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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2015 13:03:30 GMT -5
IBD is a really conservative paper, but the only poll question that concerns me (*for purposes of this discussion) is the one surrounding the GOP nomination. i should also mention that this is the first time that IBD has chimed in with a survey (for the 2016 GOP nomination), and that this survey MAY be wrong- but i am inclined to react to all (non internet) surveys as if they have been done scientifically, as most are, until it can be shown otherwise. the question phrasing is very important in polling, however. "who do you want to be our next president" is a very different question than "who do you think will be the GOP nominee in 2016" (for example).
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 4, 2015 13:13:37 GMT -5
... the only poll question that concerns me is the one surrounding the GOP nomination. ... I am always interested in push polls.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2015 13:15:36 GMT -5
... the only poll question that concerns me is the one surrounding the GOP nomination. ... I am always interested in push polls. as am i, but IBD is a reputable organization for polling, imo. if the OTHER questions in the poll impacted results, we will know after the next survey. as i said on the other thread, the last two surveys on this issue are like night and day for Carson/Trump, so it is difficult to say what is going on, here.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 4, 2015 13:25:59 GMT -5
I am always interested in push polls. as am i, ... ... the only poll question that concerns me is the one surrounding the GOP nomination. ...
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2015 13:41:19 GMT -5
... the only poll question that concerns me (*for purposes of this discussion) is the one surrounding the GOP nomination. ... sorry, i meant ON THIS THREAD, or "FOR PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION". not in general. excuse my haste if that was unclear. *remark added by me
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 4, 2015 14:00:57 GMT -5
sorry, i meant ON THIS THREAD, or "FOR PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION". not in general. excuse my haste if that was unclear. *remark added by me Always fun to read your explanations.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2015 14:32:39 GMT -5
sorry, i meant ON THIS THREAD, or "FOR PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION". not in general. excuse my haste if that was unclear. *remark added by me Always fun to read your explanations. not as fun as it is to have you nitpick my posts.
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Post by fishy999 on Oct 4, 2015 19:33:29 GMT -5
You can find the GOPe Roadmap at Conservative Tree House. Well at least that explains everything about your posts and why I generally scroll past them. And I thought Infowars was the hub of crazy.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 5, 2015 23:10:13 GMT -5
www.realclearpolitics.com/Trump holds the national lead, and leads in IA, and NH in the RCP average of all polls. Only ONE (1) poll has Trump down- IBD/TIPP by -7%. Additionally, NBC/WSJ has Trump by +1%. All other polls show Trump leading well outside the margin of error- most revealing an +8% to +10% lead. Even including the one poll that shows Trump down, and the poll which shows him with only a 1% lead- which skews the average down, Trump is leading nationally outside the margin of error by +5.5%. He's slipped a little, but if this were McCain, Romney, or Jeb nobody would be talking about anything but them being the "front runner" and presumptive nominee at this point. The new drive-by media narrative is that Trump has said he'll drop out if the polling turns against him. I personally think he's just toying with these idiots. He is no doubt well aware of the machinations they've had to engage in to make it appear as though he is losing support, and Jeb is even still in the race.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 5, 2015 23:32:15 GMT -5
your analysis misses something. Trump has lead by less than 10 points in all but ONE of the last NINE polls, after having been in the lead by more than 10 points in all but one OF THE PREVIOUS TWELVE.
he is down 8% on average in the last month, and falling. his lead has fallen by MORE THAN HALF.
again, i say he gets passed in the next 8 weeks. might he reverse it in the very next poll? SURE! in fact, i would place better than even odds HE WILL. this latest poll is probably an outlier. but it is also a very negative result. in other words, it is not just a LITTLE outlying- it is 17% lower than the last result!
his confidence, like yours, shows a profound lack of perspective. which is one of the main reasons i think he is going down. do yourself a favor and read the two links on the Trump thread, including one by Nate Silver's old site, which includes THIS zinger:
At this point in the campaign, however, Trump’s popularity is far lower than you’d expect from a future nominee. Most nominees (not including incumbent presidents) have either been very popular or not well-known at this stage.1 Trump’s well-known and not very popular.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 5, 2015 23:54:46 GMT -5
if i didn't mention it before, i think Trump is doomed for an entirely different reason than his nomination poll numbers. it is his head to head matchup numbers that suck. he is the worst of the top four candidates against Clinton, according to those surveys. eventually, that catches up with you- typically, before the very first primary. WHEN that happens, Fiorina and Carson will be the primary beneficiaries- but i think that eventually, the numbers will come back to Bush. in a few months, i would expect Bush, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, and Trump to all be in the teens. if they stay that way for a couple of months, it will throw the early primaries into chaos. which, personally, i think would be GREAT. i love early primary chaos. do i expect Bush to be the eventual nominee? i still think he has a good shot- but i think he is in a lot of trouble. Rubio is polling better BOTH head to head AND in the primary, so he would be the guy i would pick right now- and i think he has a better than average shot of beating Clinton, if she wins.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 6, 2015 7:14:57 GMT -5
Waterboarding involves pouring water over a suspect's face to simulate the effects of drowning.(from link above) What a bullshit description. Here is what it is: After what happened on 9/11, I don't care if we hook jumper cables from a nuclear power plant to their nipples while they're neck deep in raw sewage just for fun. If we get some information, bonus. But I really don't care one iota about these animals. #NoTearsForTerrorists
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 6, 2015 7:18:13 GMT -5
if i didn't mention it before, i think Trump is doomed for an entirely different reason than his nomination poll numbers. it is his head to head matchup numbers that suck. he is the worst of the top four candidates against Clinton, according to those surveys. eventually, that catches up with you- typically, before the very first primary. WHEN that happens, Fiorina and Carson will be the primary beneficiaries- but i think that eventually, the numbers will come back to Bush. in a few months, i would expect Bush, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, and Trump to all be in the teens. if they stay that way for a couple of months, it will throw the early primaries into chaos. which, personally, i think would be GREAT. i love early primary chaos. do i expect Bush to be the eventual nominee? i still think he has a good shot- but i think he is in a lot of trouble. Rubio is polling better BOTH head to head AND in the primary, so he would be the guy i would pick right now- and i think he has a better than average shot of beating Clinton, if she wins. Head to head match up numbers are a gimmick at this point in the election. How many times have the GOP elite used these numbers to make the case that their voters should "nominate the candidate that can win"? When is the last time that prediction worked out for them? Trump is right- Romney choked. When Trump has his boot on Hillary's neck, he isn't going to "tone it down" in the last months of the campaign. He's going to crush her.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 6, 2015 7:28:22 GMT -5
Waterboarding involves pouring water over a suspect's face to simulate the effects of drowning.(from link above) What a bullshit description. Here is what it is: After what happened on 9/11, I don't care if we hook jumper cables from a nuclear power plant to their nipples while they're neck deep in raw sewage just for fun. If we get some information, bonus. But I really don't care one iota about these animals. #NoTearsForTerrorists That makes perfect sense and illustrates the effectiveness of the 9/11 attacks. I, also, don't care about them. I care about us.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 6, 2015 7:44:08 GMT -5
After what happened on 9/11, I don't care if we hook jumper cables from a nuclear power plant to their nipples while they're neck deep in raw sewage just for fun. If we get some information, bonus. But I really don't care one iota about these animals. #NoTearsForTerrorists That makes perfect sense and illustrates the effectiveness of the 9/11 attacks. I, also, don't care about them. I care about us. They should have had 72 hours to turn over bin Laden, or Kabul goes up in a radioactive cloud. We would not be living with an expanding islamist threat today had we taken care of business then. I love that the Russians are mercilessly killing these assholes. In the 60 minutes interview where Trump first said this, the interviewer asked / stated something to the effect "the Russians would own Syria. They'd never leave." to which Trump responded, "Do you want to own it?" Great question.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 6, 2015 7:55:12 GMT -5
That makes perfect sense and illustrates the effectiveness of the 9/11 attacks. I, also, don't care about them. I care about us. They should have had 72 hours to turn over bin Laden, or Kabul goes up in a radioactive cloud. We would not be living with an expanding islamist threat today had we taken care of business then. I love that the Russians are mercilessly killing these assholes. In the 60 minutes interview where Trump first said this, the interviewer asked / stated something to the effect "the Russians would own Syria. They'd never leave." to which Trump responded, "Do you want to own it?" Great question. Please factor in Russian involvement in Afghanistan prior to 9/11 when thinking about the desirability of them in Syria. I would like to see Syrians own Syria.
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 6, 2015 8:31:58 GMT -5
That makes perfect sense and illustrates the effectiveness of the 9/11 attacks. I, also, don't care about them. I care about us. They should have had 72 hours to turn over bin Laden, or Kabul goes up in a radioactive cloud. We would not be living with an expanding islamist threat today had we taken care of business then. I love that the Russians are mercilessly killing these assholes. In the 60 minutes interview where Trump first said this, the interviewer asked / stated something to the effect "the Russians would own Syria. They'd never leave." to which Trump responded, "Do you want to own it?" Great question. 'Whoomp! (There It Is.)'
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 6, 2015 8:48:14 GMT -5
Hell-if the U.S. can use nuclear bombs to fix some country's ass today, why not some other country with nuclear wepons fixing one of their enemy country's asses too.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 6, 2015 9:06:36 GMT -5
They should have had 72 hours to turn over bin Laden, or Kabul goes up in a radioactive cloud. We would not be living with an expanding islamist threat today had we taken care of business then. I love that the Russians are mercilessly killing these assholes. In the 60 minutes interview where Trump first said this, the interviewer asked / stated something to the effect "the Russians would own Syria. They'd never leave." to which Trump responded, "Do you want to own it?" Great question. I agree that we should have kept our eyes on the prize with regard to getting bin Ladin. Nuclear clouds? Not so much.
Yikes. We did that once, and we largely got a pass, because we were ending WW freaking II. Now we know what they do though, and what they unleash. This is not a precedent we want to set, anywhere.
We did that once and we are at peace with a people that were once under the spell of a nihilistic death cult that swore to die to the last man because they got a glimpse of our willingness to take the last man.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 6, 2015 9:07:16 GMT -5
I never thought I'd live to see the day when the United States sat back and let the Russians do something we should be doing- worse than letting them, actually complaining about it.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 6, 2015 9:25:11 GMT -5
Aaah yes! Nothing like the smell of napalm in the morning! Unlike Vietnam, we actually were attacked by agents of an organization whose leader was being harbored by the Taliban government headquartered in Kabul. Today I say Go Russia, go!
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:23:25 GMT -5
if i didn't mention it before, i think Trump is doomed for an entirely different reason than his nomination poll numbers. it is his head to head matchup numbers that suck. he is the worst of the top four candidates against Clinton, according to those surveys. eventually, that catches up with you- typically, before the very first primary. WHEN that happens, Fiorina and Carson will be the primary beneficiaries- but i think that eventually, the numbers will come back to Bush. in a few months, i would expect Bush, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, and Trump to all be in the teens. if they stay that way for a couple of months, it will throw the early primaries into chaos. which, personally, i think would be GREAT. i love early primary chaos. do i expect Bush to be the eventual nominee? i still think he has a good shot- but i think he is in a lot of trouble. Rubio is polling better BOTH head to head AND in the primary, so he would be the guy i would pick right now- and i think he has a better than average shot of beating Clinton, if she wins. Head to head match up numbers are a gimmick at this point in the election. How many times have the GOP elite used these numbers to make the case that their voters should "nominate the candidate that can win"? When is the last time that prediction worked out for them? Trump is right- Romney choked. When Trump has his boot on Hillary's neck, he isn't going to "tone it down" in the last months of the campaign. He's going to crush her. Romney choked? when? how? seriously. i don't remember that. edit: i remember OBAMA choking in the first debate. i don't remember Romney choking AT ALL.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:24:51 GMT -5
Waterboarding involves pouring water over a suspect's face to simulate the effects of drowning.(from link above) What a bullshit description. Here is what it is: After what happened on 9/11, I don't care if we hook jumper cables from a nuclear power plant to their nipples while they're neck deep in raw sewage just for fun. If we get some information, bonus. But I really don't care one iota about these animals. #NoTearsForTerrorists after 911, "they" were all dead. torturing the living was immoral and pointless. #BushCheneyWarCrimes
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:26:41 GMT -5
That makes perfect sense and illustrates the effectiveness of the 9/11 attacks. I, also, don't care about them. I care about us. They should have had 72 hours to turn over bin Laden, or Kabul goes up in a radioactive cloud. We would not be living with an expanding islamist threat today had we taken care of business then. I love that the Russians are mercilessly killing these assholes. In the 60 minutes interview where Trump first said this, the interviewer asked / stated something to the effect "the Russians would own Syria. They'd never leave." to which Trump responded, "Do you want to own it?" Great question. bin Laden was in Kabul? not according to everything i have read. murdering 3M is about 1000x worse than murdering 3k. killing that many would have fueled 1000 years of terrorism. edit: please put your penis away before you make another post on this thread. tyia.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:33:01 GMT -5
I agree that we should have kept our eyes on the prize with regard to getting bin Ladin. Nuclear clouds? Not so much.
Yikes. We did that once, and we largely got a pass, because we were ending WW freaking II. Now we know what they do though, and what they unleash. This is not a precedent we want to set, anywhere.
We did that once and we are at peace with a people that were once under the spell of a nihilistic death cult that swore to die to the last man because they got a glimpse of our willingness to take the last man. the difference being that THAT Nihilistic Death Cult was contained on one island in the Pacific. there is ZERO containment of Islam. it is, literally, everywhere. dropping the bomb would instantaneously radicalize Islam 1000 fold.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:34:14 GMT -5
Aaah yes! Nothing like the smell of napalm in the morning! Unlike Vietnam, we actually were attacked by agents of an organization whose leader was being harbored by the Taliban government headquartered in Kabul. Today I say Go Russia, go! huh?
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Post by dondub on Oct 6, 2015 10:38:18 GMT -5
Accept for one tiny detail: The torture of al-Libi yielded a falsehood that was used to help justify the Iraq War. So the rabid dog torture merchants on the right and their apologists on the staff of Dick Cheney, Yoo and Addington, have the blood of thousands of American heroes on their hands....4000+ dead and many thousands more maimed for life. And the cost of this boondoggle will be $3-4 trillion. Now they whine incessantly about govt. debt and we know the 10 investigations of Benghazi over 4 deaths has yielded nothing. Furthermore, because America became a torture nation many high level conservatives in legal positions in State, Defense, Army resigned in protest. The FBI has been quite clear that torture is not the way to get the requisite information. Yet many drooling Americans seeking revenge completely supported these policies that ignored the Geneva Conventions and blackened our moral standing as a nation. "Ibn Shaykh al-Libi reported while in [censored: 'Egyptian'] custody that Iraq was supporting al-Qa'ida and providing assistance with chemical and biological weapons. Some of this information was cited by Secretary Powell in his speech at the United Nations, and was used as a justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Ibn Shaykh al-Libi recanted the claim after he was rendered to CIA custody on February [censored], 2003, claiming that he had been tortured by the [censored, likely 'Egyptians'], and only told them what he assessed they wanted to hear. For more more details, see Volume III." Of course, Volume III has not been made public. www.commondreams.org/views/2014/12/12/what-both-sides-are-ignoring-torture-did-work-produce-iraq-war
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:42:46 GMT -5
Accept for one tiny detail: The torture of al-Libi yielded a falsehood that was used to help justify the Iraq War. So the rabid dog torture merchants on the right and their apologists on the staff of Dick Cheney, Yoo and Addington, have the blood of thousands of American heroes on their hands....4000+ dead and many thousands more maimed for life. And the cost of this boondoggle will be $3-4 trillion. Now they whine incessantly about govt. debt and we know the 10 investigations of Benghazi over 4 deaths has yielded nothing. Furthermore, because America became a torture nation many high level conservatives in legal positions in State, Defense, Army resigned in protest. The FBI has been quite clear that torture is not the way to get the requisite information. Yet many drooling Americans seeking revenge completely supported these policies that ignored the Geneva Conventions and blackened our moral standing as a nation. "Ibn Shaykh al-Libi reported while in [censored: 'Egyptian'] custody that Iraq was supporting al-Qa'ida and providing assistance with chemical and biological weapons. Some of this information was cited by Secretary Powell in his speech at the United Nations, and was used as a justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Ibn Shaykh al-Libi recanted the claim after he was rendered to CIA custody on February [censored], 2003, claiming that he had been tortured by the [censored, likely 'Egyptians'], and only told them what he assessed they wanted to hear. For more more details, see Volume III." Of course, Volume III has not been made public. www.commondreams.org/views/2014/12/12/what-both-sides-are-ignoring-torture-did-work-produce-iraq-warthe British banned torture in the 50's not because it was immoral, but because it didn't produce good intelligence. in the 90's, we signed onto the Treaty Against Torture for the same reason. torturers should not go unpunished, imo. they should be tried for war crimes.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 6, 2015 10:44:55 GMT -5
if Trump really is the guy who would push the button, he should be kept as far away from it as possible.
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Post by dondub on Oct 6, 2015 12:03:16 GMT -5
They should have had 72 hours to turn over bin Laden, or Kabul goes up in a radioactive cloud.
Yes, let's mass murder millions of women and children from our born again Christian pro-life pedestal, creating a 1000 year jihad. Complete idiocy.
What we should have done is hunt and killed bin laden instead of calling that off and concentrating on Iraq. You even had the conservative Repo POTUS blowing it off as unimportant while Bin laden escaped across the frontier.
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