The Shape of the Covid19 Curve

[djAdvocate]

covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I posted this a couple days ago and called it wildly optimistic.
now, the total has gone up 12,000, which means that they are adjusting it
based on incoming data. so, that is causing me to trust it.

they are estimating that it will peak around May 1st now, and be over by August 1st.
that is the first reasonable estimate I have heard, so I am going with this.

current estimated death toll is 93,000. this is based on a NATIONAL shelter in place order, which does not exist.

so, here is a good way to judge Trump's job. the estimate he himself posted (I believe) was from this organization. they specified what was needed to be done, and so I would guess that professionals an experts could be employed by Trump to make that happen. the guess was 81k.

I hold Trump personally accountable for any deaths beyond that.
let's see where he ends up.

just to capture the data:

Total deaths
Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020
93,765COVID-19 deaths

[djAdvocate]

here is why the curve will end up over 93k:

As of Monday afternoon, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas have no mandatory shelter-in-place directives at the city or state level.

here is another reason why:

Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Maine have partial lockdown orders; individual cities have declared shelter-in-place mandates but the state as a whole has not.

until that happens, the actuals will very likely run ahead of the projections.

[oped]

I can’t see that the shelter in place spaces in pa are any different than those without. There are so many exceptions it doesn’t feel different except maybe it provides more options to enforce? But that isn’t happening that I hear? I’m in non shelter in place.

[pulmonarymd]

That’s the site I have been using. Now up to almost 94,000 dead. This is only for first wave. Since we still can’t intervene, infections will continue. So some simple calculations:

Assuming a 1% mortality( to make it easy), we then had about 10 million documented cases, 3% of population. How many undocumented cases were there. 2x, 5x, 10x. Vastly different ramifications for size of next wave. And, when we liberalize social interactions, more infections will occur until we have a vaccine

[justme]

Florida won't order it state wide until trump tells him to.   

[Blonde Granny]

Arkansas: There is no mandatory Shelter in Place

8 Deaths, 523 Cases Of COVID-19 In Arkansas; Officials Say State Remains Below Projections

I live in Washington County (far NW corner) 19 cases reported so far. Population of Washington County is approximately 210K

[mmhmm]

South Carolina has no shelter in place order; however, Charleston and Columbia have instituted their own shelter in place orders. Currently there are 1083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state with 22 deaths. Beach access and state boat ramps are closed but the beaches are still open. As of today, non-essential businesses must close per an order from the governor made yesterday. My county has 37 cases with 0 deaths.

[deminmaine]

Apr 1, 2020 2:46:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

here is why the curve will end up over 93k:

As of Monday afternoon, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas have no mandatory shelter-in-place directives at the city or state level.

here is another reason why:

Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Maine have partial lockdown orders; individual cities have declared shelter-in-place mandates but the state as a whole has not.

until that happens, the actuals will very likely run ahead of the projections.

Maine has tightened up.  The Gov yesterday issued a new Stay at Home mandate.  We are now locked down, except for essential business. 

[justme]

I gave up trying to find the thread with the same title while I'm in between meetings, but wanted to share. Feel free to post on other threads! 

[mmhmm]

Apr 1, 2020 9:51:31 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Apr 1, 2020 2:46:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

here is why the curve will end up over 93k:

As of Monday afternoon, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas have no mandatory shelter-in-place directives at the city or state level.

here is another reason why:

Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Maine have partial lockdown orders; individual cities have declared shelter-in-place mandates but the state as a whole has not.

until that happens, the actuals will very likely run ahead of the projections.

Maine has tightened up.  The Gov yesterday issued a new Stay at Home mandate.  We are now locked down, except for essential business. 

Florida's governor finally shook his brain awake and did the same today.

[azucena]

MO governor still holding out
www.kmov.com/news/mike-parson-doesn-t-plan-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-missouri-calls-it/article_b29e9730-7378-11ea-8213-73ba9dc2cab5.html?fbclid=IwAR2Yp13nA-tT8GoMypjyNAvr3l0A6i_2hId3FG3_zAtyKdU2pRZDC3QlC6s

"It’s difficult to make a blanket policy for the state of Missouri," Parson said. "It’s going to come down to individual responsibilities."

    - oh good, I love relying on everyone else to make sensible choices

“The one thing I focus on every day is real data,” Parson said. “How many people do we have in the hospital. How many people have tested positive, and where do these things lead us to in the future. These decisions are not easy to make every day.”
    - glad we could learn from NYC etc

[lynnerself]

1. KC,MO is where my niece that works at Walmart just came down sick. She has been begging everyone for the last 2 weeks to stay home.

2. My state acted early and aggressively and it looks we have a pretty flat curve (on the above link). Looks like our peak is not until May 6, and that we have resources to cover it.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 1, 2020 9:51:31 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Apr 1, 2020 2:46:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

here is why the curve will end up over 93k:

As of Monday afternoon, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas have no mandatory shelter-in-place directives at the city or state level.

here is another reason why:

Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Maine have partial lockdown orders; individual cities have declared shelter-in-place mandates but the state as a whole has not.

until that happens, the actuals will very likely run ahead of the projections.

Maine has tightened up.  The Gov yesterday issued a new Stay at Home mandate.  We are now locked down, except for essential business. 

remind me please, who replaced Governor Whackadoodle?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 1, 2020 14:18:40 GMT -5 azucena said:

MO governor still holding out
www.kmov.com/news/mike-parson-doesn-t-plan-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-missouri-calls-it/article_b29e9730-7378-11ea-8213-73ba9dc2cab5.html?fbclid=IwAR2Yp13nA-tT8GoMypjyNAvr3l0A6i_2hId3FG3_zAtyKdU2pRZDC3QlC6s

"It’s difficult to make a blanket policy for the state of Missouri," Parson said. "It’s going to come down to individual responsibilities."

    - oh good, I love relying on everyone else to make sensible choices

“The one thing I focus on every day is real data,” Parson said. “How many people do we have in the hospital. How many people have tested positive, and where do these things lead us to in the future. These decisions are not easy to make every day.”
    - glad we could learn from NYC etc

um....no it isn't.  you have 30+ examples of how to do it, dumbass.  just use one.

oh- and STOP LISTENING TO THE IDIOTS WHO ARE NOT TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY.

you're welcome.

dumbass.

note: this is me talking to Parsons, not to azu.

[happyhoix]

Apr 1, 2020 6:52:54 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

That’s the site I have been using. Now up to almost 94,000 dead. This is only for first wave. Since we still can’t intervene, infections will continue. So some simple calculations:

Assuming a 1% mortality( to make it easy), we then had about 10 million documented cases, 3% of population. How many undocumented cases were there. 2x, 5x, 10x. Vastly different ramifications for size of next wave. And, when we liberalize social interactions, more infections will occur until we have a vaccine

I heard one medical professional speculating that we might see it slow down by summer but ramp back up in the fall, but at least at that point we might be more prepared with PPE, ventilators, and hopefully a few things that can help slow the progress/speed up recovery in the most seriously impacted victims. 

Fingers crossed. 

[wwtpgirl66]

Apr 1, 2020 16:41:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 1, 2020 9:51:31 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Maine has tightened up.  The Gov yesterday issued a new Stay at Home mandate.  We are now locked down, except for essential business. 

remind me please, who replaced Governor Whackadoodle?

Governor Janet Mills.  Meh.  Some good some bad but is handling the virus okay.  

[happyhoix]

Apr 1, 2020 2:46:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

here is why the curve will end up over 93k:

As of Monday afternoon, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas have no mandatory shelter-in-place directives at the city or state level.

here is another reason why:

Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Maine have partial lockdown orders; individual cities have declared shelter-in-place mandates but the state as a whole has not.

until that happens, the actuals will very likely run ahead of the projections.

Kemp finally issued a stay at home order for the state of GA until April 13th. And he closed all the K-12 schools to the end of the school year. A little late for Atlanta. 

[pulmonarymd]

Apr 1, 2020 18:22:40 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Apr 1, 2020 6:52:54 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

That’s the site I have been using. Now up to almost 94,000 dead. This is only for first wave. Since we still can’t intervene, infections will continue. So some simple calculations:

Assuming a 1% mortality( to make it easy), we then had about 10 million documented cases, 3% of population. How many undocumented cases were there. 2x, 5x, 10x. Vastly different ramifications for size of next wave. And, when we liberalize social interactions, more infections will occur until we have a vaccine

I heard one medical professional speculating that we might see it slow down by summer but ramp back up in the fall, but at least at that point we might be more prepared with PPE, ventilators, and hopefully a few things that can help slow the progress/speed up recovery in the most seriously impacted victims. 

Fingers crossed. 

Yes, there will be multiple peaks until there is a vaccine, each will be smaller than the previous as the pool of susceptible people shrinks. How man people have had mild infections is also important

[djAdvocate]

Apr 1, 2020 18:45:32 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Apr 1, 2020 18:22:40 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I heard one medical professional speculating that we might see it slow down by summer but ramp back up in the fall, but at least at that point we might be more prepared with PPE, ventilators, and hopefully a few things that can help slow the progress/speed up recovery in the most seriously impacted victims. 

Fingers crossed. 

Yes, there will be multiple peaks until there is a vaccine, each will be smaller than the previous as the pool of susceptible people shrinks. How man people have had mild infections is also important

query:

do you think that the "recovered" folks will be more at risk or less at risk, in terms of mortality (not from the virus, just in general)?  if you don't know/can't guess, that's cool-  just wondering.

[pulmonarymd]

Apr 1, 2020 19:38:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 1, 2020 18:45:32 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Yes, there will be multiple peaks until there is a vaccine, each will be smaller than the previous as the pool of susceptible people shrinks. How man people have had mild infections is also important

query:

do you think that the "recovered" folks will be more at risk or less at risk, in terms of mortality (not from the virus, just in general)?  if you don't know/can't guess, that's cool-  just wondering.

People who get seriously ill with this with significant lung injury and need mechanical ventilation will likely have some chronic lung disease. Some people wind up with cardiac disease, long term outcome of that is unknown. Look ver and kidney injury also occurs, again long term outcome is unknown, but suspect kidney disease is likely reversible. Did that answer your question?

[Tennesseer]

Apr 1, 2020 10:52:58 GMT -5 justme said:

I gave up trying to find the thread with the same title while I'm in between meetings, but wanted to share. Feel free to post on other threads! 

[Tennesseer]

Apr 1, 2020 14:18:40 GMT -5 azucena said:

MO governor still holding out
www.kmov.com/news/mike-parson-doesn-t-plan-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-missouri-calls-it/article_b29e9730-7378-11ea-8213-73ba9dc2cab5.html?fbclid=IwAR2Yp13nA-tT8GoMypjyNAvr3l0A6i_2hId3FG3_zAtyKdU2pRZDC3QlC6s

"It’s difficult to make a blanket policy for the state of Missouri," Parson said. "It’s going to come down to individual responsibilities."

    - oh good, I love relying on everyone else to make sensible choices

“The one thing I focus on every day is real data,” Parson said. “How many people do we have in the hospital. How many people have tested positive, and where do these things lead us to in the future. These decisions are not easy to make every day.”
    - glad we could learn from NYC etc

Neither is Tennessee. Governor won't do it.

[Happy prose]

In NJ, we have had the shelter in place since I think March 15, and our numbers as of yesterday are staggering. It's terrifying. I think there are too many exceptions to the order. Bicycle repair shops C'mon...

[deminmaine]

Apr 1, 2020 18:27:46 GMT -5 wwtpgirl66 said:

Apr 1, 2020 16:41:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

remind me please, who replaced Governor Whackadoodle?

Governor Janet Mills.  Meh.  Some good some bad but is handling the virus okay.  

Are you a Mainah?  

I didn't vote for her in the excellent primary field that we had, but I like her more and more as time goes on.  She is a centrist and can get things done from the middle, which I do like.  She had the guts to stand up for the green power corridor when everyone else in the state opposes it (except me) and she has an excellent head on her shoulders that she uses independently.  I still don't always agree with her, but I do trust her and think overall she does a good job for Maine.  

[deminmaine]

Apr 1, 2020 20:31:34 GMT -5 Happy prose said:

In NJ, we have had the shelter in place since I think March 15, and our numbers as of yesterday are staggering. It's terrifying. I think there are too many exceptions to the order. Bicycle repair shops C'mon...

I posed the question three weeks ago in another (financial) forum on these boards- Why don't we just shut it ALL down?  Moratorium delaying ALL fiduciary obligation for X days, including payments, notes, rents, signings, payoffs, paychecks, everything.

Essential business - and I mean essential- to remain open, food, medicine, infrastructure, gov't, some repair and maint.  Other exemptions to be allowed by gov't writ as needed (including case by case exemptions) Shut down the bicycle and millwork shops!  

I expected terrific blowback!  (which is why I posted on a financial forum)  Liquidity issues, large corporate failure, international economic shock and collapse, etc, concepts too big for me to grasp.  I got nothing.  Of course it is too late for that now.... we are now in a different reality.  I think that approach would have been better though.

[wwtpgirl66]

Apr 2, 2020 6:40:10 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Apr 1, 2020 18:27:46 GMT -5 wwtpgirl66 said:

Governor Janet Mills.  Meh.  Some good some bad but is handling the virus okay.  

Are you a Mainah?  

I didn't vote for her in the excellent primary field that we had, but I like her more and more as time goes on.  She is a centrist and can get things done from the middle, which I do like.  She had the guts to stand up for the green power corridor when everyone else in the state opposes it (except me) and she has an excellent head on her shoulders that she uses independently.  I still don't always agree with her, but I do trust her and think overall she does a good job for Maine.  

I am a Mainah.   Midcoast area.  I also did not vote for her but I think she’s doing a decent job with the pandemic.  The secret is to get people to adhere to the mandate.  I work in an essential business but even my employer has gone to working from home and for those who can’t staggering shifts and paying the employees even if they aren’t physically there but are on call. 

[deminmaine]

Down heah in Northern MA (York County ME) myself wwtpgirl66!  We too are an essential workplace, although I scratch my head at that.  That is the national guideline though, not the state, and we do hospital and some defense related work, so, yeah, I get it kind of.  We have two people out with what are hopefully just allergy coughs, but gotta be safe.  Everyone else are following protocol, but we are putting ourselves and other people at risk by being out and about, buying gas, all that stuff.

Midcoast area is pretty.  Love the Blues Festival and its setting, but haven't been in a few years.

[happyhoix]

Apr 1, 2020 18:45:32 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Apr 1, 2020 18:22:40 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I heard one medical professional speculating that we might see it slow down by summer but ramp back up in the fall, but at least at that point we might be more prepared with PPE, ventilators, and hopefully a few things that can help slow the progress/speed up recovery in the most seriously impacted victims. 

Fingers crossed. 

Yes, there will be multiple peaks until there is a vaccine, each will be smaller than the previous as the pool of susceptible people shrinks. How man people have had mild infections is also important

how long, do you think, before they have an antibody test? That would enable all the people already exposed to go back to work at least. 

[Opti]

Apr 1, 2020 20:31:34 GMT -5 Happy prose said:

In NJ, we have had the shelter in place since I think March 15, and our numbers as of yesterday are staggering. It's terrifying. I think there are too many exceptions to the order. Bicycle repair shops C'mon...

In my area of CNJ, there are more than a few underfunded people that use bikes to get to work. So the bike shops are probably considered to be like keeping car repair places open. 

[pulmonarymd]

Apr 2, 2020 9:34:14 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Apr 1, 2020 18:45:32 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Yes, there will be multiple peaks until there is a vaccine, each will be smaller than the previous as the pool of susceptible people shrinks. How man people have had mild infections is also important

how long, do you think, before they have an antibody test? That would enable all the people already exposed to go back to work at least. 

.

Depends on a number of factors. That should be easier than a vaccine. Sure it is being worked on. Biggest impediment will be how you ast it is too automate. If it cannot be easily done by a machine, it becomes very labor intensive. Capacity stays low and turnaround time is longer, so will take longer to screen people