Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

[djAdvocate]

Feb 13, 2020 12:13:54 GMT -5 bean29 said:

I read on MSNBC in an article about why the Malls are dying that the middle class used to have 2/3 of the income in this country and now they have something like 40%.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/never-mind-the-internet-heres-whats-killing-malls/ar-BBZXavj?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/st_2015-12-09_middle-class-28/

I so have to get DH to get his parent's duplex on the market before the economy crashes again.

there is this "think" called the "virtuous cycle". what that means is that in a long term successful economy, all stakeholders get equal benefit. what that means is that incomes rise AT THE SAME RATE for all levels. that puts increasing income at disposal for the lower 90%, which they then spend on good and services, which benefits EVERYONE.  that is what we had for 150 years ending in 1973, when it abruptly stopped. productivity gains since that time have gone to the top 10%, and pretty much everyone else has gone nowhere. the cycle is broken in the US.

we (those of us on this board) are the first generation in the last six to not do better than our parents.  unless you happen to be in the top 10%, which many of us (present company included) are.

[countrygirl2]

Hubs and I did better then our parents but like he said some was being in the right place at the right time. But we also left here to do so, so had more opportunity. Mom started getting into the high cost of a supplement as hers wasn't cheap.

Our son is doing fine and if it all holds and he has a pension as a government worker he will be about the same as us. He won't have to save as much as we did. But he is thrifty, and I hope he stays married sometimes I wonder.  That will really set him back if he doesn't.

I am wondering about the employment numbers, I read yesterday that if one person is working 2 jobs they count that as 2 people working.  

[countrygirl2]

I'm am seeing some farm equipment and things around here for sale. I don't know if its a bankruptcy or not but a big farm and everything went up for sale.  It could be a death and dissolution of a farm so not sure. But travel trailers, boats, 4 wheelers, all that stuff in the winter you figure they need money. Hubs and I were talking and I said you know if I were a miner I would be saving every dime I could as its a dying industry. But I guess these guys live in a dream world telling themselves trump will save it and it will all be ok.  I do feel so sorry for them. 

[thyme4change]

Feb 3, 2020 19:26:57 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

for the record, this is slightly encouraging:

edit: this is for CHINA, for the record.  the global PMI is not nearly as reassuring.

Remind me what PMI stands for?

[countrygirl2]

You ought to read the article I read about trump not wanting things sold to other countries because of technology but all he is going to do is put people out of work here. They said China is already wanting companies to certify they don't have American components in things they are selling to them as they don't want to get cut off from resupply well, lets be honest because of what mood trump will be in tomorrow.  They said technology companies like one based in Delaware just went to Switzerland as they are afraid of what could happen and also scientists are worried about staying here. Trouble is all this won't hit until after the next election I imagine.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 14, 2020 10:11:53 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Feb 3, 2020 19:26:57 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

for the record, this is slightly encouraging:

edit: this is for CHINA, for the record.  the global PMI is not nearly as reassuring.

Remind me what PMI stands for?

Purchasing Manager's Index

[flow5]

Parse date: real-output; inflation



05/1/2019,,,,, 0.06 ,,,,, 0.10

06/1/2019,,,,, 0.05 ,,,,, 0.09

07/1/2019,,,,, 0.06 ,,,,, 0.09

08/1/2019,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.09

09/1/2019,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.10

10/1/2019,,,,, 0.01 ,,,,, 0.07

11/1/2019 ,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.09

12/1/2019,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.07

01/1/2020,,,,, 0.10 ,,,,, 0.13 *

02/1/2020,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.13

03/1/2020,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.09

04/1/2020,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.08

05/1/2020,,,,, 0.03 ,,,,, 0.09

06/1/2020,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.09



* = sharp drop in money flows, volume X's velocity