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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2022 6:25:34 GMT -5
...in other news, the GOP's chance of winning the HOUSE has slipped 8% in the last (18) days. but they still are favored 2:1 to win.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2022 15:11:19 GMT -5
the odds of winning the House are down to 64% for the GOP
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2022 15:30:29 GMT -5
Biden approval numbers are now ahead of Clinton, Reagan, Truman and Trump at this point in their presidencies.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 1, 2022 17:29:24 GMT -5
...in other news, the GOP's chance of winning the HOUSE has slipped 8% in the last (18) days. but they still are favored 2:1 to win. Thank you Trump and the SCOTUS!!
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 2, 2022 7:02:50 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 2, 2022 8:41:01 GMT -5
right now, the chances of Democrats winning the House are about the same as the odds of them losing the Senate. but the trend for the GOP is really bad. at this rate, the House will be a tossup WELL BEFORE MIDTERMS.
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 4, 2022 7:15:02 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 4, 2022 8:18:20 GMT -5
the generic ballot survey tends to UNDER-REPRESENT actual voting for Democrats by about 2-3%. the generic ballot AVERAGE currently shows D+1. that means that Democrats are +3-4 currently. HOWEVER..... because of redistricting, the bias in congress is +3-4R. but you know what that means. we are currently basically about even in the House IN THE POLLS. i don't know how the House will turn out. but it is pretty positive for the Senate.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 4, 2022 10:56:18 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 4, 2022 12:00:28 GMT -5
most jobs created in one term** by any president since WW2.
**note: his first term is not over, of course. he had 6.6M in his first year, and we are at 2M this year. he will most certainly pass 10M in his first two years, which is about what Clinton got in (4). so, yeah, i am assuming he won't LOSE jobs in the last two years, but that is not much of an assumption.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 6, 2022 10:12:32 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 7, 2022 8:55:49 GMT -5
Dr Oz came out against Trump yesterday, saying he would have certification Biden’s victory in 2020.
What an idiot. His biggest selling point against Fetterman was that Trump liked him.
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 7, 2022 17:46:09 GMT -5
Dr Oz came out against Trump yesterday, saying he would have certification Biden’s victory in 2020. What an idiot. His biggest selling point against Fetterman was that Trump liked him. Maybe Oz decided this isn’t worth it. Every day there seems to be some story that embarrasses him - maybe he can’t take it anymore. That seems unlikely. More likely he thinks he is smarter or more likeable than he is and thought he knew the best move to do next.
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 8, 2022 10:02:12 GMT -5
Midterms and beyond. Michigan Republican squirms when reporter confronts her about telling poll workers to 'act like spies'In a clip shown on CNN on Thursday morning, the chair of the Wayne County Michigan Republican Party was forced to scramble after being confronted by the network's Drew Griffin over her previous advice to poll workers to "act like spies." Republicans in the state are under fire after CNN obtained video of officials giving tips on breaking the law on election day, and that came back to haunt Cheryl Costantino, who was featured in the video that also contained appearances by 2020 election deniers. In the video, when asked about cell phones, Costantino was seen telling workers, "I would say maybe just hide it or something, and maybe hide a small pad and a small pen or something like that because you need to take accurate notes," before responding to concerns about illegality by advising, "That's why you got to do it secretly." Confronted by CNN's Griffin, the GOP leader tried to make light of her training "spy" comments aimed at interfering with voters casting their ballots. Asked about her comments, she paused, before offering, "Well, to kind of reframe it and make it more fun and interesting." She added, "As I said just, you know, instead of causing a bunch of scenes and things like that, just write it down, just kind of be like spies and let me, you know, let me know what's going on." Michigan Republican squirms when reporter confronts her about telling poll workers to 'act like spies'
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 9, 2022 11:29:27 GMT -5
Are you sure you don't mean WI not MN? MN doesn't have a Senate election this year. WI might finally get rid of Bat Shit Crazy Ron Johnson! It's basically a dead heat right now with Mandela Barnes closing the gap every week.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2022 15:29:50 GMT -5
Are you sure you don't mean WI not MN? MN doesn't have a Senate election this year. WI might finally get rid of Bat Shit Crazy Ron Johnson! It's basically a dead heat right now with Mandela Barnes closing the gap every week. i think i did mean WI, but i don't have time to look it up right now.
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 9, 2022 15:59:49 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2022 16:25:19 GMT -5
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 9, 2022 16:33:13 GMT -5
I really don't understand what is going on in GA? How is Walker even close? Every time he opens his mouth it is glaringly clear what an incompetent unqualified buffoon he is. Did you hear his latest comment about the part of the infrastructure package they passed including money to plant new trees?
In his infinite wisdom he said "Don't we have enough trees around here?"
And of course he is dodging debates because OMG could you imagine the answers? It would be like an SNL skit.
I also can't understand why Stacy Abrahms is polling so far behind this time around after coming so close last time.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2022 16:53:33 GMT -5
I really don't understand what is going on in GA? How is Walker even close? Every time he opens his mouth it is glaringly clear what an incompetent unqualified buffoon he is. Did you hear his latest comment about the part of the infrastructure package they passed including money to plant new trees?
In his infinite wisdom he said "Don't we have enough trees around here?"
And of course he is dodging debates because OMG could you imagine the answers? It would be like an SNL skit.
I also can't understand why Stacy Abrahms is polling so far behind this time around after coming so close last time. i think there are two things going on. first of all, Walker is up to 70% of the White vote in GA, now. that is a big number. second, voter suppression.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 11, 2022 13:44:10 GMT -5
I really don't understand what is going on in GA? How is Walker even close? Every time he opens his mouth it is glaringly clear what an incompetent unqualified buffoon he is. Did you hear his latest comment about the part of the infrastructure package they passed including money to plant new trees?
In his infinite wisdom he said "Don't we have enough trees around here?"
And of course he is dodging debates because OMG could you imagine the answers? It would be like an SNL skit.
I also can't understand why Stacy Abrahms is polling so far behind this time around after coming so close last time. I live in a rural area of GA, the same area that elected Marge Taylor Greene, so that kind of explains why Walker is out polling the Dem. And DJ is right, Abrams lost the governor’s race last time due to voter suppression tactics like the state shutting down polling areas right before the election in the mostly minority areas for supposedly not being compliant with the disability act - except that two of the three polling locations in our almost all white county are not at all in compliance with the ADA and neither of them got shut down. People in Atlanta, which has a big minority population, can stand in line for many hours to be able to vote (I’ve never had to wait more than 10 minutes). After the Trump Big Lie GA passed more laws to suppress the vote. One of them makes it a crime to hand out free water or food to people standing in line waiting to vote (remember Atlanta?)
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Post by Opti on Sept 11, 2022 14:00:01 GMT -5
I really don't understand what is going on in GA? How is Walker even close? Every time he opens his mouth it is glaringly clear what an incompetent unqualified buffoon he is. Did you hear his latest comment about the part of the infrastructure package they passed including money to plant new trees?
In his infinite wisdom he said "Don't we have enough trees around here?"
And of course he is dodging debates because OMG could you imagine the answers? It would be like an SNL skit.
I also can't understand why Stacy Abrahms is polling so far behind this time around after coming so close last time. I live in a rural area of GA, the same area that elected Marge Taylor Greene, so that kind of explains why Walker is out polling the Dem. And DJ is right, Abrams lost the governor’s race last time due to voter suppression tactics like the state shutting down polling areas right before the election in the mostly minority areas for supposedly not being compliant with the disability act - except that two of the three polling locations in our almost all white county are not at all in compliance with the ADA and neither of them got shut down. People in Atlanta, which has a big minority population, can stand in line for many hours to be able to vote (I’ve never had to wait more than 10 minutes). After the Trump Big Lie GA passed more laws to suppress the vote. One of them makes it a crime to hand out free water or food to people standing in line waiting to vote (remember Atlanta?) Voter suppression of minority areas is criminal IMO. Yet it can only be fixed locally. The free water or food thing is so horribly petty. And as an American it affects me in federal elections because my party and preference is against voter suppression.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 12, 2022 8:58:26 GMT -5
Dr Oz came out against Trump yesterday, saying he would have certification Biden’s victory in 2020. What an idiot. His biggest selling point against Fetterman was that Trump liked him. winning the rational vote pales in comparison to losing the crazy vote. but i commend him.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 12, 2022 8:59:33 GMT -5
I live in a rural area of GA, the same area that elected Marge Taylor Greene, so that kind of explains why Walker is out polling the Dem. And DJ is right, Abrams lost the governor’s race last time due to voter suppression tactics like the state shutting down polling areas right before the election in the mostly minority areas for supposedly not being compliant with the disability act - except that two of the three polling locations in our almost all white county are not at all in compliance with the ADA and neither of them got shut down. People in Atlanta, which has a big minority population, can stand in line for many hours to be able to vote (I’ve never had to wait more than 10 minutes). After the Trump Big Lie GA passed more laws to suppress the vote. One of them makes it a crime to hand out free water or food to people standing in line waiting to vote (remember Atlanta?) Voter suppression of minority areas is criminal IMO. Yet it can only be fixed locally. The free water or food thing is so horribly petty. And as an American it affects me in federal elections because my party and preference is against voter suppression. they can probably defeat it by setting up a central meeting place for food and water. the law only says you can't hand it out in line.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 12, 2022 9:20:40 GMT -5
I agree that it is horrible that people who are standing in line for hours for their turn to vote can not be given food nor water to sustain them while they make that wait in line.
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 12, 2022 9:27:34 GMT -5
Voter suppression of minority areas is criminal IMO. Yet it can only be fixed locally. The free water or food thing is so horribly petty. And as an American it affects me in federal elections because my party and preference is against voter suppression. they can probably defeat it by setting up a central meeting place for food and water. the law only says you can't hand it out in line. The problem is when they close a lot of polling places and then people have to stand and wait in a line for a long time. If they need to leave the line for any reason - water, low blood sugar / need a snack, toilet, etc they may be discouraged from getting back in line and just give up and go home. Designing a system that makes voting difficult, uncomfortable and costly for individuals decreases voter turn out in that area. They chip away at anything outside groups do to alleviate those hurdles. Eliminating early voting, mail-in votes, or drop boxes for mail-in ballots. Limit the number of polling locations. Design lines to be in the elements and near a very busy street with no seating or even a wall to lean against. You have to show ID. Don’t pressure employers to follow laws giving people time off. Poll workers don’t speak the primary language of the neighborhood. Someone got arrested for driving a van around taking people to the polls in a black neighborhood. You can’t get food or water while waiting in that line. I am sure there are work around for all the problems listed, but, they famously only needed to prevent 11,780 (more) voters of a certain party to give up on the process to win - out of 5,000,000 total voters. So, the central distribution point for food or water may be fine for most, but if doesn’t work in one polling place - maybe there is an overzealous police officer who determines the service is inappropriate, or they can’t get any space to set up that is both far enough away and close enough to be effective, etc, they can discourage a few thousand voters over the course of the day. Maybe 800,000 people are in for the work-around, but 6,000 give up - you are halfway to getting a different result for President and possibly already changed several local or statewide position results, leaving the power in the hands of the suppressors.
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 12, 2022 9:39:03 GMT -5
I think they have a case that this is against the ADA. Many people have disabilities and conditions like diabetes, which makes being in line without food and water dangerous. Would be an interesting argument.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 12, 2022 9:39:13 GMT -5
yeah, unless they start actually running on POLICIES, these tactics will stop working, simply because they don't have the numbers, anymore.
my problem with that idea is that i am not sure what kind of a Democracy we will have left if we wait that long.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 12, 2022 12:56:39 GMT -5
I think they have a case that this is against the ADA. Many people have disabilities and conditions like diabetes, which makes being in line without food and water dangerous. Would be an interesting argument. Counterargument: the law does not disallow having food or water. It only disallows anyone from handing it out to others in line for free. (At least that is my understanding.) You need it, bring it. Note: I don't agree with the law
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 12, 2022 13:42:22 GMT -5
I think they have a case that this is against the ADA. Many people have disabilities and conditions like diabetes, which makes being in line without food and water dangerous. Would be an interesting argument. Counterargument: the law does not disallow having food or water. It only disallows anyone from handing it out to others in line for free. (At least that is my understanding.) You need it, bring it. Note: I don't agree with the law If a person is a quadriplegic, they will need someone to handle their food and water. They would also need to be fed. An extreme example, but I do not believe your argument is good enough. If someone needs to be given the food or water, it would be illegal. If they charge for the food or water it is legal? That is not my understanding of the law. If so, is it legal to charge 5 cents? That would be a way to get around the law ETA: A diabetic could bring food, but wait long enought hat they ran out and risk diabetic shock. Making it illegal to give her food wouldn't contravene the ADA?
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