metals, mining, and more......

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 22, 2017 15:37:00 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 22, 2017 14:46:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The late 90's.. www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

Sorry.. should have said he would have had a 4-5% economy...

i realize that.  i meant the question sincerely.

i think 3-4 is realistic.  i think 4+ is not.  jmho.

we'll see, right?  let's check back in a year.

I hear ya, nice to have the reference there for anyone who wants to check.

To be clear, and I have stated this elsewhere, I don't think we are going to see much above 2.5-3% this year. The reason I don't think we will see a recession this year is because nothing has changed economically in the past few months. However, the deals being signed right now across a lot of sectors are substantially more than in past years.

[djAdvocate]

and to be clear- i expect Trump to do worse in his first four years than Obama did in his last four.  but i won't blame it on Trump.  it is just cyclical economics. 

[verrip1]

dj:

I googled to an article about metals and clean air and reached a website named "Proven & Probable".  www.provenandprobable.com  On its main graphic, it includes the words "metals, mining and more" just under its title.

Just wondered if, because of this thread title, this might be a website you include in your readership.

[djAdvocate]

quite possibly, verrip.  thanks for the tip.

the gap continues to grow between precious metals and senior mines.  it is approaching 15% since Valentines Day.

edit: for reference, CEF hit a four month high today.

update: CEF hit ANOTHER four month high today.  the gap continues to grow.
at some point, senior mines are going to pop.  it is inevitable.

UNWPX is selling for $6.68 today, which is really cheap.  i would place the value closer to $8.

[djAdvocate]

i forgot to recommend Silver Wheaton (SLW) at 20 and Alamos Gold (AGI) at 8 last week.

there might still be an opportunity for those prices, but it is rapidly diminishing, imo.

CEF is up again today.  pressure....building. 

[djAdvocate]

the golds and silvers are still behaving badly, but it looks like Uraniums are finally firming up.

URPTF is bottomed out at 3.  CCJ is up about 1% today.  this sector looks solid.  we'll see.

edit: i just noticed that MUX reported earnings (3) weeks ago and they look pretty good.  despite losing 10% in production capacity, they flipped their $20M loss in 2015 to a $20M profit in 2016, and prospects look better for this year.  balance sheet is good, with an extra $20M cash on hand in 2016, and no external financing.  it seems like a decent deal at $3.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Westinghouse going bankrupt, good or bad for the future of Uranium??

Could be seeing some half finished plants for sale in the next year or so anyway...

[djAdvocate]

Mar 30, 2017 0:12:47 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Westinghouse going bankrupt, good or bad for the future of Uranium??

Could be seeing some half finished plants for sale in the next year or so anyway...

Toshiba is a 77% owner in this entity, so it will probably fall to them.

i think the US, Japan, and most of Europe is a terrible market for nuclear.  China and India are where the action is.

i don't know the impact here, but i suspect that it won't be good.

again: i am trading Uranium on technicals right now.  the fundamentals are not good, but the metal is extremely oversold.  it has fallen from $100/lb to $20/lb, and you can't mine it for that- so it HAS to go up (once inventories are cleared).  it will stabilize around $40, which will make seniors a lot of money.

this sector is not for the feint of heart.  it could turn on a dime tomorrow and tumble, and that would be entirely justified.  this is pure speculation!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear what you're saying about Toshiba; Westinghouse were the pioneers of nuclear energy though. So their end is kind of symbolic, IMO. Especially when you factor in..

it has fallen from $100/lb to $20/lb, and you can't mine it for that- so it HAS to go up (once inventories are cleared). it will stabilize around $40, which will make seniors a lot of money.

I disagree that it has to go up in price, a clearing of supplies would help drive the price higher no doubt; but on the other hand we could truly be seeing the death of nuclear energy here.

I understand what you're saying about how you view it as a technical play. But if the fundamentals of the business are terrible, how does that translate into good technicals?

[djAdvocate]

Mar 30, 2017 17:22:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I hear what you're saying about Toshiba; Westinghouse were the pioneers of nuclear energy though. So their end is kind of symbolic, IMO. Especially when you factor in..

it has fallen from $100/lb to $20/lb, and you can't mine it for that- so it HAS to go up (once inventories are cleared). it will stabilize around $40, which will make seniors a lot of money.

I disagree that it has to go up in price, a clearing of supplies would help drive the price higher no doubt; but on the other hand we could truly be seeing the death of nuclear energy here.

I understand what you're saying about how you view it as a technical play. But if the fundamentals of the business are terrible, how does that translate into good technicals?

they are often unrelated.  technicals have only to do with trading details.

i don't share your sentiments about Westinghouse.  but it would require more time than i have here to day to explain why.  suffice to say, i view them more as a brand than a company.

but i am also being very conservative, here.  i don't think the fundamentals are as bad as you do (not good is better than terrible).  but i am not here to sell you on them EITHER.  you MIGHT be right. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 30, 2017 18:25:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 30, 2017 17:22:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I hear what you're saying about Toshiba; Westinghouse were the pioneers of nuclear energy though. So their end is kind of symbolic, IMO. Especially when you factor in..

I disagree that it has to go up in price, a clearing of supplies would help drive the price higher no doubt; but on the other hand we could truly be seeing the death of nuclear energy here.

I understand what you're saying about how you view it as a technical play. But if the fundamentals of the business are terrible, how does that translate into good technicals?

they are often unrelated.  technicals have only to do with trading details.

i don't share your sentiments about Westinghouse.  but it would require more time than i have here to day to explain why.  suffice to say, i view them more as a brand than a company.

but i am also being very conservative, here.  i don't think the fundamentals are as bad as you do (not good is better than terrible).  but i am not here to sell you on them EITHER.  you MIGHT be right. 

I can understand what you are saying about Westinghouse being a brand, they were a subsidiary, not a stand alone company. Meaning they have been trending down for years and couldn't stand on their own anymore.

This is going to be an interesting one to watch for sure.

[djAdvocate]

yeah, and to be clear, this is NOT good news for the US nuclear industry.

i just never expected much from it.  though i had hoped our new president might help.

it appears that there is little confidence in that, or it was too late for Westinghouse.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

it appears that there is little confidence in that

I think it's hard for people to get behind nuclear right now because of the accidents. In this day and age where we hold our leaders accountable for everything, it's political suicide to back nuclear.

The problem here as I see it, nuclear hasn't been profitable yet, it's been around for decades now, and Westinghouse not being able to deliver on these large plants while Ariva switches to decommissioning...

H.E.L.E. It's the way of the future.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 3, 2017 15:14:40 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

it appears that there is little confidence in that

I think it's hard for people to get behind nuclear right now because of the accidents. In this day and age where we hold our leaders accountable for everything, it's political suicide to back nuclear.

The problem here as I see it, nuclear hasn't been profitable yet, it's been around for decades now, and Westinghouse not being able to deliver on these large plants while Ariva switches to decommissioning...

H.E.L.E. It's the way of the future.

did you mean Areva?

[djAdvocate]

just found this.  1/3 of the world's nuclear plants under construction are in China:

www.nei.org/Knowledge-Center/Nuclear-Statistics/World-Statistics/Nuclear-Units-Under-Construction-Worldwide

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 3, 2017 17:50:52 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 3, 2017 15:14:40 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I think it's hard for people to get behind nuclear right now because of the accidents. In this day and age where we hold our leaders accountable for everything, it's political suicide to back nuclear.

The problem here as I see it, nuclear hasn't been profitable yet, it's been around for decades now, and Westinghouse not being able to deliver on these large plants while Ariva switches to decommissioning...

H.E.L.E. It's the way of the future.

did you mean Areva?

Yes, sorry.

An interesting article here..

Westinghouse Shifts From Building to Dismantling

Of 754 reactors world-wide, 90 have been abandoned at various stages of construction, including 40 in the U.S., 12 of which are Westinghouse’s, according to the Global Nuclear Power Database.....

....The projects in the two southern states were the first to be approved for construction by U.S. regulators since the 1979 accident at Three Mile Island. The reactors broke ground in 2011 and were supposed to come online in 2016. Four facilities under construction in China are facing similar delays: they were projected to be ready in 2013 and 2014, a timeline that has been pushed back to this year or next.

[djAdvocate]

mining stocks are still in a coma.  have been for a month.  if not for these TWO stocks, i would be down:

SDRG
SORL

i don't recommend SDRG.  it is a POS.  i sold half my position last week, and the rest is for sale at current market. 

SORL, however, i really like.  my target is $10

NOTE: SORL is not a miner.

[djAdvocate]

i added another 25% to my holdings of TRX this morning at 47 cents.

NOTE: SORL broke above key resistance at $4.30 this morning.  next stop = $5.

[djAdvocate]

silver got smacked down after starting higher today.  don't know what is up with that.

Uranium juniors had a good day, probably on the bombing stuff.  Uranium is a good war metal. 

[djAdvocate]

metals higher this morning.  i doubled my stake in GSS.

edit: SORL is now my 3rd largest holding.  up another 5% today.  i have 20% of my shares for sale at $6.

edit2: i think it is going to hit $5 this week (by 4/14).

[djAdvocate]

uraniums were sharply higher today, +7%

UUUU! 

[djAdvocate]

another nice bump up today.  with the weak jobs number, some attention is being paid to this sector again.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

SORL looks interesting. Focusing on brakes and electrical systems is smart. I wonder if they will compete or become a buyout target for Magna International??

[djAdvocate]

Apr 11, 2017 12:43:19 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

SORL looks interesting. Focusing on brakes and electrical systems is smart. I wonder if they will compete or become a buyout target for Magna International??

i have bought MANY Chinese companies.  most of them went bust.  this is an exception.

i THINK it is very well run, but here is a precaution: ALL of these companies are 51% state owned.  that means TWO things for investors- one positive, and one negative:

1) shares will never be diluted.  that is just how it works.  no new share offerings.  that is a GOOD thing.
2) the government can be really meddlesome.

it also means that it is impossible for an outside purchaser to gain more than a 49% share.

having said that, this is a really good company, imo.

[djAdvocate]

i am approaching a 4 week high this morning, +1.5%

[djAdvocate]

i think that CSFFF is an utter STEAL at 88 cents.  it is going to report a profit this year, and has tons of cash on hand.

#buyback?

[djAdvocate]

CEF hit a five month high today.  the golds and silvers are looking very cheap.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 11, 2017 13:21:51 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 11, 2017 12:43:19 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

SORL looks interesting. Focusing on brakes and electrical systems is smart. I wonder if they will compete or become a buyout target for Magna International??

i have bought MANY Chinese companies.  most of them went bust.  this is an exception.

i THINK it is very well run, but here is a precaution: ALL of these companies are 51% state owned.  that means TWO things for investors- one positive, and one negative:

1) shares will never be diluted.  that is just how it works.  no new share offerings.  that is a GOOD thing.
2) the government can be really meddlesome.

it also means that it is impossible for an outside purchaser to gain more than a 49% share.

having said that, this is a really good company, imo.

It's going to be interesting to watch how the dynamics change in China in the coming years. I understand what you're saying about the current structure of business in China though, and I do think SORL as a better chance than some of the SOEs.

It's funny though, because depending on how you look at it, Tesla is kinda like an SOE right now. I really feel for the people who are buying Musk's; “A stock price represents risk-adjusted future cash flow".... Tesla's Valuation Is ‘Inexplicable’: AutoNation CEO. Space X will make a nice addition to someone else's business one day.

[djAdvocate]

SLW became my #1 holding this morning.  don't know how i feel about that.  i would rather it was one of my juniors. 

[djAdvocate]

really getting clobbered today.  -1.5%. 

edit: i might have spoken too soon.  gold reversed course in the last hour and has gone up $8.  we'll see if it drags those equities along with it.  very bearish sentiment in the market is playing against that.  but i noticed that AGI is back to even.