justme
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Post by justme on Jun 25, 2020 12:43:50 GMT -5
I was talking to a friend today and she said she heard somewhere that antibodies only are in your blood for 2 weeks. She didn't have a link, but if that's true then the antibody tests aren't super helpful.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jun 25, 2020 12:44:17 GMT -5
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Jun 25, 2020 13:19:18 GMT -5
I was talking to a friend today and she said she heard somewhere that antibodies only are in your blood for 2 weeks. She didn't have a link, but if that's true then the antibody tests aren't super helpful. I have to wonder about the sensitivity of the tests. So many tests have rolled out so quickly, without proper vetting that there should be a huge question about this. However, antibody responses do not stick around forever. I have run studies where by 3 months following exposure, the antibody response was at baseline but subsequent challenge/exposure produced a peak response in a few days. Presence of the antibody isn’t everything. Another thing that has been kicking about in my brain is that everyone talks about how important a neutralizing antibody is in inactivating the virus (at least in vitro). However, there is a huge segment of the population that gets asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. I wonder how much past exposure to coronavirus colds (colds are also caused by rhinoviruses too) has an effect on ameliorating the COVID pathological response? If you have a virus that cannot reach a target cell due to a non specific (aka cold) antibody, it would explain a whole lot of the population demographics we are seeing. Children get several colds/year which means they are constantly primed...so rarely get severe disease. So much to learn....so many possible explanations....
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jun 25, 2020 13:52:12 GMT -5
I heard something interesting on NPR yesterday- Covid hotspots seem to be linked to events with a lot of people inside an air conditioned building while not wearing masks. Like parties, church services, bars and restaurants. However, if you are outside in a hot and humid area but wearing a mask, transmission is low. They discovered this when following participants in BLM events- being so many people crowded together they expected high transmission rates, but that didn’t happen, because most people wore masks, and it was hot.
So if Trump would hold his rallies at open air baseball stadiums and required everyone to wear a mask, not many people would get sick, even if it was crowded. Something he should consider.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Jun 25, 2020 14:03:12 GMT -5
I heard something interesting on NPR yesterday- Covid hotspots seem to be linked to events with a lot of people inside an air conditioned building while not wearing masks. Like parties, church services, bars and restaurants. However, if you are outside in a hot and humid area but wearing a mask, transmission is low. They discovered this when following participants in BLM events- being so many people crowded together they expected high transmission rates, but that didn’t happen, because most people wore masks, and it was hot. So if Trump would hold his rallies at open air baseball stadiums and required everyone to wear a mask, not many people would get sick, even if it was crowded. Something he should consider. It's funny you think that Trump considers anything outside of his ego.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jun 25, 2020 14:28:02 GMT -5
I heard something interesting on NPR yesterday- Covid hotspots seem to be linked to events with a lot of people inside an air conditioned building while not wearing masks. Like parties, church services, bars and restaurants. However, if you are outside in a hot and humid area but wearing a mask, transmission is low. They discovered this when following participants in BLM events- being so many people crowded together they expected high transmission rates, but that didn’t happen, because most people wore masks, and it was hot. So if Trump would hold his rallies at open air baseball stadiums and required everyone to wear a mask, not many people would get sick, even if it was crowded. Something he should consider. It's funny you think that Trump considers anything outside of his ego. I hold out hope that if he knew of a way to have his big rally while protecting his voters he would do it. Yes I sometimes dwell in an alternate reality.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jun 25, 2020 14:31:56 GMT -5
I was talking to a friend today and she said she heard somewhere that antibodies only are in your blood for 2 weeks. She didn't have a link, but if that's true then the antibody tests aren't super helpful. I have to wonder about the sensitivity of the tests. So many tests have rolled out so quickly, without proper vetting that there should be a huge question about this. However, antibody responses do not stick around forever. I have run studies where by 3 months following exposure, the antibody response was at baseline but subsequent challenge/exposure produced a peak response in a few days. Presence of the antibody isn’t everything. Another thing that has been kicking about in my brain is that everyone talks about how important a neutralizing antibody is in inactivating the virus (at least in vitro). However, there is a huge segment of the population that gets asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. I wonder how much past exposure to coronavirus colds (colds are also caused by rhinoviruses too) has an effect on ameliorating the COVID pathological response? If you have a virus that cannot reach a target cell due to a non specific (aka cold) antibody, it would explain a whole lot of the population demographics we are seeing. Children get several colds/year which means they are constantly primed...so rarely get severe disease. So much to learn....so many possible explanations.... Intriguing. Thanks for the thoughts! In some ways it's kinda cool to see how this is all evolving as we know more. I had my antibody at pretty much 3 months after my "well you test negative for flu" sickness. It'd also be pretty hilarious if my knack for catching every cold I'm around could help me out like it does kids.
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Jun 25, 2020 14:43:48 GMT -5
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Jun 25, 2020 15:44:33 GMT -5
I have to wonder about the sensitivity of the tests. So many tests have rolled out so quickly, without proper vetting that there should be a huge question about this. However, antibody responses do not stick around forever. I have run studies where by 3 months following exposure, the antibody response was at baseline but subsequent challenge/exposure produced a peak response in a few days. Presence of the antibody isn’t everything. Another thing that has been kicking about in my brain is that everyone talks about how important a neutralizing antibody is in inactivating the virus (at least in vitro). However, there is a huge segment of the population that gets asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. I wonder how much past exposure to coronavirus colds (colds are also caused by rhinoviruses too) has an effect on ameliorating the COVID pathological response? If you have a virus that cannot reach a target cell due to a non specific (aka cold) antibody, it would explain a whole lot of the population demographics we are seeing. Children get several colds/year which means they are constantly primed...so rarely get severe disease. So much to learn....so many possible explanations.... Intriguing. Thanks for the thoughts! In some ways it's kinda cool to see how this is all evolving as we know more. I had my antibody at pretty much 3 months after my "well you test negative for flu" sickness. It'd also be pretty hilarious if my knack for catching every cold I'm around could help me out like it does kids. I know. When HIV came out, I was just out of college and did not have near the education and experience as I do now. This is why science is so intriguing.....and frustrating. You have to learn as you go and nothing is really ever set in stone. That means you need to think outside the box, but put the same pieces together. Having a bit of a science history background helps. For instance, Jenner noticed that cow maids rarely got small pox but would have lesions on their hands caused by cow pox. So his experimentation with the small pox vaccine initially came from using cow pox. I have no idea what was used in the 1970s when they stopped giving it. But my point about crossreacting antibody may conferring protection for covid from cold antibody does have a basis in history.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 25, 2020 15:53:25 GMT -5
First off - LOL Secondly, does anyone know what all the gray lines in that chart is? Is that every other country? We look like crap compared to Europe, which is a good compared, but if the rest of the world is a mess, maybe we could reset our expectations.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 25, 2020 16:30:45 GMT -5
First off - LOL Secondly, does anyone know what all the gray lines in that chart is? Is that every other country? We look like crap compared to Europe, which is a good compared, but if the rest of the world is a mess, maybe we could reset our expectations. The closest comparison from a societal standpoint is Western Europe. If we compare ourselves to Brazil or other similar countries, that is a significant fall from grace. We should be among the best given our wealth, scientific advancement and expertise, and innovation. The fact that we are not is a fisgrace
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 25, 2020 16:55:08 GMT -5
First off - LOL Secondly, does anyone know what all the gray lines in that chart is? Is that every other country? We look like crap compared to Europe, which is a good compared, but if the rest of the world is a mess, maybe we could reset our expectations. The closest comparison from a societal standpoint is Western Europe. If we compare ourselves to Brazil or other similar countries, that is a significant fall from grace. We should be among the best given our wealth, scientific advancement and expertise, and innovation. The fact that we are not is a fisgrace You mean....the shit hole countries?
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 25, 2020 17:00:26 GMT -5
I have to wonder about the sensitivity of the tests. So many tests have rolled out so quickly, without proper vetting that there should be a huge question about this. However, antibody responses do not stick around forever. I have run studies where by 3 months following exposure, the antibody response was at baseline but subsequent challenge/exposure produced a peak response in a few days. Presence of the antibody isn’t everything. Another thing that has been kicking about in my brain is that everyone talks about how important a neutralizing antibody is in inactivating the virus (at least in vitro). However, there is a huge segment of the population that gets asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. I wonder how much past exposure to coronavirus colds (colds are also caused by rhinoviruses too) has an effect on ameliorating the COVID pathological response? If you have a virus that cannot reach a target cell due to a non specific (aka cold) antibody, it would explain a whole lot of the population demographics we are seeing. Children get several colds/year which means they are constantly primed...so rarely get severe disease. So much to learn....so many possible explanations.... Intriguing. Thanks for the thoughts! In some ways it's kinda cool to see how this is all evolving as we know more. I had my antibody at pretty much 3 months after my "well you test negative for flu" sickness. It'd also be pretty hilarious if my knack for catching every cold I'm around could help me out like it does kids. I think if a positive test for antibodies proved you were immune...... It would be more helpful but we don't know if you are immune. A negative test doesn't prove that you haven't had it......... nor does it mean that you are more susceptible.......You still have T cells and other things that may help some people. and like you say there are other corona viruses in circulation and its just possible that a similar infection may offer some protection.
I think what it does mean (until we know better) is where the virus is and who is at risk... in order to mitigate. Its a useful tool in the fight against Covid19....... but only one of many more that are needed.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jun 25, 2020 17:19:16 GMT -5
Intriguing. Thanks for the thoughts! In some ways it's kinda cool to see how this is all evolving as we know more. I had my antibody at pretty much 3 months after my "well you test negative for flu" sickness. It'd also be pretty hilarious if my knack for catching every cold I'm around could help me out like it does kids. I think if a positive test for antibodies proved you were immune...... It would be more helpful but we don't know if you are immune. A negative test doesn't prove that you haven't had it......... nor does it mean that you are more susceptible.......You still have T cells and other things that may help some people. and like you say there are other corona viruses in circulation and its just possible that a similar infection may offer some protection.
I think what it does mean (until we know better) is where the virus is and who is at risk... in order to mitigate. Its a useful tool in the fight against Covid19....... but only one of many more that are needed.
I wasn't going to take it as unqualified immunity, I was mostly curious if I had it because I was pretty darn sick. Considering I have asthma and several autoimmune diseases that put me on the high risk (though it seems to maybe not be as bad as the originally though) it would have been a nice piece of mind to know that it didn't kill me and that if it doesn't make you immune and I got it again that I had a good chance of not dying. Alas it was negative, but like you and Mich said that doesn't mean I didn't have it. In mid Feb in Florida there were no covid tests for me.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 25, 2020 17:35:25 GMT -5
The closest comparison from a societal standpoint is Western Europe. If we compare ourselves to Brazil or other similar countries, that is a significant fall from grace. We should be among the best given our wealth, scientific advancement and expertise, and innovation. The fact that we are not is a fisgrace You mean....the shit hole countries? I don’t speak trump
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Jun 25, 2020 20:19:12 GMT -5
Anyone find a virus tracking website they like? I've been following worldometer off and on, but it appears who's ever doing their data entry isn't all that careful. Yesterday they had Washington at +651 for new cases, and Washington itself said it was +516. NJ stats are off. Total tests match, but total cases are 170,196 according to NJ and magically leapt from 169K something to 175K something. Total deaths are roughly 2000 off from confirmed deaths and even adding in probable deaths, the new total is too high.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jun 25, 2020 20:38:33 GMT -5
Anyone find a virus tracking website they like? I've been following worldometer off and on, but it appears who's ever doing their data entry isn't all that careful. Yesterday they had Washington at +651 for new cases, and Washington itself said it was +516. NJ stats are off. Total tests match, but total cases are 170,196 according to NJ and magically leapt from 169K something to 175K something. Total deaths are roughly 2000 off from confirmed deaths and even adding in probable deaths, the new total is too high. Worldometer tries to stay up to date. While other sources lag. This means they aren’t always on point with others, as they adjust up and down with new data... but their sources are always listed and frankly I appreciate their attempts to culdata in real time. There was a NJ glitch today but it seems to have been corrected.
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Jun 25, 2020 20:50:50 GMT -5
I heard something interesting on NPR yesterday- Covid hotspots seem to be linked to events with a lot of people inside an air conditioned building while not wearing masks. Like parties, church services, bars and restaurants. However, if you are outside in a hot and humid area but wearing a mask, transmission is low. They discovered this when following participants in BLM events- being so many people crowded together they expected high transmission rates, but that didn’t happen, because most people wore masks, and it was hot. So if Trump would hold his rallies at open air baseball stadiums and required everyone to wear a mask, not many people would get sick, even if it was crowded. Something he should consider. There was something on the local news about AC and it recirculating the air (and germs) being the reason for NY not allowing malls and gyms to reopen in phase 4 (like they'd expected). Gym owners were whining about prepping to reopen and having to wait indefinitely; "what about all the other businesses that have AC?".
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 25, 2020 21:29:53 GMT -5
40,000. Not much else to say. And still very little done in the states that are a disaster
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Jun 25, 2020 21:39:25 GMT -5
40,000. Not much else to say. And still very little done in the states that are a disaster Oh, but there is! Let’s cut funding for both coronavirus research and testing. It makes perfect sense!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 25, 2020 21:49:22 GMT -5
40,000. Not much else to say. And still very little done in the states that are a disaster Oh, but there is! Let’s cut funding for both coronavirus research and testing. It makes perfect sense! There wouldn’t be any cases then. They don’t seem to understand exponential growth, that’s for sure. Having down nothing to tamp this down means it will continue to increase over the next 2 weeks. Fla an Texas May each have 10,000 cases/day at that point
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Jun 25, 2020 22:35:23 GMT -5
Oh, but there is! Let’s cut funding for both coronavirus research and testing. It makes perfect sense! There wouldn’t be any cases then. They don’t seem to understand exponential growth, that’s for sure. Having down nothing to tamp this down means it will continue to increase over the next 2 weeks. Fla an Texas May each have 10,000 cases/day at that point My head exploded when I saw that news today. Not acknowledging it means it doesn’t go away.....just kills more. How many days until Nov. 3?
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Jun 26, 2020 0:03:54 GMT -5
Anyone find a virus tracking website they like? I've been following worldometer off and on, but it appears who's ever doing their data entry isn't all that careful. Yesterday they had Washington at +651 for new cases, and Washington itself said it was +516. NJ stats are off. Total tests match, but total cases are 170,196 according to NJ and magically leapt from 169K something to 175K something. Total deaths are roughly 2000 off from confirmed deaths and even adding in probable deaths, the new total is too high. Worldometer tries to stay up to date. While other sources lag. This means they aren’t always on point with others, as they adjust up and down with new data... but their sources are always listed and frankly I appreciate their attempts to culdata in real time. There was a NJ glitch today but it seems to have been corrected. I'm glad they attempt to stay on point. My reply accidently got deleted, but I don't understand why their total cases and other stats are higher than what's listed officially on at least 4 state websites.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2020 0:04:20 GMT -5
40,000. Not much else to say. And still very little done in the states that are a disaster when I said we would break the record soon YESTERDAY, I honestly didn't think it would be TODAY.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 26, 2020 5:38:04 GMT -5
40,000. Not much else to say. And still very little done in the states that are a disaster when I said we would break the record soon YESTERDAY, I honestly didn't think it would be TODAY. Don’t worry, it won’t continue much longer. They will slow down testing with there pulling support for drive through testing. It will affect 7 centers in Texas. If you have no plan, you have to lie. Wonder if his supporters will buy it
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andi9899
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Post by andi9899 on Jun 26, 2020 9:10:23 GMT -5
First off - LOL Secondly, does anyone know what all the gray lines in that chart is? Is that every other country? We look like crap compared to Europe, which is a good compared, but if the rest of the world is a mess, maybe we could reset our expectations. We look like crap compared to everyone else.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 26, 2020 12:11:39 GMT -5
First off - LOL Secondly, does anyone know what all the gray lines in that chart is? Is that every other country? We look like crap compared to Europe, which is a good compared, but if the rest of the world is a mess, maybe we could reset our expectations. We look like crap compared to everyone else. We look like crap compared to Europe. Although I agree that is the best comparison as those cultures are the most "like us", we can't deny that chart leaves off literally hundreds of countries. More than half the world's population is missing / hidden. We need to be careful with our "facts". And there is the fact that we suck compared to Europe, but we don't do any other comparisons (at least not on that chart).
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Jun 26, 2020 12:34:14 GMT -5
We look like crap compared to everyone else. We look like crap compared to Europe. Although I agree that is the best comparison as those cultures are the most "like us", we can't deny that chart leaves off literally hundreds of countries. More than half the world's population is missing / hidden. We need to be careful with our "facts". And there is the fact that we suck compared to Europe, but we don't do any other comparisons (at least not on that chart). Not to be too picky but last time I looked neither Canada not Australia are part of Europe and they are used for comparison purposes.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jun 26, 2020 12:34:52 GMT -5
Have you been following worldometer?
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jun 26, 2020 12:57:14 GMT -5
I don't know what happened to the graph but I have to admit that I am chilled by the similar slopes of the two upswings on the US national graph.
The first time that our cases went up at a shocking rate was during a time when we did not test, could not test, restricted testing, and rationed testing.
Now we are seeing the same terrifying growth. Problem is, we do test now and the new cases in states that have increasing cases are counterbalanced by decreasing new cases in the states that were hit hard early in the epidemic and are now seeing decreasing new cases.
I wonder what these curves would look like if we excluded the states that were hit early and hard but are now seeing cases decrease. I suspect the curves would probably look as bad or worse than what we saw in March and early April.
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