billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 12, 2022 9:56:55 GMT -5
It must be investigated and I have the man for the job:
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 11:49:53 GMT -5
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minnesotapaintlady
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Nov 12, 2022 12:11:32 GMT -5
My state has always been blue...even when the entire country turned red for Reagan we were blue...but I was really surprised we got even MORE blue after this election and flipped the Senate to take total control. Since Floyd and the riots and covid, there has been so much Walz hate and Trump love being expressed I expected more change, my personal county flipped from blue to red (well, more like a pale pink )
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 12:53:19 GMT -5
cool, so you guys can put forth an alternate slate of electors now in case the GOP wins?
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minnesotapaintlady
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Nov 12, 2022 13:08:26 GMT -5
S cool, so you guys can put forth an alternate slate of electors now in case the GOP wins? I had to google that to figure out what you were talking about.
Sounds like a plan!
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Cheesy FL-Vol
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Post by Cheesy FL-Vol on Nov 12, 2022 16:31:19 GMT -5
Considering how the Republicans fared after being touted as likely to win back, I have to wonder if all the media doom and gloom in the last few weeks was actually a Democrat ploy to get their voting base to the polls.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 16:45:11 GMT -5
Considering how the Republicans fared after being touted as likely to win back, I have to wonder if all the media doom and gloom in the last few weeks was actually a Democrat ploy to get their voting base to the polls. nah, they were following the polls. and let's be clear here, because it is IMPORTANT. the polls were off. even nationally. it might end up being outside the MOE, which means that they are going to have to do some analysis to see what happened. it doesn't seem like it was anything at the last minute. there were no dramatic events in October. so, either a certain group was UNDERSURVEYED (likely) or LIED (unlikely). this election had some weird dynamics in it. i am sure we will be reading about it for close to a year. but yeah, Democratic candidates are outperforming the polls by about 3% on average. here are some examples. i didn't cherry pick them. i just went through all the races i was watching: Race, Predicted Winner, Predicted Margin, Actual Margin, Difference Wisconsin Senate, Johnson, +4.5, +1, D+3.5 PA Senate, Oz, 0.5%, -4.5%, D+5 (note: Marist had Fetterman winning by 6%. the average A Rated polls showed Fetterman +0.8%) GA Senate, Walker +1, -1, D+2 AZ Senate, Kelly +1.5, +5.5, D+4 OH Senate, Vance +6, +6, D+0 NH Senate, Hassan +2.2, +9, D+7 Average = D+3.6 so, yeah. that is a massive miss on polling. i did an analysis or polling quality for the Fetterman race. that is definitely an issue here, but only explains 25% of the difference in that race.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 16:54:15 GMT -5
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Cheesy FL-Vol
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Post by Cheesy FL-Vol on Nov 12, 2022 18:23:19 GMT -5
Wasn’t polling off-kilter for 2020 as well?
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Post by Opti on Nov 12, 2022 18:32:47 GMT -5
Considering how the Republicans fared after being touted as likely to win back, I have to wonder if all the media doom and gloom in the last few weeks was actually a Democrat ploy to get their voting base to the polls. Don't know but Michael Moore flipped his prediction to a good Democrat turnout about a week before midterms.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 18:37:08 GMT -5
Wasn’t polling off-kilter for 2020 as well? it was off 2.7% nationally. IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. it could be that the pollsters tried to adjust to that (in 2022), and got it wrong. if they had stuck to the 2020 model, it might have been right on. note: IBD, the Hill, and Emerson got it within 1/2% in 2020.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 12, 2022 21:39:05 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 22:15:25 GMT -5
more proof of how bad Trump is for the party. edit: as of this hour, Democrats trail the GOP by only 8 seats in the House, with (21) undecided races. they would have to break 2:1 for Democrats to make things interesting, which is NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 23:15:42 GMT -5
HA! i figured that the GOP had the House. and i still think they will prevail there. but MAN is it close. check this out: www.politico.com/news/2022/11/12/house-midterm-elections-00066615so, if you add up all of the numbers, it is GOP 215 and DEM 210 with 10 tossup seats. in those tossup seats, the GOP leads in six. so the LIKELY number is 221:214. however, since the seats could ALL break for Democrats, that would leave them 220:215. in other words, if they do extremely well, they MIGHT win the House. oddsmakers have that 1:4 against right now. but last week, the odds of Democrats getting 51 seats was 1:4, and now they are better than 50/50 by most accounts. edit: in this case, the odds make perfect sense, since Democrats need 8 out of 10 tossup seats to have a majority.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 1:08:52 GMT -5
NBC is predicting the same thing.
GOP = 219 -/+4 DEM = 216 +/-4
it is possible that this will end up at 217, awaiting the RCV election in Alaska, with Princess Quitter on the ballot.
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 13, 2022 7:52:45 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 13, 2022 7:56:29 GMT -5
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Nov 13, 2022 11:44:52 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me why NV Senate race was called with the percentages being 48.8 and 48.1 and only a 6500 vote lead, but GA is going to be a runoff with a much larger gap because "neither candidate reached 50%"
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 13, 2022 11:53:57 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me why NV Senate race was called with the percentages being 48.8 and 48.1 and only a 6500 vote lead, but GA is going to be a runoff with a much larger gap because "neither candidate reached 50%" It’s a rule in Georgia that if no one in the initial race gets 50% of the vote, the two top vote getters have to do a run off. I think it was to diminish the impact of 3rd party candidates. We n this case, about 2% of the vote went to a Libertarian candidate. If all the lose voters shifted to GOP, Hershal would win. That assumes all the GOP voters are willing to show back up again- I don’t think as many will. Hershal doesn’t generate the enthusiasm Warnock does. But we’ll see in a few weeks.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 13, 2022 11:55:40 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me why NV Senate race was called with the percentages being 48.8 and 48.1 and only a 6500 vote lead, but GA is going to be a runoff with a much larger gap because "neither candidate reached 50%" One, Georgia state law states that there will be a runoff if no candidate gets 50%. There is no such provision in Nevada law. Secondly, when an election is "called", that is done by the media and has no force of law. Legally, elections are certified by state election officials which is when a winner is finalized.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 13, 2022 12:00:37 GMT -5
I should point out Trump hates both the GOP Governor Kemp and the GOP SOS, Raffensburger. He actively rallied against them - and the both won. So the fact that Hershal is Trumps hand picked candidate may not mean as much in Georgia as it does in other southern states.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 12:30:16 GMT -5
I should point out Trump hates both the GOP Governor Kemp and the GOP SOS, Raffensburger. He actively rallied against them - and the both won. So the fact that Hershal is Trumps hand picked candidate may not mean as much in Georgia as it does in other southern states. there is another factor here, as well. there was considerable ballot splitting in GA. Raff and Kemp both got over 50% of the vote, but Walker did NOT. there is a considerable chance that GOP voters really wanted to retain the Senate, and held their nose while voting for Walker. now that the Senate is OFF THE TABLE, these voters can freely express their rejection of Walker. now, it may be true that the minority that HATES Warnock (for some reason) will still come out and vote against him. and that may be enough to propel Walker to a win. but without the energy of it actually meaning something, i doubt it.
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Post by scgal on Nov 13, 2022 12:48:51 GMT -5
I as a conservative would have liked a better result but with the candidate pool that was out there I'm not surprised of the outcome.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 12:50:45 GMT -5
I as a conservative would have liked a better result but with the candidate pool that was out there I'm not surprised of the outcome. yeah, i think that was about 80% of the GOP trouble this year. they would have done better if they had better candidates running, for sure.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 12:57:21 GMT -5
NOTE TO THE BOARD:
i have to get to work in 3 mins. can someone verify that BOTH ME and AK have runoff (RCV) elections? it looks like Democrats will pick up two seats in those two races. if you find out they have RCV, can you also tell (us) when that will take place? i don't have time to look into it.
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 13, 2022 12:59:11 GMT -5
I as a conservative would have liked a better result but with the candidate pool that was out there I'm not surprised of the outcome. As an independent voter I agree with you. Both parties need to ensure they put forward quality candidates. That way now matter which side wins we will still have serious, dedicated people who make an effort to serve all their constituents and not just the far left or far right part that elected them. Maybe This will be a wake up call for both parties.
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 13, 2022 13:09:35 GMT -5
I should point out Trump hates both the GOP and the GOP SOS, Raffensburger. He actively rallied against them - and the both won. So the fact that Hershal is Trumps hand picked candidate may not mean as much in Georgia as it does in other southern states. I read an article this morning (cannot find now) Governor Kemp is ow campaigning for Walker.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 1:45:24 GMT -5
confession time. i was really worried about this midterm over the last month. you could see it in my posts. it was not so much that Democrats would lose. that would be normal in a midterm. it was who they might lose to. if i hadn't made myself clear before, it was because of the dark cynicism of the plot, which i could very much see happening. if the GOP had managed to turn a few swing states red at the "election level", elections could turn on state legislatures rather than voting, and that could really change presidential politics. in addition to the above problem, we have a case coming up in the Supreme Court which might enshrine that right, which would forever make this possible going forward (or until a constitutional amendment or SCOTUS reversal). but none of that happened, for now. 2024 probably won't be a normal election year. i would guess that we will get to find that out in about a week or so (Trump has some announcement planned). and the GOP could fall right back in the same denialist rut. but it DOES feel different right now. and that is great for America, if we can hold on to that feeling. it will be even better if the SCOTUS does NOT assert that states have absolute rights to choose elector slates. edit: so yeah, i was WRONG to be as worried as i was. this time. there have been many times in the last (5) years that i have doubted this nation's sanity. but this seems like a fairly reasonable result, based on the facts at hand.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 1:56:39 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me why NV Senate race was called with the percentages being 48.8 and 48.1 and only a 6500 vote lead, but GA is going to be a runoff with a much larger gap because "neither candidate reached 50%" One, Georgia state law states that there will be a runoff if no candidate gets 50%. There is no such provision in Nevada law. Secondly, when an election is "called", that is done by the media and has no force of law. Legally, elections are certified by state election officials which is when a winner is finalized. i think it is a little unfair to say "the media" calls the race. it would be more accurate to say that their "in house election people analyze the potential outcomes. and announce when they feel that a candidate can't possibly lose. based on outstanding ballots and projected vote". and yes, sometimes they are wrong. in 2000, NBC (i think) called the Florida election for Gore. i called my wife to tell her he had won, and got on a plane. by the time the plane had landed, they had retracted the call.
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 14, 2022 8:19:17 GMT -5
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