Opti
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Post by Opti on Nov 6, 2022 13:34:50 GMT -5
Remember to vote team Blue. We need to save democracy because some folks can't be bothered to do so.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 14:32:25 GMT -5
updates: 538 rates the Senate as 47% chance of 50/50, 53% chance of 51R. race2win has it at 51.5% chance of 50/50. so, it really IS a "Dead Heat". on the generic ballot, it is R+1.1%, about the same as it has been for the last week. Republicans AND Democrats are both rising on the ballot right now, squeezing out undecided vote. this number is NOT BAD for Democrats, and gives them a SHOT at holding the House, if they can get some last minute movement in their field of candidates. MANY of these races are in the low single digits of separation. six of the last seven generic ballot polls show Democrats either LEADING or TIED. this is all in THE LAST WEEK. this is a LEADING INDICATOR, btw. (individual race polls LAG this number, because of polling frequency and quality) Biden's approval number has been between 41.5% and 43% since AUGUST 25TH. basically, a standstill. he is not a factor in midterms, imo, with this number, which is "low average". now, the specific races. the key one is Oz/Fetterman. i figured this one was over after the debate, but Fetterman is basically tied. four of the last five surveys show Oz in the lead. HOWEVER, the best rated pollster of the bunch, Marist, shows him +6. so.....i dunno about this one. he might hang on. the pollsters seem to think that the impact of the debate is over, and Fetterman is still in it. more troubling is Georgia. 538 shows Republicans with the edge there. but race2win does NOT. so, this is a crucial seat. if the GOP wins this, they will probably win the Senate. HOWEVER, there is a strong possibility that this race will end in a RUNOFF. the odds favor the GOP in that circumstance, imo. but that puts the final verdict a month off. NH and AZ are talked about as being "tossups", but i don't think they are. i think they are COMPETITIVE, but that Democrats will prevail there. this brings us to NV. this state is quite troublesome. Democrats have done a poor job of mobilizing early voting, and the result is that they are at a DISTINCT disadvantage here. they will probably lose this one. which is why i said what i did about GA. lastly, there is an OUTSIDE CHANCE for Democrats in OH, WI, and NC. they maybe have a 50% chance of winning ONE of the three, if it is a good year for them. so, there you have it. further downballot: i am worried that AZ will SWEEP the election officials offices. i am not that worried that there will be a supermajority in the PA legislature (which would render the governors race immaterial). but i am QUITE worried about governor races in NV, AZ and WI. losing all three might not be a disaster* for Democrats, but it would certainly not be good news. OR appeared to be a potential governor pickup for the GOP earlier, but not so much, now. best wishes. vote. it is VERY close, and a lot is riding on this election.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 7, 2022 21:13:12 GMT -5
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 7, 2022 22:32:45 GMT -5
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Nov 8, 2022 13:47:32 GMT -5
it's show time, djAdvocate! Final predictions? Hopes? Fears I'm.....terrified...... yet hope remains while the company is true......
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Nov 8, 2022 13:54:26 GMT -5
Hope for the best, but expect the worst. We’ll be at our place where we don’t watch TV.🥳
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Nov 8, 2022 14:10:31 GMT -5
updates: 538 rates the Senate as 47% chance of 50/50, 53% chance of 51R. race2win has it at 51.5% chance of 50/50. so, it really IS a "Dead Heat". on the generic ballot, it is R+1.1%, about the same as it has been for the last week. Republicans AND Democrats are both rising on the ballot right now, squeezing out undecided vote. this number is NOT BAD for Democrats, and gives them a SHOT at holding the House, if they can get some last minute movement in their field of candidates. MANY of these races are in the low single digits of separation. six of the last seven generic ballot polls show Democrats either LEADING or TIED. this is all in THE LAST WEEK. this is a LEADING INDICATOR, btw. (individual race polls LAG this number, because of polling frequency and quality) Biden's approval number has been between 41.5% and 43% since AUGUST 25TH. basically, a standstill. he is not a factor in midterms, imo, with this number, which is "low average". now, the specific races. the key one is Oz/Fetterman. i figured this one was over after the debate, but Fetterman is basically tied. four of the last five surveys show Oz in the lead. HOWEVER, the best rated pollster of the bunch, Marist, shows him +6. so.....i dunno about this one. he might hang on. the pollsters seem to think that the impact of the debate is over, and Fetterman is still in it. more troubling is Georgia. 538 shows Republicans with the edge there. but race2win does NOT. so, this is a crucial seat. if the GOP wins this, they will probably win the Senate. HOWEVER, there is a strong possibility that this race will end in a RUNOFF. the odds favor the GOP in that circumstance, imo. but that puts the final verdict a month off. NH and AZ are talked about as being "tossups", but i don't think they are. i think they are COMPETITIVE, but that Democrats will prevail there. this brings us to NV. this state is quite troublesome. Democrats have done a poor job of mobilizing early voting, and the result is that they are at a DISTINCT disadvantage here. they will probably lose this one. which is why i said what i did about GA. lastly, there is an OUTSIDE CHANCE for Democrats in OH, WI, and NC. they maybe have a 50% chance of winning ONE of the three, if it is a good year for them. so, there you have it. further downballot: i am worried that AZ will SWEEP the election officials offices. i am not that worried that there will be a supermajority in the PA legislature (which would render the governors race immaterial). but i am QUITE worried about governor races in NV, AZ and WI. losing all three might not be a disaster* for Democrats, but it would certainly not be good news. OR appeared to be a potential governor pickup for the GOP earlier, but not so much, now. best wishes. vote. it is VERY close, and a lot is riding on this election. One glaring problem... 538 (and RCP) are garbage this cycle. Why? They've been allowing the massive number of GOP-sponsored swing states spam polls in the last two weeks to pollute their model. Nate Silver has been taking heat for this, and has been actively trying to discount it (as Nate Silver does). He's gone so far to "justify" this by saying that if the GOP is spam polling, why aren't the Dems doing it as well, to even things out? WTF? Anyways, Garbage In, Garbage Out. For this election (and maybe all going forward), I currently prefer the Early Vote data crunching and analysis at TargetSmart: targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022As of yesterday, the Dems were up 50-39 (+11) with a 4.7 million vote lead nationally, and are significantly overperforming in all swing states, and many others, as well as with youth voters, hispanics, etc. Over 40 million votes already in, and it seriously looks like a blue wave is in effect. For some more in-depth analysis, see Simon Rosenberg's latest breakdown here: We have yet to see a red wave. Will there be one today? Maybe. Can the GOP still win? Sure. But things appear much more encouraging for the Dems than Nate's Polluted Polls, Inc or GOP-owned RCP would suggest. Who will turn out to be correct? We'll just have to wait and see.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 8, 2022 16:13:23 GMT -5
it's show time, djAdvocate ! Final predictions? Hopes? Fears I'm.....terrified...... yet hope remains while the company is true...... i give the GOP 6:1 odds of gaining control of the House. the Senate is a pure tossup. 50/50. there is no tilt in it. if Fetterman wins, Democrats will probably hold on. if Fetterman loses, Democrats will probably be in the minority. i am hopeful but not certain that Arizona will have a split ticket on the election front, and that the GOP will NOT win a supermajority in PA. that means that they probably will NOT be able to control the elections there, no matter what happens in the governor races. WI is another troubling race. all in all, it is probably going to be bad for Democrats, but not a disaster. might be a disaster for the country, depending on how far off the mark that 50/50 is.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 8, 2022 16:15:18 GMT -5
updates: 538 rates the Senate as 47% chance of 50/50, 53% chance of 51R. race2win has it at 51.5% chance of 50/50. so, it really IS a "Dead Heat". on the generic ballot, it is R+1.1%, about the same as it has been for the last week. Republicans AND Democrats are both rising on the ballot right now, squeezing out undecided vote. this number is NOT BAD for Democrats, and gives them a SHOT at holding the House, if they can get some last minute movement in their field of candidates. MANY of these races are in the low single digits of separation. six of the last seven generic ballot polls show Democrats either LEADING or TIED. this is all in THE LAST WEEK. this is a LEADING INDICATOR, btw. (individual race polls LAG this number, because of polling frequency and quality) Biden's approval number has been between 41.5% and 43% since AUGUST 25TH. basically, a standstill. he is not a factor in midterms, imo, with this number, which is "low average". now, the specific races. the key one is Oz/Fetterman. i figured this one was over after the debate, but Fetterman is basically tied. four of the last five surveys show Oz in the lead. HOWEVER, the best rated pollster of the bunch, Marist, shows him +6. so.....i dunno about this one. he might hang on. the pollsters seem to think that the impact of the debate is over, and Fetterman is still in it. more troubling is Georgia. 538 shows Republicans with the edge there. but race2win does NOT. so, this is a crucial seat. if the GOP wins this, they will probably win the Senate. HOWEVER, there is a strong possibility that this race will end in a RUNOFF. the odds favor the GOP in that circumstance, imo. but that puts the final verdict a month off. NH and AZ are talked about as being "tossups", but i don't think they are. i think they are COMPETITIVE, but that Democrats will prevail there. this brings us to NV. this state is quite troublesome. Democrats have done a poor job of mobilizing early voting, and the result is that they are at a DISTINCT disadvantage here. they will probably lose this one. which is why i said what i did about GA. lastly, there is an OUTSIDE CHANCE for Democrats in OH, WI, and NC. they maybe have a 50% chance of winning ONE of the three, if it is a good year for them. so, there you have it. further downballot: i am worried that AZ will SWEEP the election officials offices. i am not that worried that there will be a supermajority in the PA legislature (which would render the governors race immaterial). but i am QUITE worried about governor races in NV, AZ and WI. losing all three might not be a disaster* for Democrats, but it would certainly not be good news. OR appeared to be a potential governor pickup for the GOP earlier, but not so much, now. best wishes. vote. it is VERY close, and a lot is riding on this election. One glaring problem... 538 (and RCP) are garbage this cycle. Why? They've been allowing the massive number of GOP-sponsored swing states spam polls in the last two weeks to pollute their model. Nate Silver has been taking heat for this, and has been actively trying to discount it (as Nate Silver does). He's gone so far to "justify" this by saying that if the GOP is spam polling, why aren't the Dems doing it as well, to even things out? WTF? Anyways, Garbage In, Garbage Out. For this election (and maybe all going forward), I currently prefer the Early Vote data crunching and analysis at TargetSmart: targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022As of yesterday, the Dems were up 50-39 (+11) with a 4.7 million vote lead nationally, and are significantly overperforming in all swing states, and many others, as well as with youth voters, hispanics, etc. Over 40 million votes already in, and it seriously looks like a blue wave is in effect. For some more in-depth analysis, see Simon Rosenberg's latest breakdown here: We have yet to see a red wave. Will there be one today? Maybe. Can the GOP still win? Sure. But things appear much more encouraging for the Dems than Nate's Polluted Polls, Inc or GOP-owned RCP would suggest. Who will turn out to be correct? We'll just have to wait and see. i have looked at the higher quality polls, and they DO make Democrats look more competitive, with the exception of Trafalgar.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Nov 8, 2022 23:23:33 GMT -5
So it looks like Boebert is going to lose. Sorry not sorry.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 9, 2022 0:15:55 GMT -5
Sarah Sanders Huckabee won Arkansas' governor race.
In honor of winning, a SNL flashback tribute to her.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 9, 2022 0:47:43 GMT -5
So it looks like Boebert is going to lose. Sorry not sorry. no more gun porn. boo!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 9, 2022 0:49:32 GMT -5
so, the Democrats have a fair shot of winning the HOUSE. didn't predict that.
the Senate is still a tossup. we really need PA to come through. Democrats are polling about 1% better than i predicted. which might make things interesting in NV.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Nov 9, 2022 0:53:51 GMT -5
so, the Democrats have a fair shot of winning the HOUSE. didn't predict that. the Senate is still a tossup. we really need PA to come through. Democrats are polling about 1% better than i predicted. which might make things interesting in NV. I think PA will come through, but I am concerned H. Walker could win. Horrible candidate, I'm surprised he is even competitive. GOPers, I guess can just start running sock puppets.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 9, 2022 1:01:45 GMT -5
so, the Democrats have a fair shot of winning the HOUSE. didn't predict that. the Senate is still a tossup. we really need PA to come through. Democrats are polling about 1% better than i predicted. which might make things interesting in NV. I think PA will come through, but I am concerned H. Walker could win. Horrible candidate, I'm surprised he is even competitive. GOPers, I guess can just start running sock puppets. NBC called PA for FETTERMAN. odds for Democrats just went up to 84% on Stossel for controlling the Senate. it is not over yet, but......wow. electionbettingodds.com/Senate2022.html
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 9, 2022 2:23:00 GMT -5
i am pretty confident we will wake up to a senate that is 50D, 49R, with one runoff election yet to run. IF that is the case, Warnock could render Manchen irrelevant. that would be nice. good night for Democrats. sorry i doubted you.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Nov 9, 2022 6:59:33 GMT -5
I was going to post this last night, but I didn't get to it. Just a story about Oz and his wife and a crude encounter w/ Trump. www.msn.com/en-us/entertainment/news/oz-saw-trump-push-older-woman-into-pool-jimmy-kimmel-says-disgusting/ar-AA13SPJE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=975bd826d2c24bbebb874ba333d15a92"A very glamorous older woman walks up to Trump, and he's telling somebody else how good she looks or something, and she says, 'Donald, how do I look?' And he says, 'You would look better wet,' and he shoves her in the pool," Kimmel said on his show.
The host claimed that the older woman was "humiliated."
"[Trump] pushes this fully dressed older lady into the pool, and she's humiliated," Kimmel said. "And Lisa Oz helped her get her out of the pool and she's like, 'Get some towels,' and helps her and warms her up, and Trump just looked on and laughed—like a maniac."
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 9, 2022 7:36:11 GMT -5
I was going to post this last night, but I didn't get to it. Just a story about Oz and his wife and a crude encounter w/ Trump. www.msn.com/en-us/entertainment/news/oz-saw-trump-push-older-woman-into-pool-jimmy-kimmel-says-disgusting/ar-AA13SPJE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=975bd826d2c24bbebb874ba333d15a92"A very glamorous older woman walks up to Trump, and he's telling somebody else how good she looks or something, and she says, 'Donald, how do I look?' And he says, 'You would look better wet,' and he shoves her in the pool," Kimmel said on his show.
The host claimed that the older woman was "humiliated."
"[Trump] pushes this fully dressed older lady into the pool, and she's humiliated," Kimmel said. "And Lisa Oz helped her get her out of the pool and she's like, 'Get some towels,' and helps her and warms her up, and Trump just looked on and laughed—like a maniac."This is fucking third grade bully humor. Wonder what the evangelicals think about that.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 9, 2022 7:44:21 GMT -5
No red wave.
Fetterman beat Oz.
Warnock has 49 % but needs a run off if he doesn’t get to 50%. A libertarian got 2% so a run off will be tough but he won the last runoff. Hopefully republicans will be disgruntled enough with Walker they just won’t show up to vote.
Wes Moore won his Governor race - I really like him. He wrote and excellent book called The Other Wes Moore about how he grew up in poverty with another kid named Wes Moore, and how he became successful while the other kid wound up in jail.
Big loser - Trump.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 9, 2022 7:57:20 GMT -5
Although Trump was complaining this AM that the reason one of his candidates lost was because he wasn’t outspoken enough about the 2020 election.
Yeah, that’s the ticket.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 9, 2022 8:31:41 GMT -5
Cheap entertainment watching Fox and Friends this morning. Not a happy bunch and a couple people they had on actually blamed Trump!
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Nov 9, 2022 9:06:43 GMT -5
I was going to post this last night, but I didn't get to it. Just a story about Oz and his wife and a crude encounter w/ Trump. www.msn.com/en-us/entertainment/news/oz-saw-trump-push-older-woman-into-pool-jimmy-kimmel-says-disgusting/ar-AA13SPJE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=975bd826d2c24bbebb874ba333d15a92"A very glamorous older woman walks up to Trump, and he's telling somebody else how good she looks or something, and she says, 'Donald, how do I look?' And he says, 'You would look better wet,' and he shoves her in the pool," Kimmel said on his show.
The host claimed that the older woman was "humiliated."
"[Trump] pushes this fully dressed older lady into the pool, and she's humiliated," Kimmel said. "And Lisa Oz helped her get her out of the pool and she's like, 'Get some towels,' and helps her and warms her up, and Trump just looked on and laughed—like a maniac."This is fucking third grade bully humor. Wonder what the evangelicals think about that. I'm sure he was baptizing her.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Nov 9, 2022 9:07:25 GMT -5
Although Trump was complaining this AM that the reason one of his candidates lost was because he wasn’t outspoken enough about the 2020 election. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Not outspoken enough? He never STFU.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 9, 2022 9:32:19 GMT -5
Although Trump was complaining this AM that the reason one of his candidates lost was because he wasn’t outspoken enough about the 2020 election. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Not outspoken enough? He never STFU. I think that’s part of the GOP problem. No one likes a whiner. Also, while the GOP tried to make inflation a big deal, they had no plan to help with it - at least the Dems had a plan.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Nov 9, 2022 10:32:55 GMT -5
Oh joy! In Wa-3 Gluesenkamp-Perez has a solid lead over Trumpy Joe Kent, a real extremist. This would turn this district blue after the Repo-cons ousted Herrera-Buetler for voting for Trump’s second impeachment. Hoisted by their own pitard comes to mind.🥳
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Nov 9, 2022 11:09:37 GMT -5
Although Trump was complaining this AM that the reason one of his candidates lost was because he wasn’t outspoken enough about the 2020 election. Yeah, that’s the ticket. It is the ticket. . . to keeping them out of office. So I say go go go! Scream from the rooftops! I really do honestly think this needs to happen so the "anyone but Trump" voters remember why they didn't vote for him in 2020. Him and his minions being quiet allows people to start to forget and start getting nostalgic thinking things weren't THAT bad with these people in charge, especially with people's tendency to blame whoever the current sitting president is for all the world's ills. If they are yelling in your face it's a lot harder to turn a blind eye.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Nov 9, 2022 11:26:51 GMT -5
Not outspoken enough? He never STFU. I think that’s part of the GOP problem. No one likes a whiner. Also, while the GOP tried to make inflation a big deal, they had no plan to help with it - at least the Dems had a plan. Except for most of the current GOP is a bunch of big whiners.
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Nov 9, 2022 12:00:24 GMT -5
Sorry I haven't had the heart to watch. Who got Congress?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 9, 2022 12:04:19 GMT -5
I think that’s part of the GOP problem. No one likes a whiner. Also, while the GOP tried to make inflation a big deal, they had no plan to help with it - at least the Dems had a plan. Except for most of the current GOP is a bunch of big whiners. MAWA
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 9, 2022 12:05:03 GMT -5
Sorry I haven't had the heart to watch. Who got Congress? unbelievably, it is still undetermined, later. and it is not because of election interference. it is because it is too close to call.
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