djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2015 23:12:59 GMT -5
i think this poll is extremely interesting: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.htmlFL is a good model for the US as a whole, and if we can judge on the basis of this ONE POLL, what we see is that Trump is sucking the life out of every other candidate OTHER THAN BUSH. so, sure- he leads by 1%, but Bush only dropped 1% in the last SIX WEEKS. in other words, Trump has bounced 20% on the backs of candidates like Rubio, effectively taking them out of contention. a case could be made for Trump being a huge gift for Bush. unless, of course....he WINS.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 10, 2015 1:32:27 GMT -5
note of interest:
the DISAPPROVAL numbers for the ACA have fallen to a three year low, and are just a small fraction of a percent above a record low of 47%. approval is also falling, so more people are becoming uncertain about the law for some reason. the reason why i added it to this thread is that i can't remember if this issue was discussed in the debate or not, and i would like someone to comment if it was.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Aug 12, 2015 7:36:00 GMT -5
note of interest: the DISAPPROVAL numbers for the ACA have fallen to a three year low, and are just a small fraction of a percent above a record low of 47%. approval is also falling, so more people are becoming uncertain about the law for some reason. the reason why i added it to this thread is that i can't remember if this issue was discussed in the debate or not, and i would like someone to comment if it was. That's because though the PPACA is the law of the land, it has never been fully enforced. That is because Obama knows that the day it is, it will complete its inevitable implosion- and they'll blame the whole thing on Republican "sabotage". In reality, the PPACA is a sabotage of what's left of the private market in healthcare- it is designed to destroy our current system so it can be replaced with nationalized, one-size-fits-all, government-run healthcare. But you don't have to take my word for it:
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Aug 12, 2015 7:42:48 GMT -5
To get back to the point, the numbers don't work for Bush. He's not even registering in Iowa- so that's gone. Rand Paul is leading in New Hampshire- not surprisingly as the only real small government candidate in the race. And then it's Trump and Walker everywhere else with Bush not in the top 5 in most states, and not in even in the top 10 in the rest. If team Bush doesn't take Trump out by SC, Bush will lose this race. Trump may not (probably will not) win the primary, but it isn't going to be Bush if something doesn't happen quick to energize the Bush candidacy. I think the GOP elites / Bush and the media- including Fox- have completely underestimated the anger of the GOP base for the total betrayal on amnesty, obamacare, CROmnibus, and even the damn export import bank. The most recent poll I saw is that 1/3rd of the base is ready to bolt to a third party. I left after Bush- a lot of people left with me.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2015 7:44:14 GMT -5
Kasich has really risen in the polls. He and Florina are in the top ten group.
Bush is still stumbling in his responses to the questions.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 12, 2015 9:55:49 GMT -5
note of interest: the DISAPPROVAL numbers for the ACA have fallen to a three year low, and are just a small fraction of a percent above a record low of 47%. approval is also falling, so more people are becoming uncertain about the law for some reason. the reason why i added it to this thread is that i can't remember if this issue was discussed in the debate or not, and i would like someone to comment if it was. That's because though the PPACA is the law of the land, it has never been fully enforced. That is because Obama knows that the day it is, it will complete its inevitable implosion- and they'll blame the whole thing on Republican "sabotage". In reality, the PPACA is a sabotage of what's left of the private market in healthcare- it is designed to destroy our current system so it can be replaced with nationalized, one-size-fits-all, government-run healthcare. not following you. how is the plummeting disapproval explained by the "lack of implementation"?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 12, 2015 9:57:37 GMT -5
Kasich has really risen in the polls. He and Florina are in the top ten group. Bush is still stumbling in his responses to the questions. he has turned out to be far less capable than most people imagined. but unlike you and Paul, i think this is BAD for the GOP.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2015 11:58:37 GMT -5
Kasich has really risen in the polls. He and Florina are in the top ten group. Bush is still stumbling in his responses to the questions. he has turned out to be far less capable than most people imagined. but unlike you and Paul, i think this is BAD for the GOP. You are talking about Bush. Paul never liked Bush. I back Bush, but am frustrated by his mis-speaks.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 17, 2015 12:43:18 GMT -5
ok, that first debate mixed things up a bit.
Trump Bush Walker
still the top three, but Bush and Walker didn't do themselves any good in that debate, and Trump didn't do himself any harm. he is now far and away the front runner, and it is hard to see right now how anyone is going to bring him down other than The Donald.
Carson Cruz Rubio Huckabee Fiorina Paul Kasich Christie
Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Kasich and Christie all got a boost from the debate. Paul and Huck didn't stand out.
Perry Santorum Jindal Graham
i think these four are finished. they should withdraw and let the rest of the field have a bit more breathing room. they have lost ground since the debate, which was their only real chance of moving up, imo. they were third tier, and now, i don't even thing they are worth watching.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 17, 2015 12:51:14 GMT -5
note of interest: the DISAPPROVAL numbers for the ACA have fallen to a three year low, and are just a small fraction of a percent above a record low of 47%. approval is also falling, so more people are becoming uncertain about the law for some reason. the reason why i added it to this thread is that i can't remember if this issue was discussed in the debate or not, and i would like someone to comment if it was. and again, the president's numbers follow..... Obama's disapproval numbers are within a fraction of a percent of a two year low. his approval number is about 1.5% below a 2 year high. Obama's approval numbers are significantly higher than they were in 2014. they are, however, about the same as they were in 2010, and about 4% lower than 2012. in other words, it is hard to see this approval level as a positive for Democrats, but it should not be a huge negative, either.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 19, 2015 12:21:13 GMT -5
i think Christie is finished. his main selling point is being brash, but he is being totally outflanked on that score by Trump. i doubt he will pull out any time soon, but i don't really think he has a chance. that leaves TEN:
Trump Bush Carson
Walker Cruz Rubio Huckabee Fiorina Paul Kasich
note: i moved Walker to second tier. he is polling very poorly- worse than Carson- and the trend for him is terrible.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 24, 2015 16:23:29 GMT -5
This has to be a wee bit awkward for Jeb if true. Jeb Bush’s Super PAC Has a Bad Photoshop MomentJeb Bush has fallen victim to what appears to be the first Photoshop fail of the 2016 campaign. A super PAC supporting the former Florida Governor’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination released its first mailer to Iowa voters this week. Right to Rise USA tweeted a picture of the inaugural mailing, which appears to show Bush posing in front of a bridge in what appears to be Cedar Rapids, the second largest city in Iowa. But a closer look at the photo seems to show that Bush was actually superimposed on a a stock image of the city, while his left hand appears to belong to someone else. link
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 24, 2015 16:59:51 GMT -5
note of interest: the DISAPPROVAL numbers for the ACA have fallen to a three year low, and are just a small fraction of a percent above a record low of 47%. approval is also falling, so more people are becoming uncertain about the law for some reason. the reason why i added it to this thread is that i can't remember if this issue was discussed in the debate or not, and i would like someone to comment if it was. and again, the president's numbers follow..... Obama's disapproval numbers are within a fraction of a percent of a two year low. his approval number is about 1.5% below a 2 year high. Obama's approval numbers are significantly higher than they were in 2014. they are, however, about the same as they were in 2010, and about 4% lower than 2012. in other words, it is hard to see this approval level as a positive for Democrats, but it should not be a huge negative, either. update again: the numbers on presidential approval and the ACA are down 3% since the last time i posted on this. good for the GOP.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 25, 2015 10:25:02 GMT -5
he is having a really difficult time of it. again, reminds me of Romney. but worse, probably?
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2015 13:30:08 GMT -5
this is an amazing primary, so far:
Trump
what else can be said? he is not only the front runner, but by such a wide margin that he is the ONLY one on the first tier at this point.
Carson Bush
that's right. this is the second tier. two whole candidates. Bush is doing way more poorly than i expected, but still in contention.
Rubio Cruz Walker Fiorina Kasich Huckabee Paul
four candidates have lost 5% each while Trump gained 20%: Bush, Walker, Rubio, and Paul. it stands to reason that these candidates would benefit most if Trump stumbles.
Christie
and because of that fact, i see no way that Christie can get back in this race, or any of the other candidates. there are 10 that might compete.
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Aug 29, 2015 13:45:16 GMT -5
The problem with Jeb is that he comes across as mild, soft and as a part of the political establishment. And he is. Show some fire...if he has it in him?
While I despised his brother, I have nothing but the deepest respect for his father.
These are still early days
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Post by kent on Aug 29, 2015 13:50:13 GMT -5
I heard someone say Trump is a "protest" candidate because people are SO sick of the way things are and have been. I can't discount that possibility.
Bush just doesn't impress me.
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Aug 29, 2015 13:53:20 GMT -5
I'm with you Kent.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2015 15:27:33 GMT -5
I heard someone say Trump is a "protest" candidate because people are SO sick of the way things are and have been. I can't discount that possibility.
Bush just doesn't impress me. protest candidates generally don't fare well in the general election.
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Post by zibazinski on Aug 29, 2015 16:50:26 GMT -5
He won't carry Florida. We think he's an ass.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2015 17:02:12 GMT -5
He won't carry Florida. We think he's an ass. as of right now, he would. so something has to change.
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Post by zibazinski on Aug 29, 2015 17:06:44 GMT -5
Voting for Biden. Someone needs to put a firecracker under his ass. Or as my daddy would say, " shit or get off the pot."
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2015 17:14:39 GMT -5
Voting for Biden. Someone needs to put a firecracker under his ass. Or as my daddy would say, " shit or get off the pot." i think he is trying to figure out if his heart is in it. i think he will find out that it IS.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Aug 29, 2015 17:15:53 GMT -5
I wonder if my first and last presidential votes will be dem?
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Post by mmhmm on Aug 29, 2015 17:43:26 GMT -5
I wonder if my first and last presidential votes will be dem? I think, zib, you're like a lot of us here. It's not about the party. It's about the candidate. While one can never be sure with any politician, we all must do our research and base our votes on our findings. At least, that's how I do it.
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 29, 2015 18:01:25 GMT -5
I wonder if my first and last presidential votes will be dem? Bite your tongue. You will be around for at least the 2020 election and more.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Aug 29, 2015 18:31:33 GMT -5
Maybe.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 29, 2015 18:33:39 GMT -5
Whatever happened to Paul?
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2015 18:39:32 GMT -5
Whatever happened to Paul? he was doing respectably until Trump got in the race. now he is BARELY contending. he is running 10th in a field of 17.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 29, 2015 18:41:45 GMT -5
Whatever happened to Paul? he was doing respectably until Trump got in the race. now he is BARELY contending. he is running 10th in a field of 17. I knew that, just wondered how easily he got manhandled.
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