Waffle
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Post by Waffle on Sept 21, 2015 9:16:58 GMT -5
Didn't Kasich say he wants a ban on abortion for a fetus with genetic abnormalities.. It's specifically Down Syndrome. He said he would sign the bill to make abortion illegal if the reason is that the fetus is found to have Down Syndrome. I can't imagine how that could be legal, not to mention how could you enforce such a law? I can just imagine that a woman decides she wants an abortion because the child she is carrying has Downs, so she gets the abortion, but just doesn't admit that was the reason. It seems ridiculous.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 21, 2015 10:34:39 GMT -5
Didn't Kasich say he wants a ban on abortion for a fetus with genetic abnormalities.. It's specifically Down Syndrome. He said he would sign the bill to make abortion illegal if the reason is that the fetus is found to have Down Syndrome. I can't imagine how that could be legal, not to mention how could you enforce such a law? I can just imagine that a woman decides she wants an abortion because the child she is carrying has Downs, so she gets the abortion, but just doesn't admit that was the reason. It seems ridiculous.
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How about providing medical proof no human was involved in a woman's miscarriage? A Georgia legislature rep tried to pass a law like that a few years ago. "It's only February [2011], but this year has been a tough one for women's health and reproductive rights. There's a new bill on the block that may have reached the apex (I hope) of woman-hating craziness. Georgia State Rep. Bobby Franklin—who last year proposed making rape and domestic violence "victims" into "accusers"—has introduced a 10-page bill that would criminalize miscarriages and make abortion in Georgia completely illegal. Both miscarriages and abortions would be potentially punishable by death: any "prenatal murder" in the words of the bill, including "human involvement" in a miscarriage, would be a felony and carry a penalty of life in prison or death. Basically, it's everything an "pro-life" activist could want aside from making all women who've had abortions wear big red "A"s on their chests." Ga. Law Could Give Death Penalty for Miscarriages
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 21, 2015 11:00:38 GMT -5
Looks like Bush held steady at 9% in the latest poll, but is dropping behind due to Carly and Cruz gaining steam. This is the GOP Roadmap to Victory "splitter strategy" in play as detailed over at The idea is for Carly, Cruz, Carson, and Rubio to trade votes throughout the cycle dropping out or being eliminated one by one with Jeb picking up the pieces. The monkey wrench in the plan is Trump. I am increasingly convinced that Trump might be the emergency measure required to beat Jeb and kill the establishment. theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/09/16/the-modified-gope-strategy-road-map-the-full-monte/
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2015 12:18:03 GMT -5
Looks like Bush held steady at 9% in the latest poll, but is dropping behind due to Carly and Cruz gaining steam. he isn't dropping behind. he is dropping "IN". he has been stuck at around 9-10% for at least a month. but yes, Cruz and Fiorina are rising (at the expense of candidates like Paul, Christie, and Santorum). they now are all fighting for a shot at the second tier. one of them will get there, but i am not sure who right now. i think that Paul might be right on this: Cruz might be next.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2015 12:47:36 GMT -5
this is FINALLY starting to get interesting:
CNN/ORC 9/17 - 9/19 24 14 9 11 6 15 6 4 2 3 0 -- 1 0 0 Trump +9 CBS/NYT 9/9 - 9/13 27 23 6 6 5 4 6 3 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 Trump +4
so, these latest two surveys have Trump at his lowest levels in a month. he is FINALLY getting some well deserved light on his campaign.
what i find MOST interesting in the latest survey is that Carson's numbers are ALSO way off, and 3rd tier candidates are getting some attention.
Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina Huckabee
Trump is still way ahead- by double digits, but i see some softening here. he is going to get a challenge either from Carson or Fiorina.
Carson is even further ahead of the 3rd tier than he was a week ago- by 11%. but there is reason to think that his day in the sun might be over, as well. we will have to wait for more polling data to tell. and yes, i am surprised by this.
Third tier: Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina Huckabee
Bush is holding his own @ 9% Rubio just got his best poll result since JUNE at 11% Fiorina is on fire. she has been polling very well for (6) weeks now, and is now in 6th (and 2nd in the latest survey). her latest poll number is up 11% from the previous one, so we will have to see if it is a fluke, or if it holds. Huck is hanging in there at 6%, which is a respectable number in a field of 16.
OF NOTE: Walker got ZERO PERCENT in the latest survey. he has got to be terrified. well, if he has any sense, that is.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2015 12:53:26 GMT -5
i have to add something more about the bottom end of the field.
Walker is something to behold. he was in 1st place throughout MARCH. an entire month. he peaked at a very respectable 20%, which is about where Carson is now. since then he has gone straight to hell. this group of FIVE got precisely 1% of the vote:
Walker Perry Santorum Jindal Graham
Santorum got the 1%
amazing.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 21, 2015 14:27:14 GMT -5
this is FINALLY starting to get interesting: CNN/ORC 9/17 - 9/19 24 14 9 11 6 15 6 4 2 3 0 -- 1 0 0 Trump +9 CBS/NYT 9/9 - 9/13 27 23 6 6 5 4 6 3 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 Trump +4 so, these latest two surveys have Trump at his lowest levels in a month. he is FINALLY getting some well deserved light on his campaign. what i find MOST interesting in the latest survey is that Carson's numbers are ALSO way off, and 3rd tier candidates are getting some attention. Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Trump is still way ahead- by double digits, but i see some softening here. he is going to get a challenge either from Carson or Fiorina. Carson is even further ahead of the 3rd tier than he was a week ago- by 11%. but there is reason to think that his day in the sun might be over, as well. we will have to wait for more polling data to tell. and yes, i am surprised by this. Third tier: Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina HuckabeeBush is holding his own @ 9% Rubio just got his best poll result since JUNE at 11% Fiorina is on fire. she has been polling very well for (6) weeks now, and is now in 6th (and 2nd in the latest survey). her latest poll number is up 11% from the previous one, so we will have to see if it is a fluke, or if it holds. Huck is hanging in there at 6%, which is a respectable number in a field of 16. OF NOTE: Walker got ZERO PERCENT in the latest survey. he has got to be terrified. well, if he has any sense, that is. I have no problem with the poll results based on the debate. Quite frankly I am shocked Trump did not fall further than shown. The first hour of the debate followed the Fox debate where the moderator went out of his way to portray Trump as a bad guy by quoting his statements, and then asking the person that was addressed in the quote, "WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SAY TO HIM?" And the moderator also fell into the trap of allowing Crly to demand to answer almost any querstion, when he would cut off other participants and say we are going to a new question. It was sort of a rigged game in a lot of ways.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2015 14:30:00 GMT -5
this is FINALLY starting to get interesting: CNN/ORC 9/17 - 9/19 24 14 9 11 6 15 6 4 2 3 0 -- 1 0 0 Trump +9 CBS/NYT 9/9 - 9/13 27 23 6 6 5 4 6 3 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 Trump +4 so, these latest two surveys have Trump at his lowest levels in a month. he is FINALLY getting some well deserved light on his campaign. what i find MOST interesting in the latest survey is that Carson's numbers are ALSO way off, and 3rd tier candidates are getting some attention. Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Trump is still way ahead- by double digits, but i see some softening here. he is going to get a challenge either from Carson or Fiorina. Carson is even further ahead of the 3rd tier than he was a week ago- by 11%. but there is reason to think that his day in the sun might be over, as well. we will have to wait for more polling data to tell. and yes, i am surprised by this. Third tier: Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina HuckabeeBush is holding his own @ 9% Rubio just got his best poll result since JUNE at 11% Fiorina is on fire. she has been polling very well for (6) weeks now, and is now in 6th (and 2nd in the latest survey). her latest poll number is up 11% from the previous one, so we will have to see if it is a fluke, or if it holds. Huck is hanging in there at 6%, which is a respectable number in a field of 16. OF NOTE: Walker got ZERO PERCENT in the latest survey. he has got to be terrified. well, if he has any sense, that is. I have no problem with the poll results based on the debate. Quite frankly I am shocked Trump did not fall further than shown. don't be. the impact of things takes a bit to be felt on candidates. particularly if Trump said things DURING the debate that other candidates can use on the campaign trail.The first hour of the debate followed the Fox debate where the moderator went out of his way to portray Trump as a bad guy by quoting his statements, and then asking the person that was addressed in the quote, "WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SAY TO HIM?" And the moderator also fell into the trap of allowing Carly to demand to answer almost any question, when he would cut off other participants and say we are going to a new question. It was sort of a rigged game in a lot of ways. interesting. i didn't watch it. i was out with friends that night in Chicago.
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 21, 2015 20:14:35 GMT -5
You know your debate sucks when......you ask candidates about other candidates rather than what the hell they intend to do with the country and where they stand on issues. I get they were trying to find a way to oust Trump but how is at all fair to spend so much time on what came out of his mouth since the last debate? Hard to watch.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 21, 2015 20:16:30 GMT -5
You know your debate sucks when......you ask candidates about other candidates rather than what the hell they intend to do with the country and where they stand on issues. I get they were trying to find a way to oust Trump but how is at all fair to spend so much time on what came out of his mouth since the last debate? Hard to watch. Yes, but you do realize it was CNN'S debate AND their questions to the candidates. The candidates were not requested to share in the decision process of what questions they were asked.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Sept 22, 2015 8:40:40 GMT -5
Walker's out now.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2015 9:38:42 GMT -5
i have been thinking about this field. everyone has figured Bush is a dead duck. but think about it.
people like Carson say a lot of unvarnished stuff that is eventually going to get them in trouble. now, it is true that there are three of them in the top 10 right now, and that increases the odds that one will win the nomination. i will grant that. but they are also OVERWHELMINGLY likely to say something really stupid on the campaign trail, or to get caught up in a lie or scandal. Walker and Perry are not victims of Trump, they are victims of a combination of deprivation of oxygen and nothing unique or important to say (they also said things that made them look ridiculous). i think, of the two, the Walker case is more interesting in that Walker had an infinite well of money to support his ambitions. it did him no good.
Trump has already said plenty to get him in trouble. it is just a matter of time, imo. loudmouths are entertaining, but ultimately nobody wants them in their circle of friends. Fiorina has already been caught lying, and Carson has said many stupid things. if the GOP wants to turn them over in the sun and check out all the angles, that's fine- but i think they will find that these were not gaffes- but essential parts of their characters.
what we will be left with, if i am correct, is Rubio, Bush, Huckabee, and Cruz.
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Post by marvholly on Sept 23, 2015 5:54:35 GMT -5
i have been thinking about this field. everyone has figured Bush is a dead duck. but think about it. people like Carson say a lot of unvarnished stuff that is eventually going to get them in trouble. now, it is true that there are three of them in the top 10 right now, and that increases the odds that one will win the nomination. i will grant that. but they are also OVERWHELMINGLY likely to say something really stupid on the campaign trail, or to get caught up in a lie or scandal. Walker and Perry are not victims of Trump, they are victims of a combination of deprivation of oxygen and nothing unique or important to say (they also said things that made them look ridiculous). i think, of the two, the Walker case is more interesting in that Walker had an infinite well of money to support his ambitions. it did him no good. Trump has already said plenty to get him in trouble. it is just a matter of time, imo. loudmouths are entertaining, but ultimately nobody wants them in their circle of friends. Fiorina has already been caught lying, and Carson has said many stupid things. if the GOP wants to turn them over in the sun and check out all the angles, that's fine- but i think they will find that these were not gaffes- but essential parts of their characters. what we will be left with, if i am correct, is Rubio, Bush, Huckabee, and Cruz.
I sure hope NOT. I could stand Bush or Rubio but NOT huckabee or Cruz.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2015 10:53:22 GMT -5
i have been thinking about this field. everyone has figured Bush is a dead duck. but think about it. people like Carson say a lot of unvarnished stuff that is eventually going to get them in trouble. now, it is true that there are three of them in the top 10 right now, and that increases the odds that one will win the nomination. i will grant that. but they are also OVERWHELMINGLY likely to say something really stupid on the campaign trail, or to get caught up in a lie or scandal. Walker and Perry are not victims of Trump, they are victims of a combination of deprivation of oxygen and nothing unique or important to say (they also said things that made them look ridiculous). i think, of the two, the Walker case is more interesting in that Walker had an infinite well of money to support his ambitions. it did him no good. Trump has already said plenty to get him in trouble. it is just a matter of time, imo. loudmouths are entertaining, but ultimately nobody wants them in their circle of friends. Fiorina has already been caught lying, and Carson has said many stupid things. if the GOP wants to turn them over in the sun and check out all the angles, that's fine- but i think they will find that these were not gaffes- but essential parts of their characters. what we will be left with, if i am correct, is Rubio, Bush, Huckabee, and Cruz.
I sure hope NOT. I could stand Bush or Rubio but NOT huckabee or Cruz.
Huck has the lowest chance of winning, ime. the other three are viable.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 23, 2015 18:02:51 GMT -5
i have been thinking about this field. everyone has figured Bush is a dead duck. but think about it. people like Carson say a lot of unvarnished stuff that is eventually going to get them in trouble. now, it is true that there are three of them in the top 10 right now, and that increases the odds that one will win the nomination. i will grant that. but they are also OVERWHELMINGLY likely to say something really stupid on the campaign trail, or to get caught up in a lie or scandal. Walker and Perry are not victims of Trump, they are victims of a combination of deprivation of oxygen and nothing unique or important to say (they also said things that made them look ridiculous). i think, of the two, the Walker case is more interesting in that Walker had an infinite well of money to support his ambitions. it did him no good. Trump has already said plenty to get him in trouble. it is just a matter of time, imo. loudmouths are entertaining, but ultimately nobody wants them in their circle of friends. Fiorina has already been caught lying, and Carson has said many stupid things. if the GOP wants to turn them over in the sun and check out all the angles, that's fine- but i think they will find that these were not gaffes- but essential parts of their characters. what we will be left with, if i am correct, is Rubio, Bush, Huckabee, and Cruz. I agree with your over all premise. I am wondering about Rubio and Cruz. Don't they pretty much cancel each other out? I just do not see Huckabee going anywhere. I would think Kasich and Christy will hang in past Huckabee.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 23, 2015 18:08:18 GMT -5
Adding to dj's thoughts above, I see the top three actually helping the middle of the road candidates. I see the very conservative Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio side doing the same thing for the middle of the road candidates. Both ends of the spectrum cushion the middle.
It really comes down to how the top and bottom group fall out and leave. The longer they are in there, the better for Bush.
Unless, of course, most are all still in it next year in July and August......... if they are, we have one end of the spectrum winning it all.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2015 18:19:25 GMT -5
i have been thinking about this field. everyone has figured Bush is a dead duck. but think about it. people like Carson say a lot of unvarnished stuff that is eventually going to get them in trouble. now, it is true that there are three of them in the top 10 right now, and that increases the odds that one will win the nomination. i will grant that. but they are also OVERWHELMINGLY likely to say something really stupid on the campaign trail, or to get caught up in a lie or scandal. Walker and Perry are not victims of Trump, they are victims of a combination of deprivation of oxygen and nothing unique or important to say (they also said things that made them look ridiculous). i think, of the two, the Walker case is more interesting in that Walker had an infinite well of money to support his ambitions. it did him no good. Trump has already said plenty to get him in trouble. it is just a matter of time, imo. loudmouths are entertaining, but ultimately nobody wants them in their circle of friends. Fiorina has already been caught lying, and Carson has said many stupid things. if the GOP wants to turn them over in the sun and check out all the angles, that's fine- but i think they will find that these were not gaffes- but essential parts of their characters. what we will be left with, if i am correct, is Rubio, Bush, Huckabee, and Cruz. I agree with your over all premise. I am wondering about Rubio and Cruz. Don't they pretty much cancel each other out? I just do not see Huckabee going anywhere. I would think Kasich and Christy will hang in past Huckabee. i think Kasich and Cristie will be out before EOY. Rubio and Cruz appeal to slightly different constituencies. Rubio is less of a TP guy, and more appealing to Latino voters.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2015 18:21:35 GMT -5
Adding to dj's thoughts above, I see the top three actually helping the middle of the road candidates. I see the very conservative Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio side doing the same thing for the middle of the road candidates. Both ends of the spectrum cushion the middle. It really comes down to how the top and bottom group fall out and leave. The longer they are in there, the better for Bush. Unless, of course, most are all still in it next year in July and August......... if they are, we have one end of the spectrum winning it all. i agree with this. i think the loopy outsiders soaking up all of the early attention is good for the mainstream candidates. it worked for Romney, and it will very likely work for Cruz, Bush and Rubio. as the campaign wears on, people will see how composed guys like Rubio are (he is really super composed, and makes very few rhetorical errors), and flock to them. at least, that is what has happened in the last two cycles.
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 23, 2015 21:37:06 GMT -5
Adding to dj's thoughts above, I see the top three actually helping the middle of the road candidates. I see the very conservative Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio side doing the same thing for the middle of the road candidates. Both ends of the spectrum cushion the middle. It really comes down to how the top and bottom group fall out and leave. The longer they are in there, the better for Bush. Unless, of course, most are all still in it next year in July and August......... if they are, we have one end of the spectrum winning it all. i agree with this. i think the loopy outsiders soaking up all of the early attention is good for the mainstream candidates. it worked for Romney, and it will very likely work for Cruz, Bush and Rubio. as the campaign wears on, people will see how composed guys like Rubio are (he is really super composed, and makes very few rhetorical errors), and flock to them. at least, that is what has happened in the last two cycles. There was that Rubio water bottle incident during the nationally televised Republican response to Obama's State of the Union address.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 23, 2015 22:52:50 GMT -5
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Post by marvholly on Sept 24, 2015 5:53:19 GMT -5
But 8 points is WAAAY less than Trump had as a lead just a few weeks ago. Slipping down a slippery slope? Sure hope so. Otherwise Canada is beginning to look pretty good to me.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 24, 2015 8:21:36 GMT -5
But 8 points is WAAAY less than Trump had as a lead just a few weeks ago. Slipping down a slippery slope? Sure hope so. Otherwise Canada is beginning to look pretty good to me. You wish. And Canada is dark and cold in the winter......... Polls are very flexible, and you cannot stay completely at the top through the whole run without some movement up and down. Carson gained on him. as well as Fiorina, the two outsiders besides him. Latest Florida poll has him at 31% about 11 or 12 points ahead of the next person, and more against number three, Bush. In Florida no less!
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 24, 2015 8:24:10 GMT -5
marvholly, Canada may not be a bad idea right now. The dollar is worth $1.25 up there. You can live high on the hog up there.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2015 12:16:34 GMT -5
i agree with this. i think the loopy outsiders soaking up all of the early attention is good for the mainstream candidates. it worked for Romney, and it will very likely work for Cruz, Bush and Rubio. as the campaign wears on, people will see how composed guys like Rubio are (he is really super composed, and makes very few rhetorical errors), and flock to them. at least, that is what has happened in the last two cycles. There was that Rubio water bottle incident during the nationally televised Republican response to Obama's State of the Union address. ooh! gossip!!! link
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2015 12:17:32 GMT -5
But 8 points is WAAAY less than Trump had as a lead just a few weeks ago. Slipping down a slippery slope? Sure hope so. Otherwise Canada is beginning to look pretty good to me. You wish. And Canada is dark and cold in the winter......... Canada also has f(*king Harper, who is as bad as BUSH, imo. wait a month, and see.....
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2015 12:18:25 GMT -5
But 8 points is WAAAY less than Trump had as a lead just a few weeks ago. Slipping down a slippery slope? Sure hope so. Otherwise Canada is beginning to look pretty good to me. You wish. And Canada is dark and cold in the winter......... Polls are very flexible, and you cannot stay completely at the top through the whole run without some movement up and down. Carson gained on him. as well as Fiorina, the two outsiders besides him. Latest Florida poll has him at 31% about 11 or 12 points ahead of the next person, and more against number three, Bush. In Florida no less! i would not read too much into this. when is Florida's primary?
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 24, 2015 12:21:56 GMT -5
There was that Rubio water bottle incident during the nationally televised Republican response to Obama's State of the Union address. ooh! gossip!!! link Seriously? Okay.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2015 12:27:35 GMT -5
ooh! gossip!!! link Seriously? Okay. LOL! this is precious.
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Post by marvholly on Sept 25, 2015 5:15:19 GMT -5
But 8 points is WAAAY less than Trump had as a lead just a few weeks ago. Slipping down a slippery slope? Sure hope so. Otherwise Canada is beginning to look pretty good to me. You wish. And Canada is dark and cold in the winter......... Polls are very flexible, and you cannot stay completely at the top through the whole run without some movement up and down. Carson gained on him. as well as Fiorina, the two outsiders besides him. Latest Florida poll has him at 31% about 11 or 12 points ahead of the next person, and more against number three, Bush. In Florida no less!
And metro Chicago is dark, cold and SNOWY and I do NOT have a garage so I have to go out, clean off my car and move it not matter the weather for our even/odd parking days to allow snowplowing.
Promise to self: If/when I move MUST have garage/indoor parking.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 25, 2015 13:58:36 GMT -5
ok, another small adjustment. Huck is polling badly now, so i think he is pretty much out of it. Christie got 5% in the latest survey- his best result since MAY. we will have to see if that means anything or not. right now, i am thinking it doesn't. Trump still way out in front, but his support has dropped about 5% in the last few weeks.Carson still all alone in second, but his support has ALSO dropped, about half as much as Trump.Fiorina Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina is a couple % ahead of Bush and Rubio, but all three are on the rise, and stealing share from Trump and Carson. Bush and Rubio are basically tied. this has been a good week for Bush. he got two polls over 10% in a row for the first time in six weeks. Cruz is actually not really gaining, but he is holding his own very solidly at the bottom end of the third tier.
i am kinda questioning whether Carson or Fiorina can catch Trump, at this point. i think that it is more likely that he will start to sink in his own bullshit and kill his own campaign. i don't think the other candidates need to do much. the most likely outcome, going forward, is that we end up with 2-3 candidates in the 15-20% range, and then it will go state by state. it might be that there are insufficient numbers for any candidate to win the nomination, or it might be that the candidate that wins the first couple of states will get some momentum from it.
this is a more interesting race than i expected.
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