lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Mar 30, 2020 15:20:38 GMT -5
The Oregon Health authority breaks the numbers down by county, so I can have some idea how we are doing compared to the whole state.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 30, 2020 19:29:55 GMT -5
20k new cases of CV19 today in the US.
we passed Iran and France in deaths, and we are tied with Iran in cases per million. we will pass them before nightfall.
tomorrow, we will be ahead of China's total death count. we are a nation with 1/3 the people. Trump is getting a D right now. it is very unlikely that he will stay that high on the curve, but I certainly hope he does, for our sake as a nation.
if we have any less than 500k infected by Friday, I will raise a glass in celebration.
it will be a grim celebration, but I will certainly take it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2020 3:30:14 GMT -5
I have been crunching the death total numbers in a spreadsheet, and here is what I have found:
taking the measurements of growth in the preceding (4) days....
at 16 days into the virus, China had a growth rate of 60% over 4 days. at 16 days into the virus, Italy had a growth rate of 133% over 4 days. at 16 days into the virus, the US had a growth rate of 195% over 4 days.
at 24 days into the virus, China had a growth rate of 38% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, Italy had a growth rate of 50% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, the US had a growth rate 181% over 4 days.
notice anything?
yeah. me too.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 8:25:44 GMT -5
I have been crunching the death total numbers in a spreadsheet, and here is what I have found: taking the measurements of growth in the preceding (4) days.... at 16 days into the virus, China had a growth rate of 60% over 4 days. at 16 days into the virus, Italy had a growth rate of 133% over 4 days. at 16 days into the virus, the US had a growth rate of 195% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, China had a growth rate of 38% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, Italy had a growth rate of 50% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, the US had a growth rate 181% over 4 days. notice anything? yeah. me too. Only problem is I don't believe China's numbers. I think Italy and Spain are fair comparisons, and it is still scary.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 31, 2020 8:30:57 GMT -5
I was just going to post the same thing pulmonarymd . China's numbers are most likely bogus, and their deaths probably far outnumber what they have released. However from what I understand they were pretty effective in limiting the virus to that province once they saw what they faced and locked it down. Of course they could lock it down in a fashion that only a totalitarian regime easily can.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 8:47:15 GMT -5
I was just going to post the same thing pulmonarymd . China's numbers are most likely bogus, and their deaths probably far outnumber what they have released. However from what I understand they were pretty effective in limiting the virus to that province once they saw what they faced and locked it down. Of course they could lock it down in a fashion that only a totalitarian regime easily can. It does seem like they contained it well, with draconian measures. Saw something today that they did not report anyone who was asymptomatic, even if they tested positive. So, their numbers are greatly undercounted.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 9:38:08 GMT -5
Any possibility you two could debate climate change elsewhere? I know we are supposed to let threads go wherever, but this feels terribly out of place. I'll remember to throw in Trumps name next time to make the subject fit anywhere. See deminmaine for blame on the subject switch. #263
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 31, 2020 9:38:28 GMT -5
The tell I saw reported about the death count in China being grossly under reported came from crematoria statistics.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Mar 31, 2020 10:44:55 GMT -5
Any possibility you two could debate climate change elsewhere? I know we are supposed to let threads go wherever, but this feels terribly out of place. I'll remember to throw in Trumps name next time to make the subject fit anywhere. See deminmaine for blame on the subject switch. #263 I'm not blaming anyone, just asking if you can take it to another thread- maybe one about climate change.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 31, 2020 10:57:44 GMT -5
Any possibility you two could debate climate change elsewhere? I know we are supposed to let threads go wherever, but this feels terribly out of place. I'll remember to throw in Trumps name next time to make the subject fit anywhere. See deminmaine for blame on the subject switch. #263 Not really jma, I wasn't switching the subject, merely pointing out the futility of the arguments of the science deniers. You took it from there ( My comment in the post #263: Gad this is like arguing climate change all over again, but with an active body count. Yippee! )
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2020 11:58:37 GMT -5
I have been crunching the death total numbers in a spreadsheet, and here is what I have found: taking the measurements of growth in the preceding (4) days.... at 16 days into the virus, China had a growth rate of 60% over 4 days. at 16 days into the virus, Italy had a growth rate of 133% over 4 days. at 16 days into the virus, the US had a growth rate of 195% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, China had a growth rate of 38% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, Italy had a growth rate of 50% over 4 days. at 24 days into the virus, the US had a growth rate 181% over 4 days. notice anything? yeah. me too. Only problem is I don't believe China's numbers. I think Italy and Spain are fair comparisons, and it is still scary. might I ask you why you don't believe China's numbers?
also: Spain, Italy, and Switzerland all have very similar curves. I am thinking of this as "three groups". there is the group that went after this thing full force (typified by the China curve), the group that went after it full force only AFTER it reached the pandemic stage (Italy), and the group that has still not gone after it full force (US, UK).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2020 11:59:33 GMT -5
I was just going to post the same thing pulmonarymd . China's numbers are most likely bogus, and their deaths probably far outnumber what they have released. However from what I understand they were pretty effective in limiting the virus to that province once they saw what they faced and locked it down. Of course they could lock it down in a fashion that only a totalitarian regime easily can. I actually DO believe their numbers, and I can explain why. but I want to hear from pmd first.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 31, 2020 12:09:45 GMT -5
Helpful tips.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 12:16:30 GMT -5
I was just going to post the same thing pulmonarymd . China's numbers are most likely bogus, and their deaths probably far outnumber what they have released. However from what I understand they were pretty effective in limiting the virus to that province once they saw what they faced and locked it down. Of course they could lock it down in a fashion that only a totalitarian regime easily can. I actually DO believe their numbers, and I can explain why. but I want to hear from pmd first. I don’t believe their numbers because they were muzzling their healthcare providers, and their natural inclinations to secrecy. In addition, they were completely irresponsible during the original SARS outbreak, and allowed it to get out of control because of that. Finally, There are reports today that they undercounted due to not reporting asymptotic infections. I also do not believe our numbers due to issues related to our testing fiasco. The numbers in NYC are without a doubt an undercount, as less severe infections are not even being tested.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 31, 2020 12:24:11 GMT -5
I actually DO believe their numbers, and I can explain why. but I want to hear from pmd first. I don’t believe their numbers because they were muzzling their healthcare providers, and their natural inclinations to secrecy. In addition, they were completely irresponsible during the original SARS outbreak, and allowed it to get out of control because of that. Finally, There are reports today that they undercounted due to not reporting asymptotic infections. I also do not believe our numbers due to issues related to our testing fiasco. The numbers in NYC are without a doubt an undercount, as less severe infections are not even being tested. Read yesterday, the Pentagon is muzzling the military's number of troops who have contracted the virus for the reason of national security.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2020 12:29:38 GMT -5
I actually DO believe their numbers, and I can explain why. but I want to hear from pmd first. I don’t believe their numbers because they were muzzling their healthcare providers, and their natural inclinations to secrecy. In addition, they were completely irresponsible during the original SARS outbreak, and allowed it to get out of control because of that. Finally, There are reports today that they undercounted due to not reporting asymptotic infections. I also do not believe our numbers due to issues related to our testing fiasco. The numbers in NYC are without a doubt an undercount, as less severe infections are not even being tested. Italy is also LIKELY and undercount, given the high mortality they are reporting. China likely undercounted by a factor of 2x for the same reason.
do you think that China does not have the virus largely under control at this point?
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 31, 2020 12:32:54 GMT -5
I read that the Italian fatality numbers was only those who died in hospitals and did not include deaths at home or in nursing homes
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 31, 2020 12:34:48 GMT -5
I was just going to post the same thing pulmonarymd . China's numbers are most likely bogus, and their deaths probably far outnumber what they have released. However from what I understand they were pretty effective in limiting the virus to that province once they saw what they faced and locked it down. Of course they could lock it down in a fashion that only a totalitarian regime easily can. I actually DO believe their numbers, and I can explain why. but I want to hear from pmd first. My step son is in China. Their numbers are bogus.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2020 12:40:08 GMT -5
I actually DO believe their numbers, and I can explain why. but I want to hear from pmd first. My step son is in China. Their numbers are bogus. so, you think they have millions dead?
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 12:40:58 GMT -5
I don’t believe their numbers because they were muzzling their healthcare providers, and their natural inclinations to secrecy. In addition, they were completely irresponsible during the original SARS outbreak, and allowed it to get out of control because of that. Finally, There are reports today that they undercounted due to not reporting asymptotic infections. I also do not believe our numbers due to issues related to our testing fiasco. The numbers in NYC are without a doubt an undercount, as less severe infections are not even being tested. Italy is also LIKELY and undercount, given the high mortality they are reporting. China likely undercounted by a factor of 2x for the same reason.
do you think that China does not have the virus largely under control at this point?
I suspect they have some semblance of control, or they wouldn’t be loosening the measures they put in place. Italy has to be an undercount too, there mortality is so much higher than everyone else’s even with having an elderly population. The genetics of the virus do not support such a virulent virus circulating in one region. Everyone is likely undercounting, just a matter of degree. When we can do antibody testing the results will be interesting to see how extensive the infection has been to that point
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2020 12:52:57 GMT -5
I am encouraged by the latest growth numbers in cases.
a week ago, we were growing at 30%/day. today it is more like 15% per day.
still too high, but heading in the right direction, finally.
the US stayed on the 30% curve WAY too long, tho. we have lots of active cases, and probably 3-7x as many undiagnosed. iow, we might have as many as a million active cases right now.
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 31, 2020 13:40:12 GMT -5
Growth means nothing unless compared to testing.
Death means more but covidtracking project and worldometer are way off one another. It is unconscionable that the CDC isn’t reporting accurate numbers.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 14:51:33 GMT -5
I think the most accurate sign of how bad this is in a place like nyc with widespread infections is daily hospital admissions/Ed visits for respiratory illness/respiratory failure/pneumonia. If those number stabilize, then I believe things may be plateauing. There is just too much noise in the gross number of cases. It would be nice to see the curve bend, it means the rest of us may escape a disaster such as what’s going on and n nyc. Unfortunately, it also means we will need to continue the lock down. If we get overconfident and release it too early, we will have repeated spikes and repeated lockdowns
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 31, 2020 15:05:55 GMT -5
My step son is in China. Their numbers are bogus. so, you think they have millions dead? I am in no position to make an educated guess. Given where my step son is near Beijing he is not close enough to know much more than that their numbers are wrong. The people looking at the crematory stats are guessing between 20-30K, near as I can see. That is only based on the information they have in Wuhan and environs though. That is a long way from millions though.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 15:51:39 GMT -5
so, you think they have millions dead? I am in no position to make an educated guess. Given where my step son is near Beijing he is not close enough to know much more than that their numbers are wrong. The people looking at the crematory stats are guessing between 20-30K, near as I can see. That is only based on the information they have in Wuhan and environs though. That is a long way from millions though. Based on the population in nyc and the area around Wuhan, and given the fact the the description of events are eerily similar, and the large number of field hospitals erected in Wuhan, I think that is a far more reasonable number. I do believe that they contained it to a small area, but I remember seeing a report that something like 30 million people were quarantined. Especially in light of Italy experience, that number rings true. IMHO
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 31, 2020 15:59:34 GMT -5
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Mar 31, 2020 16:08:45 GMT -5
The Oregon Health authority breaks the numbers down by county, so I can have some idea how we are doing compared to the whole state. You would think that wouldn't you? The official number for my City is 12 cases all self isolating at home. A nurse friend tells me the hospital is hopping with people on ventilators. None of which are making the confirmed cases list.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 31, 2020 16:20:50 GMT -5
I watched this very sad segment on Brooke Baldwin's CNN show yesterday. Baldwin interviewed Michelle Bennett who was unable to be with her mother when her mother passed away from the virus and what the hospital nurse did for Bennett and her mother.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Mar 31, 2020 18:10:30 GMT -5
I don't believe the Chinese numbers..... I know the UK ones are inaccurate... since people are only tested when they are in hospital and very ill (Thats what the government have told us.) Even the death rates aren't that accurate.... since some people may have died at home without being tested. Think of how many people there are in China
There is a world shortage of the chemicals needed for tests..... so no-one is doing enough, anywhere. Our infection rate is down, in so much as we know the numbers admitted to hospital are down (and we are in lockdown)... but the death at is still high because those that are dying got the virus a month ago....so it will get worse before it gets better. Stay safe...it will get better,
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2020 2:31:45 GMT -5
ok, I am starting to like this site.
it appears that they are adjusting this model DAILY based on data that is coming in. the projection a few days ago was 81k. now it is 93k.
covid19.healthdata.org/projections
I am going to put this one on my favourites list.
edit: they are now showing peak deaths per day at 2600, which is +300 from last time. maybe I should start a thread with this one? yeah. I think I will do that.
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