djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2020 3:26:10 GMT -5
stock market is approaching it's fourth test of 27000. it has broken it only once, and by only 2%.
and yeah, maybe this is it. but after 8 years of solid gains (followed by 2 years of nothing), that is increasingly unlikely.
then again, sometimes Old Maggot Drawers wins the Preakness. 
Record DOW Record S&P 500 Record Nasdaq Ten yr bond 1.92% Inverted yield curve is distant history.Bank complex breaking out Transports confirm the break out for the DOW Recession is kaput. this is false. the yield curve is in danger of inverting again.
moreover, if you are technical junkie, we just had the devils cross.
there are a lot of indicators that this bull run is nearly over.
but go ahead and buy them stockies, if you wish.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2020 3:28:59 GMT -5
And yet I read the other day over 40% of the people in this country make low wages. It is great for those at the top they have all the resources. For the rest not so good. And more and more will go to the top, no other way at this point. Someday like other countries the poor will rise up, they will get tired of fighting for pennies and never getting ahead. They finally killed unions and destroyed the middle class. The rich will continue investing in the market, where else do they and other negative interest countries have to put there money? love this post more than i can express.
this is precisely the issue. the balance of trade numbers tell us what is going on: the slow erosion of US dominance.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2020 3:30:30 GMT -5
And yet I read the other day over 40% of the people in this country make low wages. It is great for those at the top they have all the resources. For the rest not so good. And more and more will go to the top, no other way at this point. Someday like other countries the poor will rise up, they will get tired of fighting for pennies and never getting ahead. They finally killed unions and destroyed the middle class. The rich will continue investing in the market, where else do they and other negative interest countries have to put there money? The unions killed themselves, by backing the party that advocates free trade agreements. While basically pricing themselves out of the global market. Did you think the rich would care ? no. but when mobs of poor people start climbing over the fences of their McMansion suburbs, they will.
that is what happened in the 30's. it can happen again.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2020 7:58:55 GMT -5
The unions killed themselves, by backing the party that advocates free trade agreements. While basically pricing themselves out of the global market. Did you think the rich would care ? no. but when mobs of poor people start climbing over the fences of their McMansion suburbs, they will.
that is what happened in the 30's. it can happen again.
It'll never happen. That kind of activity takes drive and fortitude. You'd be lucky if they looked up from their devices, while signing up for their next handout. They've all changed their names to Julie. I actually thank the Democrats for this.  |
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Jan 31, 2020 16:33:47 GMT -5
I have renters, by the way ALLLLL of them work, all of them, I do not rent to people on welfare or no jobs. They are struggling more and more. Last month and this month for the first time ever and some of these people have rented from us for years, they are asking to break their rent into 2 payments. We are letting them, its that or evict them. Since I checked their credit I know these people don't have credit cards, not all have bank accounts. So they are paying rent, getting food, trying to keep old cars going, and that's about it. They are not asking for handouts or going on welfare nor changing their names to Julie. You have no idea how the working class is suffering. 1 lady is in school and hopes to finish this year so she can find a job her boyfriend works all the overtime he can get. Another just took a test for her CNA, she is a single parent her husband got killed in a work accident. Her DD's SS is almost ready to run out. Daughter just got inducted into the National Honor Society and works. The other ladies daughter is on the high honor roll. Another man is divorced and has 2 kids one of which is autistic, he is trying to be here to help with him. I have 2 truck drivers, 1 manufacturing person, another wife manufacturing, another working manufacturing in the Toyota plant where she drives an hour to work, another in Texas Walmart, one working in a nursing home, the one in school with boyfriend. The one that drives an hour each way decided not to move when she found she was going to have to go from $475 a month to $700 for something not as nice.
We have nice small houses that are economical for them to live in and they all know that, so are doing everything they can to stay. As the cost of living continues up and they can't keep pace at some point I will likely have to evict some of them. I will do it as we too need to have a return for our money but I won't like doing it. From knowing all of them, they will likely leave without being told and just tell us they need to move.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2020 19:20:56 GMT -5
no. but when mobs of poor people start climbing over the fences of their McMansion suburbs, they will.
that is what happened in the 30's. it can happen again.
That kind of activity takes drive and fortitude. You'd be lucky if they looked up from their devices, while signing up for their next handout. They've all changed their names to Julie. I actually thank the Democrats for this. they thought that in the Roaring 20's, too.
you know....the last time we had this kind of wealth disparity?
never say never.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2020 19:25:33 GMT -5
I have renters, by the way ALLLLL of them work, all of them, I do not rent to people on welfare or no jobs. They are struggling more and more. Last month and this month for the first time ever and some of these people have rented from us for years, they are asking to break their rent into 2 payments. We are letting them, its that or evict them. Since I checked their credit I know these people don't have credit cards, not all have bank accounts. So they are paying rent, getting food, trying to keep old cars going, and that's about it. They are not asking for handouts or going on welfare nor changing their names to Julie. You have no idea how the working class is suffering. 1 lady is in school and hopes to finish this year so she can find a job her boyfriend works all the overtime he can get. Another just took a test for her CNA, she is a single parent her husband got killed in a work accident. Her DD's SS is almost ready to run out. Daughter just got inducted into the National Honor Society and works. The other ladies daughter is on the high honor roll. Another man is divorced and has 2 kids one of which is autistic, he is trying to be here to help with him. I have 2 truck drivers, 1 manufacturing person, another wife manufacturing, another working manufacturing in the Toyota plant where she drives an hour to work, another in Texas Walmart, one working in a nursing home, the one in school with boyfriend. The one that drives an hour each way decided not to move when she found she was going to have to go from $475 a month to $700 for something not as nice. We have nice small houses that are economical for them to live in and they all know that, so are doing everything they can to stay. As the cost of living continues up and they can't keep pace at some point I will likely have to evict some of them. I will do it as we too need to have a return for our money but I won't like doing it. From knowing all of them, they will likely leave without being told and just tell us they need to move. it seems weird to me that Trump supporters don't know that. but it is actually not that weird.
most Trump supporters have this sense of entitlement which blinds them to suffering.
#sad
I think we are actually pretty close to a class war. I know that I am in the extreme minority for thinking so, but it has been building for years. we only need one more downturn, with 10%+ UE, and I think it will happen. people will riot. there is only so much suffering people will endure, while watching the 1% buy yachts, mansions, and shuffle their funds offshore.
the alternative is the rich will accept modest tax increases, of the variety proposed by Warren and others. but they seem to treat that all as a sick joke. so.....comeuppance is all that is left for them.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2020 19:26:57 GMT -5
for the record, this is slightly encouraging: edit: this is for CHINA, for the record. the global PMI is not nearly as reassuring.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2020 19:36:37 GMT -5
and...on the other hand...we have THIS:  |
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Post by busymom on Feb 4, 2020 12:57:35 GMT -5
they thought that in the Roaring 20's, too.
you know....the last time we had this kind of wealth disparity?
never say never.
It's not the roaring twenties. Nor was the level of handouts to sign up for, present at that time. People become complacent when life has a big OPM safety net, and easy distraction. You have to have noticed, that all large protests, are mainly for just another handout. Those handouts go away with anarchy. Even an entitled millennial knows that. Handouts? You mean the kind that multiple corporations are getting, the ones who paid no taxes in 2019? Spare me. We can do a LOT better for the average American. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2020 16:15:50 GMT -5
they thought that in the Roaring 20's, too.
you know....the last time we had this kind of wealth disparity?
never say never.
It's not the roaring twenties. no, it is far worse.
so, we are starting a few steps behind 1929.
why you derive comfort from that is something of a mystery to me.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2020 16:16:48 GMT -5
crickets on post 248, so far?
color me shocked.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2020 16:18:42 GMT -5
yeah, that is true.
the sense of entitlement and complacency among my white male upper class friends is definitely part of the problem.
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Post by OldCoyote on Feb 5, 2020 9:29:07 GMT -5
I have renters, by the way ALLLLL of them work, all of them, I do not rent to people on welfare or no jobs. They are struggling more and more. Last month and this month for the first time ever and some of these people have rented from us for years, they are asking to break their rent into 2 payments. We are letting them, its that or evict them. Since I checked their credit I know these people don't have credit cards, not all have bank accounts. So they are paying rent, getting food, trying to keep old cars going, and that's about it. They are not asking for handouts or going on welfare nor changing their names to Julie. You have no idea how the working class is suffering. 1 lady is in school and hopes to finish this year so she can find a job her boyfriend works all the overtime he can get. Another just took a test for her CNA, she is a single parent her husband got killed in a work accident. Her DD's SS is almost ready to run out. Daughter just got inducted into the National Honor Society and works. The other ladies daughter is on the high honor roll. Another man is divorced and has 2 kids one of which is autistic, he is trying to be here to help with him. I have 2 truck drivers, 1 manufacturing person, another wife manufacturing, another working manufacturing in the Toyota plant where she drives an hour to work, another in Texas Walmart, one working in a nursing home, the one in school with boyfriend. The one that drives an hour each way decided not to move when she found she was going to have to go from $475 a month to $700 for something not as nice. We have nice small houses that are economical for them to live in and they all know that, so are doing everything they can to stay. As the cost of living continues up and they can't keep pace at some point I will likely have to evict some of them. I will do it as we too need to have a return for our money but I won't like doing it. From knowing all of them, they will likely leave without being told and just tell us they need to move. Spoken like a rich person trying to protect their assets!! |
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Post by OldCoyote on Feb 5, 2020 9:32:51 GMT -5
Only a couple of weeks ago Goldman Sachs's said,,, |
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Feb 5, 2020 9:41:48 GMT -5
Macys closing another 125 stores over 2000 more being laid off, seems to be a daily occurrence.
Sorry we can't afford houses sitting there with no money coming in, we have fixed costs that continue, rented or empty.
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Post by busymom on Feb 5, 2020 16:42:49 GMT -5
Is anyone else noticing the number of restaurants closing in their community? I'd noticed some here, and then a friend mentioned to me a number of them closing in her community. (Two counties over from me.) It isn't just fast food restaurants either. And, a couple of well-known grocery chains are closing some locations, too. So, I don't think it's only the retail stores that are hurting right now.
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Post by OldCoyote on Feb 5, 2020 19:19:28 GMT -5
It's not the roaring twenties. Nor was the level of handouts to sign up for, present at that time. People become complacent when life has a big OPM safety net, and easy distraction. You have to have noticed, that all large protests, are mainly for just another handout. Those handouts go away with anarchy. Even an entitled millennial knows that. Handouts? You mean the kind that multiple corporations are getting, the ones who paid no taxes in 2019? Spare me. We can do a LOT better for the average American. I have structured it so I might not have to pay any taxes for 2019. |
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Post by buystoys on Feb 7, 2020 7:48:54 GMT -5
Is anyone else noticing the number of restaurants closing in their community? I'd noticed some here, and then a friend mentioned to me a number of them closing in her community. (Two counties over from me.) It isn't just fast food restaurants either. And, a couple of well-known grocery chains are closing some locations, too. So, I don't think it's only the retail stores that are hurting right now. Our town/small city is seeing a massive expansion of retail space, including restaurants. I know of at least five that have opened in a single city block area recently. Housing is booming. The town about ten minutes away is just starting to build a 5,000 housing section.
I don't know if we're just an anomaly or if we're the norm. It's been like this ever since we moved here in 2013. Lots of building, commercial and residential, and lots of new places and faces. All kinds of employment signs out on the main roads and on employment sites.
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Post by Tiny on Feb 7, 2020 11:24:16 GMT -5
Is anyone else noticing the number of restaurants closing in their community? I'd noticed some here, and then a friend mentioned to me a number of them closing in her community. (Two counties over from me.) It isn't just fast food restaurants either. And, a couple of well-known grocery chains are closing some locations, too. So, I don't think it's only the retail stores that are hurting right now. A handful of 'family owned' type restaurants have closed in my area. It's a case of Mom and Dad (or Gramppa/grandma) want to be done working and no family member wants to take over the business. 2 of the restaurants (one with seating for 15 or so and a take out counter, one with seating for 30 people no take out) are still restaurants - but with new names, new food, and new "small business owner family" running it. The other 3 storefronts are empty and will probably become something other than a restaurant. I have noticed that the restaurant chains in the out lots of the big shopping area are dark at 8:00pm Sunday thru Wednesday... they didn't use to be. Considering how much Americans supposedly spend on "take out" or "restaurant" food per week... it might mean people are spending less on food... which I think would be a "descretionary" spend. Of course, it might just be that they are using DoorDash and GrubHub and UberEats and still eating the restaurant food - they just having it delivered. (Why bother going to Applebee's on a weeknight if you can have McDonald's/Taco Bell/KFC delivered to your door? ) |
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Post by Tiny on Feb 7, 2020 11:37:16 GMT -5
I have renters, by the way ALLLLL of them work, all of them, I do not rent to people on welfare or no jobs. They are struggling more and more. Last month and this month for the first time ever and some of these people have rented from us for years, they are asking to break their rent into 2 payments. We are letting them, its that or evict them. Since I checked their credit I know these people don't have credit cards, not all have bank accounts. So they are paying rent, getting food, trying to keep old cars going, and that's about it. They are not asking for handouts or going on welfare nor changing their names to Julie. You have no idea how the working class is suffering. 1 lady is in school and hopes to finish this year so she can find a job her boyfriend works all the overtime he can get. Another just took a test for her CNA, she is a single parent her husband got killed in a work accident. Her DD's SS is almost ready to run out. Daughter just got inducted into the National Honor Society and works. The other ladies daughter is on the high honor roll. Another man is divorced and has 2 kids one of which is autistic, he is trying to be here to help with him. I have 2 truck drivers, 1 manufacturing person, another wife manufacturing, another working manufacturing in the Toyota plant where she drives an hour to work, another in Texas Walmart, one working in a nursing home, the one in school with boyfriend. The one that drives an hour each way decided not to move when she found she was going to have to go from $475 a month to $700 for something not as nice. We have nice small houses that are economical for them to live in and they all know that, so are doing everything they can to stay. As the cost of living continues up and they can't keep pace at some point I will likely have to evict some of them. I will do it as we too need to have a return for our money but I won't like doing it. From knowing all of them, they will likely leave without being told and just tell us they need to move. I use to call myself a "slum lord" in jest because I've owned and rented small, low end, fully functional, clean houses to people with incomes in the median income range (and I made sure the house was kept in functional order while it was rented in quick order.) I am not a "slum lord" and have stopped calling myself that. I am witnessing true hovels being offered for rent at crazy prices. If you have a median income - your "rent" or "shelter" costs are eating up an amazing amount of your income. And your only choices for housing might be living in one of those hovels I mentioned... leaking pumbling, bare lightbubs in fixtures, barely sealing exterior doors and windows, etc. I can't believe landlords aren't doing basic maintenance... I'm seeing this kind of stuff in the 2 real estate areas I watch... Not to mention "starter homes" in the 1000sq foot range that have been freshly painted grey but haven't had any sort of basic upkeep maintenance done are selling in the 200K plus range. It's looking like earning the median income means you aren't doing very well financially. And median income usually indicates the majority of incomes fall near it. |
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Post by Tiny on Feb 7, 2020 12:03:18 GMT -5
I'm thinking a lot of people with jobs are carrying a lot of debt: www.debt.org/faqs/americans-in-debt/It's not one type of debt (like the housing crash was all about mortgage debt) I think the combination of Student Loans, Car loans, Credit Card debt combined with the ever rising "fixed" expense of shelter (rent/mortgage, utilities, phone, cable/internet) is what's putting the squeeze on consumers. And America is a consumer economy. |
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Post by countrygirl2 on Feb 7, 2020 13:13:22 GMT -5
The closing of the power plant and a mine here is going to effect us, the only decent paying jobs around here. I doubt if those folks are renting, they either own or are buying. But already I've seen several nicer homes go on the market. We expect many more.
But that doesn't effect our renters, they are not in that category anyway. They make it impossible for people who are lower income like we have yet pay their bills to buy a home. It's sad. We will keep our rents low as possible long as possible to rent to them. We have discussed dropping insurance, its not bad but if we do we can't keep an umbrella and we don't want to lose it. So far so good. I had a lady today that is paying, first time she has been late, its later after the 5th. She wanted to know if I want her to pay a late charge. I told her not this time but if it continued being late I would charge them. I hate to do it, takes away more needed money, but will in the future. You can feel sorry, but if you are running a business to stay viable you have to do it. I have thousands of dollars in property taxes and insurance between now and May.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2020 15:20:33 GMT -5
recession proof?
a) Goldman Sachs? they are the biggest bunch of rat bastards on the planet.
b) we have heard this before. and they were dead wrong.
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Post by busymom on Feb 11, 2020 16:37:09 GMT -5
recession proof? a) Goldman Sachs? they are the biggest bunch of rat bastards on the planet. b) we have heard this before. and they were dead wrong. I just about choked when he said all women work by choice. Not when their husbands don't make enough to pay the bills, they don't... I wonder if he ever paid up on their penny bet. |
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Post by countrygirl2 on Feb 11, 2020 23:14:05 GMT -5
I am seeing ads appearing already for boats and second vehicles in our area. I'm sure some are the laid off people. A restaurant has closed already. We have had over the last few months 2 restaurant fires. The first is really rebuilding, the second said they will to be seen. This tiny restaurant in our town served a lot of the power plant workers, I doubt she can stay open.
Indiana is going to try to pass a bill forcing coal fired plants to stay open, that should be interesting. The one here said 3 more years, since that came out their stack is cold. I'm betting they decided to just hang it up rather then take a chance, so we may not get 3 more years. With the loss of tax revenue the other school corporation was just hanging on so I see total consolidation to one big campus in the county. Who will want to live here and drive for miles to school and to events and miles to jobs also? The city north of us has lost all kinds of retail and restaurants. I imagine the big cities are booming but the decline of the smaller towns and cities is going on.
And as many have said there may be jobs but working 2 or 3 part time they still can't make it while costs are raising daily. So now when people are down they are going to cut supports out from under them even more.
I'm not sure what will happen, but if it continues I eventually see unrest, they have nothing to loss. And people like that become dangerous.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 13, 2020 2:29:53 GMT -5
recession proof? a) Goldman Sachs? they are the biggest bunch of rat bastards on the planet. b) we have heard this before. and they were dead wrong. I just about choked when he said all women work by choice. Not when their husbands don't make enough to pay the bills, they don't... I wonder if he ever paid up on their penny bet. he didn't. |
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Post by busymom on Feb 13, 2020 11:53:31 GMT -5
Yes, countrygirl2, in my home state a sign that the economy is going to pot is when the farmers start parking cars & boats by the side of road, on the edge of their properties, with "For Sale" signs on the windshields. djAdvocate, I wish I could say I was surprised that he didn't pay off on their bet. I'm remembering the scene from "Trading Places" with the $1 bet.  |
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Post by bean29 on Feb 13, 2020 12:13:54 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 13, 2020 13:10:26 GMT -5
Yes, countrygirl2 , in my home state a sign that the economy is going to pot is when the farmers start parking cars & boats by the side of road, on the edge of their properties, with "For Sale" signs on the windshields. djAdvocate , I wish I could say I was surprised that he didn't pay off on their bet. I'm remembering the scene from "Trading Places" with the $1 bet. honor means nothing to these people.
they are playing what I call "the short game"- where eeking out the smallest advantage today is worth whatever long term costs might come. in a sense I kind of admire the personal faith such a tactic takes. but it is utterly perverse in another sense.
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