pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 30, 2020 17:07:19 GMT -5
Normally, you would see an exponential increase because 1 person gives it to 2, and those 2 each give it to 2, and now there are 4 people giving it to 2 each, 8 people give it to 16, 16 gives it to 32. I don't know if it needed to mutate to get some velocity. I was thinking maybe if one person spread it to 2 people before the mutation and now one person will spread it to 3 people - we'd see a bigger/faster spike in infections. The hard hit states are currently at about 1.5. Many NE states are under 1. You do not want to see an R of 3.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 30, 2020 17:38:32 GMT -5
I really like looking at the Science........ and being in the UK means our media is quite varied, so I might have a different point of view. We aren't in normal times though.......... this kind of stuff normally takes years. The speed at which the information is needed is unprecedented.
The Recovery team have just finished with lopinavir-ritonavir to find no clinical benefit. They are recruiting children for the next dexamethasone trial...... and they are finishing of with Tocilizumab which has shown promise in another trial. Scientists all over the World are working really hard to find something that will help with the pandemic..... Everybody is singing from the same hymnsheet here.
I think its mutated enough so that you can trace where its come from.... (most of ours is from Spain)........... but its not mutated that much that its a different virus.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 30, 2020 18:00:13 GMT -5
I really like looking at the Science........ and being in the UK means our media is quite varied, so I might have a different point of view. We aren't in normal times though.......... this kind of stuff normally takes years. The speed at which the information is needed is unprecedented.
The Recovery team have just finished with lopinavir-ritonavir to find no clinical benefit. They are recruiting children for the next dexamethasone trial...... and they are finishing of with Tocilizumab which has shown promise in another trial. Scientists all over the World are working really hard to find something that will help with the pandemic..... Everybody is singing from the same hymnsheet here.
I think its mutated enough so that you can trace where its come from.... (most of ours is from Spain)........... but its not mutated that much that its a different virus.
They will do expedited publication. We need to see the data. Enough with conclusions without something to back it up. It is not a normal time, but we can’t fo sloppy science either
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 30, 2020 18:29:51 GMT -5
The Recovery team have just finished with lopinavir-ritonavir to find no clinical benefit. They are recruiting children for the next dexamethasone trial...... and they are finishing of with Tocilizumab which has shown promise in another trial.
Scientists all over the World are working really hard to find something that will help with the pandemic..... Everybody is singing from the same hymnsheet here.
...and yet, the USA was conspicuously absent from the Global Vaccine Summit. khn.org/morning-breakout/u-s-conspicuously-absent-as-world-leaders-pledge-8-billion-to-help-fund-vaccine-efforts/
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 30, 2020 18:30:52 GMT -5
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Jun 30, 2020 18:34:25 GMT -5
I was thinking maybe if one person spread it to 2 people before the mutation and now one person will spread it to 3 people - we'd see a bigger/faster spike in infections. The hard hit states are currently at about 1.5. Many NE states are under 1. You do not want to see an R of 3. How does one find out the R of the various states?
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 30, 2020 18:39:41 GMT -5
The paper for dexamethasone is out and awaiting peer review....... which could take some time ........https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137273v1.full.pdf+html
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 30, 2020 18:52:03 GMT -5
One of the worries has to be that someone invents a vaccine and doesn't share it properly with the poorer countries. or that there is a treatment ... but not working co-operation to manufacture it in quantity.... or cheaply enough for the poorer Countries. That must not happen.
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anciana
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Post by anciana on Jun 30, 2020 19:02:47 GMT -5
The hard hit states are currently at about 1.5. Many NE states are under 1. You do not want to see an R of 3. How does one find out the R of the various states? Here is one place: rt.live/
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oped
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Post by oped on Jun 30, 2020 19:03:00 GMT -5
The hard hit states are currently at about 1.5. Many NE states are under 1. You do not want to see an R of 3. How does one find out the R of the various states? rt.live/
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 30, 2020 19:03:31 GMT -5
One of the worries has to be that someone invents a vaccine and doesn't share it properly with the poorer countries. or that there is a treatment ... but not working co-operation to manufacture it in quantity.... or cheaply enough for the poorer Countries. That must not happen.
No kidding, but I expect the worse from Trump. Kind of like when he grabbed the personal protection equipment from a Quebec warehouse after we bought it and paid for it. Or when they seized PPE from the states, with Jared saying "That's OUR PPE!" I'm pretty sure that's why the Trump administration refused to participate in the GLOBAL Vaccine Summit. "It's OUR vaccine, so piss off!"
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 30, 2020 19:17:18 GMT -5
The paper for dexamethasone is out and awaiting peer review....... which could take some time ........https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137273v1.full.pdf+html Still a preliminary report. Devil is in the details. Pretty much says what press release said
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 1, 2020 3:51:17 GMT -5
One of the worries has to be that someone invents a vaccine and doesn't share it properly with the poorer countries. or that there is a treatment ... but not working co-operation to manufacture it in quantity.... or cheaply enough for the poorer Countries. That must not happen.
No kidding, but I expect the worse from Trump. Kind of like when he grabbed the personal protection equipment from a Quebec warehouse after we bought it and paid for it. Or when they seized PPE from the states, with Jared saying "That's OUR PPE!" I'm pretty sure that's why the Trump administration refused to participate in the GLOBAL Vaccine Summit. "It's OUR vaccine, so piss off!" The US has bought almost all the Worlds upcoming supply of the drug Remdesivir. This is how big pharma behaves ......... even though people all over the World tested this drug so it could go on sale including in the UK, (we now have none) Something disgusting about profiteering when people are on their death beds all over the World. I'm surprised Jared hasn't brought the Worlds supply of Dexamthasone Our Scientists are government funded (and indeed by Bill Gates)....... The two vaccines they are producing are not for profit......... and the chemical factories that are already making them, are doing so at cost with the distribution already worked out by our chemical factory Astra Zeneca...2xBillion doses.
Pretty sure we will get something from the EU or Japan if theirs are better
but we aren't banking on China or the US to share.
The World has to work together.......this protectionism has to stop. People in Africa worried about what they'll get for their patients.....but if the US and China won't help them........... We will Until peer assessed by referees, Its "this is what we know, make you own mind up" whilst they work on the other arms of the study.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 1, 2020 6:12:11 GMT -5
Hard to make up your mind without more details. Numbers don’t lie
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 1, 2020 6:36:33 GMT -5
Sure, whatever, £3000 for six Remdesivir tablets?......Its not a cure..... and one of the side effects is respiratory failure. Apparently we can get a compulsory license and then get the drug from India.... but we can go without.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 1, 2020 7:03:10 GMT -5
Sure, whatever, £3000 for six Remdesivir tablets?......Its not a cure..... and one of the side effects is respiratory failure. Apparently we can get a compulsory license and then get the drug from India.... but we can go without.
Sorry, drug costs are a problem, especially in the US. Talking about the study. I hope it stands up to scrutiny. We need good news with this disease. Every optimistic statement/thought has been cruelly crushed by this disease. Would like some good news and some incremental progress. In my career, I have seen far too many times, studies either over promising, not be able to be replicated, or not work as advertised in real world circumstances. One reason we tend to be cautious with these sort of things. It appears that it decreases mortality in the severest cases by 35%. Sounds wonderful. Does that mean mortality decreased from 80% to 50%, or from 35% to 22%. Also, how well were groups matched. I am more hopeful that this will work as compared to hydroxychroloquine. It just makes much more sense based on what I think is going on in critically ill patients, so it would be wonderful if it turns out to be true. I am old, tired, and cynical. Take what I say with that in mind.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 1, 2020 7:25:24 GMT -5
Question on the US purchasing the majority of Remdesivir supply... The two news articles I read (unable to link as I am on my phone), this supply was over 500,000 doses and will be produced between July and September. This drug is supposed to help people recover faster from Covid and will take 6 doses per person to do so.
My question... this supply will treat less than 100,000 people. While I acknowledge that the USA is a bully, it also is one of the worst-hit countries right now. How should the developed/developing vaccines be distributed over the next 2 years? Should it be by purchasing power (before people jump on my case, IMO, no), number/percentage of critical cases, number/percentage of deaths, existing medical staff, infrastructure and ability to move the vaccines, first-come first-serve, other influences?
Weltz commented earlier on the PPE and US "reallocating" it from other countries. The US was in an uproar when New York and other states were begging for ventilators and Jared said that they were "ours" and to get your own. So obviously, the US federal government right now will not play fair.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 1, 2020 7:49:55 GMT -5
Question on the US purchasing the majority of Remdesivir supply... The two news articles I read (unable to link as I am on my phone), this supply was over 500,000 doses and will be produced between July and September. This drug is supposed to help people recover faster from Covid and will take 6 doses per person to do so. My question... this supply will treat less than 100,000 people. While I acknowledge that the USA is a bully, it also is one of the worst-hit countries right now. How should the developed/developing vaccines be distributed over the next 2 years? Should it be by purchasing power (before people jump on my case, IMO, no), number/percentage of critical cases, number/percentage of deaths, existing medical staff, infrastructure and ability to move the vaccines, first-come first-serve, other influences? Weltz commented earlier on the PPE and US "reallocating" it from other countries. The US was in an uproar when New York and other states were begging for ventilators and Jared said that they were "ours" and to get your own. So obviously, the US federal government right now will not play fair. It should be allocated fairly, based on proportion of current cases. We should not have a monopoly on the supply. I have no idea what Kushner meant when he said the federal government’s supply was “ours”. I thought the federal government was us, and the supply was meant for the American people, but they did not act that way, and it lead to an increase in risk for health care professionals and states bidding against each other. A less than optimal outcome, in my opinion
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 1, 2020 8:15:02 GMT -5
The bitch of it is that we the people payed to develop the drug in the first place... now it’s 3k a go...? Healthcare needs to be not for profit.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 1, 2020 8:56:43 GMT -5
There is no right answer for this and the devil is in the details... By current cases? By total cases? By serious cases in hospital? By a case to testing ratio of some sort? If that is the standard, are countries going to test more to identify more cases? Should it depend on what the vaccine is supposed to achieve? For example, this one is to reduce the time person is impacted (not minimize the severity or limit the number of impacts).
The world is going to have this problem. Does the WHO or the CDC for the USA have a game plan on distribution?
The only explanation I could see for Jared's comment is that the White House was in a wait and see phase. I understand not sending all the ventilators to NY, but some should have been at least based on population initially so maybe 7%? of the stockpiled ventilators.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 1, 2020 9:02:10 GMT -5
The bitch of it is that we the people payed to develop the drug in the first place... now it’s 3k a go...? Healthcare needs to be not for profit. I don't disagree with you. However, if it is going to be not for profit, will there be companies who do drug R&D?
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 1, 2020 9:06:45 GMT -5
The Countries that attended the vaccine distribution conference........ UK, EU Canada, Australia Most of the G7.... wanted the treatments to go to the places most in need first. As for Vaccines... health carers and vulnerable groups first. I'm not sure what the US is doing.
Our Science teams are government funded....and they have thrown the kitchen sink at this.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 1, 2020 9:11:57 GMT -5
The bitch of it is that we the people payed to develop the drug in the first place... now it’s 3k a go...? Healthcare needs to be not for profit. I don't disagree with you. However, if it is going to be not for profit, will there be companies who do drug R& ? They spend more on marketing now. And much of it goes to tweeting existing patents. The reality is we the people fund most r and d anyway. We should decide what to find and benefit from it.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 1, 2020 9:30:48 GMT -5
Thanks for the info, Spellbound. I am glad that it is being discussed. Hopefully, in January under a new administration, the rest of G7 will have the US on board.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 1, 2020 9:55:01 GMT -5
I don't disagree with you. However, if it is going to be not for profit, will there be companies who do drug R& ? They spend more on marketing now. And much of it goes to tweeting existing patents. The reality is we the people fund most r and d anyway. We should decide what to find and benefit from it. Any drug that is developed with federal money should have a very short patent life. But they don't.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 1, 2020 10:07:21 GMT -5
A great opportunity to show real leadership and moral compass...... in a global crisis. and neither China, Russia or the US turned up.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Jul 1, 2020 10:50:44 GMT -5
The Countries that attended the vaccine distribution conference........ UK, EU Canada, Australia Most of the G7.... wanted the treatments to go to the places most in need first. As for Vaccines... health carers and vulnerable groups first. I'm not sure what the US is doing. Our Science teams are government funded....and they have thrown the kitchen sink at this.
If you are talking elderly, possibly not. It takes elderly a higher dose vaccine more frequently to mount even a halfway decent immune response. If it takes 2-3x (my experience in trying to get an elderly animal to get any response) the vaccine amount, it might make more sense to use that dosing protecting everyone around that person. With limited amount of dosing of vaccines, making a bubble around an elderly person might be more effective for THEM.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 1, 2020 11:32:57 GMT -5
Yes I'm aware that immunity tails of the older you get. The suggestion is people who normally get a flu shot which would include asthma, diabetes, COPD, Heart problems or ongoing health problems initially...as they are more likely to die.
We don't know what sort of vaccine it will be but like you say..... if enough people in the community get it there will be less virus about.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 1, 2020 19:33:15 GMT -5
50k per worldometrrs today. A new high. Way to go. And it is just going to continue to get worse with the holiday weekend. Yeah
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Post by Opti on Jul 2, 2020 11:26:31 GMT -5
Florida continues its pace. 10,109 new cases reported today by Worldometer.
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