GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl
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Post by GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl on Mar 29, 2020 20:55:43 GMT -5
Dumb, but serious, question here: with all of this quarantining and hand-washing to avoid becoming infected with Covid-19, is it possible we are setting ourselves up for an even more virulent form of the virus down the road? Do we need to catch the virus so that we can develop life-saving antibodies? Because a vaccination is probably at least a year or two away, right? The virus isn’t going to magically go away. It will always be around. How can we self-quarantine for 2 years waiting for a vaccination?
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 29, 2020 21:02:27 GMT -5
As someone who is quickly approaching 70, I cannot take that chance.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 29, 2020 21:08:05 GMT -5
Anything is possible, but the studies so far have shown a very slow rate of mutation in the virus. I believe they’ve counted 8 genetic strains worldwide but they only differ by about 11 of 30,000 base pairs. So if and when they come up with a vaccine it ought to be good for a significant period of time.
With all the silent cases going on at some point they will have to have a general test for antibodies in your blood so they can do a simple fingerprick test to find out if you already have immunity. I do sincerely hope this damn thing manages to burn itself out in the next four weeks or so.
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GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl
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Post by GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl on Mar 29, 2020 21:09:57 GMT -5
Anything is possible, but the studies so far have shown a very slow rate of mutation in the virus. I believe they’ve counted 8 genetic strains worldwide but they only differ by about 11 of 30,000 base pairs. So if and when they come up with a vaccine it ought to be good for a significant period of time. With all the silent cases going on at some point they will have to have a general test for antibodies in your blood so they can do a simple fingerprick test to find out if you already have immunity. I do sincerely hope this damn thing manages to burn itself out in the next four weeks or so. Can it do that? Burn out? Is there a Covid-19 season similar to flu season? And if we don’t catch it this round, are we sitting ducks?
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GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl
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Post by GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl on Mar 29, 2020 21:10:43 GMT -5
As someone who is quickly approaching 70, I cannot take that chance. I understand, I do. I’m just trying to wrap my head around whether we can EVER come out of quarantine, kwim?
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Mar 29, 2020 21:11:18 GMT -5
Dumb, but serious, question here: with all of this quarantining and hand-washing to avoid becoming infected with Covid-19, is it possible we are setting ourselves up for an even more virulent form of the virus down the road? Do we need to catch the virus so that we can develop life-saving antibodies? Because a vaccination is probably at least a year or two away, right? The virus isn’t going to magically go away. It will always be around. How can we self-quarantine for 2 years waiting for a vaccination? The common cold is a corona virus. Catching a cold once does not give you unlimited protection. You can still catch a cold over and over again.
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GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl
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Post by GRG a/k/a goldenrulegirl on Mar 29, 2020 21:14:11 GMT -5
Dumb, but serious, question here: with all of this quarantining and hand-washing to avoid becoming infected with Covid-19, is it possible we are setting ourselves up for an even more virulent form of the virus down the road? Do we need to catch the virus so that we can develop life-saving antibodies? Because a vaccination is probably at least a year or two away, right? The virus isn’t going to magically go away. It will always be around. How can we self-quarantine for 2 years waiting for a vaccination? The common cold is a corona virus. Catching a cold once does not give you unlimited protection. You can still catch a cold over and over again. But the common cold doesn’t kill with the magnitude Covid-19 does, so most of us can live freely surrounded by the cold virus.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Mar 29, 2020 21:21:08 GMT -5
The common cold is a corona virus. Catching a cold once does not give you unlimited protection. You can still catch a cold over and over again. But the common cold doesn’t kill with the magnitude Covid-19 does, so most of us can live freely surrounded by the cold virus. Exactly. They're both corona viruses but one is much more lethal.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 29, 2020 21:21:56 GMT -5
It’s been speculated with some scientific basis that the virus doesn’t do as well in hot humid weather. Summer may help slow the spread (with the caveat that it’d be back in the fall).
We‘re struggling because the entire world is naive to this virus with no native immunity. By exposure we are gradually starting to build up a sub population that is immune. Hence all the talk about curve flattening: the slower we build the exposed population the better a chance our hospitals will be able to deal with patient flow. I guess burn itself out isn’t a great way to put it, but at some point the population that is immune will present a natural check on the spread. Right now if you’re infected, most people you interact with would be susceptible and turn into a carrier if infected. If they had the antibodies to shut down the infection, then they wouldn’t turn into individual virus factories. So as you start to build herd immunity, single cases can hopefully stay as single cases rather than starting a chain of new infections.
Clear as mud?
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 29, 2020 21:30:26 GMT -5
The biggest issue is the high hospitalization rate. We can’t all get this at once... we don’t have the supplies or resources or medical staff to handle all getting it at once.
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mollyc
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Post by mollyc on Mar 29, 2020 21:48:58 GMT -5
Having low risk individuals catch it to work towards herd immunity is a scenario that has been looked at, I'm sure. However, it seems that while there are parameters that say who is more likely to have the most negative outcome, it isn't written in stone in real world examples.
Last I heard, it wasn't even known if one version gives immunity to another, let alone how long immunity would last.
I suppose it could come to that but right now it isn't the best option.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 29, 2020 21:52:41 GMT -5
Well I’m 75. I’m prepared to hunker down and wait for a vaccine. If I were young and healthy I might wonder about just letting whatever happened happen. But I’d have a hard time thinking I may have passed it to others who did not survive
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Mar 29, 2020 21:56:44 GMT -5
I have also wondered how long we may have to avoid people to never get exposed. Right now I basically don't want to get sick while the hospitals are crowded. And hoping they get some ideas for treatment. If it weren't such an awful idea, I almost wish my younger, healthier kids could get a mild case of this and develop antibodies so I could safely visit them again. I heard Dr. Fauci say today that while it may die down in the summer here, that's when it will ramp up in the southern hemisphere (their cool season) and reappear here again in the fall.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 29, 2020 22:02:12 GMT -5
Well I’m 75. I’m prepared to hunker down and wait for a vaccine. If I were young and healthy I might wonder about just letting whatever happened happen. But I’d have a hard time thinking I may have passed it to others who did not survive
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 29, 2020 22:21:49 GMT -5
Having low risk individuals catch it to work towards herd immunity is a scenario that has been looked at, I'm sure. However, it seems that while there are parameters that say who is more likely to have the most negative outcome, it isn't written in stone in real world examples. Last I heard, it wasn't even known if one version gives immunity to another, let alone how long immunity would last. I suppose it could come to that but right now it isn't the best option. The novel coronavirus strains are all extremely similar. There have been a few anecdotes of people catching it a second time, but to my knowledge they are not considered credible. It is considered extremely likely that a single vaccine could protect from all strains with lasting (multiyear) coverage. Fauci commented that it was not ethical to undertake any trials which required healthy adults to be exposed to the infection since they cannot accurately predict who will develop life threatening symptoms. While people are welcome to decide to do that individually, I agree it’s not the best option. We really need widespread serological testing. Well, we really need a vaccine, but in the meantime we need serological testing for antibodies.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 29, 2020 22:29:52 GMT -5
To be clear, I’m not advocating for everyone to go catch it a la the chickenpox parties of old. I’m just looking for something that will occur anyway and hopefully help nudge us back toward normal again. It sounds very much like we may only be getting positive test results for 10-30% of cases, depending on how aggressively localities are testing, so I think the herd immunity effect is farther along than the numbers suggest.<br><br>Y‘know, in between searching for elastic and trying to figure out the best fabric to sew homemade masks out of. <img text=" " alt=" " src="https://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/ymamsmiles/idunno.gif">
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2020 22:37:19 GMT -5
I have also wondered how long we may have to avoid people to never get exposed. Right now I basically don't want to get sick while the hospitals are crowded. And hoping they get some ideas for treatment. If it weren't such an awful idea, I almost wish my younger, healthier kids could get a mild case of this and develop antibodies so I could safely visit them again. I heard Dr. Fauci say today that while it may die down in the summer here, that's when it will ramp up in the southern hemisphere (their cool season) and reappear here again in the fall. As far as I understand (and I am not educated in the medical or science fields, I just read a lot), it may slow down during the summer months. But if it does, from what I’ve read, we need to use those months to prepare for it coming back with a vengeance during fall and winter, which it’s likely to do.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 29, 2020 22:45:15 GMT -5
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Mar 30, 2020 0:30:02 GMT -5
To be clear, I’m not advocating for everyone to go catch it a la the chickenpox parties of old. I’m just looking for something that will occur anyway and hopefully help nudge us back toward normal again. It sounds very much like we may only be getting positive test results for 10-30% of cases, depending on how aggressively localities are testing, so I think the herd immunity effect is farther along than the numbers suggest.Y‘know, in between searching for elastic and trying to figure out the best fabric to sew homemade masks out of. <img text=" " alt=" " src="https://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/ymamsmiles/idunno.gif"> A lot of this depends upon how the tests are being used. Are they testing possible cases or are they testing HCP to get them out of quarantine or are they testing to determine if a patient has recovered? I think recovering needs 2 negative tests. Percentage of positive tests is not indicative of the population, but of how the tests are used. Many (most?) are not getting tested at all. They have not been testing locally for over a week. No tests available.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 30, 2020 7:07:22 GMT -5
To be clear, I’m not advocating for everyone to go catch it a la the chickenpox parties of old. I’m just looking for something that will occur anyway and hopefully help nudge us back toward normal again. It sounds very much like we may only be getting positive test results for 10-30% of cases, depending on how aggressively localities are testing, so I think the herd immunity effect is farther along than the numbers suggest.Y‘know, in between searching for elastic and trying to figure out the best fabric to sew homemade masks out of. <img text=" " alt=" " src="https://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/ymamsmiles/idunno.gif"> A lot of this depends upon how the tests are being used. Are they testing possible cases or are they testing HCP to get them out of quarantine or are they testing to determine if a patient has recovered? I think recovering needs 2 negative tests. Percentage of positive tests is not indicative of the population, but of how the tests are used. Many (most?) are not getting tested at all. They have not been testing locally for over a week. No tests available. I see I was ambiguous. I intended to convey that I think it likely only 10-30% of actual cases have been detected and reported in the official numbers. I can lay out my assumptions to get to that but not right now; math review and a wiggly 6yo await
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Mar 30, 2020 7:18:10 GMT -5
I find my brain going this direction sometimes. If all I am doing is postponing the inevitable long enough for there to be a hospital bed for me to die in come 18 months down the road then WTF is the point? I am not really interested in surviving a post apocalyptic world, I'd rather go out early.
Not logical at all but even with a media black out it's seeping into my pores and getting hard not to hear little voices in my head. It also makes it hard to get up and go to work in the morning because again WTF is the point? I make a few more millions for my company before I die?
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Mar 30, 2020 7:19:53 GMT -5
I'll be 73 in 10 days and diagnosed with CHF last July. I feel good and am not done living yet. We are being safe. Gs's are 2 houses away but we aren't having any contact. MIL is 97 with issues, 3 houses away, and we limit contact. In a rural county with only 3 cases so far. Good local hospital and also 1 hour from John's Hopkins in Baltimore.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Mar 30, 2020 8:13:27 GMT -5
I'm not spending the rest of my life in self imposed quarantine. Closing in on 70.
At some point, I will decide I can no longer go on living like this. This actually isn't living. It's barely surviving.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 8:22:00 GMT -5
I was raised in a family of 5 kids and have been pretty casual about germs and viruses. Building up immunity and all that. My 4 siblings are all alive and healthy (other than my sister's brush with breast cancer) so maybe there was something to that.
COVID-19, however, is a totally different matter. Even the most optimistic numbers I've looked at show a 1% fatality rate, the incubation period during which you can feel just fine but still transmit it is long, and our medical resources are over-stretched. I'm 67 and in otherwise excellent health, but would I get a ventilator if I needed it?
I miss my grandchildren (3 hours away by car) but I'm self-isolating except for necessary grocery runs.
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on Mar 30, 2020 8:30:26 GMT -5
There's also a lot of scientific support for the idea that viruses in general (not necessarily this one, just in general) weaken over time. Viruses that knock you on your ass tend not to get passed on because people are knocked on their ass...viruses like colds which are weak spread out because people are up and about and they spread them all over. Weak viruses tend to be more "mobile". That could easily be different here due to the long incubation period (i.e. the virus being "mobile" regardless of how strong it is).
I haven't heard anyone suggest they think the virus is going to get stronger though...meaning you're in no worse shape to delay getting it than getting it now.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Mar 30, 2020 9:14:39 GMT -5
It’s been speculated with some scientific basis that the virus doesn’t do as well in hot humid weather. Summer may help slow the spread (with the caveat that it’d be back in the fall). We‘re struggling because the entire world is naive to this virus with no native immunity. By exposure we are gradually starting to build up a sub population that is immune. Hence all the talk about curve flattening: the slower we build the exposed population the better a chance our hospitals will be able to deal with patient flow. I guess burn itself out isn’t a great way to put it, but at some point the population that is immune will present a natural check on the spread. Right now if you’re infected, most people you interact with would be susceptible and turn into a carrier if infected. If they had the antibodies to shut down the infection, then they wouldn’t turn into individual virus factories. So as you start to build herd immunity, single cases can hopefully stay as single cases rather than starting a chain of new infections. Clear as mud? I've been seeing the claim that the virus does not do well in hot, humid weather. I think it's bullshit. Human bodies are really hot and humid, and the virus is thriving in them. People are getting fevers of 105 and the virus is still continuing to spread.
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raeoflyte
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Post by raeoflyte on Mar 30, 2020 9:23:26 GMT -5
I think of it as yes, we will all catch it. We just don't want to get it at the same time.
Those most at risk are looking at self isolation until there is a vaccine.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Mar 30, 2020 9:24:56 GMT -5
I've been going at the whole situation with the assumption that eventually I will get cv19. I'm 56 and in reasonable health but I have lots of older/sick friends/relatives. My "goal" is to not spread the thing to my family/friends at this point and for myself to not get sick (in case I have a bad time with it - I live alone, or have to be hospitalized - I live alone..)
I'm viewing from the point of having a 30 year old working fine water heater and the $$ to replace it. I can just wait for it to fail (most likely at a terrible time - like January during the 10 days of horrible weather - or while I'm away from home on vacation or some other equally bad time ) OR I can proactively replace the thing at my convenience with little disruption to my life.
I'd MUCH rather get the virus when it's winding down (or atleast past it's peak). I'm hoping at that point there will be people in my life who can help me out at home if I'm really sick at home or that the hospitals won't be overflowing with patients if I need medical care. I feel I'm being "proactive" by NOT being one of the first people to get thing.
I'm hoping they come up with a test to tell if you've had the virus.... if I don't get sick I'd love to have such a test - to know if I had it or not. Like the old TB tests you had to take (to get into school, to get a job, etc).
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Mar 30, 2020 9:33:02 GMT -5
I go back and forth between are we just putting off the inevitable and it's good to delay getting it. I do currently think we are doing the right thing. We can't do what we are currently doing forever though...at some point we have to choose. It's a shitty choice. You either risk people dying from the virus or you risk people dying from economic collapse resulting in anarchy, starvation, and suicide.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 30, 2020 9:39:10 GMT -5
It’s been speculated with some scientific basis that the virus doesn’t do as well in hot humid weather. Summer may help slow the spread (with the caveat that it’d be back in the fall). We‘re struggling because the entire world is naive to this virus with no native immunity. By exposure we are gradually starting to build up a sub population that is immune. Hence all the talk about curve flattening: the slower we build the exposed population the better a chance our hospitals will be able to deal with patient flow. I guess burn itself out isn’t a great way to put it, but at some point the population that is immune will present a natural check on the spread. Right now if you’re infected, most people you interact with would be susceptible and turn into a carrier if infected. If they had the antibodies to shut down the infection, then they wouldn’t turn into individual virus factories. So as you start to build herd immunity, single cases can hopefully stay as single cases rather than starting a chain of new infections. Clear as mud? I've been seeing the claim that the virus does not do well in hot, humid weather. I think it's bullshit. Human bodies are really hot and humid, and the virus is thriving in them. People are getting fevers of 105 and the virus is still continuing to spread. My understanding is that New Orleans is hot and humid, as well as Atlanta. They were whenever I've been there. Are they not so much yet this time of year?
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