djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2022 23:25:02 GMT -5
i forgot to mention-
RCP is showing the GOP winning the Senate by TWO SEATS. they are showing Fedderman losing as well as Mark Kelly. that is pretty outside thinking, but if they are right, i will start following that site again for polling. (they have been woefully wrong for quite a few election cycles).
side note: RCP is ostensibly unbiased. they are just a poll aggregator. but their editorializing is complete rubbish, and overtly right wing. i am not sure who runs it, but it is pretty clear that they are not centrist. that does NOT mean they are WRONG. it just means that i distrust them.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2022 10:15:25 GMT -5
Biden's approval number has been between 42 and 43% since AUGUST 28TH. it seems unlikely to change significantly enough to help or hurt Democrats. meanwhile, his disapproval number has trended down steadily, hitting a six month low last week. it would appear that some are giving the benefit of the doubt.
it also appears that the Democratic numbers might have bottomed last week, but it is too early to tell. 538 has their odds of winning the Senate +2% during that time.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2022 11:38:49 GMT -5
ok, VB. thanks! seriously. you answered the question. I am skeptical about Democrats chances. but there are a LOT of variables at play. I guess we are both a little skeptical how this plays out, but even both of us admit if the Republicans do not grow their base, it is over actually, i don't agree with this. if the GOP can sufficiently suppress the vote, it is not over for them. that appears to be what they plan on doing, since as you CORRECTLY point out, their demographic is shrinking.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 12, 2022 18:03:10 GMT -5
updates to the above: first link: pretty much exactly the same. Dems at 64% second link: 66% odds now for 538 Generic ballot: +1% for Democrats, but the rating is now 45.6%, which is the highest in this election cycle. the GOP is also up since 9/6, but the votes are breaking evenly. Biden approval is still flat at 42-43%. there have been some ups and downs, but the polling has been extremely stable the last five weeks. with only four weeks to go, the ratings have basically stayed the same. Warnock is a little more likely to win in GA, the three states leaning GOP (OH, WI, and NC) are basically ALL 2:1 GOP. Nevada is too close to call. that is probably our bellweather. if Democrats win there, they will probably do pretty well. if they lose, they might still hang on to the Senate, but will lose the House.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 12, 2022 18:14:53 GMT -5
Here are the Nevada polls/observations: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/www.racetothewh.com/senate/nevadait is VERY difficult to tell what is going on, here. there have only been TWO polls in the last (2) weeks. the first is the SRSS poll. i don't know this pollster. for the record, 538 did NOT use that poll. it shows Laxalt +2% Cortez-Maestro did not have a SINGLE poll in September showing her ahead. however, the Suffolk poll just released has her up by 2%. here is where it gets interesting. that is down 4% from six weeks ago. HOWEVER, to add another wrinkle- this is a different survey group. this is LIKELY -vs- REGISTERED voters. the difference between these groups is about +4R, so i would say that number is FLAT for Cortez-Maestro. Laxalt had a good September, but October appears to be better for CM so far. verdict: too close to call. i mean that. this will likely be less than 1% between these two candidates.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2022 16:57:04 GMT -5
UPDATE ON SENATE TOSSUPS:
there are only two states left between the two surveyors that they are calling "tossups", Ohio and Nevada.
BOTH surveyors think Nevada is a tossup. so do i. it is BY FAR the best chance that the GOP has of picking up a seat.
NEITHER surveyor currently thinks GA is a tossup. both are calling it "leans D". i am not going to go deep into analysis right now. the undecided vote there worries me.
538 thinks that the GOP has the same advantage in OH, NC, and WI, about 5:2. that is significant. racetowin thinks the advantage in OH is less than 2:1 (thus the tossup status).
so, here is how it is setting up:
most competitive: Nevada second most competitive: Georgia about the same competitiveness (not very) : OH*, WI*, NC*, PA* just outside of that (likely D): AZ
*currently held by Republicans
if we look at this objectively, Georgia is the "wall" that the GOP has to break through. they have a good chance in NV. if they win in GA, then they might hold on to PA, which would give them a majority. of course, they might not!
if all of these seats were equally vulnerable, Democrats would have the advantage, as more GOP seats are vulnerable.
i checked out the RCP site again. they are predicting that the GOP will get a 2 seat majority. they based this on 2020 voting. i am not sure it applies this time, but it very well could. for the record, even Trafalgar, who got it RIGHT in 2020 AND 2016, is predicting Fetterman will win. so again, that seems OUTSIDE to me for the GOP.
in conclusion, even if the GOP has a GOOD night, i would expect Democrats to hold the Senate (50+) as of today. if Democrats have a good night, they will end up with 51. but that could change, of course. so either party is currently shooting for 51 AT BEST, imo. i SERIOUSLY doubt that either party will end up with 52 based on how things look currently, though DEMOCRATS have a much better chance of it. in fact, they have an OUTSIDE chance (4%?) of getting 54, and a slightly better chance (6%) of getting 53.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2022 17:11:42 GMT -5
note: 538 thinks the chances of Democrats getting 54+ is much better than i do (11%). they also think the GOP has a 20% chance of getting 52+. and they are the oddsmakers, so they are probably right.
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Post by Opti on Oct 16, 2022 20:31:10 GMT -5
Less than a month to go. I probably need to start reading up on my candidates, especially if I haven't voted for them before or their opponent.
DJ are you watching any of the NJ races?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2022 22:05:39 GMT -5
Less than a month to go. I probably need to start reading up on my candidates, especially if I haven't voted for them before or their opponent. DJ are you watching any of the NJ races? nope. anything interesting going on there?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2022 22:21:26 GMT -5
it is such a diverse place, with so many races, that it is difficult to follow it all.
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Post by Opti on Oct 16, 2022 23:22:12 GMT -5
Less than a month to go. I probably need to start reading up on my candidates, especially if I haven't voted for them before or their opponent. DJ are you watching any of the NJ races? nope. anything interesting going on there? I'll PM you. Not certain how close things are in my area, but I know Phil Murphy's win was not an easy one.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2022 1:14:01 GMT -5
i find it profoundly disturbing that Lake is winning in AZ.
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Post by Opti on Oct 17, 2022 6:21:03 GMT -5
i find it profoundly disturbing that Lake is winning in AZ. Arizona has lots of retirees. Perhaps too many think she will do better with the economy, i.e. fix their stock market losses. Time and the changing pandemic will do that anyway.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2022 8:37:59 GMT -5
i find it profoundly disturbing that Lake is winning in AZ. Arizona has lots of retirees. Perhaps too many think she will do better with the economy, i.e. fix their stock market losses. Time and the changing pandemic will do that anyway. Lake has a strong lead among voters between the ages of 18 to 39 - she leads Hobbs by 11 points among that age group. link The poll is of registered voters, not likely ones. Hopefully lower turnout rates will blunt this advantage.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2022 9:57:00 GMT -5
Arizona has lots of retirees. Perhaps too many think she will do better with the economy, i.e. fix their stock market losses. Time and the changing pandemic will do that anyway. Lake has a strong lead among voters between the ages of 18 to 39 - she leads Hobbs by 11 points among that age group. link The poll is of registered voters, not likely ones. Hopefully lower turnout rates will blunt this advantage. turnout seems to have little impact on voting. www.factcheck.org/2016/06/sanders-shaky-turnout-claim/
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2022 12:16:58 GMT -5
Lake has a strong lead among voters between the ages of 18 to 39 - she leads Hobbs by 11 points among that age group. link The poll is of registered voters, not likely ones. Hopefully lower turnout rates will blunt this advantage. turnout seems to have little impact on voting. www.factcheck.org/2016/06/sanders-shaky-turnout-claim/ Thank you for sharing that excellent article. The details are very informative. I encourage people to read those details.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2022 12:31:08 GMT -5
i learned a few new things, as well.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2022 12:53:47 GMT -5
i learned a few new things, as well. Hopefully one was that my previous point on turnout of a specific subset in a specific election can be significant.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2022 12:57:32 GMT -5
no. i have been hearing for years that high turnout favors Democrats. that turns out not to be entirely true, or that the impact is much smaller than i had believed.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2022 13:05:17 GMT -5
no. i have been hearing for years that high turnout favors Democrats. that turns out not to be entirely true, or that the impact is much smaller than i had believed. Details can be challenging.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2022 12:19:18 GMT -5
538 and R2W passed each other yesterday at 64%. 538 now thinks the odds of Democrats winning the Senate is 63% R2W is up to 65%. i think we will just call it a steady 64% average. what 538 is seeing is a deterioration in the Generic Ballot, and in some specific races. but candidly, i am not seeing a LOT of erosion. certainly nothing to merit a 5% lowering of odds in the last week. this will be a good test of which oddsmaker has the best bead on things. they are really starting to deviate on a couple of races- most notably Georgia. R2W has the odds about 15% higher than 538. they are also starting to deviate in PA. so, this last week was a rare moment of agreement. clearly R2W is not convinced that the Democrats are eroding in standing, and 538 is. we will see. if 538 is right, this whole thing will probably not be decided until the runoff in GA.
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 18, 2022 17:14:12 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2022 17:46:46 GMT -5
i heard that people were getting "arrested for voting" in Florida. this was in the shopping cue, however, so who the hell knows?
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 18, 2022 19:56:05 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2022 22:15:26 GMT -5
oh good. it is just more roleplay from our nation's favorite wannabe cop.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2022 20:53:02 GMT -5
ok, Fetterman's numbers are slipping in PA. now i am getting nervous. the Senate is nearly a tossup, now.
worse still, the Generic Ballot has flipped to the GOP.
oh, and Biden's numbers are dropping again.
absolutely no good news for Democrats.
enjoy your theocracy, i guess.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2022 21:15:33 GMT -5
sorry about the bitter cynicism, there. but this reminds me a LOT of 2016 right now. and i was one of the people that PUBLICLY felt that it was too close to call. Democrats appeared to have it sewn up, and then at the last second it all fell apart for them.
40% of the voting public is living in make believe land, where the economy is crappy, we are being invaded by filthy hordes, and where white people are discriminated against.
it's fucking depressing.
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 21, 2022 21:38:43 GMT -5
Arizona has lots of retirees. Perhaps too many think she will do better with the economy, i.e. fix their stock market losses. Time and the changing pandemic will do that anyway. Lake has a strong lead among voters between the ages of 18 to 39 - she leads Hobbs by 11 points among that age group. link The poll is of registered voters, not likely ones. Hopefully lower turnout rates will blunt this advantage. That is because Hobbs has zero personality and has decided that staying hidden is the best campaign tactic. Lake will win. I am sooooo hoping that Finchem loses. He will be a key nail in the coffin of democracy for the whole country. Everyone should care that a guy who said he will not certify an election, even if there is no proof of fraud, being Secretary of State of a swing state - he can pull this whole mother fucking country under water and hold us there until we stop breathing.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2022 20:36:00 GMT -5
Lake has a strong lead among voters between the ages of 18 to 39 - she leads Hobbs by 11 points among that age group. link The poll is of registered voters, not likely ones. Hopefully lower turnout rates will blunt this advantage. That is because Hobbs has zero personality and has decided that staying hidden is the best campaign tactic. Lake will win. I am sooooo hoping that Finchem loses. He will be a key nail in the coffin of democracy for the whole country. Everyone should care that a guy who said he will not certify an election, even if there is no proof of fraud, being Secretary of State of a swing state - he can pull this whole mother fucking country under water and hold us there until we stop breathing. your Arizona slate looks absolutely grim. it is wall to wall election deniers, and most of them are going to win: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-trump-election-fraud/edit: the Arizona election deniers are at the bottom of the page.
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 27, 2022 16:24:42 GMT -5
One very strange and twisted candidate for Michigan governor. Michigan GOP gubernatorial nominee invoked conspiracy claiming Democrats sought to ‘topple’ US in retaliation for losing Civil WarThe Republican gubernatorial nominee in Michigan invoked a conspiracy that the Covid-19 pandemic and protests in the summer of 2020 after the killing of George Floyd were part of a decades-long plan by the Democratic Party to “topple” the United States as retaliation for losing the US Civil War, adding that the party wanted to enslave people “again.” Tudor Dixon, a former TV news anchor, made the remarks on the far-right streaming news network Real America’s Voice, which hosts former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s show, in late June 2020. In a six-minute monologue at the beginning of the show, Dixon said that after the “attempted creation of the Black House Autonomous Zone outside of the White House,” referring to a cordoned off area near the White House erected by activists, that Democrats were using this moment to “topple” the US. “The country today is divided, and this was the plan. It’s been in the works for years. The idea that you can topple the greatest country in the world. But to topple a country like the United States of America, you must be planning this for decades,” said Dixon. “Why wouldn’t that come from the party that lost the Civil War? The party that wanted to own people because they viewed them as less than human? Do you think that the Democrats are over losing to the north?” During the Civil War, the Democratic Party itself was divided on the issue of slavery as some Democrats wanted to expand slavery in the West while others wanted to leave it up to referenda in the new territories. It was that divide that led to President Abraham Lincoln’s victory in the 1860 election. More than 100 years later, however, after the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Democratic Party lost more and more southern White voters to Republicans, who adopted the mantra of state’s rights and the “Southern strategy” to appeal to conservative White voters. Dixon went on to claim that Democrats used the Covid-19 pandemic and the killing of Floyd to divide the country and feed White people “white guilt” so they can assume power and “gladly own” and enslave people of all colors “again.” “Democrat leaders, meanwhile, they sat back in their designer suits, eating their fillet with their nice béarnaise sauce while they watched the country rip itself apart because they were getting it all back, the slaves again,” said Dixon. “This time they’d be people of all colors – poor and broken – looking to them and begging for help. And they will gladly own you,” adding that next they will take “your guns, your speech and your God.” CNN asked the Dixon campaign about these comments. The campaign responded not by addressing the substance of the comments but rather by claiming “CNN is rushing to the aid of their favored candidate, Gretchen Whitmer.” CNN followed up by asking if Dixon wrote the monologue about the Civil War, the campaign did not respond. A CNN poll released Monday found that incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leads Dixon by six points, 52% to 46%. False claims on abortion and educationA CNN KFile review of other comments Dixon made found that she also peddled inaccurate claims about schools and education, including falsely suggesting that school nurses could perform abortions without parental consent if a ballot initiative was passed. “It could be a school nurse that would be giving somebody an abortion without a parent’s consent,” said Dixon in a July 2022 interview with a local TV network. “It’s a healthcare professional that can perform an abortion. That’s a really open-ended term,” she said in a different interview that month with the network. “So it could be anybody, it could be a school nurse.” Dixon made similar claims on a Michigan Radio morning show this past July. The ballot initiative, Proposal 3, would amend Michigan’s state constitution to create a “right to reproductive freedom, which entails the right to make and effectuate decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy” if passed in this year’s election. Nurses are not allowed to perform abortions in Michigan. But under Michigan state law, schools are forbidden from discussing abortions in the context of reproductive health, and teachers and staff face disciplinary action from their districts for referring or assisting students in obtaining an abortion. Dixon strongly opposes abortion rights, and has said she supports exceptions only if the life of the mother is at risk, but not for rape or incest. Dixon’s comments align with her education platform pushing parents’ rights and admonishing educators for choosing school curriculum she disagrees with. She suggested that teaching children about equity was akin to promoting socialism at an event with a local conservative organization this past January. “Equity means the government is gonna provide everything for you,” she said. “So you are teaching children everybody should be equal. That is the next step to socialism, because what they’re saying is that government should be providing everything for you, and you should all be equally poor.” In her June 2020 monologue on Real America’s Voice, Dixon also claimed that Democrats were not teaching the “true” history in public schools, which she later described as “government-run indoctrination centers,” and said the party didn’t want people to know that White Republicans “freed the slaves.” “They have rewritten history for years. It’s not Republicans in our schools. It’s not Republicans running the unions, and it’s not Republicans writing the curriculum for our children. No, it’s Democrats,” she said, adding that the exclusion of Black Wall Street and the Tulsa race massacre in 1921 from school curriculums was because Democrats control curriculums. “They don’t want you to know that history, the true history.” Michigan GOP gubernatorial nominee invoked conspiracy claiming Democrats sought to ‘topple’ US in retaliation for losing Civil War
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