billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 12, 2022 14:56:46 GMT -5
Counterargument: the law does not disallow having food or water. It only disallows anyone from handing it out to others in line for free. (At least that is my understanding.) You need it, bring it. Note: I don't agree with the law If a person is a quadriplegic, they will need someone to handle their food and water. They would also need to be fed. An extreme example, but I do not believe your argument is good enough. If someone needs to be given the food or water, it would be illegal. If they charge for the food or water it is legal? That is not my understanding of the law. If so, is it legal to charge 5 cents? That would be a way to get around the law ETA: A diabetic could bring food, but wait long enought hat they ran out and risk diabetic shock. Making it illegal to give her food wouldn't contravene the ADA? If you have a disability and show up at the polling place between 9:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., you will not be required to wait in line. Tell a poll officer you want to move to the front of the line. sos.ga.gov/page/voting-assistance-people-disabilities
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 12, 2022 15:13:30 GMT -5
i think the ADA attack on this is genius. also, since when do people need to be made to SUFFER to vote? that is not at all aligned with any sort of standard that we must have on this subject.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 12, 2022 15:22:46 GMT -5
If a person is a quadriplegic, they will need someone to handle their food and water. They would also need to be fed. An extreme example, but I do not believe your argument is good enough. If someone needs to be given the food or water, it would be illegal. If they charge for the food or water it is legal? That is not my understanding of the law. If so, is it legal to charge 5 cents? That would be a way to get around the law ETA: A diabetic could bring food, but wait long enought hat they ran out and risk diabetic shock. Making it illegal to give her food wouldn't contravene the ADA? If you have a disability and show up at the polling place between 9:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., you will not be required to wait in line. Tell a poll officer you want to move to the front of the line. sos.ga.gov/page/voting-assistance-people-disabilities What happens if 100 people claimed to have a disability. Are they allowed to ask if that is true? Might have to hire more poll workers if that happened
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2022 9:17:49 GMT -5
Generic ballot is now showing D+1.3, their best showing versus Republicans since last November. in absolute terms, their rating of 45% is their best level in over a year, and only half a percent below their high for this election cycle. Also, the HOUSE is looking better. this has been discussed in "whispers" on other threads. but here is "shouting out loud". the GOP seat lead is down to less than 20 seats, and the Democrats are closing rapidly: www.racetothewh.com/blog/housemorecompetitive
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2022 9:22:09 GMT -5
Biden's approval numbers have leveled off, and are roughly the same as they were in November (not particularly good).
the bright spot was a new poll by TPP insights this week which shows his approval at 47%. this survey is very highly regarded, so this might be a sign that his numbers will continue to slowly drift upwards, easing pressure on midterm campaigns to "campaign away from Biden".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2022 9:44:20 GMT -5
i have been looking more at Biden's approval numbers. his numbers with young voters and independents are up hugely since the Student Loan Forgiveness thing happened, and a couple of other legislative successes. this is from the right wing IBD (the folks that back the TIPP survey): www.investors.com/politics/biden-approval-rating-gets-big-bounce-from-young-americans/edit: based on what i am reading in that survey, i suspect his approval will be 44-46% at midterms. this is not a very good number. he will be behind everyone other than Reagan and Trump. having said that, he will be 6-9% ahead of his low, which is significant movement. he won't be poisonous at midterms, just not helpful. i see the stock market is taking the inflation news badly. that might also have some minor impact at midterms if it does not ease MORE.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2022 12:19:50 GMT -5
had a closer look at the House race.
i still don't think Democrats will take the House. they are simply too far back with too much headwind. though they ARE gaining ground. they might make it close. maybe close enough to be very disruptive. maybe enough to prevent the loony wing from running the table on committee work.
i am rating this 2:1 GOP takes it. but keep in mind that a few months back, i had it at 4:1. that is KIND OF the problem. if the election were "a few months from now", i would be more ambivalent. as it is, i think the GOP can run out the clock.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Sept 13, 2022 12:38:06 GMT -5
What happens if 100 people claimed to have a disability. Are they allowed to ask if that is true? Might have to hire more poll workers if that happened I take it you don't live where there is voter supression? They do that here having it in places that are not ADA acceptable. Yeah they know they might get challenged but all they need to do is hang on long enough that enough people just give up and go home they win. And if they DO win the complaint they will close the non-compliant site BUT the new ADA site will be somewhere where those people cannot access it without viable transportation. Take the bus? They design the polls to be open when the buses aren't running or put it in a location where it's not easy to get to from the bus stop. Omaha and CB are REAL creative with making sure certain people can't vote. Here they stopped allowing polls to be open on Sunday because they know for the African American community here voting on Sunday is a very popular time. The claim is Sunday is a day of worship/a weekend and the poll workers deserve a day off. Having it in an inaccessible location for most people? BUDGET CUTS! We had no choice but to put it here! They know they are wrong and what they are doing is awful. They also know human nature and that most people are not going to be bothered to fight for their right to vote they are just going to go home. Movements take time to achieve. They know whatever they put in place for this election will have worked long before the challenge to it makes it through the court system. By the time the next election happens they'll have moved the goal post again requiring another lawsuit. Until something happens on a federal level to protect voting rights it's an endless game of whack a mole.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2022 12:40:45 GMT -5
What happens if 100 people claimed to have a disability. Are they allowed to ask if that is true? Might have to hire more poll workers if that happened I take it you don't live where there is voter supression? They do that here having it in places that are not ADA acceptable. Yeah they know they might get challenged but all they need to do is hang on long enough that enough people just give up and go home they win. And if they DO win the complaint they will close the non-compliant site BUT the new ADA site will be somewhere where those people cannot access it without viable transportation. Take the bus? They design the polls to be open when the buses aren't running or put it in a location where it's not easy to get to from the bus stop. Omaha and CB are REAL creative with making sure certain people can't vote. Here they stopped allowing polls to be open on Sunday because they know for the African American vote Sunday is a very popular time. The claim is Sunday is a day of worship/a weekend and the poll workers deserve a day off. if they really believed that, they would have a state voting day, which would be a paid holiday. right? right? right.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 13, 2022 13:28:11 GMT -5
I take it you don't live where there is voter supression? They do that here having it in places that are not ADA acceptable. Yeah they know they might get challenged but all they need to do is hang on long enough that enough people just give up and go home they win. And if they DO win the complaint they will close the non-compliant site BUT the new ADA site will be somewhere where those people cannot access it without viable transportation. Take the bus? They design the polls to be open when the buses aren't running or put it in a location where it's not easy to get to from the bus stop. Omaha and CB are REAL creative with making sure certain people can't vote. Here they stopped allowing polls to be open on Sunday because they know for the African American vote Sunday is a very popular time. The claim is Sunday is a day of worship/a weekend and the poll workers deserve a day off. if they really believed that, they would have a state voting day, which would be a paid holiday. right? right? right. Yes please with sugar on it!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 13, 2022 13:36:49 GMT -5
What happens if 100 people claimed to have a disability. Are they allowed to ask if that is true? Might have to hire more poll workers if that happened I take it you don't live where there is voter supression? They do that here having it in places that are not ADA acceptable. Yeah they know they might get challenged but all they need to do is hang on long enough that enough people just give up and go home they win. And if they DO win the complaint they will close the non-compliant site BUT the new ADA site will be somewhere where those people cannot access it without viable transportation. Take the bus? They design the polls to be open when the buses aren't running or put it in a location where it's not easy to get to from the bus stop. Omaha and CB are REAL creative with making sure certain people can't vote. Here they stopped allowing polls to be open on Sunday because they know for the African American community here voting on Sunday is a very popular time. The claim is Sunday is a day of worship/a weekend and the poll workers deserve a day off. Having it in an inaccessible location for most people? BUDGET CUTS! We had no choice but to put it here! They know they are wrong and what they are doing is awful. They also know human nature and that most people are not going to be bothered to fight for their right to vote they are just going to go home. Movements take time to achieve. They know whatever they put in place for this election will have worked long before the challenge to it makes it through the court system. By the time the next election happens they'll have moved the goal post again requiring another lawsuit. Until something happens on a federal level to protect voting rights it's an endless game of whack a mole. There are benefits to living in high tax, liberal hell holes. Unfortunate that that is reality. But this is something that should be taken up, and every violation prosecuted. It is hard work, but they needs to be resistance to this, and federal court needs to be where this happens
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Sept 13, 2022 13:45:23 GMT -5
I take it you don't live where there is voter supression? They do that here having it in places that are not ADA acceptable. Yeah they know they might get challenged but all they need to do is hang on long enough that enough people just give up and go home they win. And if they DO win the complaint they will close the non-compliant site BUT the new ADA site will be somewhere where those people cannot access it without viable transportation. Take the bus? They design the polls to be open when the buses aren't running or put it in a location where it's not easy to get to from the bus stop. Omaha and CB are REAL creative with making sure certain people can't vote. Here they stopped allowing polls to be open on Sunday because they know for the African American community here voting on Sunday is a very popular time. The claim is Sunday is a day of worship/a weekend and the poll workers deserve a day off. Having it in an inaccessible location for most people? BUDGET CUTS! We had no choice but to put it here! They know they are wrong and what they are doing is awful. They also know human nature and that most people are not going to be bothered to fight for their right to vote they are just going to go home. Movements take time to achieve. They know whatever they put in place for this election will have worked long before the challenge to it makes it through the court system. By the time the next election happens they'll have moved the goal post again requiring another lawsuit. Until something happens on a federal level to protect voting rights it's an endless game of whack a mole. There are benefits to living in high tax, liberal hell holes. Unfortunate that that is reality. But this is something that should be taken up, and every violation prosecuted. It is hard work, but they needs to be resistance to this, and federal court needs to be where this happens All the challenges wend their way through the courts. The problem is the Republicans in charge are smart enough to know how to comply while still making it damn near impossible to vote. And currently they know that on a federal level their party will do everything it can to ensure it stays that way. Democrats need to nut up. Put Mauchin in a closet somewhere and get shit done.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 13, 2022 13:55:15 GMT -5
There are benefits to living in high tax, liberal hell holes. Unfortunate that that is reality. But this is something that should be taken up, and every violation prosecuted. It is hard work, but they needs to be resistance to this, and federal court needs to be where this happens All the challenges wend their way through the courts. The problem is the Republicans in charge are smart enough to know how to comply while still making it damn near impossible to vote. And currently they know that on a federal level their party will do everything it can to ensure it stays that way. Democrats need to nut up. Put Mauchin in a closet somewhere and get shit done. It s clear that it will be difficult. It will take time. Might as well start now as we may not have a country left if we wait
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Sept 13, 2022 14:32:47 GMT -5
All the challenges wend their way through the courts. The problem is the Republicans in charge are smart enough to know how to comply while still making it damn near impossible to vote. And currently they know that on a federal level their party will do everything it can to ensure it stays that way. Democrats need to nut up. Put Mauchin in a closet somewhere and get shit done. It s clear that it will be difficult. It will take time. Might as well start now as we may not have a country left if we wait Oh I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying Republicans are playing the long con. Democrats at the federal level need to stop clutching their pearls and get equally dirty. Because fighting this on a state to state, county to county, city to city level is taking too long. It's a fight that needs to be fought but I am concerned if the Republicans can keep obstructing the way they are we're never going to win the war. We need Democrats at the federal level to grow balls and actually protect democracy. The time for bi-partisanship is over IMHO when the other party has very clearly shown it's only goal is ultimate power.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2022 14:34:17 GMT -5
All the challenges wend their way through the courts. The problem is the Republicans in charge are smart enough to know how to comply while still making it damn near impossible to vote. And currently they know that on a federal level their party will do everything it can to ensure it stays that way. Democrats need to nut up. Put Mauchin in a closet somewhere and get shit done. It s clear that it will be difficult. It will take time. Might as well start now as we may not have a country left if we wait this is PRECISELY it. the GOP has decided that the way forward is not through policy, but through fascism. they had a partial victory in 2016. if they get another one in 2024, they might do so much damage that we are basically back to 1859- or to use a more recent example, 1959 South Africa.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 14, 2022 5:37:18 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 14, 2022 6:35:50 GMT -5
It s clear that it will be difficult. It will take time. Might as well start now as we may not have a country left if we wait this is PRECISELY it. the GOP has decided that the way forward is not through policy, but through fascism. they had a partial victory in 2016. if they get another one in 2024, they might do so much damage that we are basically back to 1859- or to use a more recent example, 1959 South Africa. Worse yet our turn to the far right encourages other far right fascist leaning parties. Sweden, for one, is struggling with one now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2022 8:49:12 GMT -5
yeah. it makes me think twice about how important America is as a MODEL OF BEHAVIOR for the rest of the world, and how horrendous and dangerous what Trump has done to America IS for the world.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 14, 2022 9:19:55 GMT -5
yeah. it makes me think twice about how important America is as a MODEL OF BEHAVIOR for the rest of the world, and how horrendous and dangerous what Trump has done to America IS for the world. I also think twice when it is suggested that things happen elsewhere because of the United States. We certainly directly do things in other countries but how much is American egocentric thinking about our indirect influence?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2022 9:23:39 GMT -5
i always think twice before using the word "because". coincidence doesn't equate to causality.
edit: i used to think that how America behaved didn't matter. then i witnessed what happened after 911, and the changes that took place here. it had a remarkable influence elsewhere.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2022 16:14:00 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 14, 2022 16:18:26 GMT -5
I see you don't know Senator Graham, or most of the current republican lawmakers.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2022 16:22:34 GMT -5
I see you don't know Senator Graham, or most of the current republican lawmakers. he is a craven political animal. surely he knows that advertising this idea costs the party roughly 10% in the polls. he must know that. is he calculating that this will bring out red meat conservatives? because it will certainly drive out Team Blue. oh, and it will lose, because Biden will veto this crap, and the House will not have the votes to overturn the veto. this HAS to be wallpaper. but for which party?
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 14, 2022 17:03:05 GMT -5
I see you don't know Senator Graham, or most of the current republican lawmakers. he is a craven political animal. surely he knows that advertising this idea costs the party roughly 10% in the polls. he must know that. is he calculating that this will bring out red meat conservatives? because it will certainly drive out Team Blue. oh, and it will lose, because Biden will veto this crap, and the House will not have the votes to overturn the veto. this HAS to be wallpaper. but for which party? They have no coherent strategy except to do whatever it is to stay in power lindsay thinks he is smart, so he thinks this will work? They may think all they need is their base if they suppress the vote enough? Trying to change the conversation from Trump? Trying to give other republicans cover and at least get the conversation away from the crazy's trying to ban it with no exceptions/ He had spectacular timing, doing this on the day that the inflation report came out, and blunting the bad news. I really think that Trump has so ruined the party structure that they no longer have any sort of ideas, and do not think about anything before they say it. Unless he wants to have the republican party in disarray so they will finally Trump? I suspect that is wishful thinking on my part.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 15, 2022 17:35:22 GMT -5
updates: RTTWH = 65% chance of Democratic win in Senate (+1%) 538 = 70% chance of Democratic win in Senate (+2%) Generic Ballot: D+1.4% (+.4%) Biden Approval: -0.7% 538 House Forecast: GOP 72% (-2%)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 16, 2022 9:12:29 GMT -5
i wanted to make a quick comment about the Generic Ballot.
i really like the Generic Ballot as a predictor of election outcomes, because it shows "fundamental party bias" in a way that polling does NOT. fundamental polling bias is sometimes called "voter sentiment", so if that is a term more familiar to you, use that.
this is a very SLOW MOVING parameter. so, for example, a 10 point gap in GB is pretty much a disaster for a party, even a YEAR in advance. in July of 2021, Democrats were +5 in the Generic Ballot. that was a good number, but not insurmountable. and indeed, they lost all of it, by tirelessly "persecuting" Trump and by ticking off a few campaign favourites of Biden for legislation that were not terribly popular. it took FOUR MONTHS for the GOP to erase that margin (which is really fast for the GB). that trend continued for another SIX months, when the red wave crested in May of this year. with the GOP +2.5%. at this point, the House was totally out of reach of Democrats, and the Senate was in jeopardy. the ten month trend then reversed pretty much as the J6 commission started producing some results AND the SCOTUS overturned Roe. since that time, 2% of voters have moved from GOP to Democrat, and the result is that the GOP, five months later, is -1.5% (this is more of an average rate of movement of the GB- less than 1%/month). if the trend holds, they will be down 3% on election day, and the House will be too close to call (only 10 tossup races separate the two parties right now).
EVEN IF the GOP reverses things, they are VERY UNLIKELY to flip the Senate at this point. so, our range of outcomes is CURRENTLY uncertain in the House, and more than likely that Dems will split the Senate 50-50 again, or gain seats.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 16, 2022 9:15:43 GMT -5
oh, forgot to add this: the reason (that the GB favors Democrats at this juncture) is that there is no longer enough TIME to flip the Generic Ballot. the likely range of outcomes is D+0 to D+3 on election day. that bodes well for statewide races like Senate and Governor, but due to redistricting bias, Democrats need +3% (appx) to take the House.
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 16, 2022 14:25:36 GMT -5
So I guess Walker has agreed to one debate with Warner in GA. I have the perfect question for him.
"Mr Walker the job of a US Senator does entail reading and comprehension so in what grade did they just start passing you because you played football?"
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 17, 2022 6:30:38 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 19, 2022 18:11:10 GMT -5
Herschel Walker’s bizarre move to lower expectations “I’m this country boy. I’m not that smart. And he’s that preacher. He’s a smart man, wears these nice suits,” Walker said of Warnock at a recent press conference filmed by the Savannah Morning News. “So he’s going to show up and embarrass me at the debate October the 14th, and I’m just waiting. I’ll show up and I’m going to do my best.” This man might become one of one hundred United States Senators. Is he really, truly one of the two best the citizens of Georgia can toss in as members of that body? Come on people, we deserve better.
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