teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Apr 23, 2020 15:03:01 GMT -5
They've begun random antibody testing in my region. I'm waiting to see what the numbers look like, to get an idea of the real % in this area. Locally, testing is low. Most of the testing has been sucked into the epicenter in NYC, understandably. So while statewide numbers are declining, that's essentially all NYC influenced. A vocal subset of locals are champing at the bit to open up our region, 'cuz we're not NYC, our numbers are low, don't make us wait for a statewide all clear signal. While our numbers are relatively low, they are still climbing, locally. The experts are saying mid-May to mid-June before we hit the peak, let alone decline. And remember, my region began shut down with the first confirmed cases (from NYC and Italy), while NYC had cases 2 weeks before us. Kept local numbers relatively low, but maybe that created a false sense of security? NYC's rapid pace of cases probably made staying home more urgent. I caught parts of Cuomo's press conference today; he had results from the antibody testing. NYC was showing 21.2% had antibodies. Upstate was showing 3.6%. They deliberately tested people outside of grocery stores, didn't tell anyone about the sites in advance. They wanted to get people who were out and about in the community (shoppers), but not workers (especially essential workers), and not those hiding away at home. The locations identified locally (after the fact by local news stations) were in the zip codes with some of the highest confirmed numbers, at Wegmans in Amherst (near the SUNY flagship campus) and Tops on the WS/OP border, and someplace in the city of Buffalo (don't recall). linkThe race breakdown percentages reflect where those races live, more so than which races are more affected. Hispanic, AA, mixed races were all roughly showing 22% had antibodies, with whites showing 9%. But the Hispanic etc numbers were primarily NYC, while the upstate numbers skewed more white.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 23, 2020 15:17:55 GMT -5
Michigan's numbers have been trending downward for a while. New cases per day peaked about 20 days ago and new deaths per day about 12 days ago. (I say "about" because I had to rip those numbers from a poorly captioned graph.) That's the good news. While both metrics have declined, they are declining agonizingly slowly and from a distressingly high number. New deaths jump around a lot due to reporting issues and have not come down at the same rate as new cases. On bad days, you sometimes wonder if they are coming down at all. A distressingly large percentage of the new deaths are reported after a positive test result is matched to a death certificate that does not list COVID-19 as a cause of death.
Michigan has a pretty high positivity rate that indicates rationing of testing, so I am reluctant to put much faith in new case numbers. New cases would doubtlessly go up if we tested more.
It's really hard to get a handle on how many swabs or samples are being taken each day and how long it is taking to get results to the patient, the county public health department, or to the state. Lab testing results are updated less frequently than daily, so if we are testing more, it hasn't shown up in the data that I'm seeing yet.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 23, 2020 15:29:57 GMT -5
Michigan's numbers have been trending downward for a while. New cases per day peaked about 20 days ago and new deaths per day about 12 days ago. (I say "about" because I had to rip those numbers from a poorly captioned graph.) That's the good news. While both metrics have declined, they are declining agonizingly slowly and from a distressingly high number. New deaths jump around a lot due to reporting issues and have not come down at the same rate as new cases. On bad days, you sometimes wonder if they are coming down at all. A distressingly large percentage of the new deaths are reported after a positive test result is matched to a death certificate that does not list COVID-19 as a cause of death.
Michigan has a pretty high positivity rate that indicates rationing of testing, so I am reluctant to put much faith in new case numbers. New cases would doubtlessly go up if we tested more.
It's really hard to get a handle on how many swabs or samples are being taken each day and how long it is taking to get results to the patient, the county public health department, or to the state. Lab testing results are updated less frequently than daily, so if we are testing more, it hasn't shown up in the data that I'm seeing yet.
This is why hospital admissions for respiratory illness/respiratory failure is helpful in tracking. If admissions are staying high, then you know your cases are still high. It is less dependent on testing, because hospitals will test inpatients because they have to in order treat the patient correctly, isolate them, decide about PPE needs, etc. Less incentive to hide cases. Now if the state won't report that, then they are trying to hide something
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 23, 2020 15:30:42 GMT -5
Iowa is going up quite rapidly. Mostly, as far as they are testing, in manufacturing workers. Shocker, I tell you, considering how many meat plants we have in the state. When you treat your employees as disposable this is what happens. This pandemic is pulling back the curtain on a hell of a lot of ugly in our society.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Apr 23, 2020 15:36:34 GMT -5
Iowa is going up quite rapidly. Mostly, as far as they are testing, in manufacturing workers. Shocker, I tell you, considering how many meat plants we have in the state. When you treat your employees as disposable this is what happens. This pandemic is pulling back the curtain on a hell of a lot of ugly in our society. Also showing that the governor is still reactive and not proactive. The Black Hawk County daily press conference is on tv now. That's where the Tyson Waterloo plant is located. Their Public Health Director says there will be many deaths and more cases in the coming days and to STAY HOME. She also had the decency to offer her thoughts and prayers to the families of the deceased.
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Apr 23, 2020 15:53:47 GMT -5
I have been tracking reported cases in my county only. Since this week we are (supposedly) the first county in the US to have a fatality due to COVID19 on Feb 6th. We were part of the group of counties that were the first to implement SIP in the US.
For weeks daily new recorded cases were in the 50+ range. For a week now that number has been going down to 20-25/day. Number of hospitalized patients is going down very slowly as well, and by more than the number of fatalities, so may have flattened the curve. Now to see if we actually bend in downward. Too early to tell IMO
I am now nearing the completion of the 6th week of WFH and tired of it, but if it helps I like most others will stay in
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 23, 2020 15:59:49 GMT -5
Iowa is going up quite rapidly. Mostly, as far as they are testing, in manufacturing workers. Shocker, I tell you, considering how many meat plants we have in the state. When you treat your employees as disposable this is what happens. This pandemic is pulling back the curtain on a hell of a lot of ugly in our society. Also showing that the governor is still reactive and not proactive. The Black Hawk County daily press conference is on tv now. That's where the Tyson Waterloo plant is located. Their Public Health Director says there will be many deaths and more cases in the coming days and to STAY HOME. She also had the decency to offer her thoughts and prayers to the families of the deceased. CB's plant is up to three KNOWN cases. Omaha is somewhere in that range too. Mostly line workers which DH said he's not surprised about at all, they are treated as completely disposable. A lot of them, at least at the plant DH worked at, had no clue about their rights and were too scared to say anything. It's disgusting in the "best" of times. There is a special spot in hell for these companies and the way they treat employees. But don't worry the higher ups of these companies are totally safe! That's what matters. Glad DH is out of that industry.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 23, 2020 16:05:12 GMT -5
Michigan's numbers have been trending downward for a while. New cases per day peaked about 20 days ago and new deaths per day about 12 days ago. (I say "about" because I had to rip those numbers from a poorly captioned graph.) That's the good news. While both metrics have declined, they are declining agonizingly slowly and from a distressingly high number. New deaths jump around a lot due to reporting issues and have not come down at the same rate as new cases. On bad days, you sometimes wonder if they are coming down at all. A distressingly large percentage of the new deaths are reported after a positive test result is matched to a death certificate that does not list COVID-19 as a cause of death.
Michigan has a pretty high positivity rate that indicates rationing of testing, so I am reluctant to put much faith in new case numbers. New cases would doubtlessly go up if we tested more.
It's really hard to get a handle on how many swabs or samples are being taken each day and how long it is taking to get results to the patient, the county public health department, or to the state. Lab testing results are updated less frequently than daily, so if we are testing more, it hasn't shown up in the data that I'm seeing yet.
This is why hospital admissions for respiratory illness/respiratory failure is helpful in tracking. If admissions are staying high, then you know your cases are still high. It is less dependent on testing, because hospitals will test inpatients because they have to in order treat the patient correctly, isolate them, decide about PPE needs, etc. Less incentive to hide cases. Now if the state won't report that, then they are trying to hide something My local hospital will not report this. Others in the state owned by the same chain, are. I don't know why.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 23, 2020 16:12:30 GMT -5
This is why hospital admissions for respiratory illness/respiratory failure is helpful in tracking. If admissions are staying high, then you know your cases are still high. It is less dependent on testing, because hospitals will test inpatients because they have to in order treat the patient correctly, isolate them, decide about PPE needs, etc. Less incentive to hide cases. Now if the state won't report that, then they are trying to hide something My local hospital will not report this. Others in the state owned by the same chain, are. I don't know why. For some reason, someone wants to hide it. Unfortunate, since accurate information is the only way to be able to plan how to survive this.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 23, 2020 16:36:26 GMT -5
Also showing that the governor is still reactive and not proactive. The Black Hawk County daily press conference is on tv now. That's where the Tyson Waterloo plant is located. Their Public Health Director says there will be many deaths and more cases in the coming days and to STAY HOME. She also had the decency to offer her thoughts and prayers to the families of the deceased. CB's plant is up to three KNOWN cases. Omaha is somewhere in that range too. Mostly line workers which DH said he's not surprised about at all, they are treated as completely disposable. A lot of them, at least at the plant DH worked at, had no clue about their rights and were too scared to say anything. It's disgusting in the "best" of times. There is a special spot in hell for these companies and the way they treat employees. But don't worry the higher ups of these companies are totally safe! That's what matters. Glad DH is out of that industry. Three known is probably an obscene under-count, a deliberate under-count, a deliberately slow-walked nonsense number. The best way for essential workers to counteract this deadly horse-poo is to create communication channels that do not have anything to do with their companies. I'm talking about communication channels that do not rely on being at work (where private conversation has become increasingly difficult), or leaving the house at all (because that is off the table once you are instructed to self-isolate or quarantine), or leaving a trail of text that some hired gun will use against you. This is a really good time to be exchanging telephone numbers with coworkers, even the ones that you do not like.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 23, 2020 16:46:17 GMT -5
My local hospital will not report this. Others in the state owned by the same chain, are. I don't know why. For some reason, someone wants to hide it. Unfortunate, since accurate information is the only way to be able to plan how to survive this. There was a bit of a shit show over lack of PPE, now some fallout over the whistleblower on the PPE issue getting fired. They were in a downsizing situation before all this, so I'm not completely surprised.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Apr 23, 2020 18:20:28 GMT -5
Also showing that the governor is still reactive and not proactive. The Black Hawk County daily press conference is on tv now. That's where the Tyson Waterloo plant is located. Their Public Health Director says there will be many deaths and more cases in the coming days and to STAY HOME. She also had the decency to offer her thoughts and prayers to the families of the deceased. CB's plant is up to three KNOWN cases. Omaha is somewhere in that range too. Mostly line workers which DH said he's not surprised about at all, they are treated as completely disposable. A lot of them, at least at the plant DH worked at, had no clue about their rights and were too scared to say anything. It's disgusting in the "best" of times. There is a special spot in hell for these companies and the way they treat employees. But don't worry the higher ups of these companies are totally safe! That's what matters. Glad DH is out of that industry. If the CB plant is like the one is Waterloo, there are probably hundreds of cases. I don't know how it happened, but the city and county got heavily involved. The governor had nothing to do with the plant closing to get cleaned up. It was the pressure from the city and county. Yes, the line workers are expendable. They put cardboard between them, not plexiglass and, of course, not 6 ft apart. As you know, they work shoulder to shoulder. Lulac also got involved as did former union members to get the plant closed.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2020 9:05:54 GMT -5
MN is starting to open non-essential businesses on Monday. They're limiting to industrial, manufacturing and office. Not retail or service where they're in close contact with customers. Not sure how many people that entails in my area.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 24, 2020 9:19:45 GMT -5
Is there a graph available after April 1st? I added up current numbers quickly. Total US deaths is about half of these combined countries. As happai pointed out, is it appropriate to start these two graphs on the same date? The US time line has always lagged Europe. I did see another one where they started at the same point, which was the day they had 100 deaths. The curves were very similar. I can't find that one now.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 24, 2020 15:03:10 GMT -5
Iowa and Nebraska are starting to move forward with reopening by May 4th (not that we actually closed but hey, semantics). That is next Saturday. I'll go ahead and stick it out if I can until May 31st that will show how many of the eager beavers get sick. I honestly think we are getting over confident, especially with the outbreaks now springing up in the meat packing plants. It's not that we are somehow doing better, it's we likely haven't peaked yet as it makes it way across the nation. I get businesses are hurting but they are going to hurt a hell of a lot more if we end up killing off a lot of their customer base. I will admit I am torn on dental offices and elective surgery. There are things that likely can be monitored just fine now but who knows where your issues will be in a few weeks/months from now? At some point we do have to start treating everyone else's issues. I sure as heck would not be one of the first people in the door though if I could avoid it. Hope that doctors/dentists take a lot of time discussing the risks/benefits with their patients. Also as someone who is an essential worker but not a doctor/nurse/EMT/fireman/policeman I am also torn on daycare. The one we use is strictly limited to only those people and I don't blame them. I also don't blame the other city daycares for not accepting new clients at this time. I don't want to put workers or other kids at risk. But my employer doesn't give a crap and they aren't going to work with employees forever, especially as they push to reopen things. We'll see what DH's employer has to say in the coming weeks about having to go into the office.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Apr 24, 2020 15:19:19 GMT -5
As you know, numbers in Iowa are on the rise. Deaths are on the rise. I don't know how the "governor" makes decisions but it isn't based on anything she has said in the past.
Most likely donor $$$ and pressure.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 24, 2020 15:24:11 GMT -5
Yeah the CB plant has three "known" cases, that doesn't account for everyone they may have exposed yet. Nope my behind is not going to the Farmer's Market in Bayliss Park. I will keep getting my Farmfresh box for now thank you.
Same with Omaha. I don't have a choice but to go to work, DH will likely need to report back before the month too. We DO have a choice in what we do with our free time. I'll wait. I am in absolutely no hurry to go out to eat again now that I have discovered the wonders of delivery web sites.
My family business has always been take out from the start so I'm no more exposed than I was before they started opening things up in that regard. Dad said that ended up being a blessing in disguise for sure. So not a lot of concern there.
I'm guessing DH will need to wear a mask to work in the office so I need to find a T-shirt to sacrifice to make bands for his. Better to be prepared I suppose.
If we do start going out it would likely not be until June/July possibly even August.
I know at some point I will have to start living again. I just don't want to be caught in the second wave brought on by all the people who can't hold their horses long enough to even determine if the state has peaked yet. I'd like to beat it for as long as I can.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 24, 2020 15:48:55 GMT -5
As you know, numbers in Iowa are on the rise. Deaths are on the rise. I don't know how the "governor" makes decisions but it isn't based on anything she has said in the past. Most likely donor $$$ and pressure. That and trying to get all those people who applied for UE recently off before they have a chance to start fully collecting. If things are open then the state can claim there is no reason for you to not be applying therefore no check for you this week.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 24, 2020 17:14:24 GMT -5
Yeah the CB plant has three "known" cases, that doesn't account for everyone they may have exposed yet. Nope my behind is not going to the Farmer's Market in Bayliss Park. I will keep getting my Farmfresh box for now thank you. Same with Omaha. I don't have a choice but to go to work, DH will likely need to report back before the month too. We DO have a choice in what we do with our free time. I'll wait. I am in absolutely no hurry to go out to eat again now that I have discovered the wonders of delivery web sites. My family business has always been take out from the start so I'm no more exposed than I was before they started opening things up in that regard. Dad said that ended up being a blessing in disguise for sure. So not a lot of concern there. I'm guessing DH will need to wear a mask to work in the office so I need to find a T-shirt to sacrifice to make bands for his. Better to be prepared I suppose. If we do start going out it would likely not be until June/July possibly even August. I know at some point I will have to start living again. I just don't want to be caught in the second wave brought on by all the people who can't hold their horses long enough to even determine if the state has peaked yet. I'd like to beat it for as long as I can. I know people think I am a wackadoo (maybe I am) but eating out is probably one of the things I would consider doing as long as the restaurant was extremely clean and used proper protocols. I actually would feel more comfortable doing that then going to the grocery store. My main thing right now is crowds and closeness to a lot of people. I have noticed way too many jackasses in the grocery stores who don't seem to give a crap about social distancing. I was in Target on Monday, I go there because it is less crowded, and this couple came right up behind me while I was getting some frozen raspberries. She tried to reach over top of me to get something and he talking to her saying "I really want a beer." Hmmm...okay. it's 11am but whatever...I felt like kickboxing both of them across the room. One thing I will probably not do for a long time is clothes shopping. I have to try on everything because I wear different sizes depending on how it is made. Also, things look way different on me than they do online. I tried clothes shopping online and it just doesn't work for me. I can't see me going into a store and trying stuff on though for a really long time. The thought of other people that might be infected trying on those same clothes gives me the creeps. Luckily, since all I have worn the past 5 weeks is yoga pants I'll pretty much feel like I have a whole new wardrobe anyway once I start back to work again.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Apr 25, 2020 8:17:05 GMT -5
What actually concerns me most, in all of this opening up talk...is that we're not hearing anything concrete yet from child care providers/camps/etc about how they are handling taking care of kids. Employers can demand employees go back to work all they want. They can't insist that kids 0-11 are completely alone for 8-10 hours a day so that folks can work....
One of the places I teach at is starting to grapple with what care might look like. I think in the end, they are going to have increased costs..how severe depends on which gate we are at. We're still in gate 1 (maybe we're not even there yet). No groups bigger than 10. That means extra teachers are going to have to be hired, extra space must be rented or extra equipment must be purchased (like room dividers). Extra cleaning supplies will need to be purchased. Extra games, playthings will need to be purchased. There's no taking the kids to the free local splash pad. On and on it goes. I have NO idea how scout camp (either cubs or scouts) is going to be handled yet. In a good week, they have 200 folks sign up. Meals would again have to be altered. Sleeping arrangements the whole 9 years.
We're priming DD1 to get her name out as a summer sitter. I think she could make good money and fill a legit need.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 11:13:42 GMT -5
(I have the hardest time quoting - so it's on the bottom... lol ) The other major issue is as soon as your state tells people they "can" open back up, then all of those people are no longer eligible for UI. This is a big issue because people will/are being forced to either open up or lose UI because they can "technically" work and at that point not working has supposedly become "personal choice". And, not having daycare doesn't qualify you for UI though it's a serious issue. Since NONE of the SE/1099 folks in Oregon have been granted UI yet and the first payment is said to be a month away for the first group of people approved, many will open back up or go back to work because they have no choice - scared or high-risk be damned. I anticipate a massive outbreak and then more closings/applications ignored for UI and for this cycle to continue for a while. How could it not? What actually concerns me most, in all of this opening up talk...is that we're not hearing anything concrete yet from child care providers/camps/etc about how they are handling taking care of kids. Employers can demand employees go back to work all they want. They can't insist that kids 0-11 are completely alone for 8-10 hours a day so that folks can work....
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 25, 2020 11:24:49 GMT -5
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azucena
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Post by azucena on Apr 25, 2020 11:50:59 GMT -5
The 20ish% infection rate in NYC is being touted as representative of what we might expect everywhere which common sense should tell us is likely not true. Population density has to be considered. Folks here in Stl don't seem to understand that at all. Yet again lowering my faith in humanity.
DH's daycare is planning to open may 15. The only safeguard in place so far is that parents will drop off outside and not be allowed in to curb the spread of germs. Meanwhile little Joey is carrying his family's germs and exposure contacts inside to mix with little susie's and others who then carry that home at the end of the day.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 25, 2020 12:09:24 GMT -5
The 20ish% infection rate in NYC is being touted as representative of what we might expect everywhere which common sense should tell us is likely not true. Population density has to be considered. Folks here in Stl don't seem to understand that at all. Yet again lowering my faith in humanity. DH's daycare is planning to open may 15. The only safeguard in place so far is that parents will drop off outside and not be allowed in to curb the spread of germs. Meanwhile little Joey is carrying his family's germs and exposure contacts inside to mix with little susie's and others who then carry that home at the end of the day. Yes, the infection rate in nyc will be higher than than anywhere else because their outbreak was so severe. If you haven’t had the same experience, there is no way you could have a rate approaching that. Anyone eho thinks otherwise is just hoping. And if elected officials think that they are either stupid or willing to risk lives despite knowing better
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azucena
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Post by azucena on Apr 25, 2020 12:41:17 GMT -5
It's alarming and disheartening to so clearly see the lack of common sense, critical thinking skills, and plain old average intelligence.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 25, 2020 12:59:10 GMT -5
The 20ish% infection rate in NYC is being touted as representative of what we might expect everywhere which common sense should tell us is likely not true. Population density has to be considered. Folks here in Stl don't seem to understand that at all. Yet again lowering my faith in humanity. DH's daycare is planning to open may 15. The only safeguard in place so far is that parents will drop off outside and not be allowed in to curb the spread of germs. Meanwhile little Joey is carrying his family's germs and exposure contacts inside to mix with little susie's and others who then carry that home at the end of the day. Yes, the infection rate in nyc will be higher than than anywhere else because their outbreak was so severe. If you haven’t had the same experience, there is no way you could have a rate approaching that. Anyone eho thinks otherwise is just hoping. And if elected officials think that they are either stupid or willing to risk lives despite knowing better That is, unless this infection has been going around much longer than thought. I was reading an account by a physician who was talking about some strange disease he saw in mid Jan through Feb. He did a flu test on all of them, and they came back negative. Towards the end of his when covid testing became available, he couldn't get anyone tested because none of them fell under the CDC's recommendations for testing. Right now, they are looking at deaths back in early Feb. long before the first established case/death in the US to determine if the virus was circulating much earlier than they thought. At this point, I am wondering if the flu study has gone back and tested their early samples that they got stopped from testing. Not only that, it would be interesting to see if they also collected blood for the study (which would not be uncommon) and look for the presence of IgM antibodies. As a side note, on the news yesterday I noted that the Red Cross is finally going to be screening the blood bank for antibodies. I think that that might give a better picture as to what is happening. I know that when I was using the blood bank for getting samples. However, blood expires in 6 weeks, so they are probably going to be missing that window and there is going to be an incredible loss of potential information. Dammit!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 25, 2020 14:13:24 GMT -5
Yes, the infection rate in nyc will be higher than than anywhere else because their outbreak was so severe. If you haven’t had the same experience, there is no way you could have a rate approaching that. Anyone eho thinks otherwise is just hoping. And if elected officials think that they are either stupid or willing to risk lives despite knowing better That is, unless this infection has been going around much longer than thought. I was reading an account by a physician who was talking about some strange disease he saw in mid Jan through Feb. He did a flu test on all of them, and they came back negative. Towards the end of his when covid testing became available, he couldn't get anyone tested because none of them fell under the CDC's recommendations for testing. Right now, they are looking at deaths back in early Feb. long before the first established case/death in the US to determine if the virus was circulating much earlier than they thought. At this point, I am wondering if the flu study has gone back and tested their early samples that they got stopped from testing. Not only that, it would be interesting to see if they also collected blood for the study (which would not be uncommon) and look for the presence of IgM antibodies. As a side note, on the news yesterday I noted that the Red Cross is finally going to be screening the blood bank for antibodies. I think that that might give a better picture as to what is happening. I know that when I was using the blood bank for getting samples. However, blood expires in 6 weeks, so they are probably going to be missing that window and there is going to be an incredible loss of potential information. Dammit! Given the way this explodes, if it was around earlier than mid January anywhere other than the west coast I would be surprised. It definitely hasn’t been in the Midwest that long. We are at the higher end of infections and I nor anyone around here believe we saw this before last month. Blood bank samples would be an interesting study though
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Deleted
Joined: May 20, 2024 22:32:31 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 14:14:45 GMT -5
While anecdotal, back in Jan when I was staying with my mom in the CA Central Valley area, she was seriously ill twice with a bad cold or flu that I never caught. It was weird because I tend to catch everything.
The second time she got sick, she coughed and hacked for nearly 3 weeks.
I'd be curious if either of us has the antibodies.
Then again, today CNN is reporting there is no immunity because you can get it more than once. Hardly the only report of that, but the first I am hearing by US news.
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teen persuasion
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:49 GMT -5
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Post by teen persuasion on Apr 25, 2020 14:20:47 GMT -5
The 20ish% infection rate in NYC is being touted as representative of what we might expect everywhere which common sense should tell us is likely not true. Population density has to be considered. Folks here in Stl don't seem to understand that at all. Yet again lowering my faith in humanity. DH's daycare is planning to open may 15. The only safeguard in place so far is that parents will drop off outside and not be allowed in to curb the spread of germs. Meanwhile little Joey is carrying his family's germs and exposure contacts inside to mix with little susie's and others who then carry that home at the end of the day. That 20% was ONLY in NYC. Statewide average was 13%. Long Island was 11 or 13%, Westchester similar, and the rest of the state was 3.6%. Our numbers are getting high here (second largest city, far distant to NYC), especially compared to similar size/type of city like Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Our numbers are larger than those 2 combined. But that 3.6% number came from people tested here (in communities with the highest local confirmed cases), last weekend. So I think the real number is probably lower in other regions right now (outside of hotspots).
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teen persuasion
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:49 GMT -5
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Post by teen persuasion on Apr 25, 2020 14:41:42 GMT -5
What actually concerns me most, in all of this opening up talk...is that we're not hearing anything concrete yet from child care providers/camps/etc about how they are handling taking care of kids. Employers can demand employees go back to work all they want. They can't insist that kids 0-11 are completely alone for 8-10 hours a day so that folks can work....
One of the places I teach at is starting to grapple with what care might look like. I think in the end, they are going to have increased costs..how severe depends on which gate we are at. We're still in gate 1 (maybe we're not even there yet). No groups bigger than 10. That means extra teachers are going to have to be hired, extra space must be rented or extra equipment must be purchased (like room dividers). Extra cleaning supplies will need to be purchased. Extra games, playthings will need to be purchased. There's no taking the kids to the free local splash pad. On and on it goes. I have NO idea how scout camp (either cubs or scouts) is going to be handled yet. In a good week, they have 200 folks sign up. Meals would again have to be altered. Sleeping arrangements the whole 9 years.
We're priming DD1 to get her name out as a summer sitter. I think she could make good money and fill a legit need. A few days ago, Cuomo was talking about the push to reopen. He flat out stated that the first step is opening the schools, because many can't work until kids are back in school. So until schools can reopen safely, there's no reopening anything else (except perhaps non-emergency medical services). He'd already closed schools until at least May 15. But there's a lot of pressure to either declare the school year over, or set a date to reopen school before the official end of the year June 25 (Regents are already cancelled). He's painted into a corner - he's been wisely setting dates a limited amount of time in the future, and we'll reevaluate then, rather than set an unrealistic date. If he tried to set a realistic date, he'd have to say the truth, we can't reopen before July, if then. He'd have a mutiny on his hands from those that just can't wait that long, and all the social distancing would fall to pieces. So he keeps pushing the date out a bit at a time, keeping the antsy in check a little bit longer. But the reasonable adults want to make plans, even if it's long term, and the schools are in limbo, so the teachers and administrators and staff and students and parents are all in limbo, too. So they are getting antsy, too, pushing for a resolution to the is school resuming or is it done question (especially the ones who are both administrators and parents).
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