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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 25, 2015 14:01:02 GMT -5
these guys all need to get out, imo:
Christie Huckabee Kasich Paul Walker Pataki Santorum Jindal Graham
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 25, 2015 14:11:27 GMT -5
Wonder if there will be anything interesting when this deadline is met? (1) On or before October 1 of the year before the year in which the national convention is to be held, each Republican state committee shall adopt rules, procedures, policies, and instructive materials (prepared pursuant to Rule No. 15(a)) governing the election, selection, allocation, or binding of delegates and alternate delegates to the national convention to convene during the following year and shall certify and file with the secretary of the Republican National Committee true copies of the same and of all statutes governing the election, selection, allocation, or binding of such delegates and alternate delegates. s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf There are certainly possibilities if you read the options (at the above link) that are available to states.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 25, 2015 16:25:26 GMT -5
these guys all need to get out, imo: Christie Huckabee Kasich Paul Walker Pataki Santorum Jindal Graham If there are a significant number of states that opt for proportional distribution with no percentage requirement to be awarded delegates, then staying in makes sense. If it is mainly winner take all or 20% bottom line, then there is less reason for these folks to hang around. IM(not so)HO, of course.
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Sept 25, 2015 16:53:15 GMT -5
Jeb is a decent man, maybe a little too Hispanic and Latino forgiving, for their transgressions (but his wife and kids are brown, which is a beautiful color...he is a good guy with no balls, feather weight), with plenty of money.
His brother, I despise, his father, I admire greatly. What a man he was.
Lets just fast forward to March, and beyond.
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fishy999
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 25, 2015 17:14:51 GMT -5
You know your debate sucks when......you ask candidates about other candidates rather than what the hell they intend to do with the country and where they stand on issues. I get they were trying to find a way to oust Trump but how is at all fair to spend so much time on what came out of his mouth since the last debate? Hard to watch. Yes, but you do realize it was CNN'S debate AND their questions to the candidates. The candidates were not requested to share in the decision process of what questions they were asked. Yep- and that's why it sucked.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 27, 2015 14:31:22 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 27, 2015 14:58:30 GMT -5
the blush of invincibility is TOTALLY OFF TRUMP:
NBC/WSJ 9/20 - 9/24 21 20 11 11 7 5 6 3 2 3 1 -- 0 1 0 Trump +1 Trump
still out in front, but ONLY BY 6%, and only 1% up in the latest survey. Carson is really giving him a challenge, now. and i think it might stick, actually. Carson is a better candidate in many ways, and that is starting to come through, now.
Carson
Carson is still trending higher, and is now only 6% behind Trump. i think he might catch him. Fiorina is only 5% behind him.
Fiorina Rubio Bush Cruz
after showing well last week, Bush slipped back down to having his worst polling of the last year. but this still leaves him in the 3rd tier, and above Cruz.
Fiorino and Rubio continue to poll well. one of them might join Carson if they keep gaining.....
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 27, 2015 15:14:24 GMT -5
i wanted to add something about the relative position of the candidates, so you can get a feel for how their campaigns are trending both in the relative and absolute sense:
Trump: he is down 7% from his peak, about where he was six weeks ago, and still by far the best polling candidate in the 2016 race. Carson: he is down 3% from his peak 10 days ago, but rising again, and is doing about as well as Bush was before Trump started kicking his ass. Fiorina: she is in 3rd, and is at her best point of the race. all indications are that she will be doing even better. Rubio: in his best position since June, ahead of Bush, but still 5% below his May peak. Bush: above his stinking lows, but still below what i had once thought was his floor (11%). Cruz: not really going anywhere. no trend. he has been 5% higher, and 2% lower than he is now. still could make a move, but had better make it soon.
NOTE: Kasich just surveyed at 6%, which is tied for his best poll result. still not good enough to make 3rd tier, but getting there.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 27, 2015 22:47:05 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 27, 2015 23:00:22 GMT -5
i sorta agree with WaPo, but only if Trump doesn't collapse. if he does, all bets are off.
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Post by Shooby on Sept 28, 2015 12:23:09 GMT -5
He's going down. I'm yelling TIMBER!
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 29, 2015 16:52:59 GMT -5
Jeb Bush's Poll Numbers Are Terrible, So Why Isn't Anyone Talking About Them?www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/29/why-isnt-anyone-talking-about-jeb-bushs-terrible-poll-numbers/In April, one in every four likely Republican primary voters nationally said they would support Jeb Bush for president, according to an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Today, just 7 percent say the same. And, it's not just the NBC-WSJ poll; here's Bush's trend line since the start of the year: The answer to the question of course is money, but money isn't going to help Jeb Bush because he declared open war on the base of the Republican Party declaring he needed to " lose the primary to win the general" implying he didn't need the conservative base of the Republican Party to win. The conservative base of the GOP has a visceral contempt for Jeb Bush, and what Rush Limbaugh calls the " Donor Class. The GOP used to at least try to " con the hicks", but now they're openly contemptuous of the backbone of America and it has ruined any shot Jeb might have had-- which wasn't much to start with considering the burden of the Bush name.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 29, 2015 16:54:37 GMT -5
Jeb Bush's Poll Numbers Are Terrible, So Why Isn't Anyone Talking About Them?www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/29/why-isnt-anyone-talking-about-jeb-bushs-terrible-poll-numbers/In April, one in every four likely Republican primary voters nationally said they would support Jeb Bush for president, according to an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Today, just 7 percent say the same. And, it's not just the NBC-WSJ poll; here's Bush's trend line since the start of the year: The answer to the question of course is money, but money isn't going to help Jeb Bush because he declared open war on the base of the Republican Party declaring he needed to " lose the primary to win the general" implying he didn't need the conservative base of the Republican Party to win. The conservative base of the GOP has a visceral contempt for Jeb Bush, and what Rush Limbaugh calls the " Donor Class. The GOP used to at least try to " con the hicks", but now they're openly contemptuous of the backbone of America and it has ruined any shot Jeb might have had-- which wasn't much to start with considering the burden of the Bush name. we have been talking about them, here, right? i think Bush is actually in considerable trouble. as in, if he doesn't do something SOON, he is finished.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 29, 2015 16:56:54 GMT -5
he kinda reminds me of Perry in 2012. his campaign is bumbling and inept to a degree nobody expected. but moreover, i think that the GOP is not looking for anyone like Bush this year. personally, he is not anyone i could vote for. and it is really not his fault. i am sure he is a fine fellow. i just loathe me some Bush.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2015 0:38:16 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 30, 2015 7:33:57 GMT -5
Now, dj, be honest. Was she ever on your personal radar as someone you would vote for? Myself, only if she was up against Hillary. From someone who sometimes wakes up in the middle of the night choking, on sinus drainage, feeling like I am drowning, I cannot comprehend how waterboarding feels. I am for a lot of interrogation techniques but this one is simply wrong on all levels.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 30, 2015 7:46:15 GMT -5
Waterboarding involves pouring water over a suspect's face to simulate the effects of drowning.(from link above) What a bullshit description. Here is what it is:
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2015 10:28:27 GMT -5
Now, dj, be honest. Was she ever on your personal radar as someone you would vote for? of course! i am ALWAYS looking for Republicans to vote for. it is my party, after all.Myself, only if she was up against Hillary. From someone who sometimes wakes up in the middle of the night choking, on sinus drainage, feeling like I am drowning, I cannot comprehend how waterboarding feels. I am for a lot of interrogation techniques but this one is simply wrong on all levels. i have been opposed to torture since i first heard about it, and i have spent a lot of time and energy to make sure we never do it again.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2015 11:39:40 GMT -5
i just got this email from my pal, W:
George W. Bush
Dear Friend -
I know what it takes to sit in the Oval Office and deal with the issues that come across the President's desk. And I know that Jeb has what it takes to lead our nation. He has a clear vision and strong record of conservative accomplishment.
He's humble and compassionate. He exhibits courage, integrity and resolve. He understands that tough decisions must be made to keep Americans safe and defend our freedoms, even when it's not the popular thing to do.
But he needs your support.
Friend, will you get behind Jeb with a gift of $100, $50, $25 or $5?
The country needs a problem-solver who has a proven conservative record, an optimistic vision for our future, and is ready to lead on day one. That's Jeb.
The truth is, he can't do it without you and your financial support of $100, $50, $25 or even $5: Jeb2016.com/September-Supporter/
Laura and I appreciate your time and hope you'll join us in standing with Jeb.
Sincerely, George W. Bush George W. Bush
so much for the personal distance between Jeb and W.
he is toast.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2015 13:36:08 GMT -5
latest poll very bad for Kasich and Carson, and good for everyone else....
Trump
very good poll for him, he is back on top by 10%
Carson Fiorina
bad poll for Carson, and good for Fiorina. i am calling them both second tier, now. she was tied or ahead of Carson in 2 of the last 6 surveys. and yes, this means that i am a lot less certain of Carson catching Trump. disappointing.
Rubio Bush Cruz
all three of these guys are treading water. the latest survey was less than 1% off their polling average.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
these guys should drop out and leave room for the top six:
Kasich Huckabee Christie Paul Jindal Santorum Walker Pataki Graham
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Post by tallguy on Sept 30, 2015 19:22:49 GMT -5
Didn't Walker drop out last week?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2015 19:42:04 GMT -5
Didn't Walker drop out last week? yep. he will continue showing up in the polls for a while, tho.
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Post by tallguy on Sept 30, 2015 20:05:28 GMT -5
Yeah, understood. But still, shouldn't he now be free from the criticism that he should drop out?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2015 20:09:16 GMT -5
Yeah, understood. But still, shouldn't he now be free from the criticism that he should drop out? not until it is clear he is dropping out of everything, my friend.
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Post by Shooby on Oct 2, 2015 5:11:03 GMT -5
Well, sorry, not interested in some phony baloney who wants to "con the hicks". We already have enough liars in Washington already. Don't need anymore. Run as WHO you really are. At least with Trump, he can be a bit of jerk but I will respect that rather than talking to me with a mouth full of schit.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 4, 2015 9:47:19 GMT -5
Jeb Bush's Poll Numbers Are Terrible, So Why Isn't Anyone Talking About Them?www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/29/why-isnt-anyone-talking-about-jeb-bushs-terrible-poll-numbers/In April, one in every four likely Republican primary voters nationally said they would support Jeb Bush for president, according to an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Today, just 7 percent say the same. And, it's not just the NBC-WSJ poll; here's Bush's trend line since the start of the year: The answer to the question of course is money, but money isn't going to help Jeb Bush because he declared open war on the base of the Republican Party declaring he needed to " lose the primary to win the general" implying he didn't need the conservative base of the Republican Party to win. The conservative base of the GOP has a visceral contempt for Jeb Bush, and what Rush Limbaugh calls the " Donor Class. The GOP used to at least try to " con the hicks", but now they're openly contemptuous of the backbone of America and it has ruined any shot Jeb might have had-- which wasn't much to start with considering the burden of the Bush name. we have been talking about them, here, right? i think Bush is actually in considerable trouble. as in, if he doesn't do something SOON, he is finished. The strategy to split the vote is working- the only, and I mean ONLY threat to the GOP elite is Donald Trump. Every dollar going to virtually any other candidate is Jeb's money. This is how it works. Pataki, Graham, Santorum, Christie, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Rubio will fold at the right time and hand support to Jeb. Assuming Jeb was facing Cruz (which was the assumption of the original Roadmap), Jeb would suddenly be "neck and neck" or declared "the front runner". The Roadmap was designed to foul up the movement candidacy of Ted Cruz; but it works for any movement candidate. Trump fouled up the plan. Trump especially f***ed over Jeb on immigration which is now a deal breaker in the GOP primary; and he may have made it a deal breaker in the general by drawing attention to the sorts of high profile problems with immigration the public has been simmering over for decades while both parties craft a plan to surrender America to illegal aliens in the name of 'compassion'. They've modified the Roadmap- but will it be enough? By the way- I'm not supporting Trump, I'm supporting Cruz- and Cruz has not been dumping all over Trump for the same reason I won't: we need him right now. We need him until Bush is OUT. It may come down to us not having any choice if we're interested in voters ever having say in an American election ever again, but to support Trump. I don't like him, but we have to take elections back or none of this matters. If Trump will pick Cruz (I don't think he has a lot of respect for Carson-- and neither do I, frankly. I think Trump has a good read on people, and he will put Carson in a good spot- but not the #2 spot) as VP, then serve one term handing the baton to Cruz -- in kind of a reverse Reagan Bush move-- that will be acceptable to a lot of conservatives. I'm watching carefully, because I think we had our last shot in 2012 so it may already be over; but I'm trying to hold on to hope we can knock out the elites this time around. And if it has to be Trump, it has to be Trump.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 4, 2015 9:47:39 GMT -5
You can find the GOPe Roadmap at Conservative Tree House.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2015 12:32:42 GMT -5
we have been talking about them, here, right? i think Bush is actually in considerable trouble. as in, if he doesn't do something SOON, he is finished. The strategy to split the vote is working- the only, and I mean ONLY threat to the GOP elite is Donald Trump. Every dollar going to virtually any other candidate is Jeb's money. This is how it works. Pataki, Graham, Santorum, Christie, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Rubio will fold at the right time and hand support to Jeb. Assuming Jeb was facing Cruz (which was the assumption of the original Roadmap), Jeb would suddenly be "neck and neck" or declared "the front runner". The Roadmap was designed to foul up the movement candidacy of Ted Cruz; but it works for any movement candidate. Trump fouled up the plan. Trump especially f***ed over Jeb on immigration which is now a deal breaker in the GOP primary; and he may have made it a deal breaker in the general by drawing attention to the sorts of high profile problems with immigration the public has been simmering over for decades while both parties craft a plan to surrender America to illegal aliens in the name of 'compassion'. They've modified the Roadmap- but will it be enough? By the way- I'm not supporting Trump, I'm supporting Cruz- and Cruz has not been dumping all over Trump for the same reason I won't: we need him right now. We need him until Bush is OUT. It may come down to us not having any choice if we're interested in voters ever having say in an American election ever again, but to support Trump. I don't like him, but we have to take elections back or none of this matters. If Trump will pick Cruz (I don't think he has a lot of respect for Carson-- and neither do I, frankly. I think Trump has a good read on people, and he will put Carson in a good spot- but not the #2 spot) as VP, then serve one term handing the baton to Cruz -- in kind of a reverse Reagan Bush move-- that will be acceptable to a lot of conservatives. I'm watching carefully, because I think we had our last shot in 2012 so it may already be over; but I'm trying to hold on to hope we can knock out the elites this time around. And if it has to be Trump, it has to be Trump. this is pretty lucid, and i am not going to argue with it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2015 12:41:56 GMT -5
big news just out. in the latest poll, Trump is in second (IBD/TIPP), and by a WIDE margin. silence from the media, so far. but you can read it, here: legalinsurrection.com/2015/10/new-polls-have-carson-surging-while-trump-falls/Trump still up, but only 5%, now. and falling. after (28) straight polls with him on top, he polled second in the latest survey by a whopping 7%.
Carson latest poll has him leading Trump by 7%, and everyone else by double digits. very good news for Carson. he is all alone in second overall.Fiorina Rubio Bush Cruz Fiorina is leading Cruz outside of polling error, but Carson and Trump are leading Fiorina outside of polling error. so, i am really not sure where to put Fiorina, but the other three are solidly in the 3rd tier, and well above any remaining competition.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 4, 2015 12:59:27 GMT -5
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