billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 14, 2022 8:58:30 GMT -5
One, Georgia state law states that there will be a runoff if no candidate gets 50%. There is no such provision in Nevada law. Secondly, when an election is "called", that is done by the media and has no force of law. Legally, elections are certified by state election officials which is when a winner is finalized. i think it is a little unfair to say "the media" calls the race. it would be more accurate to say that their "in house election people analyze the potential outcomes. and announce when they feel that a candidate can't possibly lose. based on outstanding ballots and projected vote". and yes, sometimes they are wrong. in 2000, NBC (i think) called the Florida election for Gore. i called my wife to tell her he had won, and got on a plane. by the time the plane had landed, they had retracted the call. However, based on the question asked, I decided at the time that going into the detail of the process the media uses to make the "call" was not necessary. There have been a few times lately when I have actually started to type out responses to posts talking about "calls" being made that have had more detail such as you include but decided they weren't worth the effort.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 12:05:53 GMT -5
red wave in 2024 is quite unlikely. a blue wave, however, is quite possible.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 14, 2022 14:25:29 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 14:49:35 GMT -5
bills: when were the last TWO times that Democrats lost seats in a presidential year? how many seats did they lose?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 14, 2022 15:03:13 GMT -5
bills: when were the last TWO times that Democrats lost seats in a presidential year? how many seats did they lose? No idea.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 15:05:18 GMT -5
bills: when were the last TWO times that Democrats lost seats in a presidential year? how many seats did they lose? No idea. i can only think of one. and they lost 2 seats. in 2018, when Democrats faced similar circumstances, the GOP GAINED two seats. i would argue that 2024 doesn't look much like 2018 for a variety of reasons, most of which are favorable to Democrats.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 14, 2022 15:47:37 GMT -5
i can only think of one. and they lost 2 seats. in 2018, when Democrats faced similar circumstances, the GOP GAINED two seats. i would argue that 2024 doesn't look much like 2018 for a variety of reasons, most of which are favorable to Democrats. It will certainly be interesting how things play out.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 15:52:28 GMT -5
just to be clear, the GOP was poised to take 2 seats from Democrats this year. that would have been NORMAL. instead, it looks like Dems will gain one. i have not analyzed how previous election cycles influence the one that follows, or i would do so right now.
the pundits seem to think that 2024 will be good for Dems. i am going with that for now, but in all likelihood, it will be up to you and others to watch that. i doubt very much i will care as much about that election as this one.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Nov 14, 2022 17:47:43 GMT -5
just to be clear, the GOP was poised to take 2 seats from Democrats this year. that would have been NORMAL. instead, it looks like Dems will gain one. i have not analyzed how previous election cycles influence the one that follows, or i would do so right now. the pundits seem to think that 2024 will be good for Dems. i am going with that for now, but in all likelihood, it will be up to you and others to watch that. i doubt very much i will care as much about that election as this one. Yes, you could be in Istanbul where bombs are going off.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 18:06:24 GMT -5
just to be clear, the GOP was poised to take 2 seats from Democrats this year. that would have been NORMAL. instead, it looks like Dems will gain one. i have not analyzed how previous election cycles influence the one that follows, or i would do so right now. the pundits seem to think that 2024 will be good for Dems. i am going with that for now, but in all likelihood, it will be up to you and others to watch that. i doubt very much i will care as much about that election as this one. Yes, you could be in Istanbul where bombs are going off. 62 people have died from domestic extremism in the US since 2001. another 85 have died in mass shootings THIS YEAR. the Highland Park incident was quite similar in scope to what happened in Istanbul. but sure, make fun of Turkiye when you have a 2x4 stuck in your eye, cowboy.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 18:07:27 GMT -5
PS- Istanbul is a large, complex place. i wouldn't expect most 'mericans to know that, though. thank goodness for that, really.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 18:20:10 GMT -5
i will grant you this, however. Americans are MORE likely to reject Trump in 2024 than Turks are to reject Erdogan, next year. but i would not have said that last week, so shit can definitely change.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Nov 14, 2022 18:21:40 GMT -5
Yes, you could be in Istanbul where bombs are going off. 62 people have died from domestic extremism in the US since 2001. another 85 have died in mass shootings THIS YEAR. the Highland Park incident was quite similar in scope to what happened in Istanbul. but sure, make fun of Turkiye when you have a 2x4 stuck in your eye, cowboy. Two things: I’m not making fun of Turkey at all and I’m the furthest thing from a cowboy you could find. But….there was a serious bombing in the place that will become your refuge. Just pointing out that the grass isn’t always greener.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 18:27:37 GMT -5
62 people have died from domestic extremism in the US since 2001. another 85 have died in mass shootings THIS YEAR. the Highland Park incident was quite similar in scope to what happened in Istanbul. but sure, make fun of Turkiye when you have a 2x4 stuck in your eye, cowboy. Two things: I’m not making fun of Turkey at all and I’m the furthest thing from a cowboy you could find. But….there was a serious bombing in the place that will become your refuge. Just pointing out that the grass isn’t always greener. first of all, i am not moving there because the grass is greener. ok? if you want to understand why, you can ask. but don't assume stuff without asking. second, i am well aware of the bombing. just as i am aware of January 6th, Oklahoma City, 911, and the (85) Americans that have died in mass shootings this year. all Americans have a little cowboy in them. even me. there is nothing wrong with that, actually. if we stuck to driving cattle, the world might be a better place. even Istanbul.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 21:08:05 GMT -5
so i have been watching the three house races in NV that are close and the two in AZ that are close, and they are heading the opposite direction. i think the two AZ races go to the GOP, and the three in NV go to DEMS. that will make it 207:214
the GOP only needs four more to wrap it up. they will probably win Boebert's seat (but we won't hear about it until Friday), and at least three of the CA races, which will put them over the top. but it is POSSIBLE (not likely) that something will go wrong, there.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Nov 14, 2022 21:51:13 GMT -5
NYTIMES called it for Hobbs
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 15, 2022 11:31:03 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 15, 2022 14:50:28 GMT -5
we can hope.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 15, 2022 15:58:11 GMT -5
betting odds has Warnock at 3:1 to win his seat back. that would be good news for committee assignments (according to Joe Biden. and he should know).
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 15, 2022 16:00:27 GMT -5
PS- Bloomberg has the GOP one seat away with (12) seats left to call in the House. if you look at what is left open, half is tilting D and the other half R. so, the odds of Republicans getting over 220 is quite good.
edit: the split is actually not even. it will break for Democrats 2:1. but that still will put Republicans over the top, unless something wildly unexpected happens.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 17, 2022 20:14:27 GMT -5
several more House races have been announced.
GOP leads 218-211 currently. of the six remaining seats, the GOP leads in four of them. however, there are TWO seats that are currently within 1000 votes:
Adam Gray trails his Republican opponent by 963 in CA13. Boebert leads her Democratic rival by 543 in CO3.
these two races are heading in the OPPOSITE direction. Gray and Boebert are both FALLING. therefore, i think the most LIKELY outcome is that these two seats are split and we end up at 221:214, with an error of +/- 1.
this margin is smaller than the "freedom caucus", so i think McCarthy is in for some trouble. he will either have to accede to crazy demands to govern his majority, or he will have to coalesce with Democrats, which i seriously doubt will happen. then again, the "freedom caucus" is divided over McCarthy, so who knows what will happen?
this will probably be a very weird 2 years in the House. and probably pretty unproductive.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Nov 17, 2022 20:25:13 GMT -5
What else is new. Republicans have no interest in governing. They will do endless investigations and little else
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 17, 2022 20:31:27 GMT -5
oh, i agree completely. it is a feature for them, not a defect. they are still an anti-government insurgency, even if they failed to destroy the voting system in the purple zone, this time.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 17, 2022 21:11:40 GMT -5
oh, i have one more interesting set of races: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-us-election-results/alaska/so, i have not mentioned this for a while. it is possible that ALL THREE RACES here will require IRV. the Governor race is pretty clear. it is impossible to imagine a scenario where Dunleavy (R) doesn't win, imo. and he may very well win outright. the other two races are both going to be decided by IRV. in the Senate, we have Murkowski slowly gaining on her Trumpy opponent, Tshibaka. it is likely, imo, that she will pass her and move into first place, but it won't really matter for IRV, since it is impossible in this case for the bottom three candidates to compete for first. it seems quite unlikely to me that the DEMOCRATIC vote in this election will vote for Tshibaka. therefore, i am predicting that Murkowski will win in the THIRD round of IRV. and then we have the "at large" House race. Petola is the incumbent, and might win outright. but if she doesn't, it again seems quite likely that she will win in the third round of IRV, bumping out Sarah Palin, who is currently running 2nd. 90% of the vote is in, here, so this might not happen this week.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 17, 2022 23:21:11 GMT -5
oh, i have one more interesting set of races: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-us-election-results/alaska/so, i have not mentioned this for a while. it is possible that ALL THREE RACES here will require IRV. the Governor race is pretty clear. it is impossible to imagine a scenario where Dunleavy (R) doesn't win, imo. and he may very well win outright. the other two races are both going to be decided by IRV. in the Senate, we have Murkowski slowly gaining on her Trumpy opponent, Tshibaka. it is likely, imo, that she will pass her and move into first place, but it won't really matter for IRV, since it is impossible in this case for the bottom three candidates to compete for first. it seems quite unlikely to me that the DEMOCRATIC vote in this election will vote for Tshibaka. therefore, i am predicting that Murkowski will win in the THIRD round of IRV. and then we have the "at large" House race. Petola is the incumbent, and might win outright. but if she doesn't, it again seems quite likely that she will win in the third round of IRV, bumping out Sarah Palin, who is currently running 2nd. 90% of the vote is in, here, so this might not happen this week. The date is set. So far, the division has just counted first-place votes. A candidate can win outright if he or she receives more than 50% of first-place votes. If not, the race goes to the ranked choice tabulation. The tabulation will happen on Wednesday, Nov. 23. link
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 18, 2022 10:14:08 GMT -5
So now we know what the Republican house wants to get done for the American people. Investigate Hunter Biden. Investigate the father son Biden criminal alliance. Investigate Pelosi. Investigate why Pelosi allowed the Capital security to be so bad a bunch of sight seers were able to get in the capital. Investigate how badly the poor sightseers were treated while in custody (and was Pelosi responsibile). Investigate the DOJ. Investigate the CDC. Investigate Fauci.
In short, the Republican House will not do a damned thing for Americans.
It will be Benghazi Bengazhi Bengazhi amplified by a thousand.
Taxpayers, pay attention, I hope.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 18, 2022 10:18:48 GMT -5
Hershal Walker gave a discourse recently that discussed ice cream, toast, and the fact that vampires can kill wear wolves.
It did not end with a summary that tied all that together neatly- he just stopped talking.
I don’t know if his speech writer was sick or if he was just talking off the cuff.
Please don’t let me be represented by both MTG and Walker.
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Post by tallguy on Nov 18, 2022 10:46:59 GMT -5
Hershal Walker gave a discourse recently that discussed ice cream, toast, and the fact that vampires can kill wear wolves. It did not end with a summary that tied all that together neatly- he just stopped talking. I don’t know if his speech writer was sick or if he was just talking off the cuff. Please don’t let me be represented by both MTG and Walker. No, no, no. Werewolves kill vampires! (According to Mr. Walker.)
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Nov 18, 2022 10:59:28 GMT -5
Hershal Walker gave a discourse recently that discussed ice cream, toast, and the fact that vampires can kill wear wolves. It did not end with a summary that tied all that together neatly- he just stopped talking. I don’t know if his speech writer was sick or if he was just talking off the cuff. Please don’t let me be represented by both MTG and Walker. No, no, no. Werewolves kill vampires! (According to Mr. Walker.) Although vampires are cool.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 18, 2022 11:20:15 GMT -5
Hershal Walker gave a discourse recently that discussed ice cream, toast, and the fact that vampires can kill wear wolves. It did not end with a summary that tied all that together neatly- he just stopped talking. I don’t know if his speech writer was sick or if he was just talking off the cuff. Please don’t let me be represented by both MTG and Walker. LOL, I got Mitch McConnell and James Comer! Comer has called Hunter Biden a "national security threat" and expressed particular interest in his finances and his business activity overseas. He indicated inquiries would look into whether the younger Biden had compromised his father's leadership, telling TIME: “The Hunter Biden investigation is slowly becoming the Joe Biden investigation.” www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-joe-biden-investigation-what-to-expect-from-jamie-comer-as-house-oversight-chair/ar-AA14edOE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=199b3f51c51c4153b9a7b10a251255d8
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