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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 12:25:32 GMT -5
I haven't been able to read anything lately as springtime is equipment/maintenance time. I'm usually self quarantined for about 6 weeks this time of year anyway, lol. So we are not using the WHO guidelines ? Is there any company that's domestic, that's already in position to produce a test ? Being a novel virus, there really wouldn't be anyone who exactly has a lot of experience/knowledge producing the test. Even outside the US. No tests have been developed now. The reason we have not tested in the numbers that other countries have is we decided not to take Care WHO help and decided to produce our own. We then ran into difficulties with development of the tests, setting us back further. We also did not fast track tests being developed by labs in the US. Consequence of the lack of leadership and urgency that the POTIS exhibited. Again leadership matters. If he treated it as a crisis in the first place, when it started, we may be more like South Korea, instead of trending toward Italy. Thousands will die e, and it is possible we could have ameliorated it if we treated it as serious as the situation has become Political it is, for the blame game...
I can't help but notice what states seem to be having all the problems.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:28:00 GMT -5
Again, this is all wishful thinking at present. This drug has never been shown to have antiviral effects in the past. It is most commonly used for its anti-inflammatory effects. Color me skeptical about its ability to affect this pandemic in a significant way Seems to me I recall chloroquine had some nasty retinal side-effects. It's been around forever, though. I'm looking for something else I think I remember reading (it's been awhile) about azithromycin having some mild effect on viral load but haven't been able to find the information I'm looking for. No it is typically used for its anti-inflammatory effects. Used for a rare vindicated panbronchiolitis. Also used as an adjunct treatment for COPD exacerbation. Can be used as a chronic treatment to prevent exacerbation sin COPD patients, but have never seen anything about antiviral effects. Based on its mechanism of action, I am skeptical it has any antiviral effect
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:29:36 GMT -5
No tests have been developed now. The reason we have not tested in the numbers that other countries have is we decided not to take Care WHO help and decided to produce our own. We then ran into difficulties with development of the tests, setting us back further. We also did not fast track tests being developed by labs in the US. Consequence of the lack of leadership and urgency that the POTIS exhibited. Again leadership matters. If he treated it as a crisis in the first place, when it started, we may be more like South Korea, instead of trending toward Italy. Thousands will die e, and it is possible we could have ameliorated it if we treated it as serious as the situation has become Political it is, for the blame game...
I can't help but notice what states seem to be having all the problems.
Sure because viruses infect people based on ideology. West Virginia kept on claiming it had no cases. Can’t find something you are not looking for
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:30:16 GMT -5
I did read some good news. A Canadian doctor with a PhD in diaphragmatic mechanics found a way to allow one ventilator to serve 9 patients. If a small hospital has 10 ventilators, this would allow them to treat 90 patients. That's a big, damned deal since we're going to be short of ventilators if we keep going the way we're going. In the meantime, GTech will make 1000 ventilators/day and other manufacturers (including automobile manufacturers) are also making ventilators. A number of companies are making masks and there's a formula online to make masks with 3D printers. Anheuser-Bush is making hand sanitizer. We're getting the ball rolling; albeit, more than a little bit late.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 12:33:12 GMT -5
Political it is, for the blame game...
I can't help but notice what states seem to be having all the problems.
Sure because viruses infect people based on ideology. West Virginia kept on claiming it had no cases. Can’t find something you are not looking for Or the leadership in those states.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:33:34 GMT -5
I did read some good news. A Canadian doctor with a PhD in diaphragmatic mechanics found a way to allow one ventilator to serve 9 patients. If a small hospital has 10 ventilators, this would allow them to treat 90 patients. That's a big, damned deal since we're going to be short of ventilators if we keep going the way we're going. In the meantime, GTech will make 1000 ventilators/day and other manufacturers (including automobile manufacturers) are also making ventilators. A number of companies are making masks and there's a formula online to make masks with 3D printers. Anheuser-Bush is making hand sanitizer. We're getting the ball rolling; albeit, more than a little bit late. Interesting. Having a hard time imagining it.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:35:31 GMT -5
Sure because viruses infect people based on ideology. West Virginia kept on claiming it had no cases. Can’t find something you are not looking for Or the leadership in those states. Continue to deflect. Nothing to do with population density, number of internal flights, transportation hubs, or a myriad of other factors that are important from an epidemiological standpoint. Has to be political
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:36:27 GMT -5
I did read some good news. A Canadian doctor with a PhD in diaphragmatic mechanics found a way to allow one ventilator to serve 9 patients. If a small hospital has 10 ventilators, this would allow them to treat 90 patients. That's a big, damned deal since we're going to be short of ventilators if we keep going the way we're going. In the meantime, GTech will make 1000 ventilators/day and other manufacturers (including automobile manufacturers) are also making ventilators. A number of companies are making masks and there's a formula online to make masks with 3D printers. Anheuser-Bush is making hand sanitizer. We're getting the ball rolling; albeit, more than a little bit late. Interesting. Having a hard time imagining it. So did I, doc. I knew a ventilator could serve more than one patient in a pinch (got that from a young pulmonologist several years ago) but had no idea this kind of thing was possible. It really is hard to visualize. I'm trying to find more information with a better picture, if possible. If I can find it, I'll share it here and tag you.
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:40:50 GMT -5
Interesting. Having a hard time imagining it. So did I, doc. I knew a ventilator could serve more than one patient in a pinch (got that from a young pulmonologist several years ago) but had no idea this kind of thing was possible. It really is hard to visualize. I'm trying to find more information with a better picture, if possible. If I can find it, I'll share it here and tag you. Wondering how you control all the settings for each individual patient. Sick people on ventilators require some intensive support and adjustments to settings, no ne size fits all. So would like to see if that is possible
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:41:51 GMT -5
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:43:11 GMT -5
So did I, doc. I knew a ventilator could serve more than one patient in a pinch (got that from a young pulmonologist several years ago) but had no idea this kind of thing was possible. It really is hard to visualize. I'm trying to find more information with a better picture, if possible. If I can find it, I'll share it here and tag you. Wondering how you control all the settings for each individual patient. Sick people on ventilators require some intensive support and adjustments to settings, no ne size fits all. So would like to see if that is possible The article I found says the patients must be of roughly the same size and lung capacity; however, like you I'm still wondering about the logistics of all this!
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:45:57 GMT -5
Interesting, thanks. Not real flexible, but in a crisis it may work. Problem becomes, what happens if one o them decompensates
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:49:04 GMT -5
Continue to deflect. Nothing to do with population density, number of internal flights, transportation hubs, or a myriad of other factors that are important from an epidemiological standpoint. Has to be political
And in other posts you ask how it got here...
I thought is was Trumps leadership.
No it’s not. As I have said, he may not be able to make it better, but he could make it worse. In my opinion, he has handled it poorly, and he has downplayed it from the beginning. If Cuomo is responsible for this, then trump gets the overall responsibility, right. He’s in charge
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 12:50:18 GMT -5
Or the leadership in those states. Continue to deflect. Nothing to do with population density, number of internal flights, transportation hubs, or a myriad of other factors that are important from an epidemiological standpoint. Has to be political And in other posts you ask how it got here... "In addition, if our president was so effective, how come the disease is here"
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:52:11 GMT -5
Interesting, thanks. Not real flexible, but in a crisis it may work. Problem becomes, what happens if one o them decompensates I'd had the same thought but, then, kinda corrected myself. It's a hell of a lot better to have a chance than to have no chance. I'm hoping more information becomes available on this. Even without a pandemic, if this is really viable it could be a Godsend for small, rural hospitals until they could transfer the patient. Things can get hairy for them even with a "normal" flu outbreak.
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:54:28 GMT -5
Interesting, thanks. Not real flexible, but in a crisis it may work. Problem becomes, what happens if one o them decompensates I'd had the same thought but, then, kinda corrected myself. It's a hell of a lot better to have a chance than to have no chance. I'm hoping more information becomes available on this. Even without a pandemic, if this is really viable it could be a Godsend for small, rural hospitals until they could transfer the patient. Things can get hairy for them even with a "normal" flu outbreak. For the short term maybe, but it opens up a can of worms if it is used for longer, what do you do if one gets worse, how do you get someone off, etc
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:54:51 GMT -5
Continue to deflect. Nothing to do with population density, number of internal flights, transportation hubs, or a myriad of other factors that are important from an epidemiological standpoint. Has to be political And in other posts you ask how it got here... "In addition, if our president was so effective, how come the disease is here" C'mon, jma. You're a smart dude. You know that question was rhetorical.
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Post by mmhmm on Mar 22, 2020 12:56:34 GMT -5
I'd had the same thought but, then, kinda corrected myself. It's a hell of a lot better to have a chance than to have no chance. I'm hoping more information becomes available on this. Even without a pandemic, if this is really viable it could be a Godsend for small, rural hospitals until they could transfer the patient. Things can get hairy for them even with a "normal" flu outbreak. For the short term maybe, but it opens up a can of worms if it is used for longer, what do you do if one gets worse, how do you get someone off, etc That's the kind of thing I hope will be clarified in future articles. I'm on this like white on rice. I'm beyond curious!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 12:56:39 GMT -5
Continue to deflect. Nothing to do with population density, number of internal flights, transportation hubs, or a myriad of other factors that are important from an epidemiological standpoint. Has to be political And in other posts you ask how it got here... "In addition, if our president was so effective, how come the disease is here" No I was answering you ridiculous comment about Cuomo. So again, if you criticize Cuomo, you really have to criticize trump, since he is president
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 22, 2020 13:11:09 GMT -5
Senator Rand Paul has now confirmed he tested positive for the virus.
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 22, 2020 13:38:21 GMT -5
It’s obvious New York is testing now. 12,000+ new cases so far today...
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 22, 2020 14:21:42 GMT -5
It’s obvious New York is testing now. 12,000+ new cases so far today... at this rate, we will catch up with Italy in a couple of days in terms of open cases.
and remember: we are weeks behind them on the curve.
Italy will pass 1000/M on their infection rate this weekend. that is 0.1% we will be expressing these numbers in % soon.
I think the thing that is most alarming is the death rate. has the WHO revised it's mortality projections?
because it looks way more serious than 2% to me.
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Post by Opti on Mar 22, 2020 14:28:19 GMT -5
No tests have been developed now. The reason we have not tested in the numbers that other countries have is we decided not to take Care WHO help and decided to produce our own. We then ran into difficulties with development of the tests, setting us back further. We also did not fast track tests being developed by labs in the US. Consequence of the lack of leadership and urgency that the POTIS exhibited. Again leadership matters. If he treated it as a crisis in the first place, when it started, we may be more like South Korea, instead of trending toward Italy. Thousands will die e, and it is possible we could have ameliorated it if we treated it as serious as the situation has become Political it is, for the blame game...
I can't help but notice what states seem to be having all the problems.
And?
It makes sense that those states with well traveled populations are going to be hit more than more insular smaller states. Especially at the start.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 22, 2020 14:30:36 GMT -5
It’s obvious New York is testing now. 12,000+ new cases so far today... at this rate, we will catch up with Italy in a couple of days in terms of open cases.
and remember: we are weeks behind them on the curve.
Italy will pass 1000/M on their infection rate this weekend. that is 0.1% we will be expressing these numbers in % soon.
I think the thing that is most alarming is the death rate. has the WHO revised it's mortality projections?
because it looks way more serious than 2% to me.
Depends on the country, and the maturity of the outbreak, DJ. I have seen some as low as 0.6% and Italy’s seem th be north of 5%. So many variables to really know. Characteristics of a population will turn out to be important for mortality, and we know that Italy has an older population. Also if you have widespread testing, you will find a larger number of mild cases. When we look at influenza cases, since we don’t test everybody, an important statistic is weekly visits for acute respiratory illnesses. When they spike, we know we have an epidemic. All numbers for flu are approximate but based on models with good reliability.
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Post by oped on Mar 22, 2020 14:41:01 GMT -5
It’s obvious New York is testing now. 12,000+ new cases so far today... at this rate, we will catch up with Italy in a couple of days in terms of open cases.
and remember: we are weeks behind them on the curve.
Italy will pass 1000/M on their infection rate this weekend. that is 0.1% we will be expressing these numbers in % soon.
I think the thing that is most alarming is the death rate. has the WHO revised it's mortality projections?
because it looks way more serious than 2% to me.
Probably because we are testing the surface ... rich dudes and the really sick...
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 22, 2020 14:43:48 GMT -5
Political it is, for the blame game...
I can't help but notice what states seem to be having all the problems.
And?
It makes sense that those states with well traveled populations are going to be hit more than more insular smaller states. Especially at the start.
The heart surgeon I homeschooled for last fall.., who moved to Alabama? She just contacted me asking to distance tutor the kids an hour or two a day and said she feels like she’s in Africa right now ...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 22, 2020 15:00:07 GMT -5
at this rate, we will catch up with Italy in a couple of days in terms of open cases.
and remember: we are weeks behind them on the curve.
Italy will pass 1000/M on their infection rate this weekend. that is 0.1% we will be expressing these numbers in % soon.
I think the thing that is most alarming is the death rate. has the WHO revised it's mortality projections?
because it looks way more serious than 2% to me.
Depends on the country, and the maturity of the outbreak, DJ. I have seen some as low as 0.6% and Italy’s seem th be north of 5%. So many variables to really know. Characteristics of a population will turn out to be important for mortality, and we know that Italy has an older population. Also if you have widespread testing, you will find a larger number of mild cases. When we look at influenza cases, since we don’t test everybody, an important statistic is weekly visits for acute respiratory illnesses. When they spike, we know we have an epidemic. All numbers for flu are approximate but based on models with good reliability. yeah, I am just asking if the WHO has crunched the numbers yet.
probably not. it is rapidly becoming data chaotic.
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Post by thyme4change on Mar 22, 2020 15:02:11 GMT -5
I went to the google. There's a bunch of different sites that list death rates by country. I just picked this one cause it was the last one I looked at. worldpopulationreview.com/countries/death-rate-by-country/On the handful I looked at - Italy has yearly rate of 10.5ish per 1000 people. So, lets guesstimate! Italy has 60,000,000 people. Now, I'm not particularly good at math.. 60,000,000/1000 = 60,0000 (thousands in 60 million) 60,000*10 = 600,000 deaths per year 600,000/365days in a year = 1643 deaths per typical day in Italy. (that's a back of an envelop guesstimation). Perhaps it looks like the "media" is reporting all the daily deaths in Italy - the COVID19 deaths are about 1/2 the expected daily deaths at this point. Wait. That's gotta be kinda scary...covid19 could soon be killing the same number of people per day in Italy - as are expected to die daily on a regular old everyday day. One problem for Italy is the average age of their citizens is high- large percent of elderly people. I heard that 40% of the people hospitalized were under 50 years old. I don't know if that was worldwide or one particular country/region. I also can't recall where I heard it, so it may not be true.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 15:07:04 GMT -5
And in other posts you ask how it got here... "In addition, if our president was so effective, how come the disease is here" C'mon, jma. You're a smart dude. You know that question was rhetorical. I know, just seeing what I would get back.
This in regards to agenda, etc.
Color me suspicious, but I don't always believe what people present themselves as until they have posted for a while, and to satisfy my memory as far as contradiction is concerned between threads and similar subject.
You seldom, if ever, contradict yourself, And I've been posting with you for a long time, on many, many, subjects.
Any way, my Wi-Fi hot-spot at home has failed, (I'm posting from the roller rink) so I don't know when I'll be back on again as I'm not going into town that I know of for a while.
Be safe.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 15:13:03 GMT -5
And in other posts you ask how it got here... "In addition, if our president was so effective, how come the disease is here" No I was answering you ridiculous comment about Cuomo. So again, if you criticize Cuomo, you really have to criticize trump, since he is president Uh, huh.
Especially since I made it clear quite some time back on the transportation issue, and that's what's really at fault for this,
My stance; ymam.proboards.com/post/3098531/thread
Both posts in that link.
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