Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

[tyfighter3]

WHO CARES about Russia?

[thyme4change]

Jul 30, 2018 11:50:37 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

WHO CARES about Russia?

We share a planet, and they can get to us at any time. We need to care.

[countrygirl2]

Russia and China 'Furiously' Buying Up Gold As “a Global Currency ...

heartlandpreciousmetals.com/russia-and-china-furiously-buying-up-gold-as-a-global-...



A larger global currency shift is underway… And it may be happening much more quickly than anyone has realized. Things are definitely in motion. Call it a ...



Gold Rush Vol. 2: Why is Russia Buying More Gold? - Sputnik ...

sputniknews.com/analysis/201802271062039316-russia-buys-gold/



Feb 27, 2018 - In January, Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) increased its holding of gold by almost 20 metric tons to 1,857 tons, hitting a historic high and outstripping China in gold reserves. But why does Russia need so much gold and how does it help the government to level currency risks?



Russia overtakes China in gold reserves race to end US dollar ...

www.rt.com/business/419820-russia-outpaces-china-gold/



Feb 26, 2018 - The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) boosted its holdings of gold by almost 20 metric ... Russian banks ramping up gold purchases at record pace ... two-thirds of all the gold mined in country, buying it from local banks, as the ...



Russians are hoarding gold while U.S. piles up debt - Washington Times

www.washingtontimes.com/.../russians-are-hoarding-gold-while-us-piles-up-de...



Feb 22, 2018 - While U.S. piles up debt, Russians are hoarding gold ... over the last several years has been the unyielding push from the Kremlin to buy gold.

Why China and Russia are buying so much gold - MarketWatch

www.marketwatch.com › Economy & Politics › Marsh on Monday

Aug 2, 2016 - China and Russia are buying lots of gold to add to their official reserves, ... Beijing and Moscow are building up gold stocks for a variety of ...



Why Is Russia Buying So Much Gold? | theTrumpet.com

www.thetrumpet.com/16005-why-is-russia-buying-so-much-gold



Jun 27, 2017 - Russia is loading up on gold. Since May 1, the Central Bank of Russia has added 700,000 troy ounces to their national gold reserve. That's as ...



U.S. Allowing China And Russia To Accumulate Gold On The Cheap ...

seekingalpha.com/.../4181069-u-s-allowing-china-russia-accumulate-gold-chea...



Jun 12, 2018 - U.S. suppression of paper gold price allows China and Russia to ... Central bank gold purchases up 42% in First Quarter. ... This anomaly presents a perfect opportunity for investors to buy some gold or shares of gold miners.



Russia Gold Buying Is Back – Buys One Million Ounces In January ...

news.goldcore.com/.../gold.../russia-gold-buying-back-buys-one-million-ounce...



Russia gold buying returned in January with the Russian central bank buying a very large 1 ... French Election Could See Euro Break Up – New Global Crisis

gold: When central banks are buying gold, should we just sit & watch ...

economictimes.indiatimes.com › Markets › Commodities › Views



Nov 2, 2017 - China, Russia and many Asian and West Asian central banks have ... To prop up their currencies, they have started accumulating gold to boost ...



"He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules" and Russia Is Getting the ...

schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/gold-makes-rules-russia-getting-gold/



Feb 7, 2018 - Last year's buying spree made Russia the sixth largest holder of gold in the world. And the Russians have almost caught up with the Chinese, ...





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[busymom]

Brookstone just announced they'e filing bankruptcy.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 30, 2018 11:50:37 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

WHO CARES about Russia?

Ones who want to continue to ignore the following, on different angles I'm sure you know what I mean..

Cramer looks at the atypical comeback in shares of Dollar Tree and Dollar General

dollar store stocks, which tend to do well only when business slows down...

In an improving economy with low unemployment and steadily rising wages, CNBC's Jim Cramer wouldn't expect the dollar stores to be doing so well....

Gotta luv the "what's old is new" trend with gold though, eh?

[countrygirl2]

The Dollar Stores are doing well because folks are poor. They are struggling.

[Deleted]

 The unemployment drops again.


Quote;  The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for a gain of 193,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 2.7 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from June and matching projections, while the jobless rate ticked down to 3.9 percent as forecast.

time.com/5357204/july-unemployment-rate/

[countrygirl2]

Car sales are falling with interest rates increasing and fuel prices rising, per WSJ.

Also there are lots of smaller businesses starting to hurt, an example was a grower of red kidney beans.  They buy from surrounding farmers too.  The lady over the company got a buyer to take a load in Europe, it was $23k and a $6k tariff on it.  She persuaded them to take it but she said they cancelled a $92k order.  They can't sell them with the tariffs as they said it was a more money with tariffs then people there will pay.  The 1 ton bags are stacking up.  She said the harvest is starting and they have a big warehouse that they are going to fill with this years harvest and no outlets to sell to.  She only has 33 employees but has had to lay quite a few off already.  She said they can likely survive this year but can't if it continues.  She is getting ready to fly to Brazil and see if she can develop some markets. I am reading examples like this all over. And farmers are afraid once other countries take over their markets they will never get them back.  Smaller producers are hurting.  I have read pork exports have pretty much come to a standstill they are overflowing as domestic usage can't take up the slack.  And they can only stockpile and keep this type of product for so long. 

Producers of heavy equipment are worried, the tariffs will take a toll on them too and they cannot compete with machines produced overseas and are worried about their markets.  It may not have an effect yet, but it is coming and its going to snowball.  If you think something like this cannot cause a recession then please read history, protectionism has caused it before.  If he sticks to this path and puts on more tariffs we are in a world of hurt.

Oh and by the way we heard he has exempted some Russian steel producer of tariffs so it can be brought in here tariff free. Make who great again?  

And what about other big countries sounding like they may go on the gold standard?  Right now its all dollar denominated, know what happens when that is no longer true?  Of course you do.  And deficits far as the eye can see, very bad stuff.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 4, 2018 12:19:17 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

 The unemployment drops again.


Quote;  The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for a gain of 193,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 2.7 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from June and matching projections, while the jobless rate ticked down to 3.9 percent as forecast.

time.com/5357204/july-unemployment-rate/

This is precisely what the dollar store earnings are showing.

After peaking in 2013 due to the worst economic recovery from a recession in post war history, food stamps have been trending down and hit levels in 2017 not see since 2010.

In other words, The "dollar store economy" has continued to improve, and now the dollar store has had to bring in better product lines because their customers have become more discerning(more money).

Further, while the western media continues to ramble about the "new gold standard", etc,etc... The market seems to have a different idea on whom is the most at risk going forward: China’s stock market plunge will not force the country to give up on its trade war with US

[Deleted]

Aug 4, 2018 17:26:55 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Car sales are falling with interest rates increasing and fuel prices rising, per WSJ.

Also there are lots of smaller businesses starting to hurt, an example was a grower of red kidney beans.  They buy from surrounding farmers too.  The lady over the company got a buyer to take a load in Europe, it was $23k and a $6k tariff on it.  She persuaded them to take it but she said they cancelled a $92k order.  They can't sell them with the tariffs as they said it was a more money with tariffs then people there will pay.  The 1 ton bags are stacking up.  She said the harvest is starting and they have a big warehouse that they are going to fill with this years harvest and no outlets to sell to.  She only has 33 employees but has had to lay quite a few off already.  She said they can likely survive this year but can't if it continues.  She is getting ready to fly to Brazil and see if she can develop some markets. I am reading examples like this all over. And farmers are afraid once other countries take over their markets they will never get them back.  Smaller producers are hurting.  I have read pork exports have pretty much come to a standstill they are overflowing as domestic usage can't take up the slack.  And they can only stockpile and keep this type of product for so long. 

Producers of heavy equipment are worried, the tariffs will take a toll on them too and they cannot compete with machines produced overseas and are worried about their markets.  It may not have an effect yet, but it is coming and its going to snowball.  If you think something like this cannot cause a recession then please read history, protectionism has caused it before.  If he sticks to this path and puts on more tariffs we are in a world of hurt.

Oh and by the way we heard he has exempted some Russian steel producer of tariffs so it can be brought in here tariff free. Make who great again?  

And what about other big countries sounding like they may go on the gold standard?  Right now its all dollar denominated, know what happens when that is no longer true?  Of course you do.  And deficits far as the eye can see, very bad stuff.

Noticable lack of a complete story here.  This will play well in politics.

[countrygirl2]

Ok, lack of complete story give it about 6 months you will be seeing a more complete story

and unless he backs off some of the stuff he is doing it won't be pretty.  

[Value Buy]

Aug 10, 2018 19:22:11 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Ok, lack of complete story give it about 6 months you will be seeing a more complete story

and unless he backs off some of the stuff he is doing it won't be pretty.  

You seem to be such a debbie downer when it comes to Trump, and yet you continue to fix up homes and rent them out at local market rates. If you truly believed what you say on the boards, I would think you would be selling everything now before the real estate market collapses, or your renters move out on you........since obviously in your world they will not be able to pay the rent very soon.
Meanwhile, heck yes, we were considering buying the big SUV (I prefer the big Ford Truck, but my wife would need a step ladder to get in and out) and decided with rising gas prices plus outrageous tax increase in the state of Indiana on each gallon of gas, not to do it right now.
That said, out stock investments are on fire, without any more NEW money going into them. Just reaping the profits and soon to have to take the minimum distributuions on our IRA'S
The glass is well more than half full these days.

[tyfighter3]

Trade? Their will be A DEAL made soon between US and Mexico, Canada, and Europe.. China, will take longer because the Ruling Party don't care about their people. I think they call it ( What is the right word for it)? LOL

[countrygirl2]

Why sell them there is a real shortage here in this rural area of affordable very nice homes like we have, good or bad times.  Here the UE rate is highest in the state or near it but people still need homes.  I had 30 to 40 inquiries on a mobile but only 2 to 3 I would even consider.  Unless trump stops this tariff deal we will see bad times.  I think everyone is banking on him doing so.  Also none of us were alive that remember some of the causes of the great depression, we might see it again with the borrowing, high interest, etc.

No Debbie Downer, just knowing what goes up must come down.

[verrip1]

Aug 10, 2018 13:54:31 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Aug 4, 2018 17:26:55 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Car sales are falling with interest rates increasing and fuel prices rising, per WSJ.

Also there are lots of smaller businesses starting to hurt, an example was a grower of red kidney beans.  They buy from surrounding farmers too.  The lady over the company got a buyer to take a load in Europe, it was $23k and a $6k tariff on it.  She persuaded them to take it but she said they cancelled a $92k order.  They can't sell them with the tariffs as they said it was a more money with tariffs then people there will pay.  The 1 ton bags are stacking up.  She said the harvest is starting and they have a big warehouse that they are going to fill with this years harvest and no outlets to sell to.  She only has 33 employees but has had to lay quite a few off already.  She said they can likely survive this year but can't if it continues.  She is getting ready to fly to Brazil and see if she can develop some markets. I am reading examples like this all over. And farmers are afraid once other countries take over their markets they will never get them back.  Smaller producers are hurting.  I have read pork exports have pretty much come to a standstill they are overflowing as domestic usage can't take up the slack.  And they can only stockpile and keep this type of product for so long. 

Producers of heavy equipment are worried, the tariffs will take a toll on them too and they cannot compete with machines produced overseas and are worried about their markets.  It may not have an effect yet, but it is coming and its going to snowball.  If you think something like this cannot cause a recession then please read history, protectionism has caused it before.  If he sticks to this path and puts on more tariffs we are in a world of hurt.

Oh and by the way we heard he has exempted some Russian steel producer of tariffs so it can be brought in here tariff free. Make who great again?  

And what about other big countries sounding like they may go on the gold standard?  Right now its all dollar denominated, know what happens when that is no longer true?  Of course you do.  And deficits far as the eye can see, very bad stuff.

Noticable lack of a complete story here.  This will play well in politics.

Anecdotal support for predictions of the end of the world as we know it play fully well over at the Politics board.  It's rather wasted over here with people who actually know something about economics and markets.  Not that the True Believers will ever acknowledge that.

[countrygirl2]

Ok, we shall see, I hope it does not.  But how many busts have we seen that many said would not happen?  The experts got caught in a lot of them.  I'm sure no expert but lots of writing on the wall.

The economy as you know is cyclical and what is happening now will have huge impacts.  You can think your way, I shall think mine, in the short term I'm sure you are correct, but if the current path isn't changed, mine may come to be.  I sure hope not, would love to be wrong.  

Whatever happens won't impact us to much, we buy for cash so can get by if need be with just basic holding costs so could lower rents though I don't anticipate having too.  

[Deleted]

Aug 10, 2018 19:22:11 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Ok, lack of complete story give it about 6 months you will be seeing a more complete story

and unless he backs off some of the stuff he is doing it won't be pretty.  

Still lack of a complete story in your post.

There are plenty of shallow threads in politics.

Your post will fit better with those.


How do you know it won't be pretty if you want to go that route ?

[countrygirl2]

It's ok, listening to the market today, some are going into cash, some big investors and I'm listening to a lot of this and yep I'm a believer in what they are talking about for the next 6 months to a year.  Lots of indicators for the future and not looking like it is now.  But I'm sure you are a lot smarter then me in these things so I will stay off your forum.

[buystoys]

A lot of people spread a doom and gloom message with DJT was elected President.  I'm pretty certain that didn't happen.  In fact, I remember someone on this forum creating a thread supporting the negative outlook for the markets.  They asked who was going to go all cash.  IIRC, there were pretty nice growth trends over the next 12-18 months after his election.  Those who chose to sell their holdings locked in their losses.  Their choice.

The market is meant to go up and down.  If you want to look at it from a negative light, at some point you will be correct.  That doesn't mean you read indicators right or somehow just "knew" the market was going to go down.  There are always waves and troughs.  I remember the dot com bust and the housing bust.  I did extremely well in the markets during the return to an even keel.  I know you're mostly cash, Pat, from what you've said in the past.  So you would presumably be OK should your projections turn out to be true. 

[Value Buy]

Aug 13, 2018 18:21:46 GMT -5 buystoys said:

A lot of people spread a doom and gloom message with DJT was elected President.  I'm pretty certain that didn't happen.  In fact, I remember someone on this forum creating a thread supporting the negative outlook for the markets.  They asked who was going to go all cash.  IIRC, there were pretty nice growth trends over the next 12-18 months after his election.  Those who chose to sell their holdings locked in their losses.  Their choice.

The market is meant to go up and down.  If you want to look at it from a negative light, at some point you will be correct.  That doesn't mean you read indicators right or somehow just "knew" the market was going to go down.  There are always waves and troughs.  I remember the dot com bust and the housing bust.  I did extremely well in the markets during the return to an even keel.  I know you're mostly cash, Pat, from what you've said in the past.  So you would presumably be OK should your projections turn out to be true. 

I imagine there was not one soul here who predicted the end of the American civilization with Trump's election, who pulled one penny from the markets.
Not one.
They rode the market up all the way with the conservatives, but too afraid to admit it.

[Value Buy]

Aug 13, 2018 16:03:43 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

It's ok, listening to the market today, some are going into cash, some big investors and I'm listening to a lot of this and yep I'm a believer in what they are talking about for the next 6 months to a year.  Lots of indicators for the future and not looking like it is now.  But I'm sure you are a lot smarter then me in these things so I will stay off your forum.

Yes I listened also, but guess what, there are always talkinhg heads saying buy! buy! buy! and another group saying sell! sell! sell! I think you were referencing the billionaire that owns the Dallas Mavericks discussing his holdings? Two short positions four long positions and major cash holding.......A billionaire sitting on cash hoard? Okay, not the brightest thing to do......
It is up to the audience to make the probable correct choice after listening to the talking heads. Try watching "Fast Money" at 4pm central time on CNBC. These brokers and traders talk a good game, but every few weeks they show old clips of their investing choices and guess what? They seem to have as many losers as winners........
Back in the dot.com era they were screaming,  buy the INTERNET STOCKS they will never go down! When everyone says it, it is probably the time to get out of Dodge.........when you are hearing both arguments, you have an active basically positive thinking outcome, investment wise.

And I doubt he is trying to chase you away from "his forum" 
He and I have a different opinion of the state of the economy from your opinion. So be it, but it is still ok to discuss positions.

[Deleted]

Aug 13, 2018 16:03:43 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

It's ok, listening to the market today, some are going into cash, some big investors and I'm listening to a lot of this and yep I'm a believer in what they are talking about for the next 6 months to a year.  Lots of indicators for the future and not looking like it is now.  But I'm sure you are a lot smarter then me in these things so I will stay off your forum.

Not my forum.  I see the tariffs as an intent to slow.

I see the economy on the verge of overheating/inflation.

Tariffs are just one way to slow it down a bit, with the added benefit of collecting tax on that slowdown effort.

This puts some of the cost on NAFTA partners, that still use tariffs on us.

Slowing the economy to aid the targeted 2% inflation, by interest rate increases alone, only adds to the cost of the federal governments debt maintenance and deficit spending.

We're currently at 2.95% and trending up.


Year
 2018
 
Jan.  2.07%

Feb.  2.21%

Mar.  2.36%

April  2.46%

May  2.80%

June  2.87%

July   2.95%


inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/currentinflation.asp

[countrygirl2]

Since I'm shallow just moving on.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 14, 2018 19:09:38 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Since I'm shallow just moving on.

Pat, we have known each other for years...it wasn't only two years ago when we had a conversation very similar to what you are talking about above IRT President Trump and the economy. You have told me for years, and especially almost two years ago, you swore up and down the economy was toast.(have to give you credit for consistency).

While I'll give ya that the next cycle is a buying opportunity, the USA's economy is not going to have a problem with it.

I mean, there was literally a coordinated attack in Sweden last night and basically nothing anywhere about it.

The data D23 just posted about rates, and the markets worry about EM - especially China - mixed with the war is the story.

The USA has been the engine of growth for decades and nothing changed these past ones. China may have grown along with other EM, but what is going on now is the Great Stagnation is ending. The USA is gearing up and the threat of deflation that has hung over the global economy is tipping towards everyone else because they have been relying on cheap USDs to keep their BS debt ponzi system going. While an extra 1% growth in the US economy is great for world GDP; it nowhere comes close to eclipsing the amount of debt in Asia.

[Deleted]

Aug 14, 2018 19:09:38 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

Since I'm shallow just moving on.

Reply #97 posted Aug 4, 2018 at 5:26pm

Quote



Post by countrygirl2 on Aug 4, 2018 at 5:26pm

Car sales are falling with interest rates increasing and fuel prices rising, per WSJ.



1)  The Fed is increasing interest rates because of increasing inflationary pressure due to the low unemployment.  (chart on my previous post)  Tariffs will also slow the inflation pressure without adding to the hit on car sales (or any other large durable good) due to interest rate increases.

2)  Commodities ticker;  RBOB was at $1.98 about an hour ago.  This is quite low.  This tends to reflect on the types of vehicles bought versus actual units sold.  RBOB has been falling since last May.  This is the lack of other influence price fall usual, as the refineries move off of boutique areal fuel supplies for the summer months, which cost more to produce and specialty deliver. 


This is a rebuttal on just the first sentence on your somewhat political reply # 97, that I was referencing.  

Your due diligence is appreciated over here, when making claims, or politically aimed fear mongering.

I said your post (Reply #97) will fit better with those shallow threads in politics, not that you were shallow.

Easy to show me otherwise.

How shallow your posts appear, from here onwards, is up to you. 


I have no personal vendetta that I'm trying to accomplish here.

[ednkris]

I can't say anything about WSJ, but I work in the auto industry involving all different oem. The sales are booming with orders out the next 6 mos. Some at 20% above forecast orders. It's been like this since the election

[tyfighter3]

All you have to look at is WalMart.  Earnings and Forecast forward shows a booming economy. Tells you that people have jobs and more money to spend. I don't know how anybody can tell you with a straight face that THAT isn't TRUE.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Not trying to pile on countrygirl2; I'm only hitting back on this because we have known each other for years and I respect you and your family.

The reason it was mentioned above that true facts are required around these parts is because there is track record of correct analysis.(eg. 4.2% GDP print and current GDP now print 4.5%).. But more than that, BS political spin doesn't cloud the discussion.(the little there is).. normally I can't stand the spin ZH puts on data; but this is an amazingly well written article that clearly outlines how much Baizuo BS the mainstream media has been peddling; which a lot of people have been buying; and are subsequently making poor life choices.(As busy toys points out)

Christopher Steele Worked For Sanctioned Russian Oligarch While Composing Sham Dossier: Solomon

The September 2015 meeting between Ohr, Deripaska and several FBI agents in New York sought the Russian billionaire's assistance regarding organized crime investigations. That meeting was facilitated by Steele.

To recap: Bruce Ohr = the #4 official at the DOJ, met with a billionaire friend of Vladimir Putin, in a sit-down arranged by Christopher Steele. Steele and the DOJ, meanwhile, were accusing Donald Trump of collusion with Putin - while the Obama administration used Steele's dodgy dossier to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page. 

Talk about actual collusion!

For the record yes, I do believe these events and actions are accurate. A good friend of mine who used to post around here years ago is scary accurate in political and market related matters(like, invited onto TV and radio accurate), was plugged into the Democratic Party in the upper levels for years; and he has been saying the whole time it was the last administration that committed treason. His hope is DJT purges the Dem Party and allows it to return to its former glory.

So, not only are we not seeing signs of a recession in the US; it's looking REAL bad for media stocks.

[Value Buy]

Update......GDP was upped from 4.1% estimated to 4.2% today.
Unemployment still low, economy firing on all cylinders, Mexico confirming they are close to a trade deal, and Canada jumping in this morning saying they are working hard to come to an agreement by maybe, even tomorrow to the Deocrat's dismay!
Oh, the DOW back to February high, NASDAQ and S&P 500 hitting new highs

[Tiny]

I thought Ford was dying again (or are they not a major player)?  Is Ford going down good for the economy?  


What about housing?  Pending sales have dropped again.    Even while prices go up?   The two areas in which I watch real estate prices went to full blown bubble in June.   Sale prices are stupidly high (think 450K in very populated areas with median household incomes of 60K) even rents are stupidly high for the median income levels.    That sez "bad news" to me...  

What about inflation?   Due to the "booming" economy,  prices on consumer goods are going up. 

But what really bothers me is why haven't wages gone up?   If unemployment is so low why aren't wages rising?     
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

Yeah, I got a nice "bonus" last year - but that was a one time thing and got eaten up by raising property taxes and some raising expenses.  Yes, I did just get a raise (which was a good thing - because I have higher property taxes going forward forever) but it's not going very far (property taxes, other costs that went up).  The only way I would have more discretionary spending is if I changed how much I save/invest OR if I removed something I'm already spending discretionary spending on...  That's the same boat I've been in for the last 2 or so years.    That, to me, makes it feel like I do not have more money to spend.    How about you all?  Got more $$ to spend on discretionary spending than you did in the recent past? 

I can't be the only person in  this predicament.  

I haven't looked at consumer debt in a while.... how's that doing?  

Aren't those kind of signs of things aren't quite right?