with his visible presentation of his face as well as his statements. BUT, when you look at his statement on whether W kept us safe........Trump was right. We were attacked all over the east coast that day. Republicans to this day refuse to admit it. We might have been safe in the years after the attack, but the attack did happen on George's first year in office.
HAH! Trump knew exactly what he was doing in South Carolina. He had to pre-emptively strike against W before he started campaigning for Jeb this week.
He ripped Cruz and Jeb wide open on the stage and did not leave Rubio untouched either. Calling Cruz a Liar was rough, but it is also the truth. Trump's poll numbers remained the same or improved a little depending on the polls released today in South Carolina.
I think it is time to realize Trump is a true political genius, and not the "wanna be President" person that has no clue. He has the pulse of America right now. President Obama even half trashed talk about Trump this afternoon. The political establishment on both sides are getting worried.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2016 20:57:02 GMT -5
I was shocked how bad Trump attacked George Bush Saturday night in the debate. I even thought he just blew the primary race, with his visible presentation of his face as well as his statements. BUT, when you look at his statement on whether W kept us safe........Trump was right. We were attacked all over the east coast that day. Republicans to this day refuse to admit it. We might have been safe in the years after the attack, but the attack did happen on George's first year in office. HAH! Trump knew exactly what he was doing in South Carolina. He had to pre-emptively strike against W before he started campaigning for Jeb this week. He ripped Cruz and Jeb wide open on the stage and did not leave Rubio untouched either. Calling Cruz a Liar was rough, but it is also the truth. Trump's poll numbers remained the same or improved a little depending on the polls released today in South Carolina. I think it is time to realize Trump is a true political genius, and not the "wanna be President" person that has no clue. He has the pulse of America right now. President Obama even half trashed talk about Trump this afternoon. The political establishment on both sides are getting worried. the smart thing to do would have been for one of the OTHER candidates to point out that Trump lies so much that he got an award for it. he is not only a liar, he is a liar of acclaim. that won't shut him up, but at least it will put his comments in perspective.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 16, 2016 21:01:13 GMT -5
I was shocked how bad Trump attacked George Bush Saturday night in the debate. I even thought he just blew the primary race, with his visible presentation of his face as well as his statements. BUT, when you look at his statement on whether W kept us safe........Trump was right. We were attacked all over the east coast that day. Republicans to this day refuse to admit it. We might have been safe in the years after the attack, but the attack did happen on George's first year in office. HAH! Trump knew exactly what he was doing in South Carolina. He had to pre-emptively strike against W before he started campaigning for Jeb this week. He ripped Cruz and Jeb wide open on the stage and did not leave Rubio untouched either. Calling Cruz a Liar was rough, but it is also the truth. Trump's poll numbers remained the same or improved a little depending on the polls released today in South Carolina. I think it is time to realize Trump is a true political genius, and not the "wanna be President" person that has no clue. He has the pulse of America right now. President Obama even half trashed talk about Trump this afternoon. The political establishment on both sides are getting worried. the smart thing to do would have been for one of the OTHER candidates to point out that Trump lies so much that he got an award for it. he is not only a liar, he is a liar of acclaim. that won't shut him up, but at least it will put his comments in perspective. Some how, some way, Trump is always able to get out of it in the next day or so. His press conference yesterday was amazing. The reporters cannot get to him. If he did not like a question, he said "you got to be kidding", and asked for a question from the other side of the audience.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2016 21:06:15 GMT -5
the smart thing to do would have been for one of the OTHER candidates to point out that Trump lies so much that he got an award for it. he is not only a liar, he is a liar of acclaim. that won't shut him up, but at least it will put his comments in perspective. Some how, some way, Trump is always able to get out of it in the next day or so. His press conference yesterday was amazing. The reporters cannot get to him. If he did not like a question, he said "you got to be kidding", and asked for a question from the other side of the audience. i think you are either not seeing what is happening, or you are ignoring it. but i will say it one more time: it doesn't matter what Trump says. do you want me to repeat it again, or was that time good enough?
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 16, 2016 21:12:58 GMT -5
Some how, some way, Trump is always able to get out of it in the next day or so. His press conference yesterday was amazing. The reporters cannot get to him. If he did not like a question, he said "you got to be kidding", and asked for a question from the other side of the audience. i think you are either not seeing what is happening, or you are ignoring it. but i will say it one more time: it doesn't matter what Trump says. do you want me to repeat it again, or was that time good enough? No do not repeat it. The problem is, I am a Republican conservative, and I am amazed and do not comprehend how it happens either. But it does not matter...... We are getting close to a November election that will have a billionaire without a political party and a socialist Walter Mitty going at it.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 16, 2016 21:44:17 GMT -5
... He has the pulse of America right now. ... He certainly does on some people's. What I think would be interesting would be if he wins enough delegates to sew up the nomination while there are primaries left. Will everyone else say "vote for this guy" and what will turnout numbers look like. And then there will be the general election.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2016 22:05:09 GMT -5
i think you are either not seeing what is happening, or you are ignoring it. but i will say it one more time: it doesn't matter what Trump says. do you want me to repeat it again, or was that time good enough? No do not repeat it. The problem is, I am a Republican conservative, and I am amazed and do not comprehend how it happens either. But it does not matter...... We are getting close to a November election that will have a billionaire without a political party and a socialist Walter Mitty going at it. oh good. we understand each other.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2016 22:43:42 GMT -5
Sanders has gained 9% in the last (5) days. at this rate, he will be in very good position to beat Clinton- IF HE CAN KEEP IT UP.
that is a really huge IF.
we'll see. i promise to keep you posted!
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 17, 2016 11:12:25 GMT -5
The polls this morning had Sanders about 1% behind in Nevada, which means he will win there. South Carolina, he is closing the gap, but may not beat her. It looks like the Republican nomination winner might be crowned in March. The Democratic nominee will not be crowned in March We might have a horse race there. Or two junkyard dogs yapping at each other Bernie, it is time to pull out the big gun. Mention the private server and the investigation.
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Post by Phoenix84 on Feb 17, 2016 22:01:55 GMT -5
Your prediction is sound.
I've read analysis that says Trump may well win the nomination unless two things happen, he makes a major gaffe, or more republicans drop out. Unfortunately, by the time more republican candidates drop out, it may be too late.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 3:05:29 GMT -5
Your prediction is sound. I've read analysis that says Trump may well win the nomination unless two things happen, he makes a major gaffe, or more republicans drop out. Unfortunately, by the time more republican candidates drop out, it may be too late. his prediction is backwards, imo. i think that the GOP has a much better chance of not knowing who their candidate is on 3/2 than Democrats.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 18, 2016 9:34:33 GMT -5
Your prediction is sound. I've read analysis that says Trump may well win the nomination unless two things happen, he makes a major gaffe, or more republicans drop out. Unfortunately, by the time more republican candidates drop out, it may be too late. his prediction is backwards, imo. i think that the GOP has a much better chance of not knowing who their candidate is on 3/2 than Democrats. Trump is the favorite right now. After mid March Republican primaries are (I believe) "winner take all delegates" states. Right now Rubio or Cruz cannot even win Florida. He wins with a simple majority in every primary, or even 49.5% as long as he beats the opponent, hence Trump wins.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 10:11:40 GMT -5
his prediction is backwards, imo. i think that the GOP has a much better chance of not knowing who their candidate is on 3/2 than Democrats. Trump is the favorite right now. so is Clinton, by approximately the same margin. you know that, right?After mid March Republican primaries are (I believe) "winner take all delegates" states. Right now Rubio or Cruz cannot even win Florida. He wins with a simple majority in every primary, or even 49.5% as long as he beats the opponent, hence Trump wins. there are only six winner take all states in the primary. only one of them votes on Super Tuesday.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 10:32:26 GMT -5
seriously, VB- Clinton and Trump both lead their opponents by 11%. they are both leading in almost every state down campaign. they have both had one national poll recently within polling error.
why are you thinking that Clinton's position is any worse than Trump's?
it seems to me that NEITHER party will have a brokered election, if you are just reading the polls.
what makes you think otherwise?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 16:56:18 GMT -5
SC is getting tighter for Trump, and looser for Clinton. here are the latest polls:
Trump: 33 = 16 point lead Cruz/Rubio: 17 (tied) Bush/Kasich: 10 (tied)
Trump is falling, and everyone other than Cruz is rising. this is reminding me a lot of Iowa, except it is Rubio moving this time, not Cruz, and Trump's lead is much bigger.
as i mentioned earlier in the Republican nomination thread, the more people drop out, the tighter it gets for Trump. in the last (5) polls, only ONE of them show him with more than a 13% lead. by the time the primary rolls around, he will be in single digits, in all likelihood. it is not hard to imagine that if Kasich or Bush were not in this race, he might possibly lose SC. since August 8th, Trump is up exactly 1%. meanwhile, Rubio is +12, Cruz is +14, Kasich is +7, and only Bush has fallen (-2).
on the Democratic side, Clinton got two polls today that show her +30%. i think it is too much for Bernie to catch her.
prediction: Trump wins by less than 10%, with Rubio in 2nd, and Cruz 3rd on GOP side. Clinton wins, but too early to tell by how much.
edit: Rubio is doing much better than i expected. he must have a really well organized campaign.
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Post by mmhmm on Feb 18, 2016 17:09:33 GMT -5
SC is getting tighter for Trump, and looser for Clinton. here are the latest polls: Trump: 33 = 16 point lead Cruz/Rubio: 17 (tied) Bush/Kasich: 10 (tied) Trump is falling, and everyone other than Cruz is rising. this is reminding me a lot of Iowa, except it is Rubio moving this time, not Cruz, and Trump's lead is much bigger. as i mentioned earlier in the Republican nomination thread, the more people drop out, the tighter it gets for Trump. in the last (5) polls, only ONE of them show him with more than a 13% lead. by the time the primary rolls around, he will be in single digits, in all likelihood. it is not hard to imagine that if Kasich or Bush were not in this race, he might possibly lose SC. since August 8th, Trump is up exactly 1%. meanwhile, Rubio is +12, Cruz is +14, Kasich is +7, and only Bush has fallen (-2). on the Democratic side, Clinton got two polls today that show her +30%. i think it is too much for Bernie to catch her. prediction: Trump wins by less than 10%, with Rubio in 2nd, and Cruz 3rd on GOP side. Clinton wins, but too early to tell by how much. edit: Rubio is doing much better than i expected. he must have a really well organized campaign. He was also endorsed by SC Governor Haley who is pretty well-liked here. I imagine that's given him a boost.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 17:12:57 GMT -5
SC is getting tighter for Trump, and looser for Clinton. here are the latest polls: Trump: 33 = 16 point lead Cruz/Rubio: 17 (tied) Bush/Kasich: 10 (tied) Trump is falling, and everyone other than Cruz is rising. this is reminding me a lot of Iowa, except it is Rubio moving this time, not Cruz, and Trump's lead is much bigger. as i mentioned earlier in the Republican nomination thread, the more people drop out, the tighter it gets for Trump. in the last (5) polls, only ONE of them show him with more than a 13% lead. by the time the primary rolls around, he will be in single digits, in all likelihood. it is not hard to imagine that if Kasich or Bush were not in this race, he might possibly lose SC. since August 8th, Trump is up exactly 1%. meanwhile, Rubio is +12, Cruz is +14, Kasich is +7, and only Bush has fallen (-2). on the Democratic side, Clinton got two polls today that show her +30%. i think it is too much for Bernie to catch her. prediction: Trump wins by less than 10%, with Rubio in 2nd, and Cruz 3rd on GOP side. Clinton wins, but too early to tell by how much. edit: Rubio is doing much better than i expected. he must have a really well organized campaign. He was also endorsed by SC Governor Haley who is pretty well-liked here. I imagine that's given him a boost. he is trending sharply higher. as i said before, i think he is being groomed as the giant slayer. now, that might not hold up- but that is how it looks right now. he trailed Cruz in 2nd by 10% a month ago, and now he is tied. it is surprising only in that i didn't expect him to do well in SC. i always figured Cruz would be the guy.
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Feb 18, 2016 17:20:47 GMT -5
Do you think Trump's numbers will go down after his remarks about the Pope? BTW I haven't seen a credible quote where the Pope named Trump. The comment on building walls or bridges can apply to everyone. He is a preacher after all. Trump can say he is a christian all he wants, but his personal attacks and language say otherwise.
ETA. I was wrong.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 17:27:36 GMT -5
Do you think Trump's numbers will go down after his remarks about the Pope? BTW I haven't seen a credible quote where the Pope named Trump. The comment on building walls or bridges can apply to everyone. He is a preacher after all. Trump can say he is a christian all he wants, but his personal attacks and language say otherwise. no. here is what i think. i will say it again, and i will keep saying it until either he wins, and i am shown wrong, or he loses, and i am shown right. roughly half of the GOP thinks that the current party leadership and congress is a failure. roughly the same number say that they want someone "non-political" to lead the party. the overlap is roughly 1/3 of the GOP. there is no way it is half, as not every single person that dislikes the GOP is willing to throw them overboard just yet. so, what Trump represents is a protest vote. he could say SHIT 24/7...literally...like "shit shit shit shit shit", and he would get 33% (max). here is the thing. in a 15 man race, 33% wins. in a 10 man race, 33% wins. in a 6 man race, like we have now, 33% wins. in a 4 man race....i don't think 33% wins. we have (3) really competitive players. if that was ALL that was in the race right now, Trump would lose every contest. so long as there are more than 4 in the race, however, Trump is going to win more than his fair share. i hope that 1-2 more will drop out after SC. that will make it very tough for Trump to sweep Super Tuesday. very tough indeed.
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Feb 18, 2016 17:29:41 GMT -5
I edited my comment. The Pope responded to a question about Trump, so it was directed to Trump.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 17:30:27 GMT -5
one small aside- i think Carson dropping out will HELP Trump, as he is the other "non-politician" in the race.
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