The Official 2024 Presidential Thread

[Knee Deep in Water Chloe]

Dec 21, 2022 12:11:22 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 21, 2022 11:41:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am discounting choice of candidate, obviously.  i think Trump is a uniquely bad choice for president.  the Democrats could run an overcooked waffle for president, imo.

I agree Trump is unique in his badness, but there are Democrats who are far enough left that would make them a difficult choice for middle-of-the-road voters to put an X by their name.

That's almost verbatim what DH says. 

[djAdvocate]

Dec 22, 2022 11:11:37 GMT -5 Knee Deep in Water Chloe said:

Dec 21, 2022 12:11:22 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I agree Trump is unique in his badness, but there are Democrats who are far enough left that would make them a difficult choice for middle-of-the-road voters to put an X by their name.

That's almost verbatim what DH says. 

that might be cover.  asking (innocently): what Democrat would DH vote for?

[Knee Deep in Water Chloe]

Oh, he voted for Biden. He doesn't want Biden to run again. 
He would likely vote for Buttigieg or Klobuchar. 
At this point, we'd both probably vote for Romney. 
He wouldn't vote Sanders. (I did.)

[Cheesy FL-Vol]

Dec 22, 2022 11:39:40 GMT -5 Knee Deep in Water Chloe said:

Oh, he voted for Biden. He doesn't want Biden to run again. 
He would likely vote for Buttigieg or Klobuchar. 
At this point, we'd both probably vote for Romney. 
He wouldn't vote Sanders. (I did.)

I am on the same page, but I am not sold on Klobuchar.

[tbop77]

Former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president in 2024, officially joining the GOP primary field to challenge former President Donald Trump for the nomination.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mike-pence-files-paperwork-for-2024-presidential-run-joining-trump-in-gop-field/ar-AA15GDFf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=743a14d428014b2480b8ca11e1eea42e

Poor Mike, he really thinks he has a chance to be President.  After not fighting like hell for Trump to overturn the election for him, the MAGA crowd will never forgive him.  

[irishpad]

A question for those who voted for Biden in the last election but don't want him to run in 2024?   Is it mostly because of his age?  If so, I understand that but I also think he has the best chance of winning and if he dies in office, at least we still have the office in Democratic hands.  He has accomplished (with razor thin majorities) some significant legislative victories such the infrastructure bill (which was always going to happen in the next two weeks in Trump world).   Why abandon someone who is actually getting things done?   

[djAdvocate]

NOTE: he is expected to outlive Trump, even though he is three years older.

Trump is fat and old.  Biden is just old.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 21, 2022 10:26:12 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 21, 2022 5:11:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

correct.  so the question THEN becomes: could he win the same states that got him elected last time?

i would entertain serious doubt about that.  Michigan has gone wildly blue since his election.  PA?  it is hard to imagine that as a Trump state now.  even Arizona is cause for question.  

in short, i think all of the purple states he got are not likely wins for him.

If it were possible to vote against Trump, he wouldn't stand a chance. However, that is not how it works. One must vote for someone. Obviously the Democrats chose wisely in 2020. Would they again in 2024? That will be a major issue if Trump gets the GOP nomination.

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

[pulmonarymd]

I think that is the consequence of our primary system and the gerrymandering that is allowed. You have to appeal to the most radical voters to get to the general election, which leads to people being horrified by one side. Not sure how we fix this, since the base of both parties likely reaches 50% of all voters. They have no reason or desire to change. It is all about winning now, not about solving problems

[billisonboard]

It isn't exactly Biden's age for me. I think there is a time for each generation to step aside for the next. An example, my wife and I are ready to have a kid take over hosting Christmas. Unfortunately, neither have a home with space to do so. I was excited with the election of Obama as the first president younger than I was at the time he won and a bit bummed when we were going back to older in 2016. At least there was the possibility of a first female. I knew Biden was necessary in 2020 but had no enthusiasm for him then.

[billisonboard]

Dec 27, 2022 9:43:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 21, 2022 10:26:12 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

If it were possible to vote against Trump, he wouldn't stand a chance. However, that is not how it works. One must vote for someone. Obviously the Democrats chose wisely in 2020. Would they again in 2024? That will be a major issue if Trump gets the GOP nomination.

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

From one nerd to another, would love to see the wording of the poll questions.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 27, 2022 10:05:13 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 27, 2022 9:43:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

From one nerd to another, would love to see the wording of the poll questions.

i got the percent wrong on Bush.  it was 31%:


YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT WAS MOSTLY...

BUSH

KERRY

TOTAL

2004

2000

2004



For Your Candidate (71%)

59%

n/a

40%



Against His Opponent (25%)

31%

n/a

68%

[NomoreDramaQ1015]

Dec 27, 2022 8:28:58 GMT -5 irishpad said:

A question for those who voted for Biden in the last election but don't want him to run in 2024?   Is it mostly because of his age?  If so, I understand that but I also think he has the best chance of winning and if he dies in office, at least we still have the office in Democratic hands.  He has accomplished (with razor thin majorities) some significant legislative victories such the infrastructure bill (which was always going to happen in the next two weeks in Trump world).   Why abandon someone who is actually getting things done?   

I'm not against Biden running exactly if he has the best shot of beating Trump again I will hold my nose and vote for him.

But I am getting tired of super old rich white dudes running the country.  It's way overdue that this generation start stepping aside and let the "young" people start running things.  I am getting tired of waiting for things to change one funeral at a time.

Pete is still a white dude but at least he's younger than 70+ and we would get the first LBGTQ+ president so that is a win.  I would prefer a female president myself but I unfortunately am starting to believe that will never happen in my lifetime.   As VP you would think that Kamala would be the next logical choice but IDK in the current climate even with being VP if a minority female candidate could win, especially against Trump who will pull out all the stops like he did with Obama.

And it disgusts me that I even typed that but that's the sad reality of America in 2023.   I HATE that my choices continue to come down to the old rich white dude I hate the least.

[Tennesseer]

Dec 27, 2022 8:00:32 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

Former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president in 2024, officially joining the GOP primary field to challenge former President Donald Trump for the nomination.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mike-pence-files-paperwork-for-2024-presidential-run-joining-trump-in-gop-field/ar-AA15GDFf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=743a14d428014b2480b8ca11e1eea42e

Poor Mike, he really thinks he has a chance to be President.  After not fighting like hell for Trump to overturn the election for him, the MAGA crowd will never forgive him.  

Mike Pence did not file paperwork to run in 2024, spokesperson says

WASHINGTON – Former Vice President Mike Pence did not file to run for president for 2024 on Monday after hoax screenshots of a Federal Election Commission posting began circulating online, according to his spokesperson.

“Former Vice President Mike Pence did not file to run for President today,” Devin O’Malley, Pence’s spokesperson, wrote on Twitter.

The screenshot of the FEC filing, which appears to be fake, was filed under “Mike Richard Pence” and included a post office box address from Anderson, Ind. Pence’s full first name is “Michael." The address has been used previously by Pence in past filings.

Rest of article here: Mike Pence did not file paperwork to run in 2024, spokesperson says

[djAdvocate]

Dec 27, 2022 10:31:55 GMT -5 NomoreDramaQ1015 said:

Dec 27, 2022 8:28:58 GMT -5 irishpad said:

A question for those who voted for Biden in the last election but don't want him to run in 2024?   Is it mostly because of his age?  If so, I understand that but I also think he has the best chance of winning and if he dies in office, at least we still have the office in Democratic hands.  He has accomplished (with razor thin majorities) some significant legislative victories such the infrastructure bill (which was always going to happen in the next two weeks in Trump world).   Why abandon someone who is actually getting things done?   

I'm not against Biden running exactly if he has the best shot of beating Trump again I will hold my nose and vote for him.

But I am getting tired of super old rich white dudes running the country.  

i am not sure that Biden is rich.  but he is not exactly middle class, either.

[billisonboard]

Dec 27, 2022 10:17:49 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 27, 2022 10:05:13 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

From one nerd to another, would love to see the wording of the poll questions.

i got the percent wrong on Bush.  it was 31%:


YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT WAS MOSTLY...

BUSH

KERRY

TOTAL

2004

2000

2004



For Your Candidate (71%)

59%

n/a

40%



Against His Opponent (25%)

31%

n/a

68%

with that layout, hard to be sure what is being reported. What do the "(71%)" and "(25%)" represent?

How about this interpretation: 71% voted for their candidate, 25% against their opponent. Of the 71%, 59% voted for Bush/40% voted for Kerry. Of the 25%, 31% voted for Bush/68% for Kerry.

Otherwise, 40% of Kerry's vote total was for him and 68% was against Bush.

[djAdvocate]

the latter.  68% of Kerry voters were voting against Bush.
in other words, Kerry was far more disliked than Bush.  in Ohio.
which turned out to be the deciding state in 2004.

[billisonboard]

Dec 27, 2022 11:00:34 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the latter.  68% of Kerry voters were voting against Bush.
in other words, Kerry was far more disliked than Bush.  in Ohio.
which turned out to be the deciding state in 2004.

And 40% of Kerry's voters were voting for Kerry? 68 + 40 = 108. Doesn't work well with percentages. I think you are reading it wrong. Can you provide a link?

[djAdvocate]

Dec 27, 2022 11:29:08 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 27, 2022 11:00:34 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the latter.  68% of Kerry voters were voting against Bush.
in other words, Kerry was far more disliked than Bush.  in Ohio.
which turned out to be the deciding state in 2004.

And 40% of Kerry's voters were voting for Kerry? 68 + 40 = 108. Doesn't work well with percentages. I think you are reading it wrong. Can you provide a link?

no.  well, no for now.  but you can find it by typing in Google "Ohio Exit Polls 2004".  a CNN link shows up, and takes you right to the poll.

the Bush poll is also showing 90%.  since the word "mostly" was used, it allows for a bit of wiggle on the two samples.

i am sorry that i can't cooperate more than this, bills.  i have meetings all morning, and can't take any time out for tracking that link down.

best wishes.

[swamp]

Dec 27, 2022 10:31:55 GMT -5 NomoreDramaQ1015 said:

Dec 27, 2022 8:28:58 GMT -5 irishpad said:

A question for those who voted for Biden in the last election but don't want him to run in 2024?   Is it mostly because of his age?  If so, I understand that but I also think he has the best chance of winning and if he dies in office, at least we still have the office in Democratic hands.  He has accomplished (with razor thin majorities) some significant legislative victories such the infrastructure bill (which was always going to happen in the next two weeks in Trump world).   Why abandon someone who is actually getting things done?   

I'm not against Biden running exactly if he has the best shot of beating Trump again I will hold my nose and vote for him.

But I am getting tired of super old rich white dudes running the country.  It's way overdue that this generation start stepping aside and let the "young" people start running things.  I am getting tired of waiting for things to change one funeral at a time.

Pete is still a white dude but at least he's younger than 70+ and we would get the first LBGTQ+ president so that is a win.  I would prefer a female president myself but I unfortunately am starting to believe that will never happen in my lifetime.   As VP you would think that Kamala would be the next logical choice but IDK in the current climate even with being VP if a minority female candidate could win, especially against Trump who will pull out all the stops like he did with Obama.

And it disgusts me that I even typed that but that's the sad reality of America in 2023.   I HATE that my choices continue to come down to the old rich white dude I hate the least.

I'm Gen X and I'm starting to feel like Prince Charles.   Just waiting for the older generation to go away. 

[billisonboard]

Dec 27, 2022 11:36:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 27, 2022 11:29:08 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

And 40% of Kerry's voters were voting for Kerry? 68 + 40 = 108. Doesn't work well with percentages. I think you are reading it wrong. Can you provide a link?

no.  well, no for now.  but you can find it by typing in Google "Ohio Exit Polls 2004".  a CNN link shows up, and takes you right to the poll.

the Bush poll is also showing 90%.  since the word "mostly" was used, it allows for a bit of wiggle on the two samples.

i am sorry that i can't cooperate more than this, bills.  i have meetings all morning, and can't take any time out for tracking that link down.

best wishes.

got it: www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

And this was on that page as well: www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/misc/howtoread.html

The first column of numbers shows how many people who voted today fell into each category. ... All other figures show how each category voted.

So, as I interpreted.

[dondub]

Dec 27, 2022 11:38:29 GMT -5 swamp said:

Dec 27, 2022 10:31:55 GMT -5 NomoreDramaQ1015 said:

I'm not against Biden running exactly if he has the best shot of beating Trump again I will hold my nose and vote for him.

But I am getting tired of super old rich white dudes running the country.  It's way overdue that this generation start stepping aside and let the "young" people start running things.  I am getting tired of waiting for things to change one funeral at a time.

Pete is still a white dude but at least he's younger than 70+ and we would get the first LBGTQ+ president so that is a win.  I would prefer a female president myself but I unfortunately am starting to believe that will never happen in my lifetime.   As VP you would think that Kamala would be the next logical choice but IDK in the current climate even with being VP if a minority female candidate could win, especially against Trump who will pull out all the stops like he did with Obama.

And it disgusts me that I even typed that but that's the sad reality of America in 2023.   I HATE that my choices continue to come down to the old rich white dude I hate the least.

I'm Gen X and I'm starting to feel like Prince Charles.   Just waiting for the older generation to go away. 

Well I’m boomer and keep waiting for your Gen to step up with a viable candidate.😎

[dondub]

Dec 27, 2022 9:43:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 21, 2022 10:26:12 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

If it were possible to vote against Trump, he wouldn't stand a chance. However, that is not how it works. One must vote for someone. Obviously the Democrats chose wisely in 2020. Would they again in 2024? That will be a major issue if Trump gets the GOP nomination.

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

I personally started that in ‘72 when the voting age was lowered. This allowed my first anti vote. Against Nixxon.

[Tennesseer]

Dec 27, 2022 12:40:24 GMT -5 dondub said:

Dec 27, 2022 11:38:29 GMT -5 swamp said:

I'm Gen X and I'm starting to feel like Prince Charles.   Just waiting for the older generation to go away. 

Well I’m boomer and keep waiting for your Gen to step up with a viable candidate.😎

Ditto.

[Tennesseer]

Dec 27, 2022 12:42:07 GMT -5 dondub said:

Dec 27, 2022 9:43:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

I personally started that in ‘72 when the voting age was lowered. This allowed my first anti vote. Against Nixxon.

Ditto again.

[tallguy]

Dec 27, 2022 12:42:07 GMT -5 dondub said:

Dec 27, 2022 9:43:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

I personally started that in ‘72 when the voting age was lowered. This allowed my first anti vote. Against Nixxon.

Yeah, that whole Viet Nam War thing was kind of a downer.  On the other hand, I now call Nixon the last good Republican president.  That is CERTAINLY an indictment of those who came after him, and it does require one to divorce Nixon's personal demons from his accomplishments, but things do change over time.

[billisonboard]

Dec 27, 2022 12:42:07 GMT -5 dondub said:

Dec 27, 2022 9:43:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i know you were being literal here, but it actually IS how it works.

i just read the Ohio Exit Polls from 2004.  i know.  nerdy.

what they show is that MOST (like 70%) of Kerry's support was anti-Bush.
and MOST (over half) of Bush's was anti-Kerry.

in other words, elections really HAVE become who you vote against.

I personally started that in ‘72 when the voting age was lowered. This allowed my first anti vote. Against Nixxon.

Would it have been possible for the Republican Party to nominate a person you would have voted for? Yeah, we all to a degree vote "against" but to make it meaningful there needs to be a possibility of a switch. There is no one the Democrats could nominate in 2024 who will not get my vote if Trump is the GOP nominee. Therefore in this discussion, I am irrelevant. There are people who will not vote for a Democrat who is too (in their opinion) far left. They would be relevant. They would either not vote or vote for Republican nominee Trump.

[dondub]

Dec 27, 2022 13:34:30 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 27, 2022 12:42:07 GMT -5 dondub said:

I personally started that in ‘72 when the voting age was lowered. This allowed my first anti vote. Against Nixxon.

Would it have been possible for the Republican Party to nominate a person you would have voted for? Yeah, we all to a degree vote "against" but to make it meaningful there needs to be a possibility of a switch. There is no one the Democrats could nominate in 2024 who will not get my vote if Trump is the GOP nominee. Therefore in this discussion, I am irrelevant. There are people who will not vote for a Democrat who is too (in their opinion) far left. They would be relevant. They would either not vote or vote for Republican nominee Trump.

Not in ‘72. They were all warmongers. And at age 20 I was prime beef on the hood for their war machine. My high lottery number was excellent.

And I can agree somewhat with tallguy and his current analysis of Tricky Dick. No Repo-con since has come even close.

[djAdvocate]

interesting exchange.

[billisonboard]

In 2012, I did vote against. And who was nominated did make a difference. Obama had pissed me off with his escalated in Afghanistan. I decided I could live with a Romney presidency. I voted third party.