for those of you in higher education

[teen persuasion]

My region's positivity rate continues above 1% while the state average remains under 1%, but it's trending downward. They are getting breakdowns of the age groups affected, and not surprisingly it's the 18-22 yo group that's largely driving it. Don't recall the exact age cutoffs, but there were 3 younger groups with single digit cases, then 207 in the 18-22 yo bracket, under 70 cases in next bracket (to 30yo).

Interesting side note in the article: the region is no longer the only high rate in the state, Long Island's rate popped up. Turns out its all those students at SUNY Oneonta - they got reported back to their home communities, and lots are from LI.

Now to the games the colleges are playing with Covid numbers on their dashboards. UB had 118 cases and counting associated with either students or staff, and Cuomo's rule is they have to close if they reach 100 cases OR 5% (UB is huge, 30-ish thousand students, let alone staff). They've divvied up the cases to on campus/off campus, and only 60 cases are on campus (the rest are in the residential neighborhood around South campus). So, no need to shut down! Uhn-uhh, DS5 and I agree it's just a matter of days before they hit an official 100 on campus, with the size of the population. Though I do sort of understand the on/off campus concept - DS5 is fully off campus here at home, 30 miles away. If he tested positive it has zero effect on UB. But students living in apartments a block off campus? Yeah, not so much.

[haapai]

In Ingham County, home of Michigan State University, the seven day average of new cases has quadrupled in the last three weeks.  This is despite the school deciding at the last moment to not open the dorms except for international students, ask off-campus students not to move to East Lansing, and making all undergraduate classes remote-only. 

[haapai]

Here's something else to consider.  The number of cases reported by a college or university may be vastly understated.  It can also be misleadingly labeled. 

www.michiganradio.org/post/msu-says-it-has-548-covid-19-cases-health-department-says-its-actually-1250

This situation may be occurring at other colleges and universities, particularly if there is a testing site on-campus and/or a lot of off-campus housing. 

ETA:  I'll be damned.  They actually fixed it!  I thought that they were going to drag their feet for as long as possible. 

[haapai]

This article from the NYT probably isn't paywalled and you can probably get to it with a free coronavirus account. 

www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/world/covid-19-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-7f8a5627

Two things popped out at me.  The first is that the expected pattern of young people getting infected and seeding infections in older generations has shown up and it showed up fast. 

The second thing is that we have a real problem with what to do with these students.  Fauci is absolutely begging that schools that are experiencing outbreaks do not send students home. 

At a Congressional hearing on Wednesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned against sending home students from colleges experiencing outbreaks.

Speaking about ill students, Dr. Fauci said colleges “should be able to accommodate the students in a facility, maybe a separate dorm or a separate floor so they don’t spread among the student body,” he said. “But do not send them home to their community because of the likelihood of them bringing infection in the community.”

This Thanksgiving is shaping up to be a real shitshow.  It wouldn't surprise me a bit if health authorities started slapping quarantine orders on dorms.  That would probably be a mitzvah. 

[oped]

If my daughter gets sick she’s coming home. We will isolate her but she’s coming home and even if someone is positive we are voting. That’s just they way it is.

[haapai]

Then I recommend that you look up your state's laws regarding quarantine and emergency absentee ballots.  Springing your daughter from the dorms may be more complicated than you think and it may involve breaking a law with a substantial fine or criminal penalty.  Emergency absentee ballots may not even exist. 

[oped]

She is in an apartment. She wouldn’t have gone back to school if she was in a dorm.

[TheOtherMe]

Local newspaper in Colorado interviewed 7 students in today's paper about the school going 100% remote for at least 2 weeks due to the numbers of covid at the school.

A freshman from the southern part of Denver moved home.  She said there is no control in the dorm.  She also said the promised cohorts so freshmen could make friends has still not happened.   Another factor in moving home was that she got kicked out of dorm when it became an isolation dorm.  She will get a large portion of her room and board refunded.

Another freshman's roommate tested positive.  It took the school 3 days to find an isolation room for the roommate.  The other student moved to a hotel for 3 nights.  The school won't reimburse her and she did stay at probably the cheapest hotel in Boulder.

All of the freshmen complained about loneliness and no activities to meet people and the group of cohorts not being set up.  Also about the lack of communication from the school.

Off campus students are upset about the partying others are doing.  All they want to do is to return to some semblance of normal and as long as other students party they know that is not going to happen.

[TheOtherMe]

oped  If I had a child test positive while away at school, I would most likely want them home.  

I am sure you would not do this, but a student at Iowa who tested positive took a greyhound bus home.  

[oped]

Oh no! In a vehicle isolated and into her bedroom isolated.

[TheOtherMe]

Sept 24, 2020 11:11:53 GMT -5 oped said:

Oh no! In a vehicle isolated and into her bedroom isolated.

I knew that you would not bring her home on a public bus.  

[Deleted]

I told DS if he tests positive to move into one of the isolation dorms.  I won't get him unless he gets really sick and the vast majority in that age group are not.  If he came home I'd have to pull Carrot from school and the entire family would be quarantined for 2 weeks.  Better he just does his time there.

[TheOtherMe]

Since Colorado isn't controlling covid, Boulder County took actio

Quote: "Boulder County has issued an order halting all gathenrings for Boulder residents between the ages of 18 and 22 and issued stay-at-home orders to more than 30 University Hill residences to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, which has surged in that age group since the start of the University of Colorado Boulder’s semester.

According to the order, which takes effect at 4 p.m. today, anyone aged 18 to 22 years old “anywhere in the city of Boulder may not participate in any gatherings of any size, whether indoors, outdoors, on or off campus, or with individuals of any age.”







The county also issued a stay-at-home order for residents of 36 addresses that “have repeatedly engaged in activities that violate public health orders or who live in congregate living situations.”

No athletic practice for two weeks.  

[TheOtherMe]

Colorado has told students they can be remote if they wish for the rest of the semester and they can return home.  They will receive a pro rata refund.

For those of you who think young, healthy kids have mild cases of covid, would you like this to be your son?

The Death That Speaks to College Football's Worst Virus Fear in the Pandemic:  The Death of a Football Player


www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-death-jamain-stephens.html

[Deleted]

Sept 24, 2020 17:29:16 GMT -5 TheOtherMe said:

Colorado has told students they can be remote if they wish for the rest of the semester and they can return home.  They will receive a pro rata refund.

For those of you who think young, healthy kids have mild cases of covid, would you like this to be your son?

The Death That Speaks to College Football's Worst Virus Fear in the Pandemic:  The Death of a Football Player


www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-death-jamain-stephens.html

I said MOST young people are only mildly ill. Colleges are cycling 10's of thousands through isolation dorms and many never even get symptoms. Plus, obesity is one of the top comorbidities associated with severe cases, and that kid was 350 pounds!  Football player or not, that was not what I would call a "healthy" kid. 

[pulmonarymd]

Sept 24, 2020 20:00:13 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

Sept 24, 2020 17:29:16 GMT -5 TheOtherMe said:

Colorado has told students they can be remote if they wish for the rest of the semester and they can return home.  They will receive a pro rata refund.

For those of you who think young, healthy kids have mild cases of covid, would you like this to be your son?

The Death That Speaks to College Football's Worst Virus Fear in the Pandemic:  The Death of a Football Player


www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-death-jamain-stephens.html

I said MOST young people are only mildly ill. Colleges are cycling 10's of thousands through isolation dorms and many never even get symptoms. Plus, obesity is one of the top comorbidities associated with severe cases, and that kid was 350 pounds!  Football player or not, that was not what I would call a "healthy" kid. 

How many really sick 20 year olds is significant? And risk factors are just that. Not everyone who gets really sick has significant risk factors

[Deleted]

It's okay as long as it only kills the fat and medically defective. 

[Deleted]

Sept 24, 2020 20:30:56 GMT -5 @shastasnewlife said:

It's okay as long as it only kills the fat and medically defective. 

Fuck you.  I'm done with this board.  

[oped]

Minnesota left?

[raeoflyte]

I really hope she comes back soon.

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Looks like it.

[ners]

Sept 24, 2020 21:19:20 GMT -5 raeoflyte said:

I really hope she comes back soon.

[jelloshots4all]

Sept 24, 2020 12:31:07 GMT -5 @Deleted said:

I told DS if he tests positive to move into one of the isolation dorms.  I won't get him unless he gets really sick and the vast majority in that age group are not.  If he came home I'd have to pull Carrot from school and the entire family would be quarantined for 2 weeks.  Better he just does his time there.

I agree with MPL.  My daughter, one of her roommates and several of her friends tested positive.  I told her she needed to quarantine at her college house unless her symptoms got worse. She couldn't taste, smell and was really tired.  I checked in with her numerous times per day.

But I did not want her to come home as I have had numerous health issues this summer (including 2 hospital stays) and her brother was back in school.  She followed the Univ and county health guidelines while at school, and after 2 weeks was back to herself.  So are her friends at her school, as well as friends that she knows form other schools.  I'm very thankful none became seriously ill.

[Opti]

Sept 24, 2020 20:29:42 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Sept 24, 2020 20:00:13 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I said MOST young people are only mildly ill. Colleges are cycling 10's of thousands through isolation dorms and many never even get symptoms. Plus, obesity is one of the top comorbidities associated with severe cases, and that kid was 350 pounds!  Football player or not, that was not what I would call a "healthy" kid. 

How many really sick 20 year olds is significant? And risk factors are just that. Not everyone who gets really sick has significant risk factors

Right now we don't know. In December we may have a better idea as colleges will have been open longer and people tend to get less vigilant over time. I looked for answers and this is one thing I found. This link contains data from NY City health. In April there were just 301 cases to analyze in the 18-44 demographic and in mid May they had 609 cases. 

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[oped]

I’ll admit we are extremely blessed, but daughter pretty much has the 2nd floor with half bath and a room that would serve as a buffer between her suit and us to exchange things in... except for a shower or if she needed to go to the hospital or something we could never cross paths. We also have excellent internet.

I’m also thinking about voting honestly. We will all Vote in person, regardless of if someone is positive. If she’s here for the duration of an illness that is easier.

She is not positive! I’m just planning 😜

Still waiting on tests for some of her roomates but those who have gotten them back are negative and she was home last weekend so hasn’t been near any of them since before they were exposed to someone who was exposed so...

[pulmonarymd]

Sept 26, 2020 9:52:30 GMT -5 Opti said:

Sept 24, 2020 20:29:42 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

How many really sick 20 year olds is significant? And risk factors are just that. Not everyone who gets really sick has significant risk factors

Right now we don't know. In December we may have a better idea as colleges will have been open longer and people tend to get less vigilant over time. I looked for answers and this is one thing I found. This link contains data from NY City health. In April there were just 301 cases to analyze in the 18-44 demographic and in mid May they had 609 cases. 

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

It was a rhetorical question, but given our current circumstances, the question that is at the crux of all this. Because there will be a few who are really ill and some will die. When we talk of loosening restrictions, those are the calculations, as cold as they may be. But it comes down to what a life is worth. I have an idea dea of my answer, but the powers that be either don’t know, care, or are unwilling to be forthright with the answer

[Blonde Granny]

Sept 24, 2020 20:56:58 GMT -5 oped said:

Minnesota left?

Yes, MinnesotaPaintedLady has deleted her membership.  Whether she will come back is anyones guess.

Now, can we try playing nice? And please, consider your remarks before you make them.


Blonde Granny - Admin -

[haapai]

I've been looking at some of the things that I said and have to wonder if I was a part of MPL leaving.   I hope that she comes back.  I've posted some things that had the practical effect of pouring water on a grease fire.  Claiming that I never intended to do something so destructive does not give me a pass.  I should have known, because I read, because I'm old enough to know better, what happens when you throw water on a grease fire.

Those of us who are not moms (like childless me) have no idea what moms are going through right now.  The vast majority of them are trying to make the best possible choices for their families with the cards and the choices that they have and that for the vast majority of moms the perfect, blameless path simply does not exist. 

[thyme4change]

We got market research at work.

The "most likely" return to normal was October - December of 2021. The things that have to happen were understandable, bit still kinda vague. Including widespread wearing of masks and widespread acceptance of the vaccination. I knoe that anti-vaxxers are way louder than their numbers, but who knows what that means.

The least likely scenario would be summer of 2021, and I can't imagine any of the levers would be true - including a very effective and long lasting vaccine coming out before mid-Nov, high adoption rates of adoption of masks and vaccines, and something else...can't recall.

If we still have decent adoption of masks and a vaccine shows up later, or isn't as efficacious, or doesn't have long lasting immunity, 2022 is a real possibility.

[Deleted]

1. It will take years to vaccinate willing Americans.

"Data from antibody testing suggest that about 90% of people are susceptible to Covid-19. Accepting that 60 to 70% of the population would have to be immune, either as a result of natural infection or vaccination, to achieve community protection (also known as herd immunity), about 200 million Americans and 5.6 billion people worldwide would need to be immune in order to end the pandemic. The possibility that it may take years to achieve the vaccination coverage necessary for everyone to be protected gives rise to difficult questions about priority groups and domestic and global access."

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp20253

2. The vaccine makers haven't given their cost, but it's been speculated the vaccines could be expensive when approved. 

"Given the upfront investment in the Moderna vaccine by the government, there are sharp questions about its eventual pricing. "It's a classic example of taxpayers paying twice for medicines," says Zain Rizvi, a law and policy researcher at Public Citizen focused on pharmaceuticals. "Now it wants to turn around and charge those very same taxpayers the highest public price for a potential COVID-19 [vaccine]. That's outrageous." "

www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/06/899869278/prices-for-covid-19-vaccines-are-starting-to-come-into-focus

I don't magically expect to see the "F-you I'm not wearing a mask and will party if I want" crowd to disappear or suddenly have a come to Jesus moment. In fact, when/if Trump loses the election this might get even worse.

For those reasons, I think anytime in 2021 is not realistic for any sort of return to normal. 2022 is perhaps even pushing it.

Pandemic longevity is an issue for me. I have to go back to working at some point and COVID is making it really hard to plan for that.