The Shape of the Covid19 Curve

[Tiny]

Mar 14, 2022 11:52:24 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 14, 2022 11:10:08 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

We have people we transferred to tertiary care hospitals from january who are still there, so some of this is what we see. Given the political nature of reporting deaths, there may be some delayed reporting see.

But we are still having 35K infections a day. 2 weeks ago it was about 70k. So I believe the persistence of the death rate has to do with the recent wave.

could it be some other variant with higher mortality is buried in the data

I don't think there's another variant that is causing higher deaths. There's been mention of new variants in the last 3 months but the detected new variant(s) effected few people (in comparison to the high numbers of new infections reported) with the little bit of data about them when "discovered" and shortly there after - they all seemed to be just as deadly as the original version and Omicron. The new variants didn't seem to stand a chance to spread - because Omicron beat them out.


It will be interesting to see if Omicron in China (if it has enough people to burn thru) spawns a new variant that perhaps is capable of re-infecting people who have had it already... AND that spreads just as fast as Omicron (and has a similar death rate).

Meant to add - it doesn't seem likely - Omicron has infected a zillion people and hasn't yet thrown off a variant that's been able to beat it. 

[djAdvocate]

Mar 14, 2022 12:23:37 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Mar 14, 2022 11:52:24 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

could it be some other variant with higher mortality is buried in the data?

Unlikely. Since most countries sample virus variants, it would have been found by now if it is causing this many deaths. It would have to be causing a substantial numbe rof infections to impact the data this way. Just more of the same we have seen before. Deaths lag, as hospitalizations fall, a higher proportion of those hospitalized are in the ICU with severe COVID, and they are far more likely to die. As we have seen previously, deaths remain stubbornly high for some time.

I have lost interest in tracking the pandemic worldwide. I just follow my association news feeds to get information about other parts of the world I need to track. Need a break after 2 long years

no, i didn't mean NEW variant- could it be something like Delta that is popping through?

[pulmonarymd]

Mar 15, 2022 0:05:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 14, 2022 12:23:37 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Unlikely. Since most countries sample virus variants, it would have been found by now if it is causing this many deaths. It would have to be causing a substantial numbe rof infections to impact the data this way. Just more of the same we have seen before. Deaths lag, as hospitalizations fall, a higher proportion of those hospitalized are in the ICU with severe COVID, and they are far more likely to die. As we have seen previously, deaths remain stubbornly high for some time.

I have lost interest in tracking the pandemic worldwide. I just follow my association news feeds to get information about other parts of the world I need to track. Need a break after 2 long years

no, i didn't mean NEW variant- could it be something like Delta that is popping through?

Doubt it. Again, there is testing being done. If it was occurring in significant numbers, we would see it

[djAdvocate]

Mar 15, 2022 5:25:25 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Mar 15, 2022 0:05:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

no, i didn't mean NEW variant- could it be something like Delta that is popping through?

Doubt it. Again, there is testing being done. If it was occurring in significant numbers, we would see it

"....and hear about it"?
i would presume that, based on pattern.

[pulmonarymd]

Mar 15, 2022 13:14:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 15, 2022 5:25:25 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Doubt it. Again, there is testing being done. If it was occurring in significant numbers, we would see it

"....and hear about it"?
i would presume that, based on pattern.

I would assume. I haven't seen any information from my state health department that would indicate we are seeing anything but omicron here. The delta wave appears to be over, the omicron wave is on its last legs. Who knows what happens next. I think the 1k people dying a day are those who were infected this winter finally succumbing despite aggressive care

[Value Buy]

Europe is seeing an increase with a subvariant version. Not sure if this is the one in China or not.


www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/is-omicron-subvariant-bapoint2-to-blame-for-rising-covid-cases.html

[djAdvocate]

i saw this same pattern in South Africa.

i have also noticed an uptick in cases in the last week or so.
i would assume that is due to relaxation of mask mandates.

[pulmonarymd]

Mar 15, 2022 13:51:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i saw this same pattern in South Africa.

i have also noticed an uptick in cases in the last week or so.
i would assume that is due to relaxation of mask mandates.

Likely, Case rates were always going to increase when restrictions are lifted. I hope we drove rates down far enough, but the math would suggest that we may not have and may see a mini-spike until the weather is reliably better

[djAdvocate]

yes.  if you look at the TEXAS data, for example, you can see a noticeable uptick.

[Value Buy]

Mar 15, 2022 13:51:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i saw this same pattern in South Africa.

i have also noticed an uptick in cases in the last week or so.
i would assume that is due to relaxation of mask mandates.

Right now the uptick is mostly in the northeast section of the country. In red state country there is no uptick and no masks, and will not spread until all the yankees come south for springbreak spreading the disease like a swarm of angry mosquitos for the next month.

[Value Buy]

Mar 15, 2022 13:56:57 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

yes.  if you look at the TEXAS data, for example, you can see a noticeable uptick.

Texas barely had a mask mandate and it was basically ignored by most citizens

[pulmonarymd]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Our cases continue to come down. Source for your claim?

ETA: Highest case counts in the last 14 days have been in Idaho and Kentucky. Unless my geography is off, neither ar ein the NE

[haapai]

I'm not sure where VB is getting numbers from but the NYT's Covid tracker is showing an uptick in new reported cases in Texas. 

Since I've stopped trying to read too much into new case numbers and started paying more attention to hospitalizations, I took a look at those too. 

The last time that hospitalizations took a turn in Texas was about six days after the seven-day trend line of new cases took a turn for the better. 

Given that information, the fact that hospitalizations in Texas haven't done anything interesting that I can detect in the last three days doesn't mean much.  It's going to take a two to six more days to figure out whether Texas's recent uptick in new reported cases means much. 

[Opti]

Mar 15, 2022 14:05:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Mar 15, 2022 13:51:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i saw this same pattern in South Africa.

i have also noticed an uptick in cases in the last week or so.
i would assume that is due to relaxation of mask mandates.

Right now the uptick is mostly in the northeast section of the country. In red state country there is no uptick and no masks, and will not spread until all the yankees come south for springbreak spreading the disease like a swarm of angry mosquitos for the next month.

Well, I just checked NJ and NY curves and no uptick. Idaho for example looks worse than both, but is down from their high.

[haapai]

Oh for love's sake, why are you guys thinking that no uptick in NY and NJ means that Texas' numbers are bogus!  And why, for love are you giving any credence at all to Idaho's new case numbers?  It wasn't that long ago that state officials had to admit publicly that a significant backlog of tests and the processing of new positive results was throwing their stats into chaos.  Maine had the same problem. 

Why are you being so gobsmackingly naive?  Are you even being naive?  You sound intentionally...something. 

[Opti]

Mar 15, 2022 17:50:48 GMT -5 haapai said:

Oh for love's sake, why are you guys thinking that no uptick in NY and NJ means that Texas' numbers are bogus!  And why, for love are you giving any credence at all to Idaho's new case numbers?  It wasn't that long ago that state officials had to admit publicly that a significant backlog of tests and the processing of new positive results was throwing their stats into chaos.  Maine had the same problem. 

Why are you being so gobsmackingly naive?  Are you even being naive?  You sound intentionally...something. 

While its cute you think I or anyone is taking his assertion at all seriously, just chill out. Not worth being upset over it.

[Tiny]

Not sure if this is Covid19 related or not -  but I've got quite a few family and friends who live in other states (and have NOT had contact with each other)  complaining about a "killer" 24 hour Flu - you know the one where you puke and have diarrhea really bad for a day - then have a day of feeling bad/tired (death warmed over)  and then the 3rd day you are feeling OK.     The thing that stood out to me with (the reports over the last two weeks) was that all of them said they had puked/pooped so bad that first day (or night) that their innards hurt - so laughing or coughing on the day after hurt.      

And tonight - on a couple of the "chat boards" I visit - someone on each one mentioned the puke/poop thing as "food poisoning" or a really bad 24 hour flu and said it was the worst they've had in years and years....    

Is that coincidence  or is this one of the Covid 19 variants??   

I hope none of you have a bout of the "24 hour flu"....  the one going around seems pretty nasty. 

[pulmonarymd]

Likely a viral gastroenteritis. Going to see a lot of these non-Covid viral infections reappear now that Covid restrictions have been lifted

[djAdvocate]

Mar 15, 2022 16:34:59 GMT -5 Opti said:

Mar 15, 2022 14:05:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Right now the uptick is mostly in the northeast section of the country. In red state country there is no uptick and no masks, and will not spread until all the yankees come south for springbreak spreading the disease like a swarm of angry mosquitos for the next month.

Well, I just checked NJ and NY curves and no uptick. Idaho for example looks worse than both, but is down from their high.

i just got through pointing out that Texas (fine with me if you want to argue this is a purple state, not a red one.  i am not going to argue that point) had a 7 day case rate that went from 3600 to 4200 in a week (+20%) between 3/6 and 3/13.

so yeah, someone is cherry picking at best, or just flat out lying at worst.

[haapai]

To be honest, I'm spending more time than I want to admit looking for a BA2 bounce in US state-by-state data trends.  It may not be an easy thing to spot, given the switch to unreported rapid testing and the low hospitalization signal that Omicron infections give off.  It also might not show up first on the West or East coast where we are assuming that it will show up.  

So far, I got data bupkis, but the folks who do wastewater surveillance are saying things that I wish were not true.