Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

[countrygirl2]

We always have cash back and I would hope in a dire emergency we could cash in savings bonds, they are supposed to be pretty liquid but who knows the way things are going.

We do have 2 trucks, hubs is a 2006, its in good condition but we know he will need the next new vehicle. Mine is a 2017 and out here we need a 4 wheel drive. I was stupid when I bought the car and didn't get one. Didn't matter it was so low to the ground would not go in snow anyway, now

we can.

If we get to town or closer we have considered having just one car. We know things for us, our mobility, cognitive abilities and such are going to change with age. We are trying to stay one step ahead. Not sure we can. LOL!

[busymom]

They just approved another housing development in our community.  Starting prices are $100,000 higher than the new houses that were built behind us.  I just don't see how the bubble here can continue.     Around here, people just don't buy $400,000 houses, unless it's the well-to-do folks who live around the golf course.

[countrygirl2]

I was looking through statistics about this county.  I know there are lots of famers with $200k to half a million dollar

houses around here, doesn't show them.  Also looking at farm income and according to that stuff they must be broke.

Some of these guys farm 7000 acres.  Also says average farm equipment about $150k.  Well how are they reporting these

$200k tractors, semis, and all the other equipment they have, these guys have millions in that stuff.  Methinks things are

not getting reported very well.

But the population for the whole county is only about 21000.  So hard to sell very many high dollar houses here. Yet

I see lots of nice homes, the census data doesn't jive with what I'm seeing.

[NoNamePerson]

Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

Nope!
.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 31, 2018 7:06:34 GMT -5 NoNamePerson said:

Are we seeing early signs of our next recession?

Nope!
.

Vermont will pay people $10,000 to move there and work remotely

Vermont has a small and aging population, according to Joan Goldstein, commissioner of economic development for Vermont. "We recognize the need to recruit people to the state, and this is one of those efforts."...

...The US labor market has been thriving recently, making it difficult to retain workers. ....

Companies have been getting more generous and creative to compete for talent. Some have been increasing pay and changing payroll practices, while others are beefing up benefits, like offering help paying down student loan debts and flexible schedules

.


OTOH, at least one act of terror has been committed in Europe since Ramadan has begun and Erogden has put the Balkans on notice... Apparently, Italy is now racist because we all know the new comers to Europe are helping the economy.

Hate(market) + NA Economy (Love)= Next cycle. Thank God the US President cares about security and the US Economy.

[haapai]

Rukh is considering a cash-out refi to extinguish student loans.  Perhaps the housing madness is back. 

[countrygirl2]

It's like I read the other day, yes unemployment is way down, however, it takes many people

3 jobs for many people to make enough to live.  Wages are stagnant and rising little, the

effect of gutting labor unions has paid off for big business.  Too bad all these poor

souls can't afford to take off for a few weeks and bring everything to a standstill till

they can get a living wage and benefits.  But to far gone now to happen.


And so many are trump supporters that are just to dumb to get it.

[Tiny]

Sounds like rural places are loosing their retail bases:

www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/hundreds-of-retailers-arent-renewing-leases-putting-malls-at-risk.html

www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/first-this-town-lost-its-macys-then-sears-now-all-eyes-were-on-jc-penney/2018/01/01/644ea4a2-ecb7-11e7-b698-91d4e35920a3_story.html

And this one blames job losses (not Amazon)
www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2018/05/31/rural-iowa-retail-shopping-younkers-herberger-kmart-sears-jcpenny-mall-closing-stores-target-ottumwa/624676002/


So, what do you think happens when retail jobs ACROSS the country are lost and not replaced? This isn't a local thing.


I know the numbers say unemployment is low - but I'm really wondering what kind of jobs those are - and how many people have just 'given' up looking... I know quite a few Double Income families who have been making due with a Single Income (for health insurance) for a handful of years, because one spouse could not find a replacement job - sure they could be an Uber/Lyft driver...  they have cut back their lifestyle dramatically (one salary that was the lower of the original two).  I know several people who use to have well paying full time jobs who now have 2 or 3 or 4 side jobs and no insurance. I'm pretty sure they didn't reach Financial Independence and are living this way for fun.

[countrygirl2]

We are, lost Toys R Us, one of our movie theaters, Macys, Carsons, 

a furniture store, it would not surprise me to lose our Sears if they do

I think the mall will close.  It would leave only 1 major, Pennys.

I have been waiting on a part for a Kenmore sweeper since April,

going to cancel it, keeps saying backordered.  Also need one for my

other vacuum, I'm in a bind.  Need to buy one and Kenmore is pretty much

the top rated ones, but not buying another so now what do I do?


I have to order my cologne, buying clothes is a problem, this is a city

of about 50k to 75k and losing its stores.  We also draw from Illinois

and Indiana, so why?? Many people are getting so poor all they can afford

is Walmart, they will own this country.

[plugginaway22]

In the past 3 years my town lost Macy's, Kmart, Penneys, and now Bon Ton and Sears leaving. Online shopping is necessary or you drive an hour to larger city.

[Tiny]

With the number of retail stores dying off... I'm starting to wonder if people are just buying less stuff?  I'm having a hard time imagining that online sales are picking up all the slack.      

Is there less stuff to buy?   Do people shop less?     

[bean29]

Jun 11, 2018 9:46:11 GMT -5 Tiny said:

With the number of retail stores dying off... I'm starting to wonder if people are just buying less stuff?  I'm having a hard time imagining that online sales are picking up all the slack.      

Is there less stuff to buy?   Do people shop less?     

I am hoping now that some of the others went down, the ones remaining standing will survive. Macy's, Kohl's and JC Penney's will get most of Bon-Ton's business.

Kohl's, Target and Wal-Mart are reportedly ramping up to compete for the Toys R Us Business.  The Sears business has to go somewhere too. 

I am going to a baby shower this weekend.  My niece registered at Buy Buy Baby and Amazon.  I ordered from Amazon yesterday - items will be delvered tomorrow - easy peasy.  I went to Bed Bath and Beyond last Friday  and thought about running into Buy, Buy, Baby, but they took so long finding my item (which they did not find, they did an on-line order and sent it to me), that I couldn't run in there.  I am going to buy one outfit, but will probably go to Kohl's as I have $10 in Kohl's cash to spend.

You do have to feel for all the people that worked in all those stores though - where are they going to go?

[countrygirl2]

We also lost our KMart a year or two ago, I always liked KMart.

I do not believe everyone is shopping online either, a large segment of people have no bank accounts and therefore likely only

prepaid credit cards. I doubt they are buying much online, I think people are just buying less. They are doing well to afford the

very basics.

[busymom]

We've lost a number of stores within 10 miles of our house:  KMart, Sears, a major grocery store, and now we're within weeks of losing ToyRUs and Herberger's.  Nothing has come into the empty spaces left behind by the KMart, Sears, nor the grocery store. We've lost some of the chain restaurants, too, like Buffalo Wild Wings.  Our retail area is beginning to resemble a ghost town.  The people I hang out with are buying less, & wearing more of the clothes buried in the back of their closets to save money.  Also, I'm seeing more thrift store shopping among my friends.  I'm not sure if they're cutting back due to financial problems now, or anticipating trouble down the road.  

[Deleted]

Retail is still doing OK in my area.  Our Sears has avoided the closure list so far and all our anchor stores are still there. Stores in the mall are replaced, when things close.  Our empty retail is in the strip shopping centers, they overbuilt.  

Honestly I think retail is hurting because of what they stock.  Everything is so cheaply made.  I went to Lowe's over the weekend, but came home empty handed and ordered my item from amazon.  Lowe's only stocked the cheap plastic item.  

[countrygirl2]

Yes, they are making all this junk in china cheap as possible.  Clothing is a prime example, I find hardly anything anymore that I will buy at any price. I am thankful I have closets full and racks full of clothing from years prior.  Will sew eventually and its fabric I have had for some time and is quality. Curtains are another issue, finding well made yet not costing an arm and leg is a big problem too. Hubs said tools and everything are being made cheaper and cheaper.

[countrygirl2]

Grains

Sym Last Chg Time
Corn
Jul'18 377^0 +9^6 01:19
Sep'18 386^2 +10^0 01:19
Dec'18 397^4 +9^2 01:19
Mar'19 407^0 +9^2 01:19
May'19 413^0 +9^0 01:19
Jul'19 418^6 +9^0 01:19
Soybeans
Jul'18 954^0 +0^2 01:19
Aug'18 959^2 +0^2 01:19
Sep'18 966^0 +1^2 01:19
Nov'18 975^2 +1^4 01:19
Jan'19 983^2 +2^2 01:19
Mar'19 984^0 +3^4 01:19
Soybean Meal
Jul'18 353.4 +2.2 01:19
Aug'18 355.1 +2.3 01:19
Sep'18 354.2P
Oct'18 357.4 +3.3 01:19
Dec'18 358.2 +3.3 01:19
Jan'19 354.6P
Soybean Oil
Jul'18 30.05 -0.53 01:19
Aug'18 30.20 -0.50 01:19
Sep'18 30.37 -0.47 01:18
Oct'18 30.52 -0.45 01:18
Dec'18 30.85 -0.44 01:19
Jan'19 31.14 -0.41 01:18

[busymom]

Anyone else see this article on how mall vacancies are at a 6-year high?  

sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/07/03/mall-vacancies-hit-six-year-high/

[bean29]

I have to agree that Malls are in a world of Hurt, especially with big Anchor Stores like Sears and Boston Store going down.

Conversely I work for an Industrial Property Management firm, our vacancies are at a 10 year low.

[Tiny]

Perhaps the low unemployment (without much increase in wages) coupled with rising gas prices (and the rising cost of "shelter" - rent and house prices)  as well as overall  rising prices (cost of living)  are a better sign of the impending recession?   

 

[countrygirl2]

I went to Pennys and they had stacks of $15 tops for $5.  Regular shirts they sell so I got DD 5 as she has gained so much weight, poor baby.  Bought her shorts too, 40% off, but still to high.  I don't think things are selling that well.  I did get a new bra marked down to $22.  Otherwise Pennys buy one then get second 50% off.  So you can end up $40 or $50 easily for a couple of bra.  These is nothing special, nothing fancy and yet that expensive. I have a very hard time sewing for DD, for her pants I sometimes have even had to alter and add pieces, so very difficult to sew for her.

I can sew for myself and do some things for her.  Other then some bigger clothes for her I have pretty much quit buying clothing.  The quality is crap and selection is even worse.  I got a new machine for heavier stuff. As long as I can sew, now that I have the heavier machine I can likely make drapes, bedspreads, etc long as I can see well enough to do it. I just don't see good, affordable products anymore and think it will get worse. The issue will be whether I can buy quality fabric.

[phil5185]

Also says average farm equipment about $150k. Well how are they reporting these

$200k tractors, semis, and all the other equipment they have, these guys have millions in that stuff.

You left out the $450,000 Combine, lol. Leases.

[countrygirl2]

I never thought about that, I didn't realize they were leasing them.  Hubs said he thinks a lot of farmers are.  I bet that's not cheap either.

[tyfighter3]

They have been leasing the New and buying the Used for years and years now. Mid 80"s ?

[countrygirl2]

We live in farm country but I don't know, most are corporate farmers anyway.  Even here they farm thousands of acres.

[tyfighter3]

Corporate farming yes, but it really didn't get big until the 80's.  And Why was that? You have to go back to Jimmy Carter years when you had embargos on beans and other products that created the resesion in the early 80's that wiped out all of the young farmers. You where all right if you owned your farmland so what was left? You incorporated and got bigger, a lot bigger, I know Farmers that Farm 30,000 or more acres across 3 States.

[countrygirl2]

Yes, even here we have 7000 acre and more farms.  He is going to kill a bunch of farmers if he does this.  I worry we will have food shortages or so high we can't buy it.


Remember the movie Soylent Green, hope we don't end up like that eventually.

[countrygirl2]

I read over the last few months Russia has dropped massive amounts of our bonds, they are buying up gold, they are getting ready for something.


China has been our biggest buyer, all they have to do is quit buying them  and the prices start pushing up, we are in deep sh** then.

The Russian government, previously considered a significant holder of U.S. debt, has been steadily — and sharply — paring down the vast majority of its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities.

Russian holdings of Treasury securities declined 84 percent between March and May, falling to $14.9 billion from $96.1 billion in just two months, according to a U.S. Treasury Department report released July 18.

Financial bloggers have pounced on the news as being potentially ominous, but a few analysts suspect the transactions are more closely related to Russia's sanctions-hit economy, and portfolio allocation.



Russia's ownership of U.S. debt is eclipsed by that of China and Japan, both of whom actively manage their currencies and hold more than $1 trillion each in Treasuries on their books. In fact, China's vast holdings have been cited by some observers as a "nuclear option" in a Sino-American trade war, with the world's largest economy seen vulnerable to Chinese selling that could drive up yields.

The country's moves in the Treasury market come amid a growing furor over Moscow's suspected meddling in the U.S. general election in 2016, which has led to sanctions on its economy. Russia's sell-off of U.S. debt in May also coincided with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which moves inversely to the note's price, briefly touching its highest level since 2011.

Though the 10-year yield has since retreated from levels above 3 percent, its movements have implications for other financial instruments like mortgages rates and auto loans, which are often based on its rate.

I read elsewhere that they are buying gold.

[countrygirl2]

Russia and China ‘Furiously’ Buying Up Gold As “a Global Currency Crisis – Albeit Unstated – is Underway”



A larger global currency shift is underway…

And it may be happening much more quickly than anyone has realized.

Things are definitely in motion. Call it a game of musical chairs, or an exercise in rearranging chairs on the Titanic, or just that a tilting balance of power. Just don’t make the mistake of thinking this is all routine.

As Michael Snyder just reported:

The absolutely stunning decision by the Swiss National Bank to decouple from the euro has triggered billions of dollars worth of losses all over the globe.

[…]

And these are just the losses that we know about so far. It will be many months before the full scope of the financial devastation caused by the Swiss National Bank is fully revealed. But of course the same thing could be said about the crash in the price of oil that we have witnessed in recent weeks. These two “black swan events” have set financial dominoes in motion all over the globe. At this point we can only guess how bad the financial devastation will ultimately be.

The key to understanding how the hammer will fall may lie in: gold.

In the material world that governs politics and economics, there has always been one golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules.

Put China at the top of the next generation of rule makers, then.

China has been quietly stockpiling gold for years now. In fact, it is stockpiling so much gold that many have speculated that it may be building a gold-backed yuan currency that would make the Dollar pale in comparison on the global market.

Bottom line: no one knows just exactly how much gold China has amassed:

Buying surreptitiously allows Beijing to buy bullion at bargain prices; if the world knew how much gold China was really amassing, a run on gold the likes of which the globe has never seen would likely ensue. “We believe China is controlling the gold price because it is buying in such a way so as not to push prices up.” That’s the opinion of respected precious-metals analyst Julian Phillips of The Gold Forecaster, along with a host of other informed sources. (source)

It is widely believed that China has accumulated larger – possibly much larger – reserves since. (source)

Lots of other countries are rapidly buying up gold, too, including – Serbia, Greece, Ecuador, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

But reportedly no one is buying gold at a faster pace than Russia.

Back in August it was reported that:

Russia’s increase is the most dramatic, according to the recent report from the IMF. The Russian central bank has almost doubled its gold holdings within the last 5 years to 1,094.8 tonnes in June of this year. China’s Central Bank followed with an increase of 75% from its holdings in 2009.

Bloomberg reported in November:

The country has tripled its gold reserves since 2005 and is holding the most since at least 1993, IMF data show.

There is little doubt that gold plays a major factor in Russia’s posturing during a global showdown that involves proxy war and military tensions in the Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and other parts of the globe.

Moscow’s purchase of bullion and the assault on the bank can be seen as tactics of a single strategy designed to break the monopoly of the dollar. Gold is Russia’s hedge against that hegemony; it can’t be hacked.

More than that, Putin has been positioning his motherland to team up with China to solidify the emerging BRICS system which aims to thwart decades of Anglo financial dominance with a un-dollar currency system that will also include a development bank.

Russia’s response has been to buy gold and turn east, cementing deals with China and, it would seem, firing the opening salvos in a cyber currency war with the U.S. (source)

Warnings have sounded about a tipping of the global balance:

Russia is also increasing its gold reserves. China and Russia have been exchanging their U.S. dollar reserves and buying physical gold. Last year we speculated that this dynamic would create a shortage in gold leading to much higher prices. Russia and China now rank in the top ten countries by gold reserves.

With Russia now in what appears to be a currency war with the U.S., they may find a willing partner in China to create an alternative international financial system that does not rely upon or use the dollar. Irrespective of either country’s intentions, their physical gold buying sprees continue unabated. (source)

To that end, Russia has been amassing as much gold as possible, in a bid to outmaneuver its enemies in a silent economic war to hold onto its independence and further project its status.

Nearly every bit of gas and oil that Russia sells to neighbors in Europe and Asia is converted from dollars into gold reserves – and even with the collapsing oil price, that amount could still be staggering.

Many have pointed to the gold and oil trade off as Putin’s grand chess strategy:

Thus, the Western world, built on the hegemony of the petrodollar, is in a catastrophic situation. In which it cannot survive without oil and gas supplies from Russia. And Russia is now ready to sell its oil and gas to the West only in exchange for physical gold! The twist of Putin’s game is that the mechanism for the sale of Russian energy to the West only for gold now works regardless of whether the West agrees to pay for Russian oil and gas with its artificially cheap gold, or not.

[thyme4change]

countrygirl - can you link to that article?