Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on Sept 1, 2015 9:19:51 GMT -5
He was tied with Trump in Iowa polling. Hard to tell who will end up being the front runner.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2015 10:43:56 GMT -5
He was tied with Trump in Iowa polling. Hard to tell who will end up being the front runner. agreed. might be neither.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2015 10:46:22 GMT -5
he's got a 100% chance of winning the nomination right now. don't play it safe. Like Hillary, he is ahead in national polls. He does lead in Iowa, but he is not leading in every state. my point is that if the primary season started tomorrow, Trump would probably win. watching politics has made me realize that timing has a lot to do with it. it is not always the right candidate. it is the right candidate at the right time. ie, Christie would have done well in 2012. but he is doing SHI-TAY now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2015 11:04:53 GMT -5
That last point is huge dj- timing is huge in politics. It is not everything, because it cannot help a bad candidate. But without it a good candidate is sunk. the reason i like polling is that it shows what "might have happened". for example, in 2004, Kerry was recovering from the utterly ridiculous Swift Boat smear at the time of the election. he had gained about 3% in the polls in the month prior to the election, and the trend was good. if the election was held in DECEMBER, it is quite likely he would have won. getting scandals out of the way early will probably help Clinton. she is doing poorly now, but unless the wave of crap keeps up with her, she will surf it, and do a lot better later. that sort of thing.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 1, 2015 11:13:35 GMT -5
That last point is huge dj- timing is huge in politics. It is not everything, because it cannot help a bad candidate. But without it a good candidate is sunk. the reason i like polling is that it shows what "might have happened". for example, in 2004, Kerry was recovering from the utterly ridiculous Swift Boat smear at the time of the election. he had gained about 3% in the polls in the month prior to the election, and the trend was good. if the election was held in DECEMBER, it is quite likely he would have won. getting scandals out of the way early will probably help Clinton. she is doing poorly now, but unless the wave of crap keeps up with her, she will surf it, and do a lot better later. that sort of thing. Another total historical re-write. The "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" hurt Kerry because they told the truth. The absolute worst thing that can happen to any Democrat is someone somewhere telling the truth. More often than not, it's not even new, or particularly ground-breaking truth. Kerry throwing his medals over the White House fence, Kerry testifying before Congress stating under oath that abuses were commonplace.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 1, 2015 11:14:52 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2015 11:34:48 GMT -5
the reason i like polling is that it shows what "might have happened". for example, in 2004, Kerry was recovering from the utterly ridiculous Swift Boat smear at the time of the election. he had gained about 3% in the polls in the month prior to the election, and the trend was good. if the election was held in DECEMBER, it is quite likely he would have won. getting scandals out of the way early will probably help Clinton. she is doing poorly now, but unless the wave of crap keeps up with her, she will surf it, and do a lot better later. that sort of thing. Another total historical re-write. The "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" hurt Kerry because they told the truth. . nah. it was a bunch of bullshit. i don't have time for it, however, and this thread is about the GOP, so here are your references: Cogan, Brian; Kelso, Tony (2009). Encyclopedia of Politics, the Media, and Popular Culture. ABC-CLIO. pp. 155, 187, 335. ISBN 0-313-34379-9. Thomas, Evan (14 Nov 2004). "THE VETS ATTACK". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 2008-06-10. Retrieved 6 Feb 2013. i do find it disturbing that you still believe it. but not surprising. edit: if you don't like it, just ignore the "utterly ridiculous" part. the rest of the analysis doesn't depend on it.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 1, 2015 12:05:26 GMT -5
Another total historical re-write. The "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" hurt Kerry because they told the truth. . nah. it was a bunch of bullshit. i don't have time for it, however, and this thread is about the GOP, so here are your references: Cogan, Brian; Kelso, Tony (2009). Encyclopedia of Politics, the Media, and Popular Culture. ABC-CLIO. pp. 155, 187, 335. ISBN 0-313-34379-9. Thomas, Evan (14 Nov 2004). "THE VETS ATTACK". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 2008-06-10. Retrieved 6 Feb 2013. i do find it disturbing that you still believe it. but not surprising. edit: if you don't like it, just ignore the "utterly ridiculous" part. the rest of the analysis doesn't depend on it. It wasn't a smear is my point. If you don't like the word "truth" you could chalk it up to their opinions on his actions. But he did what they said he did.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2015 12:09:09 GMT -5
nah. it was a bunch of bullshit. i don't have time for it, however, and this thread is about the GOP, so here are your references: Cogan, Brian; Kelso, Tony (2009). Encyclopedia of Politics, the Media, and Popular Culture. ABC-CLIO. pp. 155, 187, 335. ISBN 0-313-34379-9. Thomas, Evan (14 Nov 2004). "THE VETS ATTACK". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 2008-06-10. Retrieved 6 Feb 2013. i do find it disturbing that you still believe it. but not surprising. edit: if you don't like it, just ignore the "utterly ridiculous" part. the rest of the analysis doesn't depend on it. It wasn't a smear is my point. If you don't like the word "truth" you could chalk it up to their opinions on his actions. But he did what they said he did. fine, delete the word "smear" too. it was ALSO irrelevant to my point. i would be happy to argue the Swift Boat Liars elsewhere, however. edit: i dug into this matter pretty deeply at the time, because i thought it was politically interesting. still do.
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andreawick
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Post by andreawick on Sept 2, 2015 9:18:44 GMT -5
It's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I want persons other than Bush and Clinton to get the nominations. Bush will not be the nominee. He's not even close in a single important primary state. Bush will not be the nominee. Do not doubt me. Ever. I don't normally doubt you Paul, but I swear 4 years ago you told me that Obama wouldn't win a 2nd term -- and ended it with "Do not doubt me. Ever"
I didn't doubt you then.....but now....well, it's just harder to have the faith this time??!! D'oh!!
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 3, 2015 8:17:40 GMT -5
Bush will not be the nominee. He's not even close in a single important primary state. Bush will not be the nominee. Do not doubt me. Ever. I don't normally doubt you Paul, but I swear 4 years ago you told me that Obama wouldn't win a 2nd term -- and ended it with "Do not doubt me. Ever"
I didn't doubt you then.....but now....well, it's just harder to have the faith this time??!! D'oh!!
Yeah- I know. I said it that way as self effacing humor. But I seriously think Bush is done. The whole theory of his candidacy no longer works. The way it was supposed to go down is that he was supposed to be the front runner, he was the big dog, the top fundraiser, and he was supposed to walk onto the scene in the lead and then use his money advantage to fend off some insurgent candidate or other from the right, but basically never not be the front runner. You can tell by his almost laughable statement, "I've got libertarian blood running through my veins" which was reminiscent of Romney's "I was a severely conservative governor" remarks. Then there's these awkward and ineffective grenades he's lobbing at Trump, that the Bush camp never had a plan to run as the underdog. They're floundering running from behind, and maybe there'll be a little pop in the short term, but long term it trivializes him and makes him look a lot like "one of the pack"- which doesn't work when your whole campaign was supposed to be, "OK, everyone relax. The big dog is here. I'm the serious, steady-hand on the rudder in a raucous sea of inexperience and right wing extremism". I think when you don't have a plan to campaign as anything but the front runner, and you're not, the underlying arrogance that gave birth to that assumption will ultimately be your undoing.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 3, 2015 9:53:04 GMT -5
I don't normally doubt you Paul, but I swear 4 years ago you told me that Obama wouldn't win a 2nd term -- and ended it with "Do not doubt me. Ever"
I didn't doubt you then.....but now....well, it's just harder to have the faith this time??!! D'oh!!
Yeah- I know. I said it that way as self effacing humor. But I seriously think Bush is done. The whole theory of his candidacy no longer works. The way it was supposed to go down is that he was supposed to be the front runner, he was the big dog, the top fundraiser, and he was supposed to walk onto the scene in the lead and then use his money advantage to fend off some insurgent candidate or other from the right, but basically never not be the front runner. . you had me until "never". Romney was not always the front runner. in fact, he was the front runner LESS THAN HALF THE TIME, due to not one, not two, not three, but FOUR challengers taking the lead from him at various times. i still don't think it is over for Bush. but if Trump is still leading on Thanksgiving, i will change my tune.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 3, 2015 10:34:59 GMT -5
Yeah- I know. I said it that way as self effacing humor. But I seriously think Bush is done. The whole theory of his candidacy no longer works. The way it was supposed to go down is that he was supposed to be the front runner, he was the big dog, the top fundraiser, and he was supposed to walk onto the scene in the lead and then use his money advantage to fend off some insurgent candidate or other from the right, but basically never not be the front runner. . you had me until "never". Romney was not always the front runner. in fact, he was the front runner LESS THAN HALF THE TIME, due to not one, not two, not three, but FOUR challengers taking the lead from him at various times. i still don't think it is over for Bush. but if Trump is still leading on Thanksgiving, i will change my tune. He lost in some states, but he always consistently led nationally. The states that went to Gingrich for example, were regarded as "upsets".
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 3, 2015 10:37:39 GMT -5
Makes sense. Pandering to evangelical christian pro-lifers during the primaries keeps costing them the general election. That's a completely unfounded theory. If you want to know where the Reagan Democrats are- they are Christian conservatives waiting for a GOP candidate that isn't going to shit on them. The GOP has a built-in, almost permanent national election majority sitting waiting to be tapped into. Ann Coulter is obnoxious, but she's right: The GOP could win every national election from now until the end of time with a candidate that appealed to predominantly Christian conservatives. By the numbers, it is not conservative candidates turning off the great unwashed during the general election- because there hasn't been a conservative candidate since 1984. The GOP loses when conservatives sit it out. They'll win when they can motivate the TEA Party / Christian conservative base. This is not theory. The last GOP landslide could accurately be described as the Christian Coalition election of 1980.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 3, 2015 10:44:11 GMT -5
you had me until "never". Romney was not always the front runner. in fact, he was the front runner LESS THAN HALF THE TIME, due to not one, not two, not three, but FOUR challengers taking the lead from him at various times. i still don't think it is over for Bush. but if Trump is still leading on Thanksgiving, i will change my tune. He lost in some states, but he always consistently led nationally. The states that went to Gingrich for example, were regarded as "upsets". these are the national polls, Paul: he trailed Bachman in one poll in July, then he trailed Perry for six weeks, then he trailed Cain for a month (you can't possibly have forgotten that), then he trailed Gingrich TWICE- throughout the end of 2011, and briefly in 2012, then he trailed Santorum in February. he took the lead pretty much as the primary season actually started, and never lost it- but he spent about half of 2011 in 2nd place.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 4, 2015 11:56:35 GMT -5
I like him. He's soft spoken and sounds intelligent and not full of bluster like...some other candidates (from both sides of the aisle). My heart is still with Ron Paul because of his libertarian streak, but if Dr. Carson was the nominee I wouldn't have any problem with voting for him. He ranks #2 with me. i don't really like him. he says some really stupid things. but as a candidate, i like him better than Trump.
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fishy999
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 4, 2015 23:19:01 GMT -5
Carson or Trump will never be president or vice president.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 18, 2015 23:14:14 GMT -5
topping: i think Carson is going to overtake Trump.
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 18, 2015 23:19:42 GMT -5
Carson will never win the election. One poster once said that Obama was such a bad president, a black man would not be elected president again for generations.
ETA: Don't doubt that poster. Ever.
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 18, 2015 23:21:20 GMT -5
topping: i think Carson is going to overtake Trump. Probably- but neither will ever set foot in the white house without an invitation or paid tour pass.
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on Sept 19, 2015 13:22:35 GMT -5
Carson or Trump will never be president or vice president. Why?
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on Sept 19, 2015 13:32:31 GMT -5
Makes sense. Pandering to evangelical christian pro-lifers during the primaries keeps costing them the general election. There are evangelical pro-lifers who vote for both parties. I don't see how "pandering" as you put it to that group is different than any other group. The biggest issue republicans have right now is overcoming the nonsense that democrats have spouted so much that many believe it to be true about republicans being racist, sexist, etc. It's so bad that it's amazing (not in a good way) all the attacks and names an AA republican candidate is called....and as long as there is that nonsense belief that voting or beign republican somehow makes a person "less black" or some type of "uncle tom," it's going to be hard to break down that barrier. I think it'll change for the better eventually because enough people will stop believing stupid nonsense like that and we'll see more a split between the two parties from people of all demographics.
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Post by marvholly on Sept 20, 2015 5:48:45 GMT -5
People need to learn/look up the acual definition of choice. It comes down to having options to decide between.
I am infinatly glad I NEVER personally had to make such a decision. However, there is NO WAY I am qualified to make that decision for anyone else. IMHO that is EXACTLY what choice is about. Each individual's right to decide the option for themselves.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2015 7:11:21 GMT -5
There are states, and candidates, supporting 'no abortuon for genetic annomolies' bans.... That goes against MY religious/spiritual beliefs. It makes me livid.
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Post by deziloooooo on Sept 20, 2015 10:09:50 GMT -5
Dr. Walker , imho did very well in the debate and I admit I knew very little about him and his views..actually on most of these folks...being a middle to the left typre person but I did do a google on the Doctor.. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_CarsonFirst off..many is a brillient man and has done exceptional work in his field..medicine... Some of his views I can agree with or understand and see where he is coming from..On others , not so , in fact his feelings on how we came about being here to me are really koo koo..but if he just held them for himself and didn't look to push them as law of the land and such I guess I could live with that..we all have the right to be koo koo on some subjects IMHO....as long as they don't hurt others. Not so great his latest that just came out on not believing some one who was a Moslem should be POTUS....to broad and specific...condemns all..not my cup of tea. Actually since I normally wouldn't vote GOP ever...makes me shudder thinking about it...they seem to be scared a lot and hate the idea of growth and change as well as other things...his candency or not..I am not the one to ask...Just saying.....[ Do I think the Dems have all the answers.. Absolutly not.....not even close....
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Sept 20, 2015 10:47:01 GMT -5
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 20, 2015 11:39:52 GMT -5
He will zoom past Trump with that comment.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 20, 2015 11:41:37 GMT -5
Who is being polled? If it likely Republican primary voters, it will help him. If the polls is the general population, I don't think it will have much net effect.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 20, 2015 12:18:51 GMT -5
So Dr. Carson is willing to discriminate based on religious preference and poop on the 1st amendment?!?! NNHHNNHHHNN...disqualified.
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