djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 18, 2022 11:41:44 GMT -5
No, no, no. Werewolves kill vampires! (According to Mr. Walker.) Although vampires are cool. and well dressed. like Warnock, apparently.
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scgal
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Post by scgal on Nov 18, 2022 11:58:01 GMT -5
So now we know what the Republican house wants to get done for the American people. Investigate Hunter Biden. Investigate the father son Biden criminal alliance. Investigate Pelosi. Investigate why Pelosi allowed the Capital security to be so bad a bunch of sight seers were able to get in the capital. Investigate how badly the poor sightseers were treated while in custody (and was Pelosi responsibile). Investigate the DOJ. Investigate the CDC. Investigate Fauci. In short, the Republican House will not do a damned thing for Americans. It will be Benghazi Bengazhi Bengazhi amplified by a thousand. Taxpayers, pay attention, I hope.
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azucena
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Post by azucena on Nov 18, 2022 14:46:41 GMT -5
SQUIRREL
she couldn't even capture a thought
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 19, 2022 1:47:56 GMT -5
it is still 218-212. stuck there. like i say, i expect the GOP to end up with 220+, but no movement, yet.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 19, 2022 1:53:42 GMT -5
oh, i have one more interesting set of races: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-us-election-results/alaska/so, i have not mentioned this for a while. it is possible that ALL THREE RACES here will require IRV. the Governor race is pretty clear. it is impossible to imagine a scenario where Dunleavy (R) doesn't win, imo. and he may very well win outright. the other two races are both going to be decided by IRV. in the Senate, we have Murkowski slowly gaining on her Trumpy opponent, Tshibaka. it is likely, imo, that she will pass her and move into first place, but it won't really matter for IRV, since it is impossible in this case for the bottom three candidates to compete for first. it seems quite unlikely to me that the DEMOCRATIC vote in this election will vote for Tshibaka. therefore, i am predicting that Murkowski will win in the THIRD round of IRV. and then we have the "at large" House race. Petola is the incumbent, and might win outright. but if she doesn't, it again seems quite likely that she will win in the third round of IRV, bumping out Sarah Palin, who is currently running 2nd. 90% of the vote is in, here, so this might not happen this week. very little change here, but Murkowski is now in first. it still looks like this might be headed for RCV on all three races. 97% of the vote is counted.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Nov 19, 2022 8:51:28 GMT -5
it is still 118-112. stuck there. like i say, i expect the GOP to end up with 120+, but no movement, yet. I think you missed a few....
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Nov 19, 2022 9:31:55 GMT -5
What’s 100 reps among friends!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 19, 2022 11:21:15 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 19, 2022 16:41:16 GMT -5
it is still 118-112. stuck there. like i say, i expect the GOP to end up with 120+, but no movement, yet. I think you missed a few.... LOL. hahaha. tonight we're gonna party like it's 1899.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 19, 2022 18:26:43 GMT -5
ok, so i read a little about some of the super close races that will get recounted. Boebert's race, for example, must be resolved prior to December 13th. so, we might be waiting a while on that. i don't know how the automatic runoff works in Alaska. in ME it is already complete, and the Democrat won, there. his vote was similar in size to that of the Democrat in AK, so i am guessing that one will resolve similarly. in short, we MIGHT know about the GA runoff race before some of the House races are resolved. which sounds counter-intuitive to me. if you want to watch that race, R2W is covering it! (they actually did better than 538 this cycle, favoring Democrats to win the Senate): www.racetothewh.com/georgiai don't believe there are any actual polls in this (runoff) race. if i am wrong, please post them on this thread.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 19, 2022 18:36:02 GMT -5
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Nov 19, 2022 18:51:35 GMT -5
I saw that. Glad you got to it and decided to post it.
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moon/Laura
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Post by moon/Laura on Nov 20, 2022 11:16:31 GMT -5
ok, so i read a little about some of the super close races that will get recounted. Boebert's race, for example, must be resolved prior to December 13th. so, we might be waiting a while on that. i don't know how the automatic runoff works in Alaska. in ME it is already complete, and the Democrat won, there. his vote was similar in size to that of the Democrat in AK, so i am guessing that one will resolve similarly. in short, we MIGHT know about the GA runoff race before some of the House races are resolved. which sounds counter-intuitive to me. if you want to watch that race, R2W is covering it! (they actually did better than 538 this cycle, favoring Democrats to win the Senate): www.racetothewh.com/georgiai don't believe there are any actual polls in this (runoff) race. if i am wrong, please post them on this thread. Her opponent conceded on Friday. I was so disappointed.
www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/us/politics/lauren-boebert-colorado-frisch.html
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2022 13:54:17 GMT -5
he seems like a good man, who has the interests of CO3 in mind.
yeah, disappointing.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 22, 2022 6:41:02 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2022 16:17:15 GMT -5
at a certain point, the dog can be heard barking in the background, i believe. yes?
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 25, 2022 7:45:42 GMT -5
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 29, 2022 13:39:27 GMT -5
James Donald Holkeboer is a registered Republican. Testimony: Poll worker admitted to using USB drive
GAINES TOWNSHIP, Mich. (WOOD) — A poll worker charged with violating election law admitted he used a personal flash drive to export the electronic poll book at a Gaines Township precinct, according to testimony Monday. Kent County Sheriff’s Detective Christopher Goehring testified he asked the defendant, James Donald Holkeboer, how he would have felt if he’d seen another poll worker do what he had done. Goehring reported Holkeboer said if it were someone from his political party, he would not be concerned by the activity. However, if it were a worker from the other party, he would question it, Goehring testified Holkeboer had told him. “(That) blows my mind,” said 63rd District Court Judge Sara Smolenksi, referring to Holkeboer’s party-dependent answer. The Republican Party of Kent County had Holkeboer listed as an alternate delegate for the 3rd Congressional District for the Michigan Republican Party State Endorsement Convention on its website. Smolenski ruled there’s enough probable cause to bind the case against Holkeboer over to Kent County Circuit Court for trial. Court documents list the two felony charges against Holkeboer as election law – falsifying returns/records and using a computer to commit a crime Goehring testified Holkeboer told him he’d obtained the poll book so he could compare it against documents he planned to acquire after the primary through the Freedom of Information Act. Holkeboer said he was trying to identify discrepancies, according to Goehring’s testimony. Holkeboer was a poll worker in the Aug. 2 primary for Precinct 8, which was located at Ada Bible Church on 68th Street SE. Gaines Township Clerk Michael Brew testified at Monday’s hearing that he did not learn of Holkeboer’s alleged actions until two weeks after primary day. Brew testified it was at that point that another election worker reported she had witnessed Holkeboer insert a flash drive into the USB port on the laptop or electronic poll book. The book contains voter information and is used to verify a voter’s registration prior to issuing their ballot. Brew said the worker who witnessed Holkeboer putting a flash drive into the laptop said she’d gone on vacation after the primary and felt “guilty” about not reporting what she had seen. Holkeboer’s attorney, Chip Chamberlain, argued the simple act of copying an electronic poll book is not spelled out as one of the criminal violations in the election law statute. Holkeboer’s actions did not impact the outcome of the election in any way. The election law violation is a felony punishable by up to five years in prison if convicted. Using a computer to commit a crime carries up to four years upon conviction. Testimony: Poll worker admitted to using USB drive
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 30, 2022 15:19:02 GMT -5
Record setting early voting in Georgia for senate.
Fingers crossed the Dems are showing up so the senate can ignore Manchin.
Also please God don’t let my reps be Walker and MTG - too much for one poor independent voter to bear.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2022 15:47:43 GMT -5
the odds on this race have been up and down since November 7th (mostly up) but are generally about 5:2 favourite Warnock.
the thing that has caused the odds to dip a bit is a couple of (AGAIN) low quality polls that favor Walker. i could play the game i did before the last round of this and say that pollster should know what they are doing, so this race might be close, but i don't actually think it is that close.
i expect Warnock to win. Walker is about as Senatorial as a can of tuna.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 30, 2022 16:07:35 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2022 16:13:09 GMT -5
And what's this about Walker's home is in Texas? it's pretty funny, actually. he claimed a $1,500 exemption for his house in Texas which is ONLY doable if it is your "primary residence". i think that GA requires that your primary residence be in GA for you to run for Senate. so, either he committed tax fraud, or he lied about his residency. it is actually fairly minor, really. mostly hilarious.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 30, 2022 16:21:49 GMT -5
And what's this about Walker's home is in Texas? it's pretty funny, actually. he claimed a $1,500 exemption for his house in Texas which is ONLY doable if it is your "primary residence". i think that GA requires that your primary residence be in GA for you to run for Senate. so, either he committed tax fraud, or he lied about his residency. it is actually fairly minor, really. mostly hilarious. Yeah he moved back to Georgia to run. Bet he’ll go right back to Texas if he loses. Don’t know how strict GA is on residency or if this will be like Dr Oz having houses in New Jersey.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Dec 2, 2022 7:41:01 GMT -5
I wonder if Trump is coaching Walker. He is actively lying on things of no importance. Apparently, he has been saying he beat Obama at basketball even though they have never met. This feels like a Trump thing where pretend physical capabilities are supposed to mean something. No one is going to make good laws or help their voters by playing bball against someone not even in the federal government, but I can see this working on those who like the idea of beating Obama at something even if it is fake.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 4, 2022 9:24:34 GMT -5
R2W has Warnock at 4:1 favourite to win: www.racetothewh.com/georgiathe Survey USA poll is quite good, and shows him +4%. this poll echoes the findings of two previous low quality polls. 538 is hemming and hawing and second guessing themselves. they are offering no guidance on this race. edit: 538 didn't do too well this time in the predictive market. R2W beat them. they were especially wrong about GA.
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Post by Opti on Dec 4, 2022 10:16:26 GMT -5
This was pretty funny and probably something part of the GOP would love to do.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Dec 6, 2022 17:54:49 GMT -5
R2W has Warnock at 4:1 favourite to win: www.racetothewh.com/georgiathe Survey USA poll is quite good, and shows him +4%. this poll echoes the findings of two previous low quality polls. 538 is hemming and hawing and second guessing themselves. they are offering no guidance on this race. edit: 538 didn't do too well this time in the predictive market. R2W beat them. they were especially wrong about GA. Cold and rainy day for us here in Georgia (well, cold for us anyway) but turnout has been high. Pollsters saying we ‘lean democratic.’ Doing my best positive thoughts to avoid the embarrassment of a Senator Walker.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Dec 6, 2022 18:23:19 GMT -5
R2W has Warnock at 4:1 favourite to win: www.racetothewh.com/georgiathe Survey USA poll is quite good, and shows him +4%. this poll echoes the findings of two previous low quality polls. 538 is hemming and hawing and second guessing themselves. they are offering no guidance on this race. edit: 538 didn't do too well this time in the predictive market. R2W beat them. they were especially wrong about GA. Cold and rainy day for us here in Georgia (well, cold for us anyway) but turnout has been high. Pollsters saying we ‘lean democratic.’ Doing my best positive thoughts to avoid the embarrassment of a Senator Walker. Fingers crossed for Warnock.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Dec 6, 2022 22:12:14 GMT -5
Walker could win this thing 🥴
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gs11rmb
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Post by gs11rmb on Dec 6, 2022 22:37:08 GMT -5
I’m pretty sure I posted a similar message two years ago: as a resident of Atlanta’s DeKalb County I’d just like to say … you’re welcome 😛
Congrats to Senator Warnock!
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