Official 2022 Midterm Thread

[djAdvocate]

There is not much to look at right now.

On the one hand is the Biden Approval number, which is hovering near a new low for his presidency.

On the other hand, we have the Generic Ballot, which is showing D+3:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

this is painting a rather different picture from what I had previously anticipated. 

midterms tend to be bad for the incumbent party.  so, before I saw the generic ballot, I was thinking that this coming election WILDLY favored Republicans.  this is further made true by the radical suppression going on, and the redistricting in Red States.

without thinking about it, I would have said that Democrats are going to get SHELLACKED.  but I am prepared to be made wrong.  convince me. 

[happyhoix]

I’m curious how the Republican cannibalism will impact the midterms - Trumpists doing death matches against RHINO republicans in the primary. 

Also curious how the ongoing legal cases against Trump will impact his ability to throw his weight around in the midterm. On the one hand, his minions will just call it presidential harassment, but on the other, the non- Trump republicans may get disillusioned with Trump and any of his hand picked candidates. 

[billisonboard]

Already? If we must: Democrats have a midterm turnout problem. Being more liberal won't help.

(CNN)Democrats are likely to have a turnout issue in 2022. To solve this turnout problem, there will be a temptation to double-down on progressive policies. And indeed, President Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda polls fairly well.

But Democrats should keep in mind that the Democratic voters likely to sit out 2022 are not the left-wing base. They'll probably be more moderate and mainstream Democrats.

[Tennesseer]

Oct 9, 2021 16:24:37 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Already? If we must: Democrats have a midterm turnout problem. Being more liberal won't help.

(CNN)Democrats are likely to have a turnout issue in 2022. To solve this turnout problem, there will be a temptation to double-down on progressive policies. And indeed, President Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda polls fairly well.

But Democrats should keep in mind that the Democratic voters likely to sit out 2022 are not the left-wing base. They'll probably be more moderate and mainstream Democrats.

I wonder if the moderate Democrats would sit it out in 2022 if it appears trump would be the eventual Republican candidate for president.

A lot can happen in 12 months.

[djAdvocate]

yeah, if I were a Democrat, I would be LESS worried now having read the tea leaves than I was before. but as Tenn said, a lot can change in 12 months- both to the benefit and to the detriment of Democrats.

for example, blocking Biden's popular agenda and "ending his presidency" might not play out well for the GOP. it might be better to let him "win" this round and RUN AGAINST IT, if they really feel it is a disaster for the country.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 9, 2021 16:24:37 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Already? If we must: Democrats have a midterm turnout problem. Being more liberal won't help.

(CNN)Democrats are likely to have a turnout issue in 2022. To solve this turnout problem, there will be a temptation to double-down on progressive policies. And indeed, President Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda polls fairly well.

But Democrats should keep in mind that the Democratic voters likely to sit out 2022 are not the left-wing base. They'll probably be more moderate and mainstream Democrats.

I was going to wait a month, bills, but I am gone for most of November.  so, yes.  already. 

[kadee78]

I think the "turn out" problem will depend on if there are other state or local offices being decided in 2022.  I think our governor comes up again in 2022 so we might have a better turn out than some are predicting...especially if Stacey Abrams runs again.

[happyhoix]

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/anti-trump-republicans-urge-gop-voters-to-back-democrats-in-2022/ar-AAPnL4G?li=BBnb7Kz

A group of moderate GOPers trying to keep the party from becoming the party of Trump is pushing GOPers to vote for those few GOPers like Cheney and Kitzinger who stood against Trump after Jan 6th, and to vote for Dems, rather than for Trumpist GOPers. 

They say it’s the only way to keep their party from complete destruction. 

They also say that enough moderate republicans voted for Biden they were able to keep the 2020 election from Trump - now they need to vote out McCarthy and retain the house for the Dems. 

Interesting. I wonder what percentage of GOPers might do this. 

[djAdvocate]

fuck their party. the US is what I am worried about.

[happyhoix]

Obama is coming out to campaign for the VA Gubernatorial race. 

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/obama-to-campaign-for-mcauliffe-in-virginia/ar-AAPqfKD

Biden doesn’t have good coattails right now but Obama is still very popular. 

[Value Buy]

Oct 9, 2021 14:46:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

There is not much to look at right now.

On the one hand is the Biden Approval number, which is hovering near a new low for his presidency.

On the other hand, we have the Generic Ballot, which is showing D+3:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

this is painting a rather different picture from what I had previously anticipated. 

midterms tend to be bad for the incumbent party.  so, before I saw the generic ballot, I was thinking that this coming election WILDLY favored Republicans.  this is further made true by the radical suppression going on, and the redistricting in Red States.

without thinking about it, I would have said that Democrats are going to get SHELLACKED.  but I am prepared to be made wrong.  convince me. 

You failed to mention the redistricting going on in blue states where states that are losing a House seat the democrats are squeezing out Republicans by trying to combine the Republican districts or merge it with a democrat majority district.

At this time I do not expect any Republican runaway next November. All I can hope for is one more Republican Senator who is actually a Republican and they defeat the Democratic incumbant.
I do not have a clue what will happen in the House races.......You forgot to mention the blue states losing a House seat are also redistricting districts and squeezing Republican held seats into neighboring democratic districts and hoping the Republican loses.

As far as the House outcome I cannot predict much success there for Republicans. With so many Democrats fleeing Illinois, NY State, blue states, etc, and moving to red states some red district seats there may very well go blue in 22.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 12, 2021 10:02:26 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Oct 9, 2021 14:46:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

There is not much to look at right now.

On the one hand is the Biden Approval number, which is hovering near a new low for his presidency.

On the other hand, we have the Generic Ballot, which is showing D+3:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

this is painting a rather different picture from what I had previously anticipated. 

midterms tend to be bad for the incumbent party.  so, before I saw the generic ballot, I was thinking that this coming election WILDLY favored Republicans.  this is further made true by the radical suppression going on, and the redistricting in Red States.

without thinking about it, I would have said that Democrats are going to get SHELLACKED.  but I am prepared to be made wrong.  convince me. 

You failed to mention the redistricting going on in blue states where states that are losing a House seat the democrats are squeezing out Republicans by trying to combine the Republican districts or merge it with a democrat majority district.
.

that is because I live in arguably the bluest state in the country, and redistricting is no issue at all.

I have no idea what goes on in the purple states, frankly, and I don't care.  it is not the subject of this thread.  but if this is your attempt to mollify my request for convincing arguments in favor of it being a closer race than I think it will be, then you will have to provide a link to some of these "blue states" as you call them.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 12, 2021 10:02:26 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

interesting notion(s).

you're right, I did forget to mention the new house seat(s) for the GOP due to the census. you can add that to the Democratic disadvantages.

[Value Buy]

Oct 12, 2021 16:16:02 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 12, 2021 10:02:26 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

You failed to mention the redistricting going on in blue states where states that are losing a House seat the democrats are squeezing out Republicans by trying to combine the Republican districts or merge it with a democrat majority district.
.

that is because I live in arguably the bluest state in the country, and redistricting is no issue at all.

I have no idea what goes on in the purple states, frankly, and I don't care.  it is not the subject of this thread.  but if this is your attempt to mollify my request for convincing arguments in favor of it being a closer race than I think it will be, then you will have to provide a link to some of these "blue states" as you call them.

Do some investigating in Illinois
I am not molifying a damn thing. I wrote the democrats are doing what you claimed republicans are doing in red states. Democrats are doing the same thing in blue states, and with democrats moving to red states, Tennessee, Arizona (maybe purple now)Texas Georgia, South Carolina Florida, the courts will see lawsuits over gerrymandering and stop some of it.  It will be harder to hold Republican state wide office holders with the increase in democratic voters. It is all about demographics. Many posters have posted articles or thoughts how Republicans are old white dudes dieing out, so you should believe this scenerio to be real.......

[Value Buy]

Oct 12, 2021 16:17:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 12, 2021 10:02:26 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

interesting notion(s).

you're right, I did forget to mention the new house seat(s) for the GOP due to the census. you can add that to the Democratic disadvantages.

Texas and Florida have shown they have a problem containing growing democratic districts being held to one district as they are required to have fairly equal population numbers in each district forcing some democrats in to only slightly Republican held districts. They can swing blue in 22 or 24.

[Value Buy]

I forgot to mention dj started this thread as early as he did because he was afraid I would steal the thread title.......


BUT, as everyone knows, I promised to pass on politic threads when I came back 

(I guess I am hopelessly stuck discussing politics)

[djAdvocate]

ok, VB. thanks! seriously. you answered the question.
I am skeptical about Democrats chances.
but there are a LOT of variables at play.

[Value Buy]

Oct 12, 2021 23:02:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

ok, VB. thanks! seriously. you answered the question.
I am skeptical about Democrats chances.
but there are a LOT of variables at play.

I guess we are both a little skeptical how this plays out, but even both of us admit if the Republicans do not grow their base, it is over

[happyhoix]

Oct 12, 2021 20:34:31 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Oct 12, 2021 16:17:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

interesting notion(s).

you're right, I did forget to mention the new house seat(s) for the GOP due to the census. you can add that to the Democratic disadvantages.

Texas and Florida have shown they have a problem containing growing democratic districts being held to one district as they are required to have fairly equal population numbers in each district forcing some democrats in to only slightly Republican held districts. They can swing blue in 22 or 24.

They should look at how Georgia successfully manages to gerrymander their districts to maintain a tight GoP hold on state politics. They’re slipping only in the statewide races, so they are deploying a list of voter suppression tactics to try to keep the pesky Dems from voting.

Here’s a thought- let’s prohibit gerrymandering so neither party can dilute or block any citizens from voting. It’s unAmerican.

[pulmonarymd]

Oct 13, 2021 10:41:34 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Oct 12, 2021 20:34:31 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Texas and Florida have shown they have a problem containing growing democratic districts being held to one district as they are required to have fairly equal population numbers in each district forcing some democrats in to only slightly Republican held districts. They can swing blue in 22 or 24.

They should look at how Georgia successfully manages to gerrymander their districts to maintain a tight GoP hold on state politics. They’re slipping only in the statewide races, so they are deploying a list of voter suppression tactics to try to keep the pesky Dems from voting.

Here’s a thought- let’s prohibit gerrymandering so neither party can dilute or block any citizens from voting. It’s unAmerican.

. But, unless both sides agree, it makes no sense for one side to "disarm" unilaterally. Given the ridiculous maps that have been drawn in some states, it needs to be a nationwide agreement, otherwise playing "fair" makes you a loser.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 13, 2021 10:47:13 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Oct 13, 2021 10:41:34 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

They should look at how Georgia successfully manages to gerrymander their districts to maintain a tight GoP hold on state politics. They’re slipping only in the statewide races, so they are deploying a list of voter suppression tactics to try to keep the pesky Dems from voting.

Here’s a thought- let’s prohibit gerrymandering so neither party can dilute or block any citizens from voting. It’s unAmerican.

. But, unless both sides agree, it makes no sense for one side to "disarm" unilaterally. Given the ridiculous maps that have been drawn in some states, it needs to be a nationwide agreement, otherwise playing "fair" makes you a loser.

I am fairly certain HR1 addresses this issue.

[djAdvocate]

a first testcase for midterms is coming up in Virginia.

normally, the Democratic governor would SAIL to victory. but he is getting a tough challenge.

two months ago, he had a solid 8% lead, but that lead is now 3% with a month to go:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

some of this is due to a very Republican friendly set of polls by the prestigious Emerson College. that poll shows about 3% outlying both nationally, and in local elections like this. they are probably making different modeling assumptions. we will see if they are right or not. if they are, it is a dead heat. if they are wrong, the governor leads by approximately polling error.

[tbop77]

Former President Donald Trump believes Republicans will sit out the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election, of which he may be a contender, if the fraud he believes occurred during the 2020 election isn't "solved."

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-republicans-wont-vote-in-midterms-2024-election-if-2020-fraud-isnt-solved/ar-AAPtQH0?ocid=uxbndlbing

Good advice!    

[Rukh O'Rorke]

how is the ongoing pandemic going to affect the voting rolls?

[happyhoix]

Oct 13, 2021 18:31:05 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

Former President Donald Trump believes Republicans will sit out the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election, of which he may be a contender, if the fraud he believes occurred during the 2020 election isn't "solved."

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-republicans-wont-vote-in-midterms-2024-election-if-2020-fraud-isnt-solved/ar-AAPtQH0?ocid=uxbndlbing

Good advice!    

How the fuck will it get solved? Trump gets to be president again and kicks Biden to the curb?

Does he not understand that he made two GA GOP senators lose their re election campaigns by telling his MAGA heads that the GA elections were crooked and they shouldn’t bother to vote in a crooked election? He lost the senate for the GOP and now he’s going to convince his MAGA heads they shouldn’t vote in 2022 or in 2024 either - because it’s still corrupt.

I hope McConnell is sitting somewhere crying into his whiskey because he regrets ever humoring the human cane toad who will end up destroying the GOP.

[Value Buy]

Oct 13, 2021 10:41:34 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Oct 12, 2021 20:34:31 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Texas and Florida have shown they have a problem containing growing democratic districts being held to one district as they are required to have fairly equal population numbers in each district forcing some democrats in to only slightly Republican held districts. They can swing blue in 22 or 24.

They should look at how Georgia successfully manages to gerrymander their districts to maintain a tight GoP hold on state politics. They’re slipping only in the statewide races, so they are deploying a list of voter suppression tactics to try to keep the pesky Dems from voting.

Here’s a thought- let’s prohibit gerrymandering so neither party can dilute or block any citizens from voting. It’s unAmerican.

Has Georgia done it this year already? My understanding they were having trouble not puttting a lot of dems in some purple collar counties around Atlanta turning them Democrat in  22

[Value Buy]

Oct 13, 2021 13:41:58 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

a first testcase for midterms is coming up in Virginia.

normally, the Democratic governor would SAIL to victory. but he is getting a tough challenge.

two months ago, he had a solid 8% lead, but that lead is now 3% with a month to go:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

some of this is due to a very Republican friendly set of polls by the prestigious Emerson College. that poll shows about 3% outlying both nationally, and in local elections like this. they are probably making different modeling assumptions. we will see if they are right or not. if they are, it is a dead heat. if they are wrong, the governor leads by approximately polling error.

Politics are always local
Many collar counties with large populations around DC are in uproar over school boards not listening to the parents and these parents are going to turn out to throw Democrats and liberals out of as many local elections as they can.

[Value Buy]

Oct 13, 2021 19:11:38 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

how is the ongoing pandemic going to affect the voting rolls?

Not much imo.
he voters may be affected and turn out for the pro government mandates and just as many will turn out anti government mandate and basically becomes a wash.
Voter rolls in man states will not be cleaned up.
The only thing I see that might be different this time if the pandamic is contained, voter harvesting by party faithful allowed due to the pandemic last year might be stopped in some states in 2022.

[kadee78]

Ya'al are missing something else too...all the state & local GOPers are putting as many DT heavies as they can in charge of counting (not counting) votes.  There should be some good court cases if Democrats don't win & any votes get thrown out.  Going to be some close eyes on what goes on at a lot of polling places.

[Value Buy]

Oct 13, 2021 21:46:36 GMT -5 kadee78 said:

Ya'al are missing something else too...all the state & local GOPers are putting as many DT heavies as they can in charge of counting (not counting) votes.  There should be some good court cases if Democrats don't win & any votes get thrown out.  Going to be some close eyes on what goes on at a lot of polling places.

Noticed Georgia still has a lot of Trump signs and posters up.
All they have to do is change the year on them and they are good to go!