Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

[countrygirl2]

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, only 32% of Americans are saving for retirement in a 401(k). Granted, that owes partly to the fact that 401(k)s are employer-dependent, and not every company offers one.

This may be why all this isn't helping that many people.

[nittanycheme]

I do have a 401K, and IRAs.  They have now recovered from the drops over the last 6-8 months, and are slightly ahead of where they were in Sep/Oct 2018.  Although they are basically ahead the same amount I've contributed.

[countrygirl2]

Have you read about the new taxation on 401k's they are passing.  It has already passed the house and they are sure will pass the senate.

They are going to reduce your withdrawal time to 10 years instead of what they are doing now.  Also going to do the same for beneficiaries.  If its a college student, will screw their FASA I think its called.  Better read up on it.  No matter what we try to do to make it work we get screwed.

I'm sure it has to do with trump giving the extreme wealthy more breaks and its killing us with the national debt.  I read Pelosi is trying to pass a bill before she leaves because the US will run out of money in October. What will they go after next, we are screwed.

[nittanycheme]

Jul 13, 2019 18:15:21 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Have you read about the new taxation on 401k's they are passing.  It has already passed the house and they are sure will pass the senate.

They are going to reduce your withdrawal time to 10 years instead of what they are doing now.  Also going to do the same for beneficiaries.  If its a college student, will screw their FASA I think its called.  Better read up on it.  No matter what we try to do to make it work we get screwed.

I'm sure it has to do with trump giving the extreme wealthy more breaks and its killing us with the national debt.  I read Pelosi is trying to pass a bill before she leaves because the US will run out of money in October. What will they go after next, we are screwed.

The 10 year is for non-spouse beneficiaries.  So your kid or your friend who inherits your 401k when you're dead will have to take the money out over 10 years.  I need to dig  little more, but it may also apply to how much of the age difference you can apply to your RMD's.  You used to be able to pick a really young beneficiary, and your RMD was based on some combination of your 2 ages, so you could reduce your RMD's that way.  They did raise the mandatory RMD age.  

Link to WSJ article.  WSJ article

[countrygirl2]

Is it?  I need to read up, I thought it would effect us and make us draw out in 10 years.  Will read the WSJ article perhaps I panicked needlessly.

[countrygirl2]

I have to subscribe to read it and can find no other articles.

[nittanycheme]

Well, that's interesting.  I was able to read the whole thing yesterday.  It was actually a really good article.   There is  an article out from Kiplinger - the section on "Stretch" IRAs is what you heard about.  Its pretty far down the page, but a good summary.  kiplinger article

The WSJ article said something about that the change was made to help pay for some of the other changes. 

[countrygirl2]

Nothing there that will effect me.

[djAdvocate]

as some of you know, I am an avid investor. I have been playing individual stocks for over fourty years.

I have built a bunch of screeners. in an undervalued market, they typically give me about 20-30 stocks. right now, they are giving me about 4. ok, you say, that is one indicator.

the other thing I am looking at is revenues in my current holdings. they are decelerating. companies that were getting 10% YOY growth earlier in the recovery are now getting 5%. those that were getting 5% are getting 3%.

now, it is true, profits are growing nicely. but I think a lot of it is due to NETTING the tax cuts. in other words, companies are not actually getting very good returns right now, and margins are shrinking, but they are still doing better thanks to tax policies, and for domestic producers in some cases, tariffs.

so, yeah, I am seeing some slowing, and it is decreasing values, which ultimately can only be resolved one of two ways- with sharp economic growth, or with a recession.

[countrygirl2]

It will slow eventually, just part of the cycle.

[Tiny]

Doesn't the Fed's rate cut indicate an economic slowdown?   Why else would they do something that traditionally is used to give the economy a 'push'?      

[Gardening Grandma]

Jul 31, 2019 15:22:39 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Doesn't the Fed's rate cut indicate an economic slowdown?   Why else would they do something that traditionally is used to give the economy a 'push'?      

I really don’t understand the rationale for this latest cut. If/when the economy goes south, there is very little “wiggle room” for the Fed to act

[Tiny]

Jul 31, 2019 16:31:46 GMT -5 Gardening Grandma said:

Jul 31, 2019 15:22:39 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Doesn't the Fed's rate cut indicate an economic slowdown?   Why else would they do something that traditionally is used to give the economy a 'push'?      

I really don’t understand the rationale for this latest cut. If/when the economy goes south, there is very little “wiggle room” for the Fed to act

I'd hazard a guess that they are trying to "smooth" out any downturn... as in instead of just letting the economy drop off a cliff (I don't think it would actually do this) they are trying to soften the blow over time.   They are trying to  control the volumne of air leaving the balloon.   Either that or they are giving the 1% additional time to suck money out of the economy....  

[Gardening Grandma]

Aug 1, 2019 15:55:27 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Jul 31, 2019 16:31:46 GMT -5 Gardening Grandma said:

I really don’t understand the rationale for this latest cut. If/when the economy goes south, there is very little “wiggle room” for the Fed to act

I'd hazard a guess that they are trying to "smooth" out any downturn... as in instead of just letting the economy drop off a cliff (I don't think it would actually do this) they are trying to soften the blow over time.   They are trying to  control the volumne of air leaving the balloon.   Either that or they are giving the 1% additional time to suck money out of the economy....  

My $$ is on the second

[countrygirl2]

Market is crazy today after the trumpster said he was raising tariffs again. When will people get enough of him?

[OldCoyote]

Well, here we are a year and 6 months since this thread was started,  Some of you think or thought the market was going to tank the next day.

So, Is it going to tank tomorrow??,, or is it going to continue on like it has for the last year and half, little bubbles here and there?

[countrygirl2]

I don't know, buffett is saying stocks are way overvalued.  they said he is not doing stock buybacks and making no big deals.  He has sold a billion dollars worth of stock.  Also keeping cash, sounds like he is waiting for buying opportunities.  Likely he is more knowledgeable then the general public.

[Value Buy]

Mar 18, 2018 1:23:54 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

They are saying on how he deals with these tariffs worse case could be over 800k job loss

in US. Also growth isn't even going to begin to cover these tax breaks. So far they are keeping

wages down, personally I think they will continue to do so. Not knowing what the pres strategy

is going to be, could cause the stock market to plummet at some point. I think its just a matter

of time before we go into a recession or worse.

This is from March 18th 2018.
You change your mind yet?
800,000 job losses?
No growth?
Wages down?
Some of you should go back and read your posts and now acknowledge your mistakes on the economy's direction.
Tariffs have been going for over a year now and we are okay.
Heck China let the Yuan fall, so the tariff increase is a non issue for everyone here, and their countrymen and women eat the pain of the tariffs with a devalued currency.

[busymom]

They're announcing more closings:



www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2019/08/05/perkins-marie-callenders-bankruptcy-restaurant-closings/1926980001/

[countrygirl2]

Yes, I still expect it, economies don't ramp up overnight, didn't for Obama and they don't crash overnight.  though trump is doing everything in the world to make it crash, its still hanging in there.  

[busymom]

It looks like Walgreens plans to close some locations:



www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2019/08/07/walgreens-to-close-200-stores-across-the-nation.html

[Value Buy]

Aug 6, 2019 15:18:03 GMT -5 busymom said:

They're announcing more closings:



www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2019/08/05/perkins-marie-callenders-bankruptcy-restaurant-closings/1926980001/

Have you been to a Perkins lately?
I can believe they are going out of business.
We stopped going there two years ago.

[Value Buy]

Aug 7, 2019 16:12:57 GMT -5 busymom said:

It looks like Walgreens plans to close some locations:



www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2019/08/07/walgreens-to-close-200-stores-across-the-nation.html

Biggest mistake they made was merging with the European drugstore chain a few years ago, as well as dropping alcohol sales in most locations in the states. They have sort of shot theirselves in the foot. They anounced they were closing even more of the Boots Allince stores in Great Britain then here a couple of weeks ago.
We used to do all are pharma prescriptions with them but switched to CVS for better service.
Then CVS seemed to fall down on being able to fill 90 supplies for us so now we do Wal Mart pharmacy.
I believe CVS also announced some store closings as both companies overbuilt in many cities.

[busymom]

Add Pizza Hut to the list of restaurants that are closing locations:



www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/Pizza-Hut-Closing-Hundreds-of-Dine-in-Restaurants-527706501.html

[Value Buy]

Aug 8, 2019 17:01:09 GMT -5 busymom said:

Add Pizza Hut to the list of restaurants that are closing locations:



www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/Pizza-Hut-Closing-Hundreds-of-Dine-in-Restaurants-527706501.html

Again, a business decision where they are lowering hiring needs by taking out the sitdown restaurant and salad bars, going to a smaller footprint sq. ftg. wise with no front end help or dishwashers for the restaurant.
The new shops are in small strip shopping centers with carry out and pick up only.
Smaller rent costs fewer employees equals bigger profits. In our Florida home location they did this last year.
I will miss the salad bar section plus numerous pizza choices.......

[Tiny]

Good thing there are so many good jobs available: 

Job losses due to corporate bankruptcy at great recession levels: 

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bankruptcy-related-job-losses-invoke-grim-reminders-of-great-recession/ar-AAFqBUK


I'm seeing house prices dropping (as in housing coming down 20K to 30K on asking prices sometimes more)  in the handful of areas I watch.... the prices were stupidly high so I'm not too surprised but I wasn't thinking they'd drop that much on nearly ALL the houses that have been for sale for more than 60 days.  The houses just coming on the market are coming in at the lower prices...  Not sure if this is helping them to sell or not.... 

Also, I'm getting a little sea sick from watching all the market downs and ups and downs and ups and downs and ups -  it's like it's hit a plateau (and it's just bouncing...) 

[Value Buy]

Aug 8, 2019 17:34:02 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Good thing there are so many good jobs available: 

Job losses due to corporate bankruptcy at great recession levels: 

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bankruptcy-related-job-losses-invoke-grim-reminders-of-great-recession/ar-AAFqBUK


I'm seeing house prices dropping (as in housing coming down 20K to 30K on asking prices sometimes more)  in the handful of areas I watch.... the prices were stupidly high so I'm not too surprised but I wasn't thinking they'd drop that much on nearly ALL the houses that have been for sale for more than 60 days.  The houses just coming on the market are coming in at the lower prices...  Not sure if this is helping them to sell or not.... 

Also, I'm getting a little sea sick from watching all the market downs and ups and downs and ups and downs and ups -  it's like it's hit a plateau (and it's just bouncing...) 

Some hot housing markets on the west coast have softened because the Chinese government has stoped citizens from moving money asets over here. Canada has a worse problem than we do with falling housing prices on this very issue. The west and east coast also have a problem now they cannot deduct all their property taxers on their taxes with the IRS, thus creating a barrier to high price homes where people are stuck with a real world tax bill where the IRS is no longer subsidizing states for their high tax bills at the expense of the Federal government.

[Tiny]

Aug 9, 2019 10:19:16 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Aug 8, 2019 17:34:02 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Good thing there are so many good jobs available: 

Job losses due to corporate bankruptcy at great recession levels: 

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bankruptcy-related-job-losses-invoke-grim-reminders-of-great-recession/ar-AAFqBUK


I'm seeing house prices dropping (as in housing coming down 20K to 30K on asking prices sometimes more)  in the handful of areas I watch.... the prices were stupidly high so I'm not too surprised but I wasn't thinking they'd drop that much on nearly ALL the houses that have been for sale for more than 60 days.  The houses just coming on the market are coming in at the lower prices...  Not sure if this is helping them to sell or not.... 

Also, I'm getting a little sea sick from watching all the market downs and ups and downs and ups and downs and ups -  it's like it's hit a plateau (and it's just bouncing...) 

Some hot housing markets on the west coast have softened because the Chinese government has stoped citizens from moving money asets over here. Canada has a worse problem than we do with falling housing prices on this very issue. The west and east coast also have a problem now they cannot deduct all their property taxers on their taxes with the IRS, thus creating a barrier to high price homes where people are stuck with a real world tax bill where the IRS is no longer subsidizing states for their high tax bills at the expense of the Federal government.

Yes.   I see that.  I'm not that interested in what the very wealthy do with realestate (other than to laugh at their cheezy McMansions when they build/buy them).      I tend to watch property values in existing neighborhoods were "everyday" people live.     You know the people who work at the places (that are not your employer) or provide services (that are not your employer)  that you frequent on a daily or weekly or monthly basis. They have to live somewhere.       On one hand, it's good that the 'offering' price for houses are dropping. Maybe the household with a 60K or 80K income will be better able to transition to home ownership (FWIW:  those are the household income levels of young teachers/police/fire/professionals).     On the other hand, the new lower prices (and selling prices)  maybe  LESS than the what the people who bought within the last year paid.    Who doesn't love when their newly purchased house looses value.     
 

[haapai]

The ten-year fell below the two today. 

link

I'd say that it was here. 

Besides getting a little smarter about how I buy toilet paper and food and finding some mechanism for pushing the savings into equities, there isn't much that I can do to adapt to this news. 

[countrygirl2]

Son and I had been talking about this for awhile.  I told him be careful because he had been aggressive in stocks.  I asked him today how he was doing.  He said 2 weeks ago he sold everything and took his gains and went to cash and bonds.  He said if it gets low enough he will buy low.  I told him be careful, right now hard to say what the low will be, before he jumps back in.  


I heard them interview a very old 78 year old, farmer in Iowa today.  They asked what he thought about all this, he said trump is nuts.  the guy has no idea what he is doing, he is killing farmers.  I know at least one of hubs friends who farms about 1200 acres is very worried, so some are.  

trump has no policy, he is tweeting and jerking stuff around so no one knows what he will do next.  This is not a consistent policy.  He is going to do like bush, take a strong and growing economy they were left with and destroy it.  But this time going to be worse.  Looks like he is going to bankrupt the US like he did his companies.  The old guy is right he is nuts. He is blaming all this on the feds instead of his own tariff BS, he has no clue.  Always someone elses fault.  I hope it recovers is going to hurt a bunch of folks if it doesn't.