Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

[countrygirl2]

It's like when Clinton came in, country was in the doldrums.  I remember in Houston after he got elected things started getting better, jobs starting all over.  Hubs said they know when dems are in the country will boom.  He got out and bush and cheney started screaming how bad the country was, they jawboned it down.  Same with Obama, now will be same with trump.  Damn, people never learn. 4 more years, we will be a 3rd world country.

[Tiny]

There's this:     

www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/fast-food-sales-surge-buoying-stocks-but-that-wont-satisfy-for-long/ar-AAFQXBM

Jist of the  article:     
1.) fast food companies see a surge in profit -   but the profit isn't from more people buying fast food - it was from an increase in prices.  
2.) none of the big fast food companies are seeing more foot traffic and are planning on it not increasing.  

That doesn't bode well for the future.   

I had an article on Frieght shipments still dropping - but can't find it.   It wasn't about how well the companies were doing - it was literally about less and less stuff being moved from point A to point B.    Got a relative who's a "drives a train" type engineer... and he's reporting layoffs.  He's worked long enough to not be in the first or second or third round of layouts.. but the third round is starting... and if it goes beyond that he will be laid off.    The "lay off" thing is one of the hazards of the job, as the frieght companies work to match supply of workers with demand.  He thought he had enough 'seniority' to not have to worry so much about a 'layoff', but here he is...  on the plus side - if he is laid off he would be in the group called back to work first (before all the other people who got laid off/let go).    Also, he's very close to what amounts to "tenure" and if he can get the next job up - the threat of lay off goes away - unless something like another Great Recession happens.  The typical ups and downs of frieght traffic won't effect him  

I'm assuming that the stuff that gets moved from point A to point B is stuff that generates jobs/money.  If less stuff is being moved that means there is less demand and so fewer jobs and less money being generated (or sustained). 

Good thing consumers are buying stuff!   I heard Consumer confidence was up and people were buying stuff.    which doesn't sync with the lack of stuff being moved from Point A to Point B.   Or the fact that fewer people are buying fast food.     

It's weird out there.   Really weird.   

 
(I'm seeing alot of houses being offered at below 2008 prices -- in the areas I watch. -  That's not so bad if you bought on the downswing/after the crash.  it's kinda sucky if you held your house hoping the prices would come back.  They did - but only for a short while.     Again.  I know it's location location location.  And the 3 areas I watch prices are flat or falling.    Which is good for me!  I'm bottom feeding for a new rental property.     

[countrygirl2]

Here a farmer friend said farmland has already gone from $7500 an acre to $3700, quite a drop.  I'm seeing 50 acres, 100 acres, smaller amounts for sale all over.  I'm guessing they are selling to try and keep afloat.  A lot of our farmers are old so likely have cash stashed but it costs a ton to plant a crop.  The guy that farmed my tiny farm said it cost him over a quarter million to plant each spring.  Prices are down. I noticed the car dealership that also sells RV's has almost cleared his lot and no new RV's are coming in.  Also the farm equipment seller just has a couple of big tractors for sale right now.  And I read that Elkhart, Indiana is a bell weather for coming recessions.  They said RV orders are down 20%, so there are indicators out there. 

I wonder if the figures on sales are being manipulated to make it look strong. With all the retail stores being closed down, Sears, Toys R Us, and on and on there has to be less shipping and less sales.  I cannot even find decent clothing to buy.  I just read an article saying that Pennys and Maceys are going to start selling used clothing from ThreadsUp, can you imagine? The one store really benefiting from this is Walmart, of course their sales are way up, why wouldn't they be.

This guy is taking our country down, day by day. 

[busymom]

Macy's is selling used clothing?!?     I think h*ll has officially frozen over.     (Now THAT's something I never imagined.  They've got an image to maintain, you know...)  

[Value Buy]

Aug 20, 2019 23:06:44 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Here a farmer friend said farmland has already gone from $7500 an acre to $3700, quite a drop.  I'm seeing 50 acres, 100 acres, smaller amounts for sale all over.  I'm guessing they are selling to try and keep afloat.  A lot of our farmers are old so likely have cash stashed but it costs a ton to plant a crop.  The guy that farmed my tiny farm said it cost him over a quarter million to plant each spring.  Prices are down. I noticed the car dealership that also sells RV's has almost cleared his lot and no new RV's are coming in.  Also the farm equipment seller just has a couple of big tractors for sale right now.  And I read that Elkhart, Indiana is a bell weather for coming recessions.  They said RV orders are down 20%, so there are indicators out there. 

I wonder if the figures on sales are being manipulated to make it look strong. With all the retail stores being closed down, Sears, Toys R Us, and on and on there has to be less shipping and less sales.  I cannot even find decent clothing to buy.  I just read an article saying that Pennys and Maceys are going to start selling used clothing from ThreadsUp, can you imagine? The one store really benefiting from this is Walmart, of course their sales are way up, why wouldn't they be.

This guy is taking our country down, day by day. 

In regards to small farms now selling out, there is nothing new with that. Small farms are not economically viable. Farmers today need hundreds of acres to be viable based on the cost of doing the business. As the older farmers quit the farm, the kids are not interested, so they sell out or rent it out to a neighboring farm. 
This week many retailers reported quarterly earnings.
Lowes
Home Depot
Target
Even of all things, Nordstrums
There were a couple of others but they escape my  mind right now.
All way above expectations of profit dollars and sales and all reported consumer confidence is good regardless of negative reports. Check out these companies and see what their sales and earnings were for the just ending quarter.
Yes, the mall department store is disappearing but others are still going strong, especially if they have a strong internet presence.

[countrygirl2]

It's likely location, our area is losing stores like crazy.  Only 1 new one coming in, Ross Dress for Less, they never impressed me.  

These are not small farmers selling out, these are large farmers, I think they are selling out a few acres here and there to help with expenses. But I see some that are being auctioned too. They go to banks or farm credit to borrow money, when land prices are way down, that is really going to impact them.

Right now people here are working.  They aren't making much but they can find 2 or 3 jobs if they want to.  Good pay would help them so much more, but not going to happen.  They can't pull themselves out and when the next recession finally hits, they are just down more.  

[busymom]

Del Monte is closing 2 of their canning plants:  one in MN, and the other in IL.  Minnesota is losing 350 jobs, but I have no information on the number of people losing jobs in Illinois.

[Tiny]

This is interesting... weren't the tarriff suppose to help American manufacturing?

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/americas-manufacturing-sector-shrank-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/ar-AAGb33A

(This would go along with the less freight being moved issue...)

If American consumers are buying so much stuff (the economy is great - and it's driven by consumer spending) -- where is all the stuff Americans are buying coming from if we are making less stuff? And how is America being Made Great Again if we're buying more stuff from foreign countries?'


ADDED:  here we go:   I guess the manufacturers cutting back aren't on Trump's "approved" list...   He is obviously winnowing  the chaff from  American businesses.     Or is he playing favorites?  He does seem to like to compare himself to God (and for some denominations of Christians God plays favorites).

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bibles-but-not-textbooks-trumps-tariff-exemptions-pick-winners-and-losers/ar-AAGaO5f

[djAdvocate]

I watch a lot of individual companies, and almost all of them are showing slowing revenue growth.

it is weird that this is not showing up in GDP yet, but I am pretty confident that it will, soon.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 22, 2019 22:31:08 GMT -5 busymom said:

Del Monte is closing 2 of their canning plants:  one in MN, and the other in IL.  Minnesota is losing 350 jobs, but I have no information on the number of people losing jobs in Illinois.

this is totally anecdotal, but we just had a major machine order to DelMonte.

it is going to one of their California plants.

I probably should not disclose more than that, for reasons of confidentiality and privacy.

[djAdvocate]

I just looked up interest rates in two of the three countries I am considering expatriating to. they are at 0.05%

that is not a very optimistic interest rate.  they are both in Europe, fyi.

[countrygirl2]

If trump gets in again I wish we could move, as its going to be horrible living here. He will likely get his other supreme court pick and they are filling federal courts with conservatives.  Old folks like us and others disabled, etc are going to lose all kinds of benefits.  People are going to get very poor and probably hungry  if they manage to cut what they want.  Talk about homelessness it will be rampant.

And who knows what else he will do, make the country polluted again, kill farm revenue, kill epa regs even more.  This will become in short order a nasty, 3rd world country with hordes of pregnant women that can't afford the kids they carry.  Sad, sad.

[OldCoyote]

Aug 26, 2019 0:38:31 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

If trump gets in again I wish we could move, as its going to be horrible living here. He will likely get his other supreme court pick and they are filling federal courts with conservatives.  Old folks like us and others disabled, etc are going to lose all kinds of benefits.  People are going to get very poor and probably hungry  if they manage to cut what they want.  Talk about homelessness it will be rampant.

And who knows what else he will do, make the country polluted again, kill farm revenue, kill epa regs even more.  This will become in short order a nasty, 3rd world country with hordes of pregnant women that can't afford the kids they carry.  Sad, sad.

Where would you move to?

[busymom]

Aug 26, 2019 0:38:31 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

If trump gets in again I wish we could move, as its going to be horrible living here. He will likely get his other supreme court pick and they are filling federal courts with conservatives.  Old folks like us and others disabled, etc are going to lose all kinds of benefits.  People are going to get very poor and probably hungry  if they manage to cut what they want.  Talk about homelessness it will be rampant.

And who knows what else he will do, make the country polluted again, kill farm revenue, kill epa regs even more.  This will become in short order a nasty, 3rd world country with hordes of pregnant women that can't afford the kids they carry.  Sad, sad.

    Yup.  He's turning us into one of those sh*thole countries he's complaining about.  

[countrygirl2]

Denmark, Canada, but to cold for me, we cannot afford to leave anyway.  They only take the very rich, we are just ok,

[haapai]

According to my state public radio, our state may already be in recession.

www.michiganradio.org/post/michigan-could-already-be-early-stage-recession

Slightly more alarmingly, my state entered recession before any other state the last time. It doesn't help that my old econ prof was giving micro-quote back then too.

It may be unrelated, but my employer (which operates mostly within my own state) has recently tightened up its attendance policy and policies for requesting time off. It is now significantly more difficult to request time off in a timely manner and the risk of taking an unexcused absence has at least doubled. My employer has a tendency to relax it's time off and attendance policies when the employment market is tight and tends to tighten them when unemployment rises.


OTOH, this thread is constructed in a way that collects and amplifies our worst Chicken Little impulses. I come to it to report only bad signs that I have seen. I'm getting several windows replaced in the next month but there's no thread for that.

[Tiny]

Aug 27, 2019 10:02:05 GMT -5 haapai said:

OTOH, this thread is constructed in a way that collects and amplifies our worst Chicken Little impulses. I come to it to report only bad signs that I have seen. I'm getting several windows replaced in the next month but there's no thread for that.

     I also think the next recession will be driven by more than just one area and it won't be as bad (or as global) as the last one. 

I've starting to envision it as an older car... the wiper blades might be worn and old and streaking the windshield, but you don't use them often.   Then maybe the auto door lock stops working but you can live with that, maybe the seat cover gets a tear - but you can live with that, and then the  gas gauge stops working but it's your commuter car and you have a routine for gassing up so it's not that big a deal.  Then you get a dent (that doesn't effect the ability to drive the car) and you let it go. And then the truck lock fails - so you have to tie down the trunk lid.  Maybe the driver's side visor cracks off - so it's a bit of a trick to use it (you can't just flip it down).   And then you realize you have a driveable car - but it's shitty looking and has lost alot of value - so sellng it or using it a trade in isn't gonna net you as much as you had hoped.    

[countrygirl2]

I see that here now. Also vehicles being towed in.  That happens when things get bad. Lots of foreclosures and tax sales here coming up.  But I still see lots of people eating out.  There is really only a Walmart here for shopping and restaurants are about all else that is here. Really conflicting signals.  But hearing farmers in Indiana are going to lose around $2 billion in farm income, so that can't be good.

[Value Buy]

There are three important items that can result in a recession, but two of the three could stop one from happening 

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/this-is-the-factor-thats-likely-to-determine-whether-theres-a-us-recession/ar-AAGv9EF?li=BBnb7Kz

[Value Buy]

Aug 27, 2019 23:56:00 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I see that here now. Also vehicles being towed in.  That happens when things get bad. Lots of foreclosures and tax sales here coming up.  But I still see lots of people eating out.  There is really only a Walmart here for shopping and restaurants are about all else that is here. Really conflicting signals.  But hearing farmers in Indiana are going to lose around $2 billion in farm income, so that can't be good.

vehicles get towed when they breakdown or have a flat. 
A recession may happen but right now, until we see many plant closures, and not just one or two, from coast to coast, and people laid of work, we will be ok.
All the bs talk about the stock markets and we are down about 2% for the entire month. Based on news reports on cable and televison outlets you would have thought the market was crashing ala 1929.
You own several rental units locally and everyone is paying their rent yet you claim everything is in the gutter locally.

[countrygirl2]

These vehicles are being towed in with tow ropes by other people like in the poor days, no wrecker, no going to the mechanic.  We had a great mechanic shop in town and he closed down, age?  His mom did the books, he had mechanics but he too worked, that's been in the last 6 months or so.  Now thinking about it since then I'm seeing this a lot more, they were honest and fair and he was constantly swamped.  Noone in to take their place.

This county always has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state if not the highest.  and many of the jobs pay $10 an hour, so its a problem here a lot.  We have farmers, that might be had, that are very wealthy here, new homes, swimming pools, etc and a whole subset that are very poor.  But we have a high rate of drug abuse in southern Indiana so that may contribute to it. Our county is dependent on farmers at the top, coal miners next, and they are always getting laid off, and a power plant, our 3 main employers.  There are a few little plants but the rest is Walmart and fast food.

[tyfighter3]

Countrygirl2, is that Electric Cars your talking about being Towed?

[OldCoyote]

Countrygirl I know you are hoping and praying for a recession before the elections,, to get Trump out.

From where I sit the economy looks really good. Housing is booming, fact is they are have trouble finding houses to sell.

Business for me is good.

[countrygirl2]

No, electric cars, old junkers mainly.

I never hope for a recession to many people hurt, but I sure am wishing for him to be out.  He personifies evil and everything a democracy does not want or need.  Trying to be a dictator of old, we do not need nor want that.  Hope he keeps eating that junk food.

[Miss Tequila]

Aug 27, 2019 8:03:39 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Denmark, Canada, but to cold for me, we cannot afford to leave anyway.  They only take the very rich, we are just ok,

So other countries have criteria before allowing people into their country?  interesting....

[countrygirl2]

If we were younger and employable its much easier to immigrate and become citizens, but older retired people don't seem to be as welcome.  If this country continues down the trump path it won't be fit to live in.


Today he rolled back regulations on energy efficient light bulbs. I would think he would use them in his buildings, saves quite a bit.

[Value Buy]

Sept 4, 2019 17:18:56 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

If we were younger and employable its much easier to immigrate and become citizens, but older retired people don't seem to be as welcome.  If this country continues down the trump path it won't be fit to live in.


Today he rolled back regulations on energy efficient light bulbs. I would think he would use them in his buildings, saves quite a bit.

Think you are wrong. Watch HGTV.
It always has programs on the weekend where people are moving from either Canada or the U.S. who are moving to Mexico, countries in central and south America or a Carribean island who are retirees. They do not seem worried about being accepted by the host country, and most are doing it for the warm weather and cheap living costs without giving up citizenship.

[Value Buy]

Okay people...worried about a recession?
There was a report on private payrolls this morning. Higher than expected....
And there is this.
DOW up 13% since December 31st 2018
S&P 500 up 17% since December 31st
Nasdaq up 20% since the same date.
Markets look like they willhate up again today, so if you believe what you post, I suggest you sell everything in the stock market today, and get out now!
Even the manufacturing and payroll costs were stable. Yes, not growing but still stable.
Quit talking yourself into economic failure.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2019 10:27:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

There are three important items that can result in a recession, but two of the three could stop one from happening 

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/this-is-the-factor-thats-likely-to-determine-whether-theres-a-us-recession/ar-AAGv9EF?li=BBnb7Kz

“We continue to see significant risk of a recession beginning within a year if sentiment and labor markets deteriorate further but still believe it is too soon to conclude that a recession is the most likely outcome.”

this is actually a really stupid statement for one and only one reason: a recession is a likely outcome of ECONOMIC EXPANSION.

betting against a recession is like betting against death.  you are going to lose, eventually.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 5, 2019 7:59:03 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Okay people...worried about a recession?
There was a report on private payrolls this morning. Higher than expected....
And there is this.
DOW up 13% since December 31st 2018
S&P 500 up 17% since December 31st
Nasdaq up 20% since the same date.
Markets look like they willhate up again today, so if you believe what you post, I suggest you sell everything in the stock market today, and get out now!
Even the manufacturing and payroll costs were stable. Yes, not growing but still stable.
Quit talking yourself into economic failure.

yeah, and the Dow and S&P are unchanged since Jan 2018, October 2018, and June 2019.

you are cherry picking. so am I. my point is that this market has headed pretty much nowhere for 2 years now. it is not clear at all where it is going in the intermediate term, nor is it clear where the economy is going.

for the record: my manufacturing business was FLAT for the four years ending December 31st of last year.  however, since September of last year, our monthly sales are +30% over nominal.  I am pretty sure it is related to the trade war, and the market sector we sell to (food and beverage).  so, this is not me "talking myself into economic failure".  this is me being realistic about an economy in the midst of a record expansion.  in lazzez faire (sic) capitalism, markets have periodic downturns.  it is STUPID to bet against them.