metals, mining, and more......

[Value Buy]

Sorry for the loss, but aren't these stocks more of a day trade type situation?
Day trades are fine, if you can spend the day on the fluctuations going on with them.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 7, 2017 11:26:03 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Sorry for the loss, but aren't these stocks more of a day trade type situation?
Day trades are fine, if you can spend the day on the fluctuations going on with them.

there's no loss until i sell, so there is nothing to be sorry for. 

and no, i don't do day trades.  i have owned most of what i am holding now for over 5 years.

[verrip1]

Really, not all trading is day trading.  Trading seems to have developed a negative connotation.  I think part of that is the mantra of the popular Boglehead movement, who are like financial Luddites with their fixation on buy and hold market indexes with associated revulsion about things like momentum, CAPM, value, free cash flow and technicals.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 7, 2017 17:05:37 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

Really, not all trading is day trading.  Trading seems to have developed a negative connotation.  I think part of that is the mantra of the popular Boglehead movement, who are like financial Luddites with their fixation on buy and hold market indexes with associated revulsion about things like momentum, CAPM, value, free cash flow and technicals.

we think so much alike on this, verrip1 .

i am basically a value guy.  but value doesn't work for shit in a secular bear.  so i use technicals a lot.

and i speculate a lot more.

i like secular bulls because they are amateur markets.  it is easy to make money.  i can take long vacations and not watch my shit.  that appeals to me greatly.

this market has been a real chore for the last (15) years.  but the last (8) have been a lot easier. 

[djAdvocate]

incidentally, i often put in a sell the day i buy.

i did this recently with RMR.  i paid about $40 for it, and it put in a sell for 1/4 of my shares at $57.  i fugured that if i can make that kind of money quickly, then why not?  if the order expires, that's fine, too.  i like the stock. 

it went to $55, but has since pulled back.  that's fine.

[djAdvocate]

Capstone is getting absolutely crushed this morning, and i can't figure out why.

probably a good buying opportunity.  it is under $1.

[verrip1]

I tend to put in stop limits after my buys.  Being in the distribution phase puts a whole new light on the mechanics I use.

On that RMR, did you make that choice more on fundamentals or on technicals?  It looks to have momentum, but I'm a bit iffy on the ETFs and CEF they manage.  The ETFs are all yielding quite a bit which makes me go "hmmmm?", yet their CEF is making its distributions with what looks to be destructive return of capital and with a fairly low yield on market price compared to other RE CEFs.  Do you see them growing by managing additional properties and funds, or by expanding those they already manage?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 9, 2017 12:45:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Capstone is getting absolutely crushed this morning, and i can't figure out why.

probably a good buying opportunity.  it is under $1.

Over capacity across the community complex??

[djAdvocate]

Mar 9, 2017 13:37:50 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

I tend to put in stop limits after my buys.  Being in the distribution phase puts a whole new light on the mechanics I use.

On that RMR, did you make that choice more on fundamentals or on technicals?  It looks to have momentum, but I'm a bit iffy on the ETFs and CEF they manage.  The ETFs are all yielding quite a bit which makes me go "hmmmm?", yet their CEF is making its distributions with what looks to be destructive return of capital and with a fairly low yield on market price compared to other RE CEFs.  Do you see them growing by managing additional properties and funds, or by expanding those they already manage?

answered in order:

1) technicals.  it has a lot of momentum, and i thought it would rupture 57 quickly.
2) CEF?  i am sorry, i should know that term, but i don't.
3) expanding, through the IPO funds.

there was another reason i put the limit in- and that is because i was already overweight on day one (i bought more than was probably wise at the time).

[djAdvocate]

Mar 9, 2017 14:35:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Mar 9, 2017 12:45:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Capstone is getting absolutely crushed this morning, and i can't figure out why.

probably a good buying opportunity.  it is under $1.

Over capacity across the community complex??

copper pricing tends to be driven by inventory, not production (which is a big, slow ship to steer).  but you nailed it, Aman- that is precisely what is going on:

www.infomine.com/investment/warehouse-levels/copper/1-year/

inventory went +44% after hitting a one year low recently.  that is driving sentiment down.

i should have looked at this before i even commented, but i didn't think of it (it had been trending down for two months prior).

good catch!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks, DJ.

I think when it comes down to it we are probably seeing a bit of exuberance here. I believe whole hearted President Trump will be good for economic growth, and the security of the Republic; the key word being will. Economics haven't changed globally, the US has been the strength in the economic weakness for years, and I just read that China's central bank is now saying something about a debt problem. (More on that later)

I'd be keeping a close eye on how China tries to unwind their commodity trading "bubble" if I were trading commodities right now.

[verrip1]

dj, lololol!!!  I googled a little more and found Rocky Mountain Resources (RMR).  Duh, this is a metals and mining thread.

I mistakenly looked at RMR (the NASDAQ symbol), the holding company named RMR Group which manages two hotel chains, one truck service station chain, four real estate exchange traded funds (ETFs), and one real estate closed end fund (CEF).  My mind went that way because real estate companies and funds have been part of my holdings for a number of years, and closed end funds as well.

Oh, those acronyms!

[djAdvocate]

Mar 10, 2017 20:37:36 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

dj, lololol!!!  I googled a little more and found Rocky Mountain Resources (RMR).  Duh, this is a metals and mining thread.

I mistakenly looked at RMR (the NASDAQ symbol), the holding company named RMR Group which manages two hotel chains, one truck service station chain, four real estate exchange traded funds (ETFs), and one real estate closed end fund (CEF).  My mind went that way because real estate companies and funds have been part of my holdings for a number of years, and closed end funds as well.

Oh, those acronyms!

no, you are right, i was referring to the REIT one.  so, Closed End Fund was the answer i was looking for.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 10, 2017 12:37:04 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Thanks, DJ.

I think when it comes down to it we are probably seeing a bit of exuberance here. I believe whole hearted President Trump will be good for economic growth, and the security of the Republic; the key word being will. Economics haven't changed globally, the US has been the strength in the economic weakness for years, and I just read that China's central bank is now saying something about a debt problem. (More on that later)

I'd be keeping a close eye on how China tries to unwind their commodity trading "bubble" if I were trading commodities right now.

i think the developing world is in a weird spot right now.  i suspect that there will be some unraveling but i don't think it will be of even a quasi permanent nature.  i would go long and deep into this, but i kind of consider it wallpaper, unless you suspect that consumption is going backwards, and we are going to retreat into a new Dark Ages, which is something you clearly don't believe.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 11, 2017 19:06:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 10, 2017 12:37:04 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Thanks, DJ.

I think when it comes down to it we are probably seeing a bit of exuberance here. I believe whole hearted President Trump will be good for economic growth, and the security of the Republic; the key word being will. Economics haven't changed globally, the US has been the strength in the economic weakness for years, and I just read that China's central bank is now saying something about a debt problem. (More on that later)

I'd be keeping a close eye on how China tries to unwind their commodity trading "bubble" if I were trading commodities right now.

i think the developing world is in a weird spot right now.  i suspect that there will be some unraveling but i don't think it will be of even a quasi permanent nature.  i would go long and deep into this, but i kind of consider it wallpaper, unless you suspect that consumption is going backwards, and we are going to retreat into a new Dark Ages, which is something you clearly don't believe.

No, I don't think we will return to a place where everything will have to be redeveloped. On the other side of the next phase, I expect that we will be in a new modern post war period. The redevelopment will be similar to what happened in Europe after WW2; obviously on a much larger scale.

[djAdvocate]

MUX and CSFFF are up 10% this morning.

this is a dead cat bounce, though.  metals are flat.  we will have to see how the trends hold out.

[djAdvocate]

OMG!  got CRUSHED today!!! 

down 3%



(not amused, actually.  but that is how the cookie crumbles)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's all about how you handle the loss...

I'll put this here since we have been discussing batteries/metals they need. Explosions are just another drawback to batteries. However, if we apply this to grid storage, we are now talking about revenues going up in flames...

Exploding headphones reignite fears about batteries on planes

[djAdvocate]

AMY was down sharply today, in a nod to Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger

the other metals did a lot better.  i will probably be +3% today. 

direct....100%....bounceback.

[djAdvocate]

another nice day today, but it is mostly Uranium that is doing it.

this whole sector has been declining for the last month, but it looks like the trend has played out.  there is a big bounce in some of these juniors like Plateau and Bannerman.  it is beginning to spill over to the majors like CCJ.  again, the metal fundamentals are not good here, so this sector is speculative.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Keep a close eye out here. GDP projections are not great... to the point the FED should have held off the hike.. From the way Yellen responded to questions about it yesterday kinda says it all. Reminds me of how the FED raised rates at the end of 2015 then later apologized... 

[djAdvocate]

i might be wrong.  probably am....but.....

this economy has been growing for (8) years.  i would be very surprised if we didn't get a recession soon.

recession would be bad for base metals, good for precious metals, bad for the dollar, and bad for equities and real estate.  would also be bad for consumption, income growth and confidence.  so consumer durables would also be vulnerable.

any other opinions?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The US/Global economy has been going through the Great Stagnation. The past 8 years has been sub par by US standards of expansion; however, with no boom there is no bust.

Near/negative growth has been normal for the first quarter under President Obama since the economy normalized after The Great Recession. I wasn't expecting anything different for the tail end of his Presidency, as I have noted elsewhere.

The policies that President Trump is putting in place are pro USA(Canada) growth. Business optimism is growing on the small and large scale. JMO, we are entering into the reversal I mentioned earlier this year. The US economy is going to do well in the coming years, but due to Global events the markets won't be nearly as happy.

[djAdvocate]

Aham- it is very rare for an economic expansion to last this long.

you are saying that the weak growth means that we can ignore the fact that we have been in what is now the longest peacetime expansion in US history (i think)?

i am just trying to understand you.  i tend to think of economic growth as CYCLIC.  don't you?>

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Everything is cycles brother.

Yes, that's exactly what I am saying; the duration of this recovery is irrelevant. Over the last six years we have seen the NG bubble burst, the shale bubble burst, the solar bubble burst, and we are in the process of the commercial real estate market rolling over. There were policy decisions made during this time frame that would have lead to stronger domestic growth, but that is in the past now.

The policies that President Trump has laid out so far focus heavily on the US economy; which can be seen in the announcements from the Auto and natural resource industries. This "protectionism" is what will insulate North America from the disaster that is shaping up on the global stage.

I'm not saying there will never be a recession again, don't get me wrong here. However, for the next year or so I expect more of the same as we have seen; with marginally stronger growth.

When the international markets(debt) go through restructuring, I fully expect there to be a recession, and a major realignment of the labour force.

Just my thoughts.

[djAdvocate]

i would argue that the US economy has been trending down in GDP growth for half a century:

www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

i see this as a mega-trend.  i don't think anything is going to stop it.

i know you do.  so, we will see.  but i would not count on it.

i doubt you will see 5% GDP growth in your lifetime in the US.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I see it more like; "GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 16.90 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958."

A full capacity economy will hit 4-5%, and if Obama would have focused on natural gas over solar and electric cars he would have had a 5% economy. Baseline consumption is a beautiful thing!

[djAdvocate]

when was the last time we saw 5% growth (annual), Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The late 90's.. www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

Sorry.. should have said he would have had a 4-5% economy...

[djAdvocate]

Mar 22, 2017 14:46:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The late 90's.. www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

Sorry.. should have said he would have had a 4-5% economy...

i realize that.  i meant the question sincerely.

i think 3-4 is realistic.  i think 4+ is not.  jmho.

we'll see, right?  let's check back in a year.