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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2015 20:07:20 GMT -5
.. he will stay right where he is. ... djAdvocate I was hoping you would clarify a little where his support is right now. What percentage of who are supporting him? Are we talking 10% of likely GOP primary voters which is roughly what percent of Republicans which is what percent of adult Americans? Early primary state voters? Give us a larger context of the number if you would. somewhere between 10-15%. but when i said "where he is" i meant "a distant second, max, to Bush". but as you know, in winner take all primaries, if you have (17) people running, 6% is average. 12% is really good. 18% might be enough to win. Trump is in the second category. Bush is in the third.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2015 20:09:11 GMT -5
Trump is an interesting test case for whether an offensive blowhard can make it in the GOP. we'll see. How could there be any doubt? They LOVE Rush! i hope everyone believes me when i say this, but i am really unhappy to have to agree with you, here.
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 2, 2015 20:13:42 GMT -5
... somewhere between 10-15%. ... Of who? What is the pool that is being sampled from which he has 10-15% support?
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Post by tallguy on Jul 2, 2015 20:19:08 GMT -5
How could there be any doubt? They LOVE Rush! i hope everyone believes me when i say this, but i am really unhappy to have to agree with you, here. Yeah, fine. As long as you're really happy to agree with me everywhere else, I can live with it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2015 20:21:07 GMT -5
... somewhere between 10-15%. ... Of who? What is the pool that is being sampled from which he has 10-15% support? the last two major national polls. if i wasn't clear, this is JUST among primary voters. i have to go or i would pull a link for you. if you use the Google Machine and type in "RCP Republican Nomination 2016" (without the quotes), you will find them.
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 2, 2015 20:55:54 GMT -5
Of who? What is the pool that is being sampled from which he has 10-15% support? the last two major national polls. if i wasn't clear, this is JUST among primary voters. i have to go or i would pull a link for you. if you use the Google Machine and type in "RCP Republican Nomination 2016" (without the quotes), you will find them. Okay, so the CNN/ORC gave Trump 12% support of people in the national pool who self identified as Republican or independent leaning Republican which was about 40% of the total polled. So 12% of 40% is about 5-6% of Americans supporting Trump in that poll. Fox poll is similar in methodology and results. Sounds reasonable that he has that support. The NBC/WSJ poll is likely GOP primary voters and gives Trump 1% but forces those polled to name Trump after giving a list which does not include him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 15, 2015 1:24:44 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 15, 2015 7:52:56 GMT -5
Bush needs ALL the GOP voters including those on the TEA party fringe, if he hopes to win.
Or do you think Bush will try to make up for lost TEA party voters (who may stay home in droves) by courting the Hispanic and female voters?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 15, 2015 9:51:59 GMT -5
Bush needs ALL the GOP voters including those on the TEA party fringe, if he hopes to win. Or do you think Bush will try to make up for lost TEA party voters (who may stay home in droves) by courting the Hispanic and female voters? i think he needs to cross over. the demographics are wildly against him in 2016. he needs to appeal to working class people, like Reagan did, and given his patrician roots, i don't really see how he does that. also, he is kindof a buffoon. he has already made a few visible blunders.
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 15, 2015 12:29:56 GMT -5
Bush needs ALL the GOP voters including those on the TEA party fringe, if he hopes to win. Or do you think Bush will try to make up for lost TEA party voters (who may stay home in droves) by courting the Hispanic and female voters? i think he needs to cross over. the demographics are wildly against him in 2016. he needs to appeal to working class people, like Reagan did, and given his patrician roots, i don't really see how he does that. also, he is kindof a buffoon. he has already made a few visible blunders. Well, if you're the right kind of buffoon, that can be charming. Think of Joe Biden and Gerald Ford, both kind of goofy, but in a doofy Golden Retriever kind of way. Not the Trump "watch me open my mouth and see what outrageousness flies out" way. I'm not sure how he appeals to the working class. He could make a middle class program something he runs on, but he has to be careful not to alienate his base at the same time.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 15, 2015 12:57:34 GMT -5
i think he needs to cross over. the demographics are wildly against him in 2016. he needs to appeal to working class people, like Reagan did, and given his patrician roots, i don't really see how he does that. also, he is kindof a buffoon. he has already made a few visible blunders. Well, if you're the right kind of buffoon, that can be charming. Think of Joe Biden and Gerald Ford, both kind of goofy, but in a doofy Golden Retriever kind of way. Not the Trump "watch me open my mouth and see what outrageousness flies out" way. I'm not sure how he appeals to the working class. He could make a middle class program something he runs on, but he has to be careful not to alienate his base at the same time. he's going to have to work really hard to appeal to the working class. having spent his entire career sucking up to the doner class, i don't give him much of a chance of winning hearts.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 22, 2015 12:49:19 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 22, 2015 17:14:10 GMT -5
this has been the case for three months. it is also meaningless. first of all, Bush has to win the nomination. secondly, he is not being judged on his views at this point in state polls. neither is Clinton. but let's be totally clear. Clinton is not going to sweep 50 states. neither is Bush. this country is far too divided.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 22, 2015 17:15:14 GMT -5
Too many scandals and women aren't particularly endeared to her = lost election won't matter one stitch unless the GOP can field a better candidate.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 22, 2015 20:23:24 GMT -5
Too many scandals and women aren't particularly endeared to her = lost election won't matter one stitch unless the GOP can field a better candidate. Clinton will not take Ohio Virginia Florida or Texas in the actual election. Throw in Colorado, and it is a done deal for Bush
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 23, 2015 0:09:45 GMT -5
won't matter one stitch unless the GOP can field a better candidate. Clinton will not take Ohio Virginia Florida or Texas in the actual election. Throw in Colorado, and it is a done deal for Bush i think it is way to early to conclude who will win what state right now, but i can say this: Clinton is leading or tied in three of the four states you have listed. but then again, you were sure Romney would win, as well.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 23, 2015 7:46:54 GMT -5
Clinton will not take Ohio Virginia Florida or Texas in the actual election. Throw in Colorado, and it is a done deal for Bush i think it is way to early to conclude who will win what state right now, but i can say this: Clinton is leading or tied in three of the four states you have listed. but then again, you were sure Romney would win, as well. Very true, I also called Bush II's victory for the second term.
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Post by tallguy on Jul 23, 2015 8:01:01 GMT -5
So you're right half the time? That is the same probability as a coin flip, isn't it?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 23, 2015 8:41:50 GMT -5
i think it is way to early to conclude who will win what state right now, but i can say this: Clinton is leading or tied in three of the four states you have listed. but then again, you were sure Romney would win, as well. Very true, I also called Bush II's victory for the second term. i was pretty sure he would win, as well. i just didn't like that idea enough to admit it publicly at the time. edit: that was the election that taught me not to question the polls. i have not forgotten it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 24, 2015 11:08:37 GMT -5
i am adjusting my first and second tier based on polling: Trump Bush Walker Rubio Carson Huckabee Paul Cruz so, TRUMP, Bush and Walker are now first tier. Rubio has fallen off the first tier into the second tier, but i still think he is a viable candidate. he occupies that tier with Carson Huckabee, Paul and Cruz. everyone else is third tier, and as of today, i don't think they stand much of a chance. if i were to guess, i would say that Trump would crash and burn, and leave Walker and Bush to duke it out. in fact, i think it quite unlikely that he will continue to captivate the attention of voters for long. there is only so much candor your average politico can stand. of course, it is possible for someone to pop up from the 2nd tier and mess things up, as well. but i really don't see any more dark horses out there at this juncture. i think this is the field we are going to get, and i think it is going to be a real slog for these guys to hit 20% (nobody has done it yet, consistently). edit: NOTE: i added one or two to the second tier because they are polling SO EVENLY. Carson and Huck are holding ground, everyone else in the second tier is trending down. on the first tier, Bush is quite stable but slightly down, Trump and Walker are both rising.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 26, 2015 14:58:23 GMT -5
i think the following candidacies are dead, barring any unforseen and dramatic changes:
Christie Kasich Perry Santorum Jindal Fiorina Graham
my reasoning is manifold on WHY. a third of these candidates have already been tested, and they failed. if they fail again, we won't see them in presidential politics any more. Christie and Graham don't have enough appeal within the party to make it, imo. Jindal and Fiorina are fighting against obscurity in the huge field. i think they should try running again when there are less than a dozen candidates trying to get in. but i also think that they are really flawed candidates. i could explain why, if anyone is interested.
in any case, i consider the following list "viable", and most of these folks will contend:
Trump Bush Walker Rubio Huckabee Carson Cruz Paul
their numbers are solid enough to make them contenders, but Paul and Carson need to do a LOT better with fundraising.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2015 16:16:47 GMT -5
if anything, i think Bush's position is actually STRONGER right now than it was before. let me lay out my THREE reasons why:
1) Donald Trump. the fanboys love him, but he is a shi-tay candidate. in HTH polls -vs- Clinton he is running DEAD LAST among candidates, a full 16% loser to HRH Hillary. 2) Ron Paul. he is doing better than all of the other candidates against Clinton, but he is running SEVENTH right now, and having trouble raising funds. i think he would make a marvelous VP choice. that might actually make a winning ticket. 3) Despite the weirdness of this primary so far, Bush has never polled less than 10% the entire time, despite his late entry, and his pretty quiet campaign. he is a VERY strong candidate, imo. and he has the smarts to let these other guys beat each other up for attention.
i don't like candidate Bush, but he is playing this game pretty smart so far, and he has the votes and stamina to last it, imo.
provided he doesn't do or say something utterly foolish.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 27, 2015 16:35:28 GMT -5
dj, I do not disagree with your observations of the last few posts, other than maybe, Kasich. Gotta give him a chance. If he gets some air time, he might move up. I would like to see him as the VP nominee.
Rubio Santorum Cruz Huckabee Cannot leave the race fast enough for me.
Trump is making things fun, if nothing else. He is a non politician, billionaire who can say whatever he thinks, and cuts through the bs. I almost would like to see him win just to go one on one with Clinton on the debates. It would almost be worth it. Not quite, though!
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2015 16:42:33 GMT -5
dj, I do not disagree with your observations of the last few posts, other than maybe, Kasich. Gotta give him a chance. If he gets some air time, he might move up. I would like to see him as the VP nominee. Rubio Santorum Cruz Huckabee Cannot leave the race fast enough for me. Trump is making things fun, if nothing else. He is a non politician, billionaire who can say whatever he thinks, and cuts through the bs. I almost would like to see him win just to go one on one with Clinton on the debates. It would almost be worth it. Not quite, though! Huck just made a huge mistake. he is finished, imo. i am not sure how well Trump will debate. everyone seems super excited by it, but i really don't think he will do very well. my reasoning is that he is like Carson and other 2nd tier candidates. he really doesn't know how to play the game. and that is both a charming feature of his personality AND a curse to him. he is going to say some shit that pisses EVERYONE off. and when i say EVERYONE, i mean EVERYONE.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 27, 2015 16:45:27 GMT -5
dj, I do not disagree with your observations of the last few posts, other than maybe, Kasich. Gotta give him a chance. If he gets some air time, he might move up. I would like to see him as the VP nominee. Rubio Santorum Cruz Huckabee Cannot leave the race fast enough for me. Trump is making things fun, if nothing else. He is a non politician, billionaire who can say whatever he thinks, and cuts through the bs. I almost would like to see him win just to go one on one with Clinton on the debates. It would almost be worth it. Not quite, though! Huck just made a huge mistake. he is finished, imo. i am not sure how well Trump will debate. everyone seems super excited by it, but i really don't think he will do very well. my reasoning is that he is like Carson and other 2nd tier candidates. he really doesn't know how to play the game. and that is both a charming feature of his personality AND a curse to him. he is going to say some shit that pisses EVERYONE off. and when i say EVERYONE, i mean EVERYONE. BUT, IT WILL BE SO MUCH FUN TO WATCH! Huck? You referring to the Iran statement?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2015 16:49:35 GMT -5
Huck just made a huge mistake. he is finished, imo. i am not sure how well Trump will debate. everyone seems super excited by it, but i really don't think he will do very well. my reasoning is that he is like Carson and other 2nd tier candidates. he really doesn't know how to play the game. and that is both a charming feature of his personality AND a curse to him. he is going to say some shit that pisses EVERYONE off. and when i say EVERYONE, i mean EVERYONE. BUT, IT WILL BE SO MUCH FUN TO WATCH! Huck? You referring to the Iran statement? precisely. the comparison was not good, and speeks very ill of him. VERY ill. and, of course, it is not the first time, which is why it is going to be a problem for him. PS- i am stoked to WATCH it. but i have a huge interest in abnormal psychology, as well.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2015 16:52:55 GMT -5
again, i think Bush is very well positioned, here. he is going to "make the cut" on all of the debates. he has more money than God. he has an incredible campaign structure. he has two generations to rely on for campaign advice and strategy. he comes off as professional, and pretty polished, really. he has admin experience from Florida. i think he is a very serious candidate, and i think the rest of the field is going to have a tough time with him, with the exception of Walker, who is similarly credentialed.
i think that if it comes down to Walker-Bush, Bush has a way better record in his state than Walker. WAY better. But Walker has made more waves, which will excite the base more. it will be an interesting battle. much more than Bush/Trump, imo.
edit: running Trump would be a huge mistake for the GOP, imo. his position on immigration is so unvarnished and obnoxious that it won't pass muster with any but maybe 10% of the immigrant population in the US, and their descendents. he will get WHALLOPED if he makes it to the GE.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 28, 2015 11:17:58 GMT -5
again, i think Bush is very well positioned, here. he is going to "make the cut" on all of the debates. he has more money than God. he has an incredible campaign structure. he has two generations to rely on for campaign advice and strategy. he comes off as professional, and pretty polished, really. he has admin experience from Florida. i think he is a very serious candidate, and i think the rest of the field is going to have a tough time with him, with the exception of Walker, who is similarly credentialed. i think that if it comes down to Walker-Bush, Bush has a way better record in his state than Walker. WAY better. But Walker has made more waves, which will excite the base more. it will be an interesting battle. much more than Bush/Trump, imo. edit: running Trump would be a huge mistake for the GOP, imo. his position on immigration is so unvarnished and obnoxious that it won't pass muster with any but maybe 10% of the immigrant population in the US, and their descendents. he will get WHALLOPED if he makes it to the GE. The two generation fallback is a little weak. Bush senior's people are getting very long in the tooth and are a non entity in politics, imo.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 28, 2015 11:31:03 GMT -5
again, i think Bush is very well positioned, here. he is going to "make the cut" on all of the debates. he has more money than God. he has an incredible campaign structure. he has two generations to rely on for campaign advice and strategy. he comes off as professional, and pretty polished, really. he has admin experience from Florida. i think he is a very serious candidate, and i think the rest of the field is going to have a tough time with him, with the exception of Walker, who is similarly credentialed. i think that if it comes down to Walker-Bush, Bush has a way better record in his state than Walker. WAY better. But Walker has made more waves, which will excite the base more. it will be an interesting battle. much more than Bush/Trump, imo. edit: running Trump would be a huge mistake for the GOP, imo. his position on immigration is so unvarnished and obnoxious that it won't pass muster with any but maybe 10% of the immigrant population in the US, and their descendents. he will get WHALLOPED if he makes it to the GE. The two generation fallback is a little weak. Bush senior's people are getting very long in the tooth and are a non entity in politics, imo. good point.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2015 17:18:08 GMT -5
update:
there are four new polls out in the last week. all four of them have Trump up by more than 10%, and with the largest lead of any candidate on the GOP side. i think it is time to take him seriously. he is going to go the distance, imo. he is going to ballot in 50 states. and he could possibly win the nomination.
so, the top tier is now Trump, Bush, and Walker.
those third tier candidates?
Christie Kasich Perry Santorum Jindal Fiorina Graham
i think that all except maybe Kasich and Christie are finished. i just don't see them as having enough momentum and support to win anything.
the interesting part is what i was calling the "second tier":
Huckabee Carson Cruz Rubio
of these four, only Huck is showing any life. i think Rubio is sunk, and i really can't fathom why. he polls quite well -vs- Clinton. his positions on immigration are nuanced and evolved. he is a good speaker. and, of course, he has ties to a very large and growing demographic. but in addition, this "second tier" is so far back that they are outside of polling error from Trump and Bush. if you think of it that way, we REALLY have Trump and Bush as top tier, and Walker as second tier, and everyone else is fighting for scraps. i would put Bush in the same category, except he has never polled less than 10%, and he is running 12-13% now, so it is not really him that is losing support to Trump, but everyone else.
this race is not down to Trump and Bush, YET. we can review this again in a month or two and see how it stands, then. but Trump has been amazingly good and quite surprising, given his mad, off the cuff, almost Bachmanesque comments.
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