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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2022 11:13:18 GMT -5
LOL.
well, given that she voted Dem this week, and NO Republicans did......
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 14, 2022 22:47:51 GMT -5
no change at all here in the last few weeks except one minor one.
Democrats now lead the generic ballot poll by 0.4% that is really a "nothing margin" but keep in mind that this survey tends to underestimate Democratic vote by 1-2%. even adding that in, the GOP has about a 3% advantage because of redistricting, so the Democrats need to get up to +1 or +2% in the generic ballot to have a chance of retaining the House. i doubt that will happen, but i give it about a 25% chance of happening, now.
there are 29 seats that have too little polling to speculate what might happen, and the races are in contested areas. the Dems have to win 23 of them, which is roughly 80%, and this doesn't seem like that kind of year for them, but who actually knows?
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Post by tbop77 on Aug 16, 2022 6:39:18 GMT -5
Democrats are on the verge of a huge legislative accomplishment, to significantly reduce energy and health care costs and tax inequality. This moment reminds us of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the historic 1934 midterm elections. There, the Democrats saw electoral gains instead of losses — generally a rare occurrence for the party in power. We, the descendants of FDR and his New Deal cabinet, believe FDR and Democrats in Congress saw gains in 1934 in large part because they weren’t afraid to propose and pass ambitious pieces of legislation known collectively as the New Deal. In 1933 and 1934, FDR and the 73rd Congress enacted a slew of historic legislation that stabilized the economy by providing jobs for millions of unemployed, rescued the banking system, held major corporations and the wealthiest more accountable, and invested heavily in basic infrastructure and the sustainability of our natural resources. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/could-democrats-bold-legislation-bring-a-repeat-of-the-1934-midterms/ar-AA10GPzz?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=77e4279bbabc455cbc288f8e1db9c077Ignore Trump and run on what has been accomplished in the last 2 years. Let the Republicans deal with his antics.
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Post by NastyWoman on Aug 16, 2022 12:16:56 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 16, 2022 15:54:03 GMT -5
Anyone following Alaska? They have an interesting election today.
Here are the details if you don't know them. There are multiple office primaries in which the top four will advance to November. Shouldn't be any real surprises there. Perhaps vote totals will be somewhat significant. But there is another very short term office to be won. The lone Representative for Alaska resigned or died or something so they are electing someone to fill the seat until January. Previously they held a top four primary in which Sarah Palin advanced. Now the four are three because one dropped out and endorsed a not Palin candidate. What makes it very interesting is they will use ranked choice voting. I see Palin getting a lot of first choice votes but if she doesn't get 50% the first go round, I am thinking she will be the second choice of a very small percentage of voters. Can you imagine the howl we will hear from Trump if his favorite gets low to mid 40's first round and then not enough reallocated votes to win. And it would certainly make November with close to the same cast of characters running that much more interesting.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 16, 2022 16:41:39 GMT -5
yeah. if they think they hate normal WTA elections, they are going to LOATHE RCV.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 17, 2022 8:55:57 GMT -5
Alaska results has Palin at 32.1%, second behind Democrat Pektola's 37.8%, and ahead of Republican Begich at 28.6%. The counting of already made second choice votes by Begich voters isn't scheduled to happen until August 31 link. Meanwhile, the three will be campaigning for the November election. Interesting.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 19, 2022 10:31:02 GMT -5
GOP has abandoned Oz in PA. Fetterman will win that senate seat.
Never use French in campaign ads. It’s a law.
Mitch McConnell admits Republicans may not win back the Senate due to ‘candidate quality.’
Yes, and who forced those candidates onto the GOP?
For the third consecutive time Trump may cause Georgia to get a Dem Senator. MAGA!
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Post by tbop77 on Aug 20, 2022 7:49:01 GMT -5
GOP has abandoned Oz in PA. Fetterman will win that senate seat. Never use French in campaign ads. It’s a law. Mitch McConnell admits Republicans may not win back the Senate due to ‘candidate quality.’ Yes, and who forced those candidates onto the GOP? For the third consecutive time Trump may cause Georgia to get a Dem Senator. MAGA! They had their chance to get rid of Trump when they all knew he incited the riot. Their speeches afterword is proof they all knew. I hope Mitch and all the GOP who neglected to do what is right gets their gut full of Trump. "candidate quality", huh? I don't see much quality in the GOP to start with.
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Post by tbop77 on Aug 20, 2022 8:01:07 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 20, 2022 16:19:38 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 20, 2022 16:40:25 GMT -5
Democrats odds of keeping the Senate are up to 59%: their best odds of this election cycle. www.racetothewh.com/senate/2022there are only two tossups left at this point: NV and OH. Democrats are leading by 4% or more in each of the following states: NH, GA, PA, and AZ. so, the GOP has to win both of the tossup states (they are currently losing ground in both), and one of the four states listed above in bold. the current odds favourite is that the GOP will lose one seat, and Dems will prevail with 51. since i made this post three weeks ago, three things have happened: 1) time has passed with little change, meaning the odds of Democrats keeping the Senate are now 63%. the odds have been rising about 1%/week 2) the odds of winning Ohio have slipped, so the state is now Tilt R. the odds of winning Wisconsin have also slipped, so it is now a Tossup. in the latter case, Mandela Barnes is on a roll. his polling is way up since the primary. 3) the Republican in Nevada is running a good race, so that contest is even closer than before. North Carolina is also an interesting race. if anyone is from that state, perhaps they can comment here on what is going on there. finally, the Generic Ballot survey is showing almost +1% for Dems now, which is a VERY good number, and Biden's approval is up 3% in recent weeks. all in all, this has been a very good month for Democrats.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 20, 2022 17:22:54 GMT -5
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Post by Mardi Gras Audrey on Aug 20, 2022 23:36:02 GMT -5
How is Hershel walker anywhere near Warnock? The guy seems like drama (doesn’t he have dissociative identity disorder) and a messy family life (extra kids with different women all while talking down about absent fathers plus som domestic violence allegations?)? I don’t know much about warnock but everything I’ve seen looks classy and drama free. Who would ever vote for walker over him? Even if you weren’t a Dem, how could u seriously vote for someone as bad as walker? Anyone in Georgia that can weigh in?
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 21, 2022 8:47:18 GMT -5
How is Hershel walker anywhere near Warnock? The guy seems like drama (doesn’t he have dissociative identity disorder) and a messy family life (extra kids with different women all while talking down about absent fathers plus som domestic violence allegations?)? I don’t know much about warnock but everything I’ve seen looks classy and drama free. Who would ever vote for walker over him? Even if you weren’t a Dem, how could u seriously vote for someone as bad as walker? Anyone in Georgia that can weigh in? I’m from Georgia. Yes, Warnock is very articulate, an impressive speaker, and experienced in community organization. He’s been in office a couple years now, and the law he’s been trying to get passed is a cap on insulin costs. Trump picks candidates based on how good they are at kissing his ass, and how famous they are, because he believes voters will vote for someone they’ve seen on TV (which is why they voted for him). Hershel Walker, back in the day, was an exceptional football player and very well known in Georgia. That was enough to get Trump’s backing. Hershel has been out of the lime light for a while, though, and Trump didn’t vet him at all, so negatives started coming out of the woodwork. His out of wedlock kids. His admission that he has mental health issues and maybe multiple personalities. His anger issues. HIs physical violence against his wife. Despite that, last I checked, he’s still neck and neck with Warnock, because in the red parts of Georgia a vote for a Dem is a vote for a murderer (because of the abortion issue). Warnock will have to hope that enough GOPers decide they can’t vote for Walker or Warnock either one and stay home on voting day.
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Mardi Gras Audrey
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Post by Mardi Gras Audrey on Aug 21, 2022 10:08:07 GMT -5
I’m from Georgia. Yes, Warnock is very articulate, an impressive speaker, and experienced in community organization. He’s been in office a couple years now, and the law he’s been trying to get passed is a cap on insulin costs. Trump picks candidates based on how good they are at kissing his ass, and how famous they are, because he believes voters will vote for someone they’ve seen on TV (which is why they voted for him). Hershel Walker, back in the day, was an exceptional football player and very well known in Georgia. That was enough to get Trump’s backing. Hershel has been out of the lime light for a while, though, and Trump didn’t vet him at all, so negatives started coming out of the woodwork. His out of wedlock kids. His admission that he has mental health issues and maybe multiple personalities. His anger issues. HIs physical violence against his wife. Despite that, last I checked, he’s still neck and neck with Warnock, because in the red parts of Georgia a vote for a Dem is a vote for a murderer (because of the abortion issue). Warnock will have to hope that enough GOPers decide they can’t vote for Walker or Warnock either one and stay home on voting day. Thank you for the insight… is abortion really the most important issue down there? Are most people thinking about it that often where it would be the number one issue? How do these people know walker is “pro-life”? Just because trump said so? (I’m guessing during his time as a football player that issue wouldn’t have come up in interviews much?) I guess I just can’t even picture how it must be to have that as the thing you worry about on a daily basis (before Roe was overturned, to stop abortions…. Not fighting for women’s right to choose. I understand why fighting for a woman’s right to choose would be a number one issue, as it is for me since it is about autonomy snd that is important to me). Aren’t a lot of these people the ones that hated Obama since he was black? How would walker be better than Obama (or Warnock)?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2022 10:22:41 GMT -5
Warnock has a solid lead, though it is single digits. it is hard for a Democrat to win in GA right now. so he has a heavy headwind. however, i am reasonably confident he will win.
he beat Loeffler by 2% i suspect he will beat Walker by more than that.
DISCLAIMER: i just pointed out that Nate Silver thinks this race is too close to call. i don't know what to make of that, but it DOES worry me.
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Post by tallguy on Aug 21, 2022 10:29:53 GMT -5
How is Hershel walker anywhere near Warnock? The guy seems like drama (doesn’t he have dissociative identity disorder) and a messy family life (extra kids with different women all while talking down about absent fathers plus som domestic violence allegations?)? I don’t know much about warnock but everything I’ve seen looks classy and drama free. Who would ever vote for walker over him? Even if you weren’t a Dem, how could u seriously vote for someone as bad as walker? Anyone in Georgia that can weigh in? I’m from Georgia. Yes, Warnock is very articulate, an impressive speaker, and experienced in community organization. He’s been in office a couple years now, and the law he’s been trying to get passed is a cap on insulin costs. Trump picks candidates based on how good they are at kissing his ass, and how famous they are, because he believes voters will vote for someone they’ve seen on TV (which is why they voted for him). Hershel Walker, back in the day, was an exceptional football player and very well known in Georgia. That was enough to get Trump’s backing. Hershel has been out of the lime light for a while, though, and Trump didn’t vet him at all, so negatives started coming out of the woodwork. His out of wedlock kids. His admission that he has mental health issues and maybe multiple personalities. His anger issues. HIs physical violence against his wife. Despite that, last I checked, he’s still neck and neck with Warnock, because in the red parts of Georgia a vote for a Dem is a vote for a murderer (because of the abortion issue). Warnock will have to hope that enough GOPers decide they can’t vote for Walker or Warnock either one and stay home on voting day. While that is true, there is another connection between Trump himself and Walker. Back in the '80s, Donald Trump desperately wanted to buy an NFL team, but the league's owners didn't want him. They didn't think he was the right type of person to join their little club. The USFL had just begun operations, and was battling with the NFL for players. Walker had signed a contract with the New Jersey Generals. After their first season of play, Donald Trump bought the Generals with Walker as their best player. His idea was to use the USFL as a way to force a merger with the NFL and get into the league that way. His ego and arrogance of course failed, and he ended up destroying the USFL after owning the team for two years. Walker was, however, the best asset he had in his misguided effort to benefit himself with an NFL franchise. Their history thus goes back forty years.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2022 10:46:15 GMT -5
it's more than that, of course. Walker's lifestyle is a lot like Trumps. they are both basically bastards. so, they belong to the bastards club.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2022 10:54:10 GMT -5
i should probably also mention that Silver gave Walker a 60% chance of winning as recently as June 1st. so, he is "evolving" in his opinion of that race.
he is also showing that neither candidate will get 50%, which will force a runoff. as i have stated before, i don't think this will happen. i expect Warnock to top 50%. but a lot will depend on getting out the vote for him.
how is that going, Georgians?
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 21, 2022 11:12:49 GMT -5
How is Hershel walker anywhere near Warnock? The guy seems like drama (doesn’t he have dissociative identity disorder) and a messy family life (extra kids with different women all while talking down about absent fathers plus som domestic violence allegations?)? I don’t know much about warnock but everything I’ve seen looks classy and drama free. Who would ever vote for walker over him? Even if you weren’t a Dem, how could u seriously vote for someone as bad as walker? Anyone in Georgia that can weigh in? How many people don't "seriously vote"? I think there are a fair number that "superficial vote" and even more that answer polling questions in August that way. Hopefully as summer ends and the election nears, people will get more serious and take a good look at the candidates.
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Post by Mardi Gras Audrey on Aug 21, 2022 14:08:07 GMT -5
How is Hershel walker anywhere near Warnock? The guy seems like drama (doesn’t he have dissociative identity disorder) and a messy family life (extra kids with different women all while talking down about absent fathers plus som domestic violence allegations?)? I don’t know much about warnock but everything I’ve seen looks classy and drama free. Who would ever vote for walker over him? Even if you weren’t a Dem, how could u seriously vote for someone as bad as walker? Anyone in Georgia that can weigh in? How many people don't "seriously vote"? I think there are a fair number that "superficial vote" and even more that answer polling questions in August that way. Hopefully as summer ends and the election nears, people will get more serious and take a good look at the candidates. I know some people vote on the superficial stuff (I know the candidate name, etc) and don’t put a lot of research into it, it still boggles the mind that someone who knows the minimum about the candidates (preacher vs football player) and nothing else, would ever think walker would do a good job in govt. I like to read about entertainment and pop culture as much as the next person but would probably vote for someone e else if one of the kardashians ended up on my ballot. Even if I hadn’t done a lot of research… my first thoughts wouldn’t be football player/pop culture person= good senator/representative.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 21, 2022 15:47:57 GMT -5
How many people don't "seriously vote"? I think there are a fair number that "superficial vote" and even more that answer polling questions in August that way. Hopefully as summer ends and the election nears, people will get more serious and take a good look at the candidates. I know some people vote on the superficial stuff (I know the candidate name, etc) and don’t put a lot of research into it, it still boggles the mind that someone who knows the minimum about the candidates (preacher vs football player) and nothing else, would ever think walker would do a good job in govt. I like to read about entertainment and pop culture as much as the next person but would probably vote for someone e else if one of the kardashians ended up on my ballot. Even if I hadn’t done a lot of research… my first thoughts wouldn’t be football player/pop culture person= good senator/representative. I am thinking more "There is an "R" next to the name so I will/won't vote for them." "That is the person Trump endorsed so ..." What does it mean to "do a good job in govt" and be a "good senator/representative"? I have a well thought out answer and I would bet you do also. Others don't have a good grasp on what the job actually is let alone what doing it well would entail.
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 22, 2022 7:29:58 GMT -5
I’m from Georgia. Yes, Warnock is very articulate, an impressive speaker, and experienced in community organization. He’s been in office a couple years now, and the law he’s been trying to get passed is a cap on insulin costs. Trump picks candidates based on how good they are at kissing his ass, and how famous they are, because he believes voters will vote for someone they’ve seen on TV (which is why they voted for him). Hershel Walker, back in the day, was an exceptional football player and very well known in Georgia. That was enough to get Trump’s backing. Hershel has been out of the lime light for a while, though, and Trump didn’t vet him at all, so negatives started coming out of the woodwork. His out of wedlock kids. His admission that he has mental health issues and maybe multiple personalities. His anger issues. HIs physical violence against his wife. Despite that, last I checked, he’s still neck and neck with Warnock, because in the red parts of Georgia a vote for a Dem is a vote for a murderer (because of the abortion issue). Warnock will have to hope that enough GOPers decide they can’t vote for Walker or Warnock either one and stay home on voting day. Thank you for the insight… is abortion really the most important issue down there? Are most people thinking about it that often where it would be the number one issue? How do these people know walker is “pro-life”? Just because trump said so? (I’m guessing during his time as a football player that issue wouldn’t have come up in interviews much?) I guess I just can’t even picture how it must be to have that as the thing you worry about on a daily basis (before Roe was overturned, to stop abortions…. Not fighting for women’s right to choose. I understand why fighting for a woman’s right to choose would be a number one issue, as it is for me since it is about autonomy snd that is important to me). Aren’t a lot of these people the ones that hated Obama since he was black? How would walker be better than Obama (or Warnock)? I won’t speak for all of Georgia but for my rural, bright red corner of it, the rule has become you can’t vote for a Dem because they want to kill babies. Our elections for local office are all decided in the primaries where it’s not uncommon to have double digits of republican candidates running for the GOP side, and sometimes not even a single delegate on the Dem primary side. As for whether one of my neighbors would vote for Walker, since he’s black - some won’t. However being a much loved football star and Trump pal would make them amenable to it.
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Aug 26, 2022 11:10:01 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 27, 2022 11:34:13 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 27, 2022 11:39:38 GMT -5
Walker shouldn't be desperate. according to 538, Georgia officials are busy rigging the election for him.
NOTE: I like Nate Silver. and he might be right. but he is the ONLY one predicting that it will be close, at this juncture.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 27, 2022 12:33:51 GMT -5
Walker shouldn't be desperate. according to 538, Georgia officials are busy rigging the election for him. NOTE: I like Nate Silver. and he might be right. but he is the ONLY one predicting that it will be close, at this juncture. Hmmm, I was really impressed with how Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and election official Gabriel Sterling handled 2020.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 27, 2022 14:37:15 GMT -5
i think that is part of why i am not worried.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2022 6:13:36 GMT -5
other than a hot second in April, Biden's numbers are now at the best level in 5 months, and up five percent in the last five weeks. 538 has Democrats at 65% chance of winning the Senate. the other one has them at 61%. if you want a quick snapshot, Nevada gives you that: www.racetothewh.com/senate/nevadaa recent poll has Maestro +6%
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