KASH IS KING

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 3, 2016 1:16:47 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Watch out for 2013?

LOL... When the world was going to "end" in 2012 and we were all having fun poking the bear, I kept saying, "watch out for 2013 though." Watch out meant that the trends that appeared in 2013 would lead to a stall in 2014.. All you have to do is look at the chart of earnings to see that is exactly what happened.

Since we know the run up in earnings from a low in 2009 was slow and steady US growth mixed with BRICS, and we know the US is still growing slow and steady, we know that as of 2013 major issues surfaced in the BRICS. Those issues have built over the last two years, and now they are front and center.

Now, had Putin not pulled his BS maybe by the end of next year and into 2018 we could be talking about a world wide recovery moving onto the next phase of our economic evolution. However, Putin did pull his BS and as life always is, we will have to get through a setback first.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Wish I could find the conversation and I were having about rates going negative.. I'm sure it was in 2014 sometime, just too lazy to look right now...

Even Warren Buffett is confused by negative interest rates

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett may be known as the Oracle of Omaha, but even he never foresaw negative interest rates—nor does he quite know what they will end up meaning to the global economy and markets.

“You can read Adam Smith, you can read [John Maynard] Keynes, you can read anybody and you can’t find a word to my knowledge on prolonged zero interest rates—that is a phenomenon nobody dreamed would ever happen,”

And then... Holy cow!

See how bonds with negative yields are taking over the market in one chart

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 2, 2016 14:32:40 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

As for housing, I wish that it was simply the Silicon Valley thing that was the problem

The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted

1. A major financial website recently ran a guide to the best cities to “flip” houses in. (I don’t want to encourage the behavior.) Real estate speculation via house “flipping” was another early sign of trouble ahead.

2. A few days later, news arrived that home prices in the Bronx had shot up by an astonishing 30% in the first quarter. Crazy advances in home values were, a decade ago, also a signal of trouble ahead.

3. Ads, then as now, were running on TV for “quick mortgages.”

All of these signals raise a serious question: Are we getting closer to another housing meltdown that will once again damage your investment portfolio?

.......

We’re just about back to the zero-percent down payment

....

Buyers are stretching their budgets to purchase homes

.....

The upshot: We’re a lot closer to 2007 than you might think

.....

Home prices are rising a lot relative to income

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Washington is not helping

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 12, 2016 23:46:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Here's that word again... IMF Warns of Global Stagnation as Growth Outlook Cut Again

So, the next thing is going back and seeing that every year since 2011, the IMF and others have lowered global growth. Which of course can only lead to the conclusion that since the crisis of '08 we have been in Stagnation(or as has been said around here since 2010, THE IS NO BOOM COMING!!) Since we love to give names to things, the Great Recession will have caused the Great Stagnation. Iconic (maybe a coincidence) that the Great Stagnation will end with a BOOM!?! Stay

How to Pull the World Economy Out of Its Rut Larry Summers warns of “secular stagnation,” a term from the Great Depression

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 24, 2016 17:48:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The snapback of Q2 that has been the trend of the last half decade? Without oil production?? Hard to imagine that. Stay

Connecting these two graphs points out exactly why there isn't much in the tank for Q2 GDP.. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index tracks economic data beats and misses

[bimetalaupt]

Abilene, Texas

PROS: Robust economy, cost of living 17% below national average, average home price $142,000 (national average: $209,000). Low rate of violent crime. High number of doctors per capita, high rank on Milken Institute of best cities for successful aging. Warm climate.











CON: Not very walkable. NOTED: Average tax climate and air quality. Population 120,000. On list last year. TRIVIA: Founded as a railroad shipping town for cattle



Why is Abilene the place I retired in at 62?

[flow5]

Nov is the only speculative time to sell commodities and buy bonds in 2016.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 18, 2016 8:38:41 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Abilene, Texas

PROS: Robust economy, cost of living 17% below national average, average home price $142,000 (national average: $209,000). Low rate of violent crime. High number of doctors per capita, high rank on Milken Institute of best cities for successful aging. Warm climate.


CON: Not very walkable. NOTED: Average tax climate and air quality. Population 120,000. On list last year. TRIVIA: Founded as a railroad shipping town for cattle



Why is Abilene the place I retired in at 62?

Rhetorical?

Throw in some WtE and MBR water systems, plus some passive communities based on seven acre buildings(underground parking, mini solar farms on roof, geothermal heat and cooling) surrounding a central mixed use hub easy to walk to....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The what in the what now? And housing keeps plugging along..

U.S. New-Home Sales Surge to Highest Level in Eight Years

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, Earnings fall at fastest rate since the Great Recession, while U.S. companies dial back spending despite upswing(?). Which means that GDP tracking: US data not positive for Q2. Especially because even though 50 a barrel is way up from the lows, it's still the price that layoffs really started to kick into gear, I.e. Shell to cut 2,200 more jobs in reaction to low oil prices. To top it off, one out of two ain't bad, Fitch.. US Forecasts Cut but Near-term Emerging Market Growth Pressure Eases.

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Bayesian.....

It’s really hard not to be a seller in real estate right now

“No one has ever accused me of not being a realist,” Sam Zell told CNBC...

....Back in 2007, he once again proved his sense of market timing. As the commercial property bubble was already teetering, he sold Equity Office Properties Trust to Blackstone for $23 billion, not including $16 billion in debt. Then prices crashed, and commercial property defaults hit the banks. As the dust was settling at the end of the Great Recession, he went on a shopping spree.

Now he’s selling again, unloading multifamily properties at peak prices on a massive scale just when a multi-year construction boom is flooding the market with new supply.

Equity portfolio does not the economy make... Chicago PMI fell 1.1 points to 49.3 in May, MNI Indicators reported. That’s the lowest level since February and the sixth time in 12 months it’s been below the 50 level marking contraction.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Strength.... Fed Beige Book sounds subdued about economy

Weakness..... European Banks Feel the Pinch From Draghi’s Negative Rates........ Record $10 trillion in global debt with negative yields

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Desperate' ECB risks destroying European project with negative rates, warns Deutsche Bank

Germany reaches negative rate milestone

The average yield on German government bonds has fallen below zero for the first time as the phenomenon of negative interest rates intensifies across global financial markets.

So-called “umlaufrendite”, the average rate across outstanding bonds published once a day by Germany’s Bundesbank, hit a new low of minus 0.02 per cent on Monday, surpassing its previous low of zero reached in April.

Another one joins the party.. In a surprise, Bank of Korea cuts rate to all-time low

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I'm pretty sure that this was what has been discussed previously on this thread...

-Go-slower approach prevails as Fed leaves interest rates unchanged
-Yellen Says Forces Holding Down Rates May Be Long Lasting

It's a good thing that housing and consumer spending is still hanging in there, or else the US would be heading into a recession. It's to bad that the FED didn't raise rates in 2012-2013 when the housing market came back to life. Rates would still be low enough to act as a stimulus for real estate, but prices would have been held in check...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Should be an interesting summer in the credit/currency markets.

-Too-Easy Money Is Making It Too Hard to Gauge Markets, BIS Says
-China Weakens Yuan Fixing by Most Since August as Dollar Surges

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's Einstein's definition of insanity I tells ya..

Italy’s perfect storm could topple the EU

Approaching eight years since the financial crisis, the European banking system remains its vulnerable underbelly and the economies and banking systems of the southern Europeans remain fragile....

...The Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, tried to wriggle around the prohibition by strong-arming Italy’s banks and insurers to finance a fund to acquire bank bad debts and provide capital to struggling banks.

The Atlante fund raised €4.25 billion (about $6.4bn) earlier this year, but in a system with about €360bn ($540bn) of non-performing loans — more than 18 per cent of all loans — that’s obviously nowhere close to being sufficient to stabilise its system.....

....The aggressively anti-establishment Five Star Movement’s success in Italy’s local elections this month — it won the mayoral contests for Rome and Turin as well as a host of less high-profile cities and towns — is a threat to Renzi and his Democratic Party and to the EU. He is trying to exploit the EU’s fear that Brexit might encourage others and create momentum for the disintegration of Europe and the end of the European Project....

....When four small Italian banks collapsed last year it wasn’t only shareholders who lost their investments but bondholders, including the retail bondholders common within the Italian system.

In an economy — the EU’s third-largest — that has shrivelled since the crisis, with a decimated industrial base and high unemployment rates, it that were to recur but on a far larger and broader scale, the prospect of Italy revolting and emulating the UK couldn’t be disregarded, which is the leverage Renzi is opportunistically/desperately seeking to exploit.

To put into perspective the cliff the interconnected financial system is on:

"Animal Spirits‎: How Human Psychology Drives...."

P.79

"But when the Fed wants to reduce rates, as it does in a recession, there is a limit to the usefulness of open market operations. Why?‎ Because in practical term it cannot drive the short term rate below zero. Obviously no one would want to hold Treasury bills if their interest rates went more than a tiny amnount below zero. They could hold cash instead. As a result, once open market operations have pushed safe short-term interest rates to zero, they have no further bite. Further purchases of short-term Treasury bonds cannot reduce the rate of interest further.
 When these rates have fallen to zero, conventional monetary policy has reached the limits of its effectiveness.‎"

______________________________________________

So, in other words, even in 2008 when this book was about to be published the idea of negative rates was insanity. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Bonds shatter records, the latest loonie poll, and stock picks for both gold bugs and dividend lovers

almost $10-trillion (U.S.) of developed market sovereign bonds now have negative yields.

-The downfall of an institution
-Matteo Renzi is right — Europe has a banking sector problem

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but, but... trillions of euros have already been pumped into the EU banking system..

EU Banks Need $166 Billion, Deutsche Bank Economist Tells Welt

And then... Global economy "grim" and G20 must step up to fix it - China

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

How the pieces are falling into place for another global financial crisis

Consider European banks, which hold around 1.2 trillion euro worth of problem loans. Italian banks alone have an estimated €360 billion of non-performing loans (“NPLs”), reflecting around 20% of Italy’s GDP. Italian NPLs represent around 15% of all its banking system’s loans, compared to around 5% in the U.S. during in the 2008-09 banking crisis. The problem is not a real estate bubble, but low growth, disinflation or deflation, and lack of competitiveness — exacerbated by an overvalued exchange rate.


Italian banks’ access to new equity is now limited. Atlante, the government established vehicle, was inadequately funded (at €4-6 billion) for the task of recapitalizing problem banks. It was also conceptually flawed, raising money from stronger banks, insurers, and institutions to support weaker entities — in effect spreading contagion.

And then; Asian Defaults Are Just Getting Started.. AKA.. The Asian Crisis!

Oh, and I'm certain at this point that negative interest rates are fraud. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Deutsche Bank profit tumbles 98%

Deutsche Bank has been hit harder than most. The Frankfurt-based bank is cutting costs and clients and trying to satisfy new, more-stringent capital requirements over the next three years. Its turnaround strategy has eaten into trading and investment-banking revenue, and investors’ concerns about the adequacy of its capital cushion have persisted.

The bank also has been trying to settle regulatory investigations expected to result in big fines, another uncertainty for investors.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 25, 2016 23:47:24 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I'm certain at this point that negative interest rates are fraud. Stay

Japan bank SMFG's Q1 profit skids 31 pct, negative interest rates weigh

Japan's third-largest lender, said net profit fell 31 percent in the first-quarter, with returns on loans and bond investments hurt by the negative interest rate policy adopted by the country's central bank.

But hey, print some more fucking money to give to the banks so they can keep buying these NIRP bonds, further screwing the banking system and the economy.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 31, 2016 9:40:38 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Bayesian.....

Mar 24, 2016 17:48:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The snapback of Q2 that has been the trend of the last half decade? Without oil production?? Hard to imagine that. Stay

Jun 16, 2016 10:43:21 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

It's a good thing that housing and consumer spending is still hanging in there, or else the US would be heading into a recession. It's to bad that the FED didn't raise rates in 2012-2013 when the housing market came back to life. Rates would still be low enough to act as a stimulus for real estate, but prices would have been held in check...

Second-Quarter U.S. GDP Forecasts Tumble on New Advance Data

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Next quarters earning are looking like the make or break moment for the market this year. DOW 20k?? USA GDP this year roughly 1%. Anemic growth across the globe, but earning got bad enough last year that they leveled off?? Guess will see. Earnings beats are concealing bad results

As an "interesting" side note. Solar installation is at an all time high, along with subsidies, and the sector is essentially bankrupt. We can see from the 1.3% GDP this year that traditional energy being in a slump creates a hole current renewables don't fill; and now the bankrupt solar industry is laying people off. So, higher energy prices with less good paying jobs, all because of an emission that is actually a valuable commodity...

Incremental change is the path to sustainable success.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 27, 2016 19:54:34 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jul 25, 2016 23:47:24 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I'm certain at this point that negative interest rates are fraud. Stay

Japan bank SMFG's Q1 profit skids 31 pct, negative interest rates weigh

Japan's third-largest lender, said net profit fell 31 percent in the first-quarter, with returns on loans and bond investments hurt by the negative interest rate policy adopted by the country's central bank.

But hey, print some more fucking money to give to the banks so they can keep buying these NIRP bonds, further screwing the banking system and the economy.

And then....

The head of Germany’s largest bank says negative rates are ‘fatal’

“Monetary policy is now running counter to the aims of strengthening the economy and making the European banking system safer,” Cryan said, ahead of a bank summit starting Aug. 31.

Monetary policy is now running counter to the aims of strengthening the economy

Meaning they are fraudulent...

But I mean, it's not like the "best bank" in China is located in a ghost town...

China's Best Bank Called 'Mirage' of Shadow Lending

The best-performing bank in China is in a struggling city in the northeast where weeds sprout alongside the concrete skeletons of high rises in an industrial zone that mostly looks like a ghost town.

Steel plants have laid off tens of thousands of workers. Cranes stand idle on construction sites. Wipe away a spiderweb on a dirty glass door at an empty complex with smashed windows and there’s a notice from the local government demanding rent unpaid since November 2014.

Yet the Bank of Tangshan’s financial statements hardly reflect these realities. Instead, this small lender reports the fastest growth of 156 Chinese financial institutions and the lowest level of bad loans, a mere 0.06 percent. Its profit jumped 436 percent in two years and assets soared almost 400 percent since the start of 2014 to 177.9 billion yuan ($26.7 billion).

This ends.... poorly. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Off the no rebound second quarter....

First Factories, Now Services Signal Cracks in U.S. Economy

An abrupt drop in the Institute for Supply Management’s services gauge on Tuesday to a six-year low is the latest in a string of unexpectedly weak data for August. Other less-than-stellar figures include an ISM factory survey showing a contraction in manufacturing; a cooling of hiring; automobile sales falling short of forecasts; and an index of consumer sentiment at a four-month low.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Can't remember what thread we were talking about this in, but the strength on the weakness trend of this year has been outlined in this thread.

Looks like all those staycations, the renewed drilling, the record passengers during the summer months on flights, and with the surprise of massive soy bean exports(farming!) the strength in the weakness continues!

US advance Q3 gross domestic product up 2.9%, vs 2.5% increase expected

[tyfighter3]

One sector that is showing where the economy is at.

www.marketwatch.com/story/analysts-who-warned-this-summer-of-a-restaurant-recession-are-looking-smart-now-2016-11-01

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yes sir. Sad when 2% growth is the strength, hey? Bets are on the revision being down on the 2.9% this quarter. Take the 1.2%-1.4% and add 0.6%-0.8% for the summer, and that's what we are looking at+ the bump for exports due to bad weather in South America.

[tyfighter3]

www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500s-triangle-chart-pattern-warns-of-a-big-selloff-analyst-says-2016-10-10

 

The S&P closed today at 2089. Could be starting.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It has started, without a doubt. But I think it's going to take some time yet before it all comes to a head. I found the thread I was referencing a couple posts back, it's the Bonds are the house you live in thread. I will expand on a few of those point in the next bit here, seeing as Davidson was saying by the end of this year and I'm still saying E-O-Y 2017 and into 2018.