djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 8, 2016 21:07:43 GMT -5
Republican Side: i don't see any way Trump loses, but i see it VERY possible that the margin of victory is less than 10%. Trump will win with between 20-30% of the vote. Rubio or Kasich will get 15-20%. i am not sure which one. so, yeah, if things go really badly for The Donald, and really great for one of these two, it could be close. otherwise, Trump wins comfortably. it is possible that Cruz loses to BUSH in this race, which would be bad for him, but quite possible. if Trump wins by less than 10%, it will set up an interesting contest in SC, where Cruz has been making steady gains since AUGUST, when he was polling at a pathetic 3% (he is now at 20%). Democratic Side: i don't see any way Sanders loses. the question is ONLY if Hillary loses horribly (by 20%) or merely beaten badly (by 10-15%). if she loses by less than 10%, that would be a very satisfying result for her, in a race that she has not lead since AUGUST (with the exception of a few weeks in November). if Hillary loses by less than 15%, she will be well positioned to win in SC, where she leads by 30%. myself? i will be watching the Warriors either tie or beat the best opening streak in NBA history.
|
|
marvholly
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:45:21 GMT -5
Posts: 6,540
|
Post by marvholly on Feb 9, 2016 6:40:23 GMT -5
I live in metro Chicago & I figure the pundits will be annoiting the winners & losers by our late news (10 pm CT).
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 8:17:32 GMT -5
I posted this comment on the 2016 Republican nomination thread, but it seems more applicable for here.
Looks like Hillary has partially closed the gap with Bernie. Looks like it is no longer a blowout, but Bernie does win. Trump takes N.H. Some polls show Jeb beating Rubio, and both Kasich and Bush are showing large gains in total vote, both around 13%. Rubio could either be second or fifth....... Fifth would not be good. Cruz is still trailing Rubio. That said, we know N.H. polls go out the window today and it is truly anyone's game to win today. There could literally be fifteen percent swings between the polls and actual vote outcome. Then, you have the Independents who could come out on the Republican vote today to sink a particular candidate's chances.
Believe it or not Jeb has the highest favorable rating in the Republican side with 55%. Trump is at 49% favorable rating.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Feb 9, 2016 8:27:56 GMT -5
Republican Side: i don't see any way Trump loses, but i see it VERY possible that the margin of victory is less than 10%. Trump will win with between 20-30% of the vote. Rubio or Kasich will get 15-20%. i am not sure which one. so, yeah, if things go really badly for The Donald, and really great for one of these two, it could be close. otherwise, Trump wins comfortably. it is possible that Cruz loses to BUSH in this race, which would be bad for him, but quite possible. if Trump wins by less than 10%, it will set up an interesting contest in SC, where Cruz has been making steady gains since AUGUST, when he was polling at a pathetic 3% (he is now at 20%). Democratic Side: i don't see any way Sanders loses. the question is ONLY if Hillary loses horribly (by 20%) or merely beaten badly (by 10-15%). if she loses by less than 10%, that would be a very satisfying result for her, in a race that she has not lead since AUGUST (with the exception of a few weeks in November). if Hillary loses by less than 15%, she will be well positioned to win in SC, where she leads by 30%. myself? i will be watching the Warriors either tie or beat the best opening streak in NBA history. I can see his double digit lead being cut into as you've said- but in my opinion (which has been wrong before) I don't see how polling showing a double digit lead will turn out wrong. If it does- we can basically throw out ALL the polls and the whole thing is a guessing game.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,931
|
Post by happyhoix on Feb 9, 2016 9:07:31 GMT -5
Kasich is on a hot streak. I think he's gaining traction by being the only GOP candidate who isn't mired in throwing mud, and he seems confident, rather than whatever is wrong with Rubio right now.
It will be interesting to see how he comes out of this.
Apparently Hillary's camp is talking about a shake up in her advisors if she does poorly here, although she denies it.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,612
|
Post by Tennesseer on Feb 9, 2016 9:48:13 GMT -5
I could tolerate Kasich as president. The only sane Republican of the bunch.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 11:16:00 GMT -5
Republican Side: i don't see any way Trump loses, but i see it VERY possible that the margin of victory is less than 10%. Trump will win with between 20-30% of the vote. Rubio or Kasich will get 15-20%. i am not sure which one. so, yeah, if things go really badly for The Donald, and really great for one of these two, it could be close. otherwise, Trump wins comfortably. it is possible that Cruz loses to BUSH in this race, which would be bad for him, but quite possible. if Trump wins by less than 10%, it will set up an interesting contest in SC, where Cruz has been making steady gains since AUGUST, when he was polling at a pathetic 3% (he is now at 20%). Democratic Side: i don't see any way Sanders loses. the question is ONLY if Hillary loses horribly (by 20%) or merely beaten badly (by 10-15%). if she loses by less than 10%, that would be a very satisfying result for her, in a race that she has not lead since AUGUST (with the exception of a few weeks in November). if Hillary loses by less than 15%, she will be well positioned to win in SC, where she leads by 30%. myself? i will be watching the Warriors either tie or beat the best opening streak in NBA history. I can see his double digit lead being cut into as you've said- but in my opinion (which has been wrong before) I don't see how polling showing a double digit lead will turn out wrong. If it does- we can basically throw out ALL the polls and the whole thing is a guessing game. this is why i like national polling better than state polling. the sampling is dicier in state polling. the number of undecided voters is very high, which leads to uncertain results. that doesn't mean you throw out the polls and fly blind. for example, there is no way Bush wins NH. how do you know that? there is no way Kasich wins it either. there is no way Cruz wins it. there is no way Carson wins it. it is extremely likely that Trump wins. you know all of those things because of polling. you can ignore it, if you wish. just remember what that got you in 2012.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 11:17:33 GMT -5
Kasich is on a hot streak. I think he's gaining traction by being the only GOP candidate who isn't mired in throwing mud, and he seems confident, rather than whatever is wrong with Rubio right now.
It will be interesting to see how he comes out of this.
Apparently Hillary's camp is talking about a shake up in her advisors if she does poorly here, although she denies it. that's not true. Bush benefits too. nobody thought he would be an underdog, but he is.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,931
|
Post by happyhoix on Feb 9, 2016 12:24:45 GMT -5
Kasich is on a hot streak. I think he's gaining traction by being the only GOP candidate who isn't mired in throwing mud, and he seems confident, rather than whatever is wrong with Rubio right now.
It will be interesting to see how he comes out of this.
Apparently Hillary's camp is talking about a shake up in her advisors if she does poorly here, although she denies it. that's not true. Bush benefits too. nobody thought he would be an underdog, but he is. Yes Bush is an a hot streak, too.
Interesting to see what the results will be, and how the different camps will spin it.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Feb 9, 2016 13:01:40 GMT -5
I can see his double digit lead being cut into as you've said- but in my opinion (which has been wrong before) I don't see how polling showing a double digit lead will turn out wrong. If it does- we can basically throw out ALL the polls and the whole thing is a guessing game. this is why i like national polling better than state polling. the sampling is dicier in state polling. the number of undecided voters is very high, which leads to uncertain results. that doesn't mean you throw out the polls and fly blind. for example, there is no way Bush wins NH. how do you know that? there is no way Kasich wins it either. there is no way Cruz wins it. there is no way Carson wins it. it is extremely likely that Trump wins. you know all of those things because of polling. you can ignore it, if you wish. just remember what that got you in 2012. Actually, what got me in 2012 was not the polling- which turned out to be right. What got me was believing the flawed analysis of the polling which factored in this imaginary "TEA Party turnout" from 2010. It never manifested.
|
|
Wisconsin Beth
Distinguished Associate
No, we don't walk away. But when we're holding on to something precious, we run.
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 11:59:36 GMT -5
Posts: 30,626
|
Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 9, 2016 13:41:38 GMT -5
Apparently towns with under 100 residents can be granted permission to start early and end when everyone's voted.
So courtesy of slate.com, Cruz, Trump and Kasich were tied with 9 votes each. Sanders has 17 and Clinton has 9.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 14:31:58 GMT -5
this is why i like national polling better than state polling. the sampling is dicier in state polling. the number of undecided voters is very high, which leads to uncertain results. that doesn't mean you throw out the polls and fly blind. for example, there is no way Bush wins NH. how do you know that? there is no way Kasich wins it either. there is no way Cruz wins it. there is no way Carson wins it. it is extremely likely that Trump wins. you know all of those things because of polling. you can ignore it, if you wish. just remember what that got you in 2012. Actually, what got me in 2012 was not the polling- which turned out to be right. What got me was believing the flawed analysis of the polling which factored in this imaginary "TEA Party turnout" from 2010. It never manifested. and it hasn't for a generation. conservatives tend to vote whether it is an off or on presidential election year. liberals tend to vote DISPROPORTIONATELY in presidential election years. so, the GOP does well in 2010 +4n, where n = an integer >0. they do way worse in years 2012 +4n, where n is an integer > 0. they will have a very hard time winning in 2016, because of that fact. and the more disparate the parties get, the MORE this effect is amplified.
|
|
chiver78
Administrator
Current Events Admin
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:04:45 GMT -5
Posts: 38,647
|
Post by chiver78 on Feb 9, 2016 14:36:46 GMT -5
Apparently towns with under 100 residents can be granted permission to start early and end when everyone's voted. So courtesy of slate.com, Cruz, Trump and Kasich were tied with 9 votes each. Sanders has 17 and Clinton has 9. Yup, Dixville Notch votes at midnight every primary. a few other towns do, too.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 19:48:36 GMT -5
polls are closing.
trump is out to a yuge early lead (30%) with 2% reporting.
first update: trump's lead is down to 20% now with 2% reporting. Kasich in 2nd with an unsurprising 14%. i suspect that the margin will tighten as the night goes on. but who knows?
second update: trump's lead now at 19% with 3% reporting. Kasich with 15%. Rubio is running 5th, with Christie only 1% behind, in 6th.
third update: trump's lead down to 16% now, with 3% reporting. Kasich up to 16%. Rubio is now in 4th and Cruz is in a surprising 5th. Bush is running 3rd, which will probably keep him in this race through SC at least, if it holds.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 20:06:37 GMT -5
they are already declaring Trump the winner with 3% of the vote in.
edit: Kasich is doing very well, with 17% of the vote, and a 5% lead over his nearest opponent.
second edit: Carson, Fiorina, and Gilmore are all getting killed. they should drop out.
third edit: Rubio and Christie are falling way back. it looks like Rubio finishes 5th, if this holds up, which is a TERRIBLE showing for him (he was polling in 2nd at last count). Cruz is ALSO not doing well, in 4th. Bush and Kasich are doing much better than expected.
this is going to make the race very confusing going forward. Trump is basically a protest candidate. he is getting about 100% of the vote that is dissatisfied with the GOP. unfortunately for the GOP, that is a very large number. and i doubt it is going to move much.
the only way to beat him is to get this race down to 2-3 candidates. the stubbornness of the remaining candidates may propel Trump to victory.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 20:29:31 GMT -5
Trump versus Crankshaft? Amazingly all three, CNN, MSNBC, and FOX all called the night at 7pm. Sanders won the woman's vote by 53% to 47% over Hillary tonight. (MSNBC statistic) Yes, there will be a shake up in Clinton's team before Nevada caucus in two weeks. South Carolina is three weeks away. I guess we have to give props to Kasich at 17%. We knew he was gaining strength, but this is a big win for him. I do not know if it will carry through to South Carolina.
|
|
Shooby
Senior Associate
Joined: Jan 17, 2013 0:32:36 GMT -5
Posts: 14,782
Mini-Profile Name Color: 1cf04f
|
Post by Shooby on Feb 9, 2016 20:32:10 GMT -5
LOL!!!! Nobody likes Hillary. Bwaaahhhh!
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 5:35:14 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 20:34:41 GMT -5
I don't think nobody likes her... She polls very well nationally.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 20:36:30 GMT -5
85% of Democratic voters under 30 went for Sanders. 85%!!
Largest voting block for the Dems is 50 to 64 in NH. I do not know what their break out was, but Sanders winning women, makes me think he did well in that group also. Surprisingly, terrorism was only the second most important issue for Republican voters in exit polls, coming in behind the economy. Terrorism probably reflects Trump more than anyone else, but that is my guess. Democratic issue was income inequality, which backs Sander's campaign stance. I wonder if Hillary was hurt with Wall Street speaking engagements and the big money she took in for them.
|
|
Shooby
Senior Associate
Joined: Jan 17, 2013 0:32:36 GMT -5
Posts: 14,782
Mini-Profile Name Color: 1cf04f
|
Post by Shooby on Feb 9, 2016 20:37:23 GMT -5
I don't think nobody likes her... She polls very well nationally. Oh suuuree. Dems are tossing her under the bus Again. Cant blame Repos for the trainwreck that is Hillary!
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 5:35:14 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 20:38:59 GMT -5
I could tolerate Kasich as president. The only sane Republican of the bunch. I only ever hear Democrats say this.
|
|
Shooby
Senior Associate
Joined: Jan 17, 2013 0:32:36 GMT -5
Posts: 14,782
Mini-Profile Name Color: 1cf04f
|
Post by Shooby on Feb 9, 2016 20:40:43 GMT -5
I could tolerate Kasich as president. The only sane Republican of the bunch. I only ever hear Democrats say this. Yeah i love it when Dems try to tell us who we Should run.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 20:41:56 GMT -5
Looks like the Governors did what they had to do. Second and third place. Kasich 17% Jeb 12% Cruz 11% Rubio 10%
Christie, 8%
dj was correct that the regular members of the party are solidifying there standing. But, Trump did not stumble. Until Christie and either Cruz (who will not) and Rubio drops out, it's Trump's game to win.
EDIT: Cruz is now at 12% with JEB! Will not change the list above as it is very fluid right now.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 5:35:14 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 20:43:12 GMT -5
I don't give a shit who you run. But I didn't use to vote straight tickets... I used to vote the best candidate. That just hasn't been an R in quite a while... Whether or not it contributes to you all not winning much lately ... guess you'll have to decide.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 5:35:14 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 20:43:30 GMT -5
I only ever hear Democrats say this. Yeah i love it when Dems try to tell us who we Should run. to be fair, someone needs to
|
|
b2r
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:35:25 GMT -5
Posts: 7,257
|
Post by b2r on Feb 9, 2016 20:45:24 GMT -5
|
|
dondub
Senior Associate
The meek shall indeed inherit the earth but only after the Visigoths are done with it.
Joined: Jan 16, 2014 19:31:06 GMT -5
Posts: 12,110
Location: Seattle
Favorite Drink: Laphroig
|
Post by dondub on Feb 9, 2016 20:46:33 GMT -5
What Demo told the Repos who to run? Just because a poster or two likes Kasich because he's not insane like...ummm...Trump for instance!
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 20:48:53 GMT -5
I don't give a shit who you run. But I didn't use to vote straight tickets... I used to vote the best candidate. That just hasn't been an R in quite a while... Whether or not it contributes to you all not winning much lately ... guess you'll have to decide. I imagine the new polls next week will reflect poorly for Hillary. FBI admits they are investigating her Females bailed on her tonight. I guess that does leave the black vote, but Sanders is meeting with Al Sharpton, so you can bet there might be a shift there too. It will be reflected in the new polls.
|
|
dondub
Senior Associate
The meek shall indeed inherit the earth but only after the Visigoths are done with it.
Joined: Jan 16, 2014 19:31:06 GMT -5
Posts: 12,110
Location: Seattle
Favorite Drink: Laphroig
|
Post by dondub on Feb 9, 2016 20:49:17 GMT -5
Of course Sanders was going to clean Hillary's clock in NH considering he's from next door. So I'm not sure what bus shooby thinks she is being thrown under.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 5:35:14 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 20:54:04 GMT -5
Does Bush get to claim he did well or is this a disappointment.
|
|