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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2015 18:59:22 GMT -5
there was a point in time about a year ago when i thought he would be a front runner. now, i am wondering if he might be the first guy to drop out.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Aug 31, 2015 19:58:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't count Bush out at all. He still has that national name recognition and beaucoups dinero behind him. There is plenty of time left in this hunt. It's not like the election is this November.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2015 21:52:41 GMT -5
weekly update!
Trump
first tier by a mile
Carson Bush
second tier. Bush is falling, Carson is rising. if Bush keeps falling, he will be 3rd tier in a week, and Carson will be all alone in 2nd.
Cruz Rubio Walker Fiorina Kasich Huckabee
Cruz, Fiorina and Kasich are rising. in fact, the latter two have had their best polling numbers of the season since the first debate. Fiorina has a shot at moving into the second tier. she has good momentum, and her best numbers of the campaign in the last five polls.
Huckabee and Walker are falling. the latter has lost half his support in the last month. Rubio has been steady for six weeks.
anyone not mentioned here is not currently in contention. unless something miraculous happens, they are stuck at the kids table. in addition, if Huck and Walker don't do something, they are going to fall off the map.
i am counting nine, there. fully half the field is barely registering: 6% between them (which is what Kasich got all by himself).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 3, 2015 14:51:40 GMT -5
Trump
all alone in front. leading by 12-16% depending on the poll.
Carson
all alone in second. leading the rest of the field by 5-10%. the latest poll had him at 18%, which is the best showing of any candidate in the race other than Bush and Trump. in other words = he is for real.
Bush Cruz Rubio Walker Fiorina Huckabee Kasich
so, the only change here is that i moved Bush to 3rd tier. he now has to claw his way up. Carson has a good shot at dethroning Trump, imo. he is more articulate and policy based, more diplomatic, and less confrontational. Kasich, Fiorina, Walker, and Huck all got clobbered in the latest survey. Rubio had his 2nd worst showing since March. Cruz has been polling pretty well for a while now, and is tied for 3rd with Bush- but he has still not polled over 10% since July 25th. other than Carson and Trump, he is the only candidate trending up. i doubt he will move into the 2nd tier, but it is possible.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 3, 2015 20:09:27 GMT -5
Trump's news conference this afternoon, he went at Bush over his big money donors.
Later today somewhere on cable news it was announced Kasich and his donors are now the big money spenders, spending more money than anyone so far.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2015 11:51:04 GMT -5
so, i just noticed two interesting things about the polling numbers:
1) Bush's last (3) polls are the worst consecutive polls for him since surveying started (2) years ago. he should be concerned. 2) Carson's numbers have jumped 3% in the last (3) consecutive polls- a very good trend for him.
it will be interesting to see how Trump does in the next survey. he appears to have peaked at around 30%, but we shall see.
edit: for those of you watching SANDERS, i think he ALSO has peaked- unless Biden decides to not enter the race.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2015 11:43:46 GMT -5
i think that the press is getting the narrative of the GOP nomination all wrong by comparing it to 2012. in 2012, we had a few real whackadoodles running, and a very unpleasant fellow who was the expected nominee. what happened in that race is that the unqualified people were popped up against Romney, and found wanting in short order, fell back. that is NOT how the field is in 2016. the field this time has more qualified candidates than i have ever seen run. therefore, the candidates are staying up way longer. Christie was first. he lead the early polling for a good long while. i can't remember how long, but it was over 3 months. then Bush lead- for over SEVEN months. now Trump is leading- and he will probably lead for 3-7 months, like the other front runners. now, it is true that there have also been two "bouncers" this time: Paul and Walker, both of whom got their 6 weeks of fame, and both of whom are languishing in the low single digits, now, and neither of which have any chance for the nomination, imo. Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Fiorina and Carson all have a chance of catching Trump, imo. the fluff bomb campaign he is running is not going to carry him (14) months. now, he could make a monkey out of me by going substantive, but i honestly don't think he has it in him, and i also think it is what voters want, so i think he is going to fail, and one of those five will catch him- maybe MORE than one. Carson has the best immediate chance. watch this space.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 9, 2015 20:19:56 GMT -5
i think that the press is getting the narrative of the GOP nomination all wrong by comparing it to 2012. in 2012, we had a few real whackadoodles running, and a very unpleasant fellow who was the expected nominee. what happened in that race is that the unqualified people were popped up against Romney, and found wanting in short order, fell back. that is NOT how the field is in 2016. the field this time has more qualified candidates than i have ever seen run. therefore, the candidates are staying up way longer. Christie was first. he lead the early polling for a good long while. i can't remember how long, but it was over 3 months. then Bush lead- for over SEVEN months. now Trump is leading- and he will probably lead for 3-7 months, like the other front runners. now, it is true that there have also been two "bouncers" this time: Paul and Walker, both of whom got their 6 weeks of fame, and both of whom are languishing in the low single digits, now, and neither of which have any chance for the nomination, imo. Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Fiorina and Carson all have a chance of catching Trump, imo. the fluff bomb campaign he is running is not going to carry him (14) months. now, he could make a monkey out of me by going substantive, but i honestly don't think he has it in him, and i also think it is what voters want, so i think he is going to fail, and one of those five will catch him- maybe MORE than one. Carson has the best immediate chance. watch this space. I like your last sentence. watch this space.So true. Bush in 2016!
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 9, 2015 21:41:54 GMT -5
Jeb? Jeb who?
Where is Jeb?
Never getting the nomination ever. That's where.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 10, 2015 9:38:32 GMT -5
If Jeb wins the nomination there's no way in hell he wins the general. The Bush name and his decision to apparently reinstate all of his older brother's cabinet will get his ass handed to him in pretty short order. If Jeb is the nominee the Dem, no matter who it is, walks all over him come November. He might be the one candidate that's even less electable than Trump. The old Bush network obviously wants another Bush in office, but considering that not a single candidate wanted Bush campaigning for them in 2008 I think it's safe to say the Bush machine has lost most of its clout. Seriously, Deez Nutz could probably throw his name in the ring as an independent and get more votes than another Bush in the general election. The online betting has Jeb winning the nomination. The on line betting has whoever the nominees are in the fall election, going to the Democratic nominee, 57 to 43 percent right now. Online betting is usually very accurate in predicting the outcome.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2015 10:01:00 GMT -5
in this case, i am agreeing with VB. Bush should not be underestimated.
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 10, 2015 21:06:10 GMT -5
His tax plan stinks- not anything different than his brother wanted- a giant screw to people that actually work for a living. Amazingly he will get plenty of votes from people that would be thrown under the bus by it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2015 11:56:14 GMT -5
i am going to drop Kasich off the list today. i just don't think he has a realistic chance this year, given the appetite for fringe candidates.
Trump
front runner. all alone. by wide margin.
Carson
second tier. all alone. by wide margin.
Bush Cruz Rubio Fiorina Walker Huckabee
Huck is in danger of being OUT. so is Walker.
note: i think it was really dumb for Perry to get out before the second debate, but i think he is a lousy candidate, so who cares?
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Post by tallguy on Sept 13, 2015 14:23:27 GMT -5
I can see it now. -------------------
So many candidates, so many twits....
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 13, 2015 16:12:20 GMT -5
Huckabee was out before he was out. The same with Santorum.
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Post by tallguy on Sept 13, 2015 16:18:22 GMT -5
Huckabee, Santorum, and Perry. Three who should have been out before they were IN.
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 13, 2015 16:24:26 GMT -5
Good riddance to the theocratic triumvirate.
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 13, 2015 16:52:50 GMT -5
i am going to drop Kasich off the list today. i just don't think he has a realistic chance this year, given the appetite for fringe candidates. Trump front runner. all alone. by wide margin.Carson second tier. all alone. by wide margin.Bush Cruz Rubio Fiorina Walker Huckabee Huck is in danger of being OUT. so is Walker. note: i think it was really dumb for Perry to get out before the second debate, but i think he is a lousy candidate, so who cares? Kasich was done from the start- he expanded Medicaid.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2015 20:34:09 GMT -5
i am going to drop Kasich off the list today. i just don't think he has a realistic chance this year, given the appetite for fringe candidates. Trump front runner. all alone. by wide margin.Carson second tier. all alone. by wide margin.Bush Cruz Rubio Fiorina Walker Huckabee Huck is in danger of being OUT. so is Walker. note: i think it was really dumb for Perry to get out before the second debate, but i think he is a lousy candidate, so who cares? Kasich was done from the start- he expanded Medicaid. needless to say, he is one of the few on the bus that i kinda liked.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 13, 2015 21:50:58 GMT -5
Kasich was done from the start- he expanded Medicaid. needless to say, he is one of the few on the bus that i kinda liked. Not sure he was on the bus, I am thinking it is more like he was skitching.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2015 21:53:13 GMT -5
Good riddance to the theocratic triumvirate. now he has more time to deal with his indictment.
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Post by dondub on Sept 13, 2015 22:54:01 GMT -5
Kasich was done from the start- he expanded Medicaid.
really, what a putz! True Repo family values do not include providing health care access for the poor among us. Kick this asshole RINO to the curb and let the poor die as usual.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Sept 14, 2015 11:21:15 GMT -5
Kasich was done from the start- he expanded Medicaid. needless to say, he is one of the few on the bus that i kinda liked. Ditto.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 14, 2015 21:19:46 GMT -5
Who has the most to lose by disappointing the audience at the CNN debate? In no particular order..... Rubio? Cruz? Walker? Paul? Kasich? Christie? All the above could disappear if they do not bust some kind of move.
Trump? Carson? Florina? Probably not. They seem to be golden right now.
This leaves Jeb. IMO this is make or break moment. He cannot afford to fall any more if he wants to compete. Any candidate left off the list, is already toast, in my book.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2015 21:36:10 GMT -5
Who has the most to lose by disappointing the audience at the CNN debate? In no particular order..... Rubio? Cruz? Walker? Paul? Kasich? Christie? All the above could disappear if they do not bust some kind of move. Cruz. he is the only one with upward momentum.Trump? Carson? Florina? Probably not. They seem to be golden right now. i think those three have more to lose than your first list. if you are in the doghouse, and you stay there, you haven't lost anything.This leaves Jeb. IMO this is make or break moment. He cannot afford to fall any more if he wants to compete. Any candidate left off the list, is already toast, in my book. i am pretty sure he will fail in the debates. so, then it becomes an issue of whether other candidates fail worse.
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Post by fishy999 on Sept 14, 2015 21:48:10 GMT -5
Kasich was done from the start- he expanded Medicaid. needless to say, he is one of the few on the bus that i kinda liked. He even made a good argument about why he did it- but it can't cut through tone deaf idiots.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2015 21:52:39 GMT -5
needless to say, he is one of the few on the bus that i kinda liked. He even made a good argument about why he did it- but it can't cut through tone deaf idiots. he is a smart guy, with true Maverick creds, and a good head for politics. precisely the kind of guy the GOP is kicking to the curb this year.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 15, 2015 7:53:58 GMT -5
He even made a good argument about why he did it- but it can't cut through tone deaf idiots. he is a smart guy, with true Maverick creds, and a good head for politics. precisely the kind of guy the GOP is kicking to the curb this year. You already wrote him off. i actually hope your wrong. I still see him as being able to have "his moment" on the stage and kick starting the campaign. I sort of like him. Bush would do good to take him as his running mate, but Bush has to get down to business this week or his run is over.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 21, 2015 8:48:34 GMT -5
Looks like Bush held steady at 9% in the latest poll, but is dropping behind due to Carly and Cruz gaining steam.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2015 8:56:53 GMT -5
Didn't Kasich say he wants a ban on abortion for a fetus with genetic abnormalities..
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