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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2022 18:46:00 GMT -5
this is actually a common move before debates. to lower expectations. i am not sure tht it has ever worked.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 19, 2022 20:58:54 GMT -5
this is actually a common move before debates. to lower expectations. i am not sure tht it has ever worked. Herschel Walker is trying a novel approach in his race against Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia: Don’t expect too much out of me, I’m just not that smart. I think it is that specific claim of "not so smart" that Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large, saw as "novel".
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2022 21:40:10 GMT -5
this is actually a common move before debates. to lower expectations. i am not sure tht it has ever worked. Herschel Walker is trying a novel approach in his race against Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia: Don’t expect too much out of me, I’m just not that smart. I think it is that specific claim of "not so smart" that Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large, saw as "novel". i realize that. it was what i was talking about. i am not sure how different that claim is from "i am just a simple man". i have heard that claim so many times i have lost count.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 20, 2022 10:52:43 GMT -5
538 and racetowin are now no longer in agreement for the Senate (except both think Democrats will have a majority).
racetowin rates NV and OH as tossup 538 says NV is leaning D and OH is leaning R racetowin says BOTH NC and WI are tilting R 538 thinks WI is a tossup, and NC is tilting R
so, combining these two prediction sites, we have:
NV = tossup to lean D OH = tossup to lean R NC = leaning R WI = tossup to lean R GA = tossup to lean D
when viewed THIS WAY, Democrats end up with 50, by the skin of their teeth. i say that because they have to win one of these to stay in charge, and that my confidence is shaken by how tight the races are in GA and NV. then again, Democrats could easily get 52, also. this is a fun one to watch.
PS- i just registered to vote.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 20, 2022 10:54:19 GMT -5
PPS- again- note- neither site can agree on the tossups at this point. which is weird. in addition, there is something like 15% undecided in NV right now, which is....it makes it really difficult to tell what is going on.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 21, 2022 19:03:33 GMT -5
Herschel Walker’s bizarre move to lower expectations “I’m this country boy. I’m not that smart. And he’s that preacher. He’s a smart man, wears these nice suits,” Walker said of Warnock at a recent press conference filmed by the Savannah Morning News. “So he’s going to show up and embarrass me at the debate October the 14th, and I’m just waiting. I’ll show up and I’m going to do my best.” This man might become one of one hundred United States Senators. Is he really, truly one of the two best the citizens of Georgia can toss in as members of that body? Come on people, we deserve better. Well, Marge Greene comes from Georgia, so yes, I think Hershel kind of fits right in there. He thinks China is blowing their bad air over to us, and we need to just blow it back. Kind of like the space lasers. We don’t spend enough on the school system here, apparently.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2022 19:07:53 GMT -5
a passing grade in civics should be required for high school graduation.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2022 21:27:11 GMT -5
538 and racetowin are now no longer in agreement for the Senate (except both think Democrats will have a majority). racetowin rates NV and OH as tossup 538 says NV is leaning D and OH is leaning R racetowin says BOTH NC and WI are tilting R 538 thinks WI is a tossup, and NC is tilting R so, combining these two prediction sites, we have: NV = tossup to lean D OH = tossup to lean R NC = leaning R WI = tossup to lean R GA = tossup to lean D when viewed THIS WAY, Democrats end up with 50, by the skin of their teeth. i say that because they have to win one of these to stay in charge, and that my confidence is shaken by how tight the races are in GA and NV. then again, Democrats could easily get 52, also. this is a fun one to watch. PS- i just registered to vote. racetowin just took OH out of tossup. it is now lean R 538 thinks that WI, GA and NV are tossups. so here is the comp now: NV = tossup OH = lean R the odds on racetowin are +1% to 65% generic ballot is +0.4% to D+1.9 Biden has inched up 0.3% i think what is happening here is that the GOP is running out of time. but clearly, Nevada is slipping away from Democrats according to both of these sites. even if the GOP wins nationally on a vote basis, it is highly unlikely they can break through 50-50 and take the Senate. so, i can see why the observers are putting this one pretty solidly in the Democrats pocket. they could easily win 53-54 seats, even with a small national margin. and that is the current prediction. for some reason the House prediction is +2% at 538 to 31%, and +1% to 36% at racetowin. i am not sure what is going on there. the seat margin is also down at both sites. at 538 they are now predicting GOP+15. at RTW, it is down to GOP+11. so, again, i am sticking with my last forecast. the House is tilting GOP, and the Senate is likely Democrat.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2022 21:41:47 GMT -5
one other thing to note. Democrats have not gotten beyond about 200 secure seats in either survey in the House. that would be a major obstacle to overcome, and i will watch it closely.
summary: three tossups in Senate: WI, GA, and NV. NV is truly down the middle, but is trending Republican. WI is tilt GOP, but trending Democrat. GA is tilt Democrat and trending Democrat.
so, it is possible that Democrats will win all three. but it is more likely they will only win two. more likely by FAR. and it is possible that the GOP will win two. it is unlikely the GOP will win all three. particularly given the fact that there is a 2% spoiler in GA again.
Saturday update: Biden's poll numbers are at a 2021 high again (43%). and, again, that is not a good number. but he is no longer a liability.
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Post by Opti on Sept 22, 2022 21:46:05 GMT -5
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohio-gop-house-candidate-misrepresents-military-service/ar-AA125ZNXa review of his service records, which the AP obtained from the National Archives, and an accounting provided by the Air Force draw that picture into question.
Rather than deploying to Afghanistan, as he has claimed, the records state that Majewski was based at Kadena Air Base in Japan for much of his active-duty service. He later deployed for six months to Qatar in May 2002, where he helped load and unload planes while serving as a “passenger operations specialist,” the records show.
While he was based in Qatar, Majewski’s campaign said he would land at other air bases to transfer military passengers and supplies. They did not respond to a direct question about whether he was ever in Afghanistan.
Experts argue Majewski’s description of himself as a “combat veteran” is also misleading.
During the Persian Gulf War, countries used as combat support areas were designated for the first time as combat zones despite the low risk of American service members ever facing hostilities. Qatar was among the countries that received the designation.
Majewski’s campaign said that he calls himself a combat veteran because the area he deployed to — Qatar — was a recognized combat zone.
There’s also the matter of Majewski’s final rank and reenlistment code when he left active duty after four years of service.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2022 21:58:27 GMT -5
that seat was already lean D. this should help her put it away.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2022 22:39:09 GMT -5
oh, hell. i forgot one super important fact.
Democrats are now at their highest level in the Generic Ballot in 14 months. but they are still 5% below where they stood two years ago.
NOTE: i made a mistake on the Generic Ballot bias. i thought it was R+2, but i was wrong. it is D+2. so D+2 = 0 on average. so, both parties are tied right now.
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Post by tallguy on Sept 22, 2022 23:52:13 GMT -5
oh, hell. i forgot one super important fact. Democrats are now at their highest level in the Generic Ballot in 26 months.but they are still 5% below where they stood two years ago. NOTE: i made a mistake on the Generic Ballot bias. i thought it was R+2, but i was wrong. it is D+2. so D+2 = 0 on average. so, both parties are tied right now. What am I missing? How can both of those things be true? Democrats are at their highest level in 26 months but are 5% below where they were 24 months ago? Something doesn't sound right.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2022 23:55:11 GMT -5
oh, hell. i forgot one super important fact. Democrats are now at their highest level in the Generic Ballot in 26 months.but they are still 5% below where they stood two years ago. NOTE: i made a mistake on the Generic Ballot bias. i thought it was R+2, but i was wrong. it is D+2. so D+2 = 0 on average. so, both parties are tied right now. What am I missing? How can both of those things be true? Democrats are at their highest level in 26 months but are 5% below where they were 24 months ago? Something doesn't sound right. good catch. i got 24 hours and 12 months mixed up in my head. i meant 14 months.
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 23, 2022 6:31:48 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2022 11:07:00 GMT -5
if it doesn't include destruction of the government, i will be very disappointed.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 23, 2022 21:43:25 GMT -5
if it doesn't include destruction of the government, i will be very disappointed. Nah it’s all the ‘Mercian stuff - keep the transgenders out of women’s sports and the fetuses in the women’s wombs. Weird how much of the GOP platform revolves around bossing women around.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2022 22:13:33 GMT -5
non-men. let's be even clearer.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 27, 2022 13:24:30 GMT -5
there has been very little movement in the last three weeks. the odds of the GOP taking the house and losing the Senate are about the same (2:1). Biden's approval rating is stuck at 42%.
if anything in September, the GOP has done a little better in some key races. not enough to change their odds, only because TIME is getting away from them. voting has already begun in some places.
Democrats seemed to be doing better when the J6 commission was working. we will see if that has an impact going forward.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2022 1:33:44 GMT -5
Democrats hit a new 15 month high in the Generic Ballot this week. it is not helping their chances, however. over half the undecided vote has moved to the GOP, which is pushing Johnson ahead in Wisconsin, and keeping the GOP on top in Nevada.
so, between the two sites, the tossups are GA, NV and OH. however, the consensus is ONLY on NV. 538 says OH leans R race2win has GA leaning D
the polling in Nevada is trending Republican. it has been for quite a while. Laxalt has led in the last FIVE polls.
the Senate might NOT be decided in November. it might end up being decided in Jan. again.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 2, 2022 13:51:27 GMT -5
the house races are definitely tightening up.
538 has the gap down to 13, and racetowin has it down to 10.
furthermore, both are showing the highest number of Democratic seats of the election cycle.
odds of the GOP winning are down to 62% at Racetowin. so, for the senate, we are showing 63-69% chance of the Democrats winning, and in the house, we are showing 62-68% chance of the GOP winning. again, this is virtually identical. and since the slippage has been in the opposite direction, these two different majority trends are nearly identical (inverse) over the last month or two.
to put this another way, both the House and Senate are getting closer, but the prediction is the same as it was over most of the last year.
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 3, 2022 20:58:09 GMT -5
Enough to sink Herschel Walker? He was an awful candidate even before this news broke. And it doesn't appear Jesus has shown him the error of his past ways. Herschel Walker paid for a girlfriend's abortion -- and she kept the actual receipts: reportTrump-endorsed candidate Herschel Walker has staked out his position as a no-compromise anti-abortion candidate in his run against incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock. However, The Daily Beast is now reporting that Walker once paid for an abortion for a former girlfriend, who literally kept the receipts for it and is now sharing them with reporters. The woman, who asked not to be identified by the publication, told The Daily Beast that Walker urged her to get an abortion after she got pregnant in 2009, and that she got him to reimburse her for the procedure. "She supported these claims with a $575 receipt from the abortion clinic, a 'get well' card from Walker, and a bank deposit receipt that included an image of a signed $700 personal check from Walker," the publication writes. "The woman said there was a $125 difference because she 'ball-parked' the cost of an abortion after Googling the procedure and added on expenses such as travel and recovery costs." The Daily Beast also talked with a friend who helped take care of her in the wake of the procedure who corroborated her account. Walker attorney Robert Ingram told The Daily Beast that the woman's story was "false" and accused them of trying to "target Black conservatives." Herschel Walker paid for a girlfriend's abortion -- and she kept the actual receipts: report
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2022 20:40:14 GMT -5
the two trackers are getting really close. the rating is now 63-66% chance of the Democrats taking the Senate. this is not a comfortable lead. this is razor thin. it is almost in tossup territory. meanwhile, the Generic ballot is now at a "Cycle high" for Democrats at 45.5%, which is good news. this should prevent further erosion. also, Biden's approval has been between 42-43% for an entire month now. he is not likely to be a major factor in midterms. his disapproval is now at a six month low of 52%, so his D-A number is below 10% for the first time since March. it looks like the slight deterioration we are seeing in the Senate is impacting house races, as well. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/www.racetothewh.com/houseDemocrats have been trending down in everything OTHER than the Generic Ballot and Biden Approval for the last few days. nine of the 11 most competitive seats are currently occupied by Democrats. the assumption is that they will lose at least half of them. but my point is that a 1% shift in the balloting in the last month could make the difference. but the trend in the last few days has been very unfriendly to Democrats. of the six things i use to track of them, four of them are falling, and two are holding steady.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2022 21:16:49 GMT -5
i don't normally comment on specific house races, but this one is just too much fun. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/alaska/1/so, Sarah Palin was initially a 5:1 favourite to win this seat. it is now a tossup. if she weren't such an......interesting candidate, i would not bother. but this is the Trumpiest of all Trumpy elections.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2022 16:03:49 GMT -5
the two senate polls continue to converge. the range is now 64-67% D. this is probably due to the declining odds of Walker winning in GA. the GENERIC BALLOT is also converging, which is lowering the odds that Democrats will take the House. Biden's DISAPPROVAL number is within 0.2% of a 2022 LOW. he will probably not be a factor in midterms. finally, the Alaska22 Race (i think this is District 1, but you would have to look it up) is now favoring the Democrat. here is an analysis of all three scenarios on the RCV. spoiler: Palin loses in all three scenarios. www.racetothewh.com/blog/alaskahouse22
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 6, 2022 16:55:54 GMT -5
the two senate polls continue to converge. the range is now 64-67% D. this is probably due to the declining odds of Walker winning in GA. the GENERIC BALLOT is also converging, which is lowering the odds that Democrats will take the House. Biden's DISAPPROVAL number is within 0.2% of a 2022 LOW. he will probably not be a factor in midterms. finally, the Alaska22 Race (i think this is District 1, but you would have to look it up) is now favoring the Democrat. here is an analysis of all three scenarios on the RCV. spoiler: Palin loses in all three scenarios. www.racetothewh.com/blog/alaskahouse22 Alaska only has one Representative so it is an at large seat.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2022 21:22:35 GMT -5
the two senate polls continue to converge. the range is now 64-67% D. this is probably due to the declining odds of Walker winning in GA. the GENERIC BALLOT is also converging, which is lowering the odds that Democrats will take the House. Biden's DISAPPROVAL number is within 0.2% of a 2022 LOW. he will probably not be a factor in midterms. finally, the Alaska22 Race (i think this is District 1, but you would have to look it up) is now favoring the Democrat. here is an analysis of all three scenarios on the RCV. spoiler: Palin loses in all three scenarios. www.racetothewh.com/blog/alaskahouse22 Alaska only has one Representative so it is an at large seat. i couldn't remember what that meant. thanks!
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 7, 2022 19:23:09 GMT -5
the Generic Ballot has begun to slip for Democrats. they are now +0.8%
The Senate Odds are still 2:1 for Democrats, but the range is smaller AGAIN: 64-66%.
538 says the race overall is getting tighter, but i disagree. some of the races are moving in the direction of Democrats, and others in favor of Republicans. overall, there has been little movement in the Senate picture in over two months, and the picture has generally improved for them during that time. they are doing better in Ohio and Georgia, worse in NV and WI, and about the same in PA. in short, barring anything unforseen, i think Democrats will hold on to the Senate, but i think the odds of them picking up 2-3 seats have fallen to about 10%. their odds of picking up 1-2 is quite high, however.
looking at the House, i think the same thing applies. the odds of Democrats winning have not improved in the last couple of months. they still trail the GOP by about a dozen seats. something important will have to happen to move the needle.
the good news for Democrats is that the economy has not faltered. the bad news for Democrats is that inflation has not faltered, either. all of the social issues favor Democrats, but if voters are focused on the economy, they are going to have a tough time. despite the fact that the US economy is performing as well now as any time in the last fifty years by many measures does not account for the sentiment out there, driven by declining real wages by the bottom 50%.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 7, 2022 19:30:56 GMT -5
i just want to throw something in, here. stating the obvious, but this is very tight. it reminds me of 2016, unfortunately.
BECAUSE the polls are quite close (generic ballot, and about 2 dozen house races) the outcome is NOT predictable. as such, i am just going by what the indications are. a Jim Comey could happen and mess everything up- and i would not discount that possibility. i think the US system is highly susceptible to manipulation when things are this close. and i would think that bad actors could have just as much to do with outcome as good ones.
Trump is still a major factor, as well. he could have a very negative impact, or he could have a "rallying" effect.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2022 15:08:48 GMT -5
i just noticed something about the 538 house prediction.
it is predicated LARGELY on the GOP winning the popular vote.
i don't think that is going to happen!
and given that fact, i strongly suspect that the House race is a lot closer than 538 is showing right now. i am not willing to bet ANY money on that, because Nate Silver lives and breathes this stuff, and i am just a spectator.
but if i am right......
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