kadee79
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S.W. Ga., zone 8b, out in the boonies!
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Post by kadee79 on Mar 13, 2020 19:51:37 GMT -5
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Mar 13, 2020 20:32:57 GMT -5
That is really interesting Kadee.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Mar 13, 2020 23:19:15 GMT -5
I subscribe to this, He is great for breaking it down into term we can use. I have been thru every one of his videos.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 13, 2020 23:24:34 GMT -5
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Mar 13, 2020 23:29:38 GMT -5
Works fine for me and Kadee as she posted it.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Mar 13, 2020 23:33:34 GMT -5
Naaaa, Kadee's is better.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2020 0:05:09 GMT -5
that's nice, but I can't access it.
I said that I will stick with mine because of that.
but great. glad you like it.
it probably IS better.
I just can't see it.
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buystoys
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Post by buystoys on Mar 14, 2020 11:39:49 GMT -5
Thanks for the link kadee79. It showed the information I've been wondering about: how many cases per million of population? The US has a large population with only 7.5 cases per million. While that's 7.5 more than we would like, it is still a low incidence compared to Italy or S. Korea.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 14, 2020 11:46:56 GMT -5
Thanks for the link kadee79. It showed the information I've been wondering about: how many cases per million of population? The US has a large population with only 7.5 cases per million. While that's 7.5 more than we would like, it is still a low incidence compared to Italy or S. Korea. The US currently has a low case number because the US is behind in testing. We’ve tested a fraction that Italy and SK has
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2020 11:49:39 GMT -5
we are still in the parabolic growth part of the curve. until the acceleration stops, we are not even close to getting a handle on this.
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 14, 2020 11:54:30 GMT -5
Thanks for the link kadee79 . It showed the information I've been wondering about: how many cases per million of population? The US has a large population with only 7.5 cases per million. While that's 7.5 more than we would like, it is still a low incidence compared to Italy or S. Korea. The US currently has a low case number because the US is behind in testing. We’ve tested a fraction that Italy and SK has This. And as DJ said we are just starting the curve... which will be exponentially worse because we are not testing.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2020 11:58:17 GMT -5
Thanks for the link kadee79 . It showed the information I've been wondering about: how many cases per million of population? The US has a large population with only 7.5 cases per million. While that's 7.5 more than we would like, it is still a low incidence compared to Italy or S. Korea. that is because we are still very "low on the curve".
there is absolutely no reason to think we can do better than China on this. the norm seems to be infection rates of closer to 150, or 20x what we have now. and then....there is Italy.
China rate applied to the US would mean 600 dead and 200000 cases. "the norm" would be 3x that. and Italy would be 5x that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2020 12:02:54 GMT -5
i was more optimistic a week ago than i am now.
a week ago, the log curve for this disease was flattening. now it is increasing again. and that is because NEARLY HALF the cases are outside of China. and that proportion is growing by the hour. some localities have had 30% growth in a DAY.
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 14, 2020 12:17:52 GMT -5
I think Spain is the new Italy.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 14, 2020 15:12:11 GMT -5
I think Spain is the new Italy. I just hope we don't become the new Spain.
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Mar 14, 2020 15:28:47 GMT -5
Thanks for the link kadee79 . It showed the information I've been wondering about: how many cases per million of population? The US has a large population with only 7.5 cases per million. While that's 7.5 more than we would like, it is still a low incidence compared to Italy or S. Korea. that is because we are still very "low on the curve".
there is absolutely no reason to think we can do better than China on this. the norm seems to be infection rates of closer to 150, or 20x what we have now. and then....there is Italy.
China rate applied to the US would mean 600 dead and 200000 cases. "the norm" would be 3x that. and Italy would be 5x that.
the statistic I just saw on the ticker (I left the tv on and took my laptop outside) was that the US has 2400 confirmed cases and 50 dead. that death toll is way too high for that low a number of confirmed cases, comparing to China/Italy/SK. we are in for a rude surprise as this went unchecked for so long.
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sesfw
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Today is the first day of the rest of my life
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Post by sesfw on Mar 14, 2020 16:28:21 GMT -5
Interesting article and chart.
I saw S Korea on the list but no N Korea. Are there no cases in N Korea, or just no forthcoming information?
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 14, 2020 16:42:30 GMT -5
Interesting article and chart. I saw S Korea on the list but no N Korea. Are there no cases in N Korea, or just no forthcoming information? N Korea has no cases as far I have seen. Benefit of being almost completely isolted
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Mar 14, 2020 18:32:52 GMT -5
that is because we are still very "low on the curve".
there is absolutely no reason to think we can do better than China on this. the norm seems to be infection rates of closer to 150, or 20x what we have now. and then....there is Italy.
China rate applied to the US would mean 600 dead and 200000 cases. "the norm" would be 3x that. and Italy would be 5x that.
the statistic I just saw on the ticker (I left the tv on and took my laptop outside) was that the US has 2400 confirmed cases and 50 dead. that death toll is way too high for that low a number of confirmed cases, comparing to China/Italy/SK. we are in for a rude surprise as this went unchecked for so long. I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 14, 2020 18:37:47 GMT -5
the statistic I just saw on the ticker (I left the tv on and took my laptop outside) was that the US has 2400 confirmed cases and 50 dead. that death toll is way too high for that low a number of confirmed cases, comparing to China/Italy/SK. we are in for a rude surprise as this went unchecked for so long. I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this. Well, “underlying health issues” include hypertension and obesity. What % of Americans (of any age) are obese or are taking blood pressure medications?
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Mar 14, 2020 18:44:06 GMT -5
the statistic I just saw on the ticker (I left the tv on and took my laptop outside) was that the US has 2400 confirmed cases and 50 dead. that death toll is way too high for that low a number of confirmed cases, comparing to China/Italy/SK. we are in for a rude surprise as this went unchecked for so long. I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this. I would expect so, yes.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Mar 14, 2020 22:57:37 GMT -5
I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this. Well, “underlying health issues” include hypertension and obesity. What % of Americans (of any age) are obese or are taking blood pressure medications? I don't know. Maybe 80%? 😜
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 15, 2020 9:48:13 GMT -5
Anybody have a good link for seeing cases by state?
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azucena
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Post by azucena on Mar 15, 2020 10:25:59 GMT -5
the statistic I just saw on the ticker (I left the tv on and took my laptop outside) was that the US has 2400 confirmed cases and 50 dead. that death toll is way too high for that low a number of confirmed cases, comparing to China/Italy/SK. we are in for a rude surprise as this went unchecked for so long. I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this. I have read speculation that our teen population may be hit harder because so many of them vape. They will have more lung damage just like smokers.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 15, 2020 10:29:53 GMT -5
I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this. I have read speculation that our teen population may be hit harder because so many of them vape. They will have more lung damage just like smokers. Same age group that is still partying....
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 15, 2020 12:06:27 GMT -5
I wonder if our general unhealthy lifestyles here in the US will be unkind to our fatality rate during this. I have read speculation that our teen population may be hit harder because so many of them vape. They will have more lung damage just like smokers. I suggest the government institute a quaranteen.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 15, 2020 12:08:47 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 15, 2020 14:55:03 GMT -5
that is because we are still very "low on the curve".
there is absolutely no reason to think we can do better than China on this. the norm seems to be infection rates of closer to 150, or 20x what we have now. and then....there is Italy.
China rate applied to the US would mean 600 dead and 200000 cases. "the norm" would be 3x that. and Italy would be 5x that.
the statistic I just saw on the ticker (I left the tv on and took my laptop outside) was that the US has 2400 confirmed cases and 50 dead. that death toll is way too high for that low a number of confirmed cases, comparing to China/Italy/SK. we are in for a rude surprise as this went unchecked for so long. we have 10 cases per million this morning. that number is meaningless, imo.
the more meaningful stats are those that others have presented: the number of positives per test, and the number of deaths per case. those numbers are pretty high, and should make everyone nervous (and wanting better testing protocol).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 15, 2020 14:56:18 GMT -5
I think Spain is the new Italy. I think Switzerland is the new Italy. the stats coming out of there are alarming.
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 15, 2020 15:07:50 GMT -5
Lots concerning there...
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