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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2022 17:15:12 GMT -5
projecting.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2022 17:42:09 GMT -5
thanks to Fetterman, the Senate is now too close to call.
there has been some minor statistical improvement for Democrats in Nevada. that race is dead even again.
Biden's numbers are back in the 42-43% range again.
OVERALL, there has been a slight improvement for Democrats in the last week. but in PA, it is going to be a battle royale. unsure of the outcome, there.
GA is not much better.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2022 17:43:11 GMT -5
PS- i am not MAD at Fetterman. he is a good man, doing the best he can. but he got dealt a bad hand with his stroke, and will have to win under these circumstances that were dealt him.
in other words, it is his bad luck that is making the problem. not him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2022 21:45:28 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2022 10:24:38 GMT -5
updates to the above: first link: pretty much exactly the same. Dems at 64% second link: 66% odds now for 538 Generic ballot: +1% for Democrats, but the rating is now 45.6%, which is the highest in this election cycle. the GOP is also up since 9/6, but the votes are breaking evenly. Biden approval is still flat at 42-43%. there have been some ups and downs, but the polling has been extremely stable the last five weeks. with only four weeks to go, the ratings have basically stayed the same. Warnock is a little more likely to win in GA, the three states leaning GOP (OH, WI, and NC) are basically ALL 2:1 GOP. Nevada is too close to call. that is probably our bellweather. if Democrats win there, they will probably do pretty well. if they lose, they might still hang on to the Senate, but will lose the House. in the last week, it is a pure tossup in the Senate. it is no longer possible to tell who will win. the ONLY good news for Democrats is that the numbers have not deteriorated much in the last week. except on one survey: the Generic Ballot is now R+1. that is actually still NOT a bad number, as this survey has historically had a bias of R+2. in addition, Biden's numbers are up slightly in the last week. the race to watch is the Fetterman race. unfortunately, if what Maddow says is true, the GOP has control of the election mechanisms this time, and therefore we might not know the outcome for over a month (because they will insist on hand counting ballots). this is going to be the stupidest election ever. and that is intentional.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2022 10:40:02 GMT -5
NOTE: the most probable outcome in GA is that neither candidate will reach a majority, which will require a runoff election. given that fact, the Fetterman race is the big one. if the Democrats can win that race, their chances are decent of keeping 50 seats. if they lose it, their chances are probably nil.
one final note: although the Democrats have not lost much steam in the last week, they are still sinking. each day, their probability of winning the Senate continues to sink. 538 has them below 50-50 this morning.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2022 17:21:08 GMT -5
the messaging down the stretch from Democrats should be: vote like you might not get another chance.
because......
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 3, 2022 18:06:02 GMT -5
the messaging down the stretch from Democrats should be: vote like you might not get another chance.
because...... I am not sure that will be effective: WOLF: I think a lot of DC-based journalists can’t help but view this election as a sort of post-insurrection referendum on democracy. But it’s becoming clear that a lot of voters don’t see it that way. What are you seeing traveling around the country?
RESTON: I like to spend a lot of time in grocery store parking lots and gas stations. It’s remarkable that when you ask people what their top issues are in this election, that almost never comes up. It comes up as an issue that is No. 4, No. 5 down the list, but usually I have to ask about it for people to start talking about that.
link
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2022 20:21:21 GMT -5
the messaging down the stretch from Democrats should be: vote like you might not get another chance.
because...... I am not sure that will be effective: WOLF: I think a lot of DC-based journalists can’t help but view this election as a sort of post-insurrection referendum on democracy. But it’s becoming clear that a lot of voters don’t see it that way. What are you seeing traveling around the country?
RESTON: I like to spend a lot of time in grocery store parking lots and gas stations. It’s remarkable that when you ask people what their top issues are in this election, that almost never comes up. It comes up as an issue that is No. 4, No. 5 down the list, but usually I have to ask about it for people to start talking about that.
link congratulations. you just won a starring role for the remake of "Don't Look Up". www.imdb.com/title/tt11286314/seriously, do us all a favor and never volunteer for emergency services, ok? 911 caller: i think my husband is having a heart attack bills: don't worry mam, the last (17) callers said the same thing, and it was just indigestion 911 caller: no, seriously, he has a condition, and i think he is unconscious bills: well, nobody really cares an hour later, so just call me back then... <hangs up>
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 3, 2022 20:31:31 GMT -5
I am not sure that will be effective: WOLF: I think a lot of DC-based journalists can’t help but view this election as a sort of post-insurrection referendum on democracy. But it’s becoming clear that a lot of voters don’t see it that way. What are you seeing traveling around the country?
RESTON: I like to spend a lot of time in grocery store parking lots and gas stations. It’s remarkable that when you ask people what their top issues are in this election, that almost never comes up. It comes up as an issue that is No. 4, No. 5 down the list, but usually I have to ask about it for people to start talking about that.
link congratulations. you just won a starring role for the remake of "Don't Look Up". www.imdb.com/title/tt11286314/seriously, do us all a favor and never volunteer for emergency services, ok? 911 caller: i think my husband is having a heart attack bills: don't worry mam, the last (17) callers said the same thing, and it was just indigestion 911 caller: no, seriously, he has a condition, and i think he is unconscious bills: well, nobody really cares an hour later, so just call me back then... <hangs up> Got anything suggesting your idea would be effective for the Democrats?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2022 20:34:50 GMT -5
congratulations. you just won a starring role for the remake of "Don't Look Up". www.imdb.com/title/tt11286314/seriously, do us all a favor and never volunteer for emergency services, ok? 911 caller: i think my husband is having a heart attack bills: don't worry mam, the last (17) callers said the same thing, and it was just indigestion 911 caller: no, seriously, he has a condition, and i think he is unconscious bills: well, nobody really cares an hour later, so just call me back then... <hangs up> Got anything suggesting your idea would be effective for the Democrats? well, unlike some people, most of them get sarcasm. but you are probably right. now is probably not the best time for sarcasm. except for me. it is the only thing keeping me sane these days. edit: i am dumbfounded about how few people seem to get how serious some of this stuff is. it should be concerning to everyone who voted for Biden, to begin with. then add the millions who voted for Trump and have watched the J6 stuff. it should be the #1 issue BY FAR. the government can't do much about inflation. but it sure as HELL can do something about protecting the vote, and protecting the Republic against seditionists. it is apparently going to do neither, and side with the seditionists. which, of course, has lots of historical parallels. none of them end well.
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 3, 2022 21:48:05 GMT -5
Got anything suggesting your idea would be effective for the Democrats? well, unlike some people, most of them get sarcasm. but you are probably right. now is probably not the best time for sarcasm. except for me. it is the only thing keeping me sane these days. edit: i am dumbfounded about how few people seem to get how serious some of this stuff is. it should be concerning to everyone who voted for Biden, to begin with. then add the millions who voted for Trump and have watched the J6 stuff. it should be the #1 issue BY FAR. the government can't do much about inflation. but it sure as HELL can do something about protecting the vote, and protecting the Republic against seditionists. it is apparently going to do neither, and side with the seditionists. which, of course, has lots of historical parallels. none of them end well. Fully agree it should be the major concern. I don't think there is a way to get those who don't to start.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2022 21:55:02 GMT -5
well, unlike some people, most of them get sarcasm. but you are probably right. now is probably not the best time for sarcasm. except for me. it is the only thing keeping me sane these days. edit: i am dumbfounded about how few people seem to get how serious some of this stuff is. it should be concerning to everyone who voted for Biden, to begin with. then add the millions who voted for Trump and have watched the J6 stuff. it should be the #1 issue BY FAR. the government can't do much about inflation. but it sure as HELL can do something about protecting the vote, and protecting the Republic against seditionists. it is apparently going to do neither, and side with the seditionists. which, of course, has lots of historical parallels. none of them end well. Fully agree it should be the major concern. I don't think there is a way to get those who don't to start. i think there is. Biden could be a 24-7 mouthpiece for the idea just like Trump is being a 24-7 mouthpiece for neofascism. it would work. more people listen to him than he thinks. if he was showing "all due concern", many others would, as well.
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Post by dondub on Nov 3, 2022 22:06:45 GMT -5
Fully agree it should be the major concern. I don't think there is a way to get those who don't to start. i think there is. Biden could be a 24-7 mouthpiece for the idea just like Trump is being a 24-7 mouthpiece for neofascism. it would work. more people listen to him than he thinks. if he was showing "all due concern", many others would, as well. Too late. Should have started Jan. 7th and done a nationwide presser about ALL issues ( inflation etc.) every two weeks and not be nice about it. He should have accused Trump of treason and big oil of windfall profits ( which have aided the Repo-cons with those high gas prices) and chastised the grocery rippers too. Typical kumbaya demo approach, which is why I thought Joe was the wrong man for the job. Just imagine what Bernie rhetoric would be doing.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2022 22:10:13 GMT -5
i think there is. Biden could be a 24-7 mouthpiece for the idea just like Trump is being a 24-7 mouthpiece for neofascism. it would work. more people listen to him than he thinks. if he was showing "all due concern", many others would, as well. Too late. Should have started Jan. 7th and done a nationwide presser about ALL issues ( inflation etc.) every two weeks and not be nice about it. He should have accused Trump of treason and big oil of windfall profits ( which have aided the Repo-cons with those high gas prices) and chastised the grocery rippers too. Typical kumbaya demo approach, which is why I thought Joe was the wrong man for the job. Just imagine what Bernie rhetoric would be doing. or Tulsi Gabbard, for that matter.
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Post by dondub on Nov 3, 2022 22:33:50 GMT -5
Too late. Should have started Jan. 7th and done a nationwide presser about ALL issues ( inflation etc.) every two weeks and not be nice about it. He should have accused Trump of treason and big oil of windfall profits ( which have aided the Repo-cons with those high gas prices) and chastised the grocery rippers too. Typical kumbaya demo approach, which is why I thought Joe was the wrong man for the job. Just imagine what Bernie rhetoric would be doing. or Tulsi Gabbard, for that matter. Put down the pipe and back away.😎
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 4, 2022 8:58:47 GMT -5
i think there is. Biden could be a 24-7 mouthpiece for the idea just like Trump is being a 24-7 mouthpiece for neofascism. it would work. more people listen to him than he thinks. if he was showing "all due concern", many others would, as well. Too late. Should have started Jan. 7th and done a nationwide presser about ALL issues ( inflation etc.) every two weeks and not be nice about it. He should have accused Trump of treason and big oil of windfall profits ( which have aided the Repo-cons with those high gas prices) and chastised the grocery rippers too. Typical kumbaya demo approach, which is why I thought Joe was the wrong man for the job. Just imagine what Bernie rhetoric would be doing. Today, we live in an economy in which the billionaires are getting much richer while working families fall further behind. Unbelievably, while 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck , we now have more income and wealth inequality than we have ever had in the history of our country – with three multi-billionaires owning more wealth than the bottom half of Americans. While employers squeeze workers and their unions for cuts to health care and other benefits, the CEOs of major corporations now make nearly 400 times more than their average employees – the largest employer-worker gap in our history. www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/our-economic-crisis-isn-t-inflation-it-s-corporate-greed-and-the-gop-will-only-make-that-worse/ar-AA13J1Pl?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ed5bafdbe1d14832ab52a47084f33c14He's trying!!!
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 4, 2022 12:06:25 GMT -5
and there is SO MUCH THERE that Democrats can run on, but after 60 years of being called communists, they have been beaten down to a whisper.
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 5, 2022 8:21:47 GMT -5
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Post by teen persuasion on Nov 5, 2022 9:12:00 GMT -5
Is this why they keep these dim bulbs around - to let them run amok tilting at windmills and creating havoc while the deep thinkers plot? Then let the idiots take the blame when it inevitably goes bad.
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 5, 2022 10:03:28 GMT -5
Is this why they keep these dim bulbs around - to let them run amok tilting at windmills and creating havoc while the deep thinkers plot? Then let the idiots take the blame when it inevitably goes bad. Do you really believe they have "deep thinkers"? I think they have individuals who are very motivated to become more and more wealthy behind them but don't see that as well thought out. I see it as short sighted and leading to revolution at some point.
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Post by Cheesy FL-Vol on Nov 5, 2022 11:53:19 GMT -5
Is this why they keep these dim bulbs around - to let them run amok tilting at windmills and creating havoc while the deep thinkers plot? Then let the idiots take the blame when it inevitably goes bad. Do you really believe they have "deep thinkers"? I think they have individuals who are very motivated to become more and more wealthy behind them but don't see that as well thought out. I see it as short sighted and leading to revolution at some point. I think a revolution is going to be sooner than later.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2022 12:00:55 GMT -5
when people can't settle their difference through debate, what alternative is there?
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Post by teen persuasion on Nov 5, 2022 17:21:07 GMT -5
Is this why they keep these dim bulbs around - to let them run amok tilting at windmills and creating havoc while the deep thinkers plot? Then let the idiots take the blame when it inevitably goes bad. Do you really believe they have "deep thinkers"? I think they have individuals who are very motivated to become more and more wealthy behind them but don't see that as well thought out. I see it as short sighted and leading to revolution at some point. There's got to be at least a few puppet-masters behind the scenes. Someone was busy with a really long range plan to indoctrinate law school students and stack the courts with them, up to the Supreme Court now. That didn't just accidentally happen.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2022 17:54:21 GMT -5
sure. Michael Flynn is probably pretty bright. he is also a fascist.
then we have Miller the racist. by all accounts he is pretty bright.
then there is the grifter Bannon. he is smart, too.
the list goes on.....
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Post by Opti on Nov 5, 2022 17:57:01 GMT -5
sure. Michael Flynn is probably pretty bright. he is also a fascist. then we have Miller the racist. by all accounts he is pretty bright. then there is the grifter Bannon. he is smart, too. the list goes on..... Bannon the destroyer of American democracy ... Darth Vader was an apt call by SNL when they portrayed him in skits. Trump is pro fascism because he wants to be worshipped like those kinds of leaders before him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2022 17:59:42 GMT -5
he wants the statue of liberty replaced with him, i am sure.
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Post by dondub on Nov 5, 2022 18:00:23 GMT -5
Do you really believe they have "deep thinkers"? I think they have individuals who are very motivated to become more and more wealthy behind them but don't see that as well thought out. I see it as short sighted and leading to revolution at some point. There's got to be at least a few puppet-masters behind the scenes. Someone was busy with a really long range plan to indoctrinate law school students and stack the courts with them, up to the Supreme Court now. That didn't just accidentally happen. I believe that would be the Federalist Society. I can’t remember the name of the head perpetrator on that mission.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2022 18:01:20 GMT -5
There's got to be at least a few puppet-masters behind the scenes. Someone was busy with a really long range plan to indoctrinate law school students and stack the courts with them, up to the Supreme Court now. That didn't just accidentally happen. I believe that would be the Federalist Society. I can’t remember the name of the head perpetrator on that mission. Gorsuch was/is a member.
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Post by Opti on Nov 6, 2022 13:33:43 GMT -5
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