Carson in 2nd. Could he be the GOP nominee?

[Waffle]

According to the latest Fox news poll, Dr. Ben Carson is now 2nd behind the Donald. A lot of people seem to think that Trump will never actually be the GOP nominee. So if Trump is out, what kind of chance do you think Carson has of actually securing the nomination? BTW, Bush has fallen to 4th in this poll with Ted Cruz coming in 3rd.

link

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 12:40:10 GMT -5 Waffle said:

According to the latest Fox news poll, Dr. Ben Carson is now 2nd behind the Donald. A lot of people seem to think that Trump will never actually be the GOP nominee. So if Trump is out, what kind of chance do you think Carson has of actually securing the nomination? BTW, Bush has fallen to 4th in this poll with Ted Cruz coming in 3rd.

link

i wouldn't bank on Carson, just yet, for several reasons.

first, this is a SINGLE POLL. 

second, he is only 2% higher than Cruz, and 3% above Bush in this poll, which is not statistically significant.

third, there are a bunch of really weird numbers in that poll.  IE, Trump came in at 25%, which is his second highest rating ever, even though he didn't debate especially well.  also, CRUZ came in 3rd, even though he didn't debate particularly well.  a FOX News poll of a FOX debate done by FOX is kinda strange to me, so i would wait and see if any other polls reflect this.  so far, the only OTHER poll that was done since the debate shows positive movement for Carson into the second tier, but none of the other bizarre-ness of the FOX survey.

wait...and...see

[dondub]

No.

[djAdvocate]

there was one more oddity about the FOX poll, and that is that Walker came in TIED FOR SIXTH with Huck.

that is really weird, imo.

now, it could be that all this stuff is REAL.  if so, future polls will confirm it.  but for now, this poll strikes me as utterly strange.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Aug 17, 2015 12:40:10 GMT -5 Waffle said:

According to the latest Fox news poll, Dr. Ben Carson is now 2nd behind the Donald. A lot of people seem to think that Trump will never actually be the GOP nominee. So if Trump is out, what kind of chance do you think Carson has of actually securing the nomination? BTW, Bush has fallen to 4th in this poll with Ted Cruz coming in 3rd.

link

Don't you typically have to be in first to be the nominee?

[bean29]

dj where do you think Walker should have been?

Bush (and Walker whom I really don't like) are the only ones I think have a chance. I don't like Cruz at all either. I liked Carson a lot, but I think he needs more experience to be president.  My DH was very disturbed about Trump and his immigration stance this morning.  DH was talking about the 14th amendment and that it has been in place since 1868 and Trump is saying children born to undocumented immigrants born in the US should be deported. 

Edit to correct Punctuation.  And hey Paul, tell us if you would vote for Trump.  Do you like him or do you prefer someone else.

[Waffle]

 It's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I want persons other than Bush and Clinton to get the nominations.

[Waffle]

Aug 17, 2015 13:46:35 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 17, 2015 12:40:10 GMT -5 Waffle said:

According to the latest Fox news poll, Dr. Ben Carson is now 2nd behind the Donald. A lot of people seem to think that Trump will never actually be the GOP nominee. So if Trump is out, what kind of chance do you think Carson has of actually securing the nomination? BTW, Bush has fallen to 4th in this poll with Ted Cruz coming in 3rd.

link

Don't you typically have to be in first to be the nominee?

Yes.  Hence, the bolded "if" in my sentence above.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

The GOP nomination, for better or for worse, is Trump's to lose right now.  People that don't think that a man with an ego the size of Donald Trump's doesn't really care about winning are fooling themselves.  He's in it to win it.  And he's not going to play by the "rules" as defined by the Washington political class.  Trump is a businessman, a deal maker, and entrepreneur. As such, he doesn't play nice with the other kids. He is not a collaborator. He calls meetings, he doesn't merely attend meetings. The purpose of the meetings he calls is not to listen and get ideas, it is to give orders and directions. He does not get mired in specifics and details- he tells people what he wants to accomplish, and he expects them to do it. If it turns out they're the wrong people for the job, he fires them and finds the right person. He'll never, ever, ever have a 27 point plan for muddling through the next century. There will be no "managing the decline" in a Trump administration. Some things he does will anger conservatives, some things he does will anger liberals, but he'll "DO SOMETHING DAMMIT" and that's going to be enough for a whole lot of people. He's a winner, he's proud of what he's accomplished, and that's the simple fact. To paraphrase Patton, "America loves a winner, and will not tolerate a loser". The fact is that the GOP has been doing everything it's consultants and higher ups have been telling them to do since 1989, and it's been a disaster.  Even W. who supposedly "won" was the nation's most profligate spender before Obama, his lack of leadership, and unwillingness to FIGHT for conservative principles (because he's not one) tee'd up Obama.  The Democrats have been steam rolling this country since Reagan- and a brief flirtation with conservative leadership under Newt Gingrich in the mid 1990's- and they've done so with the aid and comfort of Republicans.  The Democrats, and by default, the Republicans have joined with our country's enemies to destroy us, and I think that's where people like Trump and his supporters draw the line.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Aug 17, 2015 13:53:02 GMT -5 Waffle said:

 It's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I want persons other than Bush and Clinton to get the nominations.

Bush will not be the nominee.  He's not even close in a single important primary state. Bush will not be the nominee.  Do not doubt me. Ever.

[Waffle]

Well, that's it, AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP just locked the Republican nomination in for Bush.

[billisonboard]

Aug 17, 2015 13:46:35 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 17, 2015 12:40:10 GMT -5 Waffle said:

According to the latest Fox news poll, Dr. Ben Carson is now 2nd behind the Donald. A lot of people seem to think that Trump will never actually be the GOP nominee. So if Trump is out, what kind of chance do you think Carson has of actually securing the nomination? BTW, Bush has fallen to 4th in this poll with Ted Cruz coming in 3rd.

link

Don't you typically have to be in first to be the nominee?

Actually, placement in polls does not get one the nomination. The key will be the way that delegates to the national convention will be determined. Here is some information: Delegate Allocation to Presidential Contenders and Sanctions The interesting conversation will be proportional or winner take all. The Republicans could easily either go to the convention without a nominee determined and fight it out on the floor or have a nominee who consistently had a major of voters vote for a different candidate. Interesting process to watch.

[Waffle]

I heard a legal analyst earlier today who said an amendment might not even be necessary. There are already some exceptions to the 14th amendment in place. The only one I remember was that children born to "visiting" diplomats are not American citizens. His line of reason was if some federal level exceptions already exist, then another exception law could be created without being unconstitutional.

[kent]

I honestly do think we should amend the 14th amendment.

[imawino]

Aug 17, 2015 14:44:02 GMT -5 kent said:

I honestly do think we should amend the 14th amendment.

Can we amend the 2nd at the same time, as a package deal?

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 14:02:32 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The GOP nomination, for better or for worse, is Trump's to lose right now.  People that don't think that a man with an ego the size of Donald Trump's doesn't really care about winning are fooling themselves.  He's in it to win it.  And he's not going to play by the "rules" as defined by the Washington political class.  Trump is a businessman, a deal maker, and entrepreneur. As such, he doesn't play nice with the other kids. He is not a collaborator. He calls meetings, he doesn't merely attend meetings. The purpose of the meetings he calls is not to listen and get ideas, it is to give orders and directions. He does not get mired in specifics and details- he tells people what he wants to accomplish, and he expects them to do it. If it turns out they're the wrong people for the job, he fires them and finds the right person. He'll never, ever, ever have a 27 point plan for muddling through the next century. There will be no "managing the decline" in a Trump administration. Some things he does will anger conservatives, some things he does will anger liberals, but he'll "DO SOMETHING DAMMIT" and that's going to be enough for a whole lot of people. He's a winner, he's proud of what he's accomplished, and that's the simple fact. To paraphrase Patton, "America loves a winner, and will not tolerate a loser". The fact is that the GOP has been doing everything it's consultants and higher ups have been telling them to do since 1989, and it's been a disaster.  Even W. who supposedly "won" was the nation's most profligate spender before Obama, his lack of leadership, and unwillingness to FIGHT for conservative principles (because he's not one) tee'd up Obama.  The Democrats have been steam rolling this country since Reagan- and a brief flirtation with conservative leadership under Newt Gingrich in the mid 1990's- and they've done so with the aid and comfort of Republicans.  The Democrats, and by default, the Republicans have joined with our country's enemies to destroy us, and I think that's where people like Trump and his supporters draw the line.

i agree with everything other than your statement about what Tee'd Up Obama.  the fact that W is the worst president since Harding Tee'd up Obama.

[bean29]

Aug 17, 2015 14:37:38 GMT -5 Sum Dum Gai said:

DH was talking about the 14th amendment and that it has been in place since 1868 and Trump is saying children born to undocumented immigrants born in the US should be deported.

Fuck. I knew that blowhard would say something I'm forced to agree with sooner or later. I honestly do think we should amend the 14th amendment. Children born in this country should get the immigration/citizenship status of the parents at the time of birth. So, if mom and dad jump the fence while she's 9 months pregnant to have the baby in a US hospital on the southern border, it's not an automatic citizen, and they can't use it to as a loophole to legally stay here. Plenty of other first world countries work that way. You can't illegally sneak into a country then expect automatic citizenship for your kids. Well, you can here, because Americans are stupid, you can't in most of the rest of the world.

I'd also apply this to people here legally, but not yet citizens. If you're here on a 12 month student visa, or some other temporary type of visa and you have a kid, that kid shouldn't get citizenship either. It should get the same type of temporary visa that the parent is on, along with citizenship in whatever country the parent is a citizen of.

That would mean that in the example of the couple sneaking across the southern border to deliver their baby in a US hospital if the hospital staff called ICE the whole family would get deported including the baby. That might sound heartless or whatever, but ICE officials aren't the ones who decided to sneak a pregnant woman across a national border. That would be on the parents not law enforcement for doing their jobs.

So, are you proposing you do this for people that have had their SS card/voting rights for years, or just on a go forward basis.  I have a real problem with changing the established "rules" mid stream.  I can't even begin to imagine the chaos this would cause. 

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 14:03:31 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 17, 2015 13:53:02 GMT -5 Waffle said:

 It's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I want persons other than Bush and Clinton to get the nominations.

Bush will not be the nominee.  He's not even close in a single important primary state. Bush will not be the nominee.  Do not doubt me. Ever.

using your track record as a guide, he is way more of a lock than i would have predicted.

[Deleted]

Walker vs O'Malley is my prediction.

[Tennesseer]

Aug 17, 2015 14:03:31 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 17, 2015 13:53:02 GMT -5 Waffle said:

 It's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I want persons other than Bush and Clinton to get the nominations.

Bush will not be the nominee.  He's not even close in a single important primary state. Bush will not be the nominee.  Do not doubt me. Ever.

Been there-done that and look what happened.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Aug 17, 2015 14:34:37 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Aug 17, 2015 13:46:35 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Don't you typically have to be in first to be the nominee?

Actually, placement in polls does not get one the nomination. The key will be the way that delegates to the national convention will be determined. Here is some information: Delegate Allocation to Presidential Contenders and Sanctions The interesting conversation will be proportional or winner take all. The Republicans could easily either go to the convention without a nominee determined and fight it out on the floor or have a nominee who consistently had a major of voters vote for a different candidate. Interesting process to watch.

I know how it works- I'm in the process of becoming a delegate.

[billisonboard]

Aug 17, 2015 17:19:29 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 17, 2015 14:34:37 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Actually, placement in polls does not get one the nomination. The key will be the way that delegates to the national convention will be determined. Here is some information: Delegate Allocation to Presidential Contenders and Sanctions The interesting conversation will be proportional or winner take all. The Republicans could easily either go to the convention without a nominee determined and fight it out on the floor or have a nominee who consistently had a major of voters vote for a different candidate. Interesting process to watch.

I know how it works- ...

Sweet. Problem is I have no idea what you know or don't know. I just responded to the words that were posted and gave accurate information.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 16:28:22 GMT -5 @hickle said:

Walker vs O'Malley is my prediction.

O'Malley has about as much of a chance of winning on the Dem side as does Iggy Pop.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Aug 17, 2015 17:31:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 17, 2015 16:28:22 GMT -5 @hickle said:

Walker vs O'Malley is my prediction.

O'Malley has about as much of a chance of winning on the Dem side as does Iggy Pop.

Walker was leading in Iowa- until he got a challenger.  I like Walker a lot- I like a whole bunch of people better than Trump- but the sad fact is that right now, Trump leads in Iowa with 22% of likely caucus goers saying he's best able to handle the major issues. Ben Carson is in second at 14%. Walker has slipped to 9%.  Bush is at 5% - and who really knows what they went through to make it so Bush isn't with "the rest of the candidates" at 3% or less?  Bush will never get the nomination. Ever.


www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/cnn-orc-poll-iowa-republican-caucus-data/index.html

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 18:03:30 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 17, 2015 17:31:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

O'Malley has about as much of a chance of winning on the Dem side as does Iggy Pop.

Walker was leading in Iowa- until he got a challenger.  I like Walker a lot- I like a whole bunch of people better than Trump- but the sad fact is that right now, Trump leads in Iowa with 22% of likely caucus goers saying he's best able to handle the major issues. Ben Carson is in second at 14%. Walker has slipped to 9%.  Bush is at 5% - and who really knows what they went through to make it so Bush isn't with "the rest of the candidates" at 3% or less?  Bush will never get the nomination. Ever.


www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/cnn-orc-poll-iowa-republican-caucus-data/index.html

i think Walker has a decent chance of winning the nomination.  and i think he would run better against anyone on the Democratic side than Trump.

[zibazinski]

Omg. Trump's wife is such a dimbass. Dim and dumb. I hear all this whining about how can we deport all these illegals? Super easy. No jobs, no welfare of any kind, no schooling. Basic medical care then deportation. Jail for any employer not using e-verify. Hear that Tyson execs? Anyone caught using an illegal for anything rots in jail the first time for 90 days. Second time 180 days. No fines. Fines are a joke

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 18:14:16 GMT -5 zibazinski said:

Omg. Trump's wife is such a dimbass. Dim and dumb. I hear all this whining about how can we deport all these illegals? Super easy. No jobs, no welfare of any kind, no schooling. Basic medical care then deportation. Jail for any employer not using e-verify. Hear that Tyson execs? Anyone caught using an illegal for anything rots in jail the first time for 90 days. Second time 180 days. No fines. Fines are a joke

i think it is way simpler than that.  just demand e-verify.  period.  end of issue.  done.

of course, we get a lot of citizen orphans out of that deal, but i presume we can deal with that problem, somehow.

[zibazinski]

Well, they can go home with the rest of their family No need to be an orphan. Someone gave birth to you.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 17, 2015 18:19:08 GMT -5 zibazinski said:

Well, they can go home with the rest of their family No need to be an orphan. Someone gave birth to you.

they are by no means required to do that tho, and their kids are generally US citizens.  so, yeah, we actually DO have to deal with it.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Aug 17, 2015 18:09:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 17, 2015 18:03:30 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Walker was leading in Iowa- until he got a challenger.  I like Walker a lot- I like a whole bunch of people better than Trump- but the sad fact is that right now, Trump leads in Iowa with 22% of likely caucus goers saying he's best able to handle the major issues. Ben Carson is in second at 14%. Walker has slipped to 9%.  Bush is at 5% - and who really knows what they went through to make it so Bush isn't with "the rest of the candidates" at 3% or less?  Bush will never get the nomination. Ever.


www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/cnn-orc-poll-iowa-republican-caucus-data/index.html

i think Walker has a decent chance of winning the nomination.  and i think he would run better against anyone on the Democratic side than Trump.

I think the story of the 2016 election is the pathetic Democrat side.  The GOP candidate might as well be running unopposed.  I think there's only a handful of ways the GOP could screw it up, the biggest being Jeb Bush, not Donald Trump.