KASH IS KING

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 10, 2016 12:15:47 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

It's the (short term) way of the future.

Falling Earnings, Recession Warning

the last time earnings turned lower without a recession, Fed easing or fiscal expansion was in 1952. So if we are going to be in a period of negative earnings in the absence of any of these, it would be the first time in more than 63 years.

Earnings decline looms large over U.S. stocks

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's all cyclical.

The Great OK Stagnation: U.S. economy muddles along

Retail sales in February, for example, are forecast to turn negative. A pair of surveys of American manufacturers are likely to remain under water. And inflation shows little sign it’s about to soar — what would be a sure sign of an economy catching fire.


Instead the economy has caught a bit of a chill. Growth softened to 1% in the final three months of 2015 and the new year has gotten off to a plodding start. The U.S. probably will grow faster in the first quarter, but economists are forecasting a mild 2.3% advance in gross domestic product.

Chief economist Robert Dye of Comerica Bank calls the current era “The Great OK.”(And what it will be called is, The Great Stagnation )

........

Yet the U.S., seven years into a recovery, is also experiencing the weakest rebound since World War II. The economy has expanded historically at a 3.3% pace, but the U.S. hasn’t topped 3% since 2005. Missing from the current expansion has been the explosive 4%-plus gains in GDP that typically happen early on.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

RE: Post #90

Jan 15, 2016 11:39:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Quarter one 2016 US GDP numbers are going to be just "amazing." Four rate hikes this year, eh? Stay

U.S. retail sales, industrial output data point to softer growth

Retail sales fall for second straight month

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Factory Production in U.S. Rose in February for a Second Month

Total industrial production dropped 0.5 percent as utility output plunged by the most since March 2007.

US housing starts rebound as single-family projects soar

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's the way of the (short term) future.

U.S. leading economic indicators rise for first time in three months

A measure of U.S. leading economic indicators rose in February for the first time in three months and suggests steady if mild growth in the months ahead.

Global Risks Play Bigger Part in Fed's Rate-Rise Outlook

For the first time since the Asian and Russian crises rocked world financial markets in the late 1990s, U.S. monetary policy is as focused on the risks to global growth as it is on the domestic economy.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Only if you weren't reading this thread!!

The Fed’s decision was a historically large surprise, Goldman analysts find

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Stay

US Treasurys fall as ‘risk-on’ sentiment gains

On the data front, the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity index reading for February came in at -0.29. Existing home sales tumbled 7.1 percent last month, hitting their lowest level since November.

The return of earnings shenanigans

But driven by recent pressure on corporate profitability from a stronger dollar, weaker overseas growth and a collapse in energy prices, new evidence shows corporate executives are once again playing fast and loose with their earnings results. Warren Buffett even highlighted the problem in his recent shareholder letter.

They have a few reasons to play with the numbers. For one, the overall stock market has been unable to set new highs since last May, and management compensation is often tied to a rising share price. So, the pressure is on to do something, anything, to get stock prices higher.

Moreover, S&P 500 earnings have dropped for three consecutive quarters for the first time since the recession ended.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Could? How about has been, and will be for a while yet?

‘Stagflation’ could be the latest 1970s trend to make a comeback

Jan 15, 2016 11:39:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Quarter one 2016 US GDP numbers are going to be just "amazing." Four rate hikes this year, eh? Stay

The services sector barely grew in March

The people Markit spoke to said their clients were still reluctant to commit to new projects. Volumes of new work rose at the slowest pace in the index's almost-seven-year history.

In the release, Markit chief economist Chris Williamson said, "Worst may be to come. The greatest concern is the near-stalling of new business growth. Demand for goods and services is growing at the slowest rate seen this side of the global financial crisis. It’s not surprising therefore that companies lack pricing power, as reflected in a near-stagnation of average selling prices in recent months."

Without housing holding its own.... The snapback of Q2 that has been the trend of the last half decade? Without oil production?? Hard to imagine that. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

back to post #74... It's the strength in the weakness.

U.S. job gains keeping economy from grinding to a halt

Retailers and manufacturers are hurting. Companies have cut back on investment as profits fall. And the economy is likely to show disappointing growth again in the first three months of 2016.....

.....By most accounts, the surge in hiring has formed a bedrock for slow-but-stable U.S. growth at a time when many other nations are struggling. Even though corporate profits have dwindled, consumers are buying enough goods and services to encourage companies to keep adding workers to meet the rise in demand.....


....In 2015, adjusted pretax profits fell 3.2% to mark the first decline since 2008, when the U.S. was in the middle of its worst downturn since the Great Depression more than 80 years ago. And investment rose just 2.8% last year after a 6.2% increase in 2014.

Several key U.S. industries are also taking it on the chin. Energy producers have been walloped by the slump in oil prices and manufacturers have been bruised by falling exports. Retailers aren’t doing quite as badly, but sales have been soft.

Some economists note the decline in profits is tied heavily to the falling fortunes of the previously red-hot energy sector. But that’s not the whole story.

“The slowdown is indeed appearing in other industries as well, and we look for some of the forces driving it to continue,” wrote Jesse Edgerton, an economist at J.P. Morgan, in a note to clients. “We also caution against entirely dismissing the energy profit declines — after all, the profit decline that began in 2000 was “just high-tech” and the decline in 2007 was “just financials.”

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Here's a big surprise.... not! It's the way of the future.

Yellen strikes dovish tone on rates

U.S. consumer spending, trade data signal sluggish growth

Monday's report from the Commerce Department also showed consumer spending in January was not as strong as previously reported. That, together with other data showing a widening in the goods trade deficit in February, indicated economic growth remained sluggish in the first quarter.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Man, am I happy to live on this side of the pond... The New Marshall Plan is going to be something else.

Negative interest rates put the global economy on a razor’s edge

Several of the world’s central banks have crossed the Rubicon, commencing a high-risk experiment with negative interest rates. The intent is clear: reduce debt by confiscation and transfer wealth from savers to borrowers. This is ultimately an admission of defeat, as traditional means of bringing excessive debt under control have failed.....

.....The lack of impact on the real economy reflects the failure of these policies to materially increase consumption and investment. Heavily indebted or increasingly cautious households are reluctant to borrow to fund spending. Low business investment reflects lack of demand, over-capacity, and a reluctance to increase debt in a potentially deflationary environment.

Eurozone inflation remains negative in March

Europe is now drowning under the cost of welfare bills

Europe accounts for just 7pc of the world’s population, and 25pc of its GDP, and yet it also accounts for a massive 50pc of its welfare spending.

The point is an important one. Europe’s welfare spending is out of control, and is on a scale that is both lavish and unaffordable compared with the rest of the world.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Global Profits Recession Leaves Investors With Nowhere to Hide

Fed's Cautious Approach on April Rate Hike Raises Stakes for June

Global Risks

“Many participants expressed a view that the global economic and financial situation still posed appreciable downside risks

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Alcoa hurt by weak aluminum prices

Alcoa Inc. said its first-quarter earnings fell 92% as growth at businesses the metals maker plans to spin off later this year wasn't enough to offset continued weak prices in its raw-aluminum segment.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Here's that word again... IMF Warns of Global Stagnation as Growth Outlook Cut Again

So, the next thing is going back and seeing that every year since 2011, the IMF and others have lowered global growth. Which of course can only lead to the conclusion that since the crisis of '08 we have been in Stagnation(or as has been said around here since 2010, THE IS NO BOOM COMING!!) Since we love to give names to things, the Great Recession will have caused the Great Stagnation. Iconic (maybe a coincidence) that the Great Stagnation will end with a BOOM!?! Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Strength(been taken down a notch due to weak energy) in the weakness.

-The Fed’s Beige Book, released Wednesday, again used the phrase “modest to moderate” to describe growth in the U.S. economy
-Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall as U.S. Consumers Scrimp
-Eurozone won’t find a happy ending, worldly Asians fear
-Singapore Adopts 2008 Crisis Policy as Growth Grinds to Halt
-Exports of Materials, Components from South Korea to China Fell Q1
-China set to shake up world copper market with exports as stockpiles rise

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Funny, because I was saying the same thing to at the start of the year.

Fed’s Kashkari says U.S. economy in ‘uncharted waters

And other fun stuff.

-China's Q1 GDP posts slowest growth on record
-It's All Suddenly Going Wrong in China's $3 Trillion Bond Market

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Earnings are terrible, barely clearing the hurdle set on the ground at best. Oil is up because the market is cheering the possibility that OPEC and Russia will work together while the backbone of the slow, slow US recovery continues to weaken... As mentioned previously, US Q1 GDP is going to be "awesome". Mix that with Q4 at 1.4% and no momentum...

Schlumberger CEO Sees `Full-Scale Cash Crisis' in Oil Sector

Schlumberger Ltd. cut more jobs in the first quarter as the world’s largest provider of oilfield services sees the industry in an unprecedented downturn.
The global headcount dropped to 93,000 at the end of the first quarter with the reduction, Joao Felix, a spokesman for the company, said by e-mail. The company let go about 8,000 people in the quarter, and reclassified about 5,500 contractors as permanent workers, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Paal Kibsgaard said Friday in a conference call with analysts and investors. One-third of Schlumberger’s workforce, or roughly 42,000, has now been cleaved off since the worst crude-market crash in a generation began in mid-2014.

“The decline in global activity and the rate of activity disruption reached unprecedented levels as the industry displayed clear signs of operating in a full-scale cash crisis,”

Earnings Engine Conks Out in Nasdaq's Worst Week Since February

Is George Soros right about the coming crash in China?

Of course, similar “this time is different” arguments were expounded during the 2001 tech bubble and then again with the U.S. property market prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.

This past week alone, the People’s Bank of China pumped 870 billion yuan into markets to ease a cash drain.....

....its foreign reserves shrink — now down $800 billion since the middle of 2014.....

.......China’s size means it certainly is different. But this could also mean it faces a different, bigger credit unraveling or the next financial crisis.

Why stock-dividend growth over the next decade may be slowest since 1940s.. WAR!! China eyes deeper military ties with Afghanistan

Stay

[verrip1]

Looks like it's time for a little "but then again" comment.

Money markets have moved off the 0.1% mark (mine up to 0.42%  , heavy partying off that, huh? lolol).  The one Fed increase hasn't led to another yet, and I'd predict (mark it on your calendars now ...) no more than one more Fed increase by EOY.  That kind of blows out of the water all the scary talk about decreasing bond fund durations to about a year.  The 10 yr T isn't doing badly and might perform better than shorter stuff for a while.  As of now, why increase rates?  "Normalization" isn't a reason at all.  It's an excuse.  That rates eventually normalize is just the inherent cyclicality of economics.  Normalization doesn't carry a fixed time frame.  Look how long Japan has had low rates. 

US stocks haven't taken off dramatically after the early year correction ended, but they are moving more up than level.  US sector picking seems dicey to me.  I see no reason to have high expectations through EOY, but moderate gains seem achievable overall.

However there is good upward momentum in certain foreign regions.  Though Asia is not showing strength, emerging europe is strong.  There's also strength in latin america, particularly Brazil.  Turkey is also showing strength.  Developed Europe is iffy, IMO a natural reaction to the uncertainty of the Brexit.  If that vote allows Britain to stay, that would be enough to give EC countries in general a big jump.

I think that oil will have a lot to do with equities through EOY.  The producers are looking for cooperative efforts to control production to generate higher prices.  After all, the price drop was triggered by opening production (thanks, Russia - how does it feel to shoot yourself in the foot?), so closing it back seems the obvious solution.  That tells me that there is upward price pressure and no pressure to hold prices low.  Recovery through EOY looks likely to me.

Gold and miners had a nice little run, but that could be just a bounce and not a longer term trend. 

Things seem to have more positives than negatives.  More than I can say for the last two years.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

All valid points my man.‎ Especially the overall point about being in a situation where it's like chasing returns in most cases. IMO, building cash through dividends and deposits to be invested when the market corrects has been the best way to maximize returns up until this point. In fact, it will probably be that way until the end of next year.(which means into the spring of 2018 more than likely)

Further, I hate to say it, but for the next couple years Saudi Arabia and Iran look to be the areas of growth. The House of Saud is gearing up to spend trillions on their domestic economy, and thanks to the Iranian sanctions being lifted, Iran is open for business. Essentially, for these two the price of oil has become irrelevant ATM. Their domestic economies haven't seen cash like this....ever? Honestly, Putin doesn't give a shit about his economy all he is doing is staring at himself - shirt less - in the mirror flexing his military muscles saying, "I am so great, I am so great!"

Bottom line, it would have been logical for OPEC and Russia to cut production in 2014..... Now, the North American producers are in a catch 22. Higher prices, more production‎, bigger glut, then drop in prices.. China's economy is going the wrong way, and in the US people are saving more because you guys are still recovering from the crisis of '08... Like you were saying; developed Europe, not good(they still haven’t left the crisis of '08, just muddled along) This doesn't even get into the fact that the EU free trade zone is hucked...(wouldn't be betting on developing Europe either my friend)

Interest rates: couldn't agree with ya more. Not sure how closely you have been following this thread, but since the start of the year I have pointed out that raising rates at the end of last year was a mistake - something the FED essentially apologized for. I have also been sarcastically saying, four interest rate hikes this year, eh? Honestly, I can't remember the last time that I even said rates should go up. 2012/2013‎ maybe? As in, the FED should lift rates a bit to make sure the hosuing market doesn't overheat again - looking at places like San Francisco - it has.(Don't even get me started on how hucked properties in Vancouver and Toronto are!!) 

In fact, it was sometime in 2014 - I think - that and I were talking about negative interest rates. Can't remember the poster that was arguing with us about how it's impossible for rates on bonds to be negative, but here we are... negative rates all over Europe and the BOJ is now giving their banks negative rates! 

I want to clarify something for you my man. The last 6 years are the first time I have ever documented my thoughts day to day.(never kept a journal, etc, etc). So, if I have come of "doomy and gloomy" over the past few years, it's only because of that fact. Before the crisis of '08 I was warning people that bad things were coming. But you know how it goes with most, essentially every couple of months you have a conversation about current events. I mean, I always try to be positive about life even when the most important news isn't. Know what I mean?

Fact is, when we first met I‎ was irrationally exuberated that I was right about the US economy not being dead. I mean, that fact right there says something right? I was irrationally exuberated while everyone else was saying the world was over.  When I was warning to watch out for 2013, I wasn't saying a massive crash is coming that year, it was about outlining a situation in which trouble would be brewing on the horizon, AKA the stall in the global economic recovery - which did in fact happen in 2014 - and China's debt bubble coming home to roost; which started to happen in 2015.

However, something happened in 2014. PUTIN INVADED UKRAINE. This was something that I didn't account for. Something that I didn't think was possible because it was so incredibly STUPID! What's worse? Some very intelligent people were telling me that Putin was nuts. But because I was irrationally exuberated about being right about things, I ignored those warnings. In fact, you Vman, warned me in like 2010 about a self fulfilling prophecy..... well WW3 is in fact that self fulfilling prophecy that I wouldn't accept as a possibility. It's different this time, right?

So, for all the things I correctly predicted, the one thing I was being ignorant about, turned out to be the one thing that I should have been paying closer attention to - as it always is. Putin made it so I had to go back to formula on things, and I realized that I wasn't wrong about Free Enterprise being the final destination, just about the trip: and damn man, is that trip going to be a HELL of lot more bumpy that I predicted it would be in 2010.

[verrip1]

Let's talk about the Ukraine for a bit. 

People didn't pay much attention to the absolutely analogous Russian takeover of Moldova during the GHW Bush presidency.  Then, Russia armed locals and surreptitiously used their own military to carve out that out (post-USSR) using the ethnic majority rationale. 

Moving forward, Putin did no more in the Ukraine than Russia did in Moldova, carving out those areas with ethnic Russian majorities and strategic importance for primary (and possibly only those parts of the country) assimilation into Russia.  Importantly, Moldova was not of significant economic value, but the Ukraine's larger economy and great wheat production make even parts of it a much larger acquisition.  The military move came in like a storm, but the storm seems to have passed now as an international issue.  The Russians & their local partisans continue to push locally for control, but it is no longer spilling over to worldwide opposition. 

What seems to me has happened is that Putin diverted attention away from the Ukraine by involving Russia directly into military support for Assad in Syria.  This doesn't seem to me to be an escalation of further acquisition to include Syria as a client state, but a diversion of the international community away from Russia will be doing to strengthen her position in the Ukraine.  I'd put a coupla sheckels on a bet that should the Ukraine get in the news again, Putin will again start air strikes in Syria against all rebel groups to divert attention.

My concern level over WWIII involving Russia is pretty low.  First, the chances of a Russian victory in a war of major powers is slim.  They just no longer have the military infrastructure to carry off a win.  To fight a world war, one needs money.  Russia's primary source of money is sales of oil and gas to Europe, and that would be cut off in a world war.  OTOH, Putin's not afraid of bad PR or confrontation and threat of military expansion.  Were he real about WWIII being an option, there would be a major economic shift into war production that couldn't be hidden.  Having people worry about his warlike nature is just as good for Putin as actually making war because incursions like the Ukraine are what the world expects of him.  That he and Obama get along poorly is good for Putin because Obama is such an ineffectual, nonconfrontational guy.  Where Putin would act, Obama would strategize; and Putin knows that.  But Obama's one of the lamest lame duck Presidents we've had down here for quite a while.  Post-Obama America will be quite a different thing.  I don't know exactly what it will be, but I have no doubt that it won't be Obama-like at all.  Putin may have seen Obama as his key to a permanent foothold in the Ukraine, and be quite willing to look for another future soft spot in America's resolve to give Putin an entry point to expand once more.  Maybe Ukraine, maybe elsewhere.  As long as these incremental expansions go unopposed by the international community, Russia is getting what it wants at essentially no cost - certainly not at the dramatic cost of a major war.

So, just my 2 cents.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More like a $1.25

I think you mean, Georgia not Moldova though?

Couldn't agree more that Putin went into Syria to distract from the Ukriane. The fact that the war is still going on in the Ukriane, that over a million people have been displaced and the media is essentially ignoring it, is a testament to that.

The bigger problem lies in the fact that Putin went into Syria making that situation worse, after destabilizing the fragile relationship that there was between Russia and Europe.

What makes Russia's invasion of the Ukraine a much bigger deal than Georgia, was the Mujahideen took advantage of it. This took the refugee crisis/war that was a regional issue, and caused it to spread because there was no cooperation against people flowing into Europe.

No, I'm not saying WWIII being between Russia and the U.S.; I'm saying it's a clash of civilizations. It goes back to that self fulfilling prophecy that we were talking about all those years ago. The one about how many believed USA=Rome. We are in a world wide gorilla war, and Putin will go down in history as the man that allowed that to happen. His reward? He will be known as the man who tried to pull plays from Hitler's playbook, and caused Russia to end up but a sliver of what it once was.

This is why it's going to take hundreds of millions of Chinese troops to finish this thing, it's like a "clean sweep". The silver lining? The new silk road will be built as this is going on, and lots of resources are going to be needed to make it happen. So the period between 2018-2025 is looking rough, real rough. But if there are two things North America has, it's resources and a small population. IE, it won't take long for US to fix the problem here of the world wide debt wall that we are barreling towards. Especially because I know for a fact that with a little luck, a movement is coming together that could change the way we do business.

FWIW.

[verrip1]

I just don't see a world driven by militarism.

Do I see some militarism in the world today?  Yes.
Do I see widespread militarism throughout the world today?  No.
Do I see strongly developing and expanding militarism throughout the word today?  No.

JMO.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya man. It's like I always used to say; all the big guys agree, love not war makes more.

Unfortunately, I was wrong. One of them (Putin) thought that for some reason he could rebuild an old school Empire in the NWO, and this let the jihad go global.

Funny thing is, I should have known better than to think we were going to get through all this without one more big BOOM! Why? I knew before Putin invaded the Ukraine that the jihad was at its make or break point. Plus, it's only been prophesied for thousands of years that the greatest clash of civilizations will come someday, and was those times will be nasty as hell.

Guess I just wanted to believe that wasn't the case, that it was more metaphorical than literal.

Thank God and JC that we live where the NWO started, and have everything we need to make sure the truth will set us free.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No rate hike and pitiful Q1, GDP...

Jan 15, 2016 11:39:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Quarter one 2016 US GDP numbers are going to be just "amazing." Four rate hikes this year, eh? Stay

So far April's economic numbers aren't pointing to the snap back of previous years....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Chicago PMI falls to 50.4 April in sign of economic weakness

The Chicago business barometer, or Chicago PMI, fell 3.2 points to 50.4 in April, MNI Indicators said Friday. Any reading over 50 indicates improving conditions, but the index has been hovering near the cutoff line for more than a year.

The good news is that the EU is finally the same size it was in 2008!

Catch 22. Higher oil prices better for oil companies(maybe their blended earnings will be better than -100% next quarter!), but also squeeze any savings there may have been from gasoline. Also, oil companies are still trying to deal with sub $50 a barrel, which means rig count down, AKA no capex and less oil related jobs through the entire economy. Plus, look at XOM earning $0.43 and paying a dividend of $0.73, AKA the reason for their down grade....

US Consumer Spending Held Back by Higher Savings

Oil rig count falls for 6th straight week

Several energy companies have cut back capital spending plans to focus on maintaining liquidity and paying off debt, as revenue streams dried up in the wake of the oil crash.

Stay

[verrip1]

Since 2009, most all first quarter US GDPs have been fairly puny, so 2016 is following a recent multi-year trend.  Low Q1 consumer spending seems to have been a driver for the low GDP #s IMO, along with Q1 fear that the stock market correction would be another recession.  I didn't hear many talking heads promoting a stellar equity year in the US (though you can always find a few talking heads to take most any position on the economy).  Most I saw predicted a slow growth year of 2.5 to 3.5% real GDP.  The remaining 3 quarters will have to be moderately strong to achieve that; perhaps removing the fear of recession will spur a bearish trend through EOY.  Also, the dollar is fading against some other currencies, bucking recent years of growing US$ strength (check a graph of UDN, the bearish dollar ETF).  Should the US$ continue to drop, that will be a definite positive for foreign sales of US products.

I agree that the Q1 results will be drivers for no Fed overnight rate increases this year.  This would speak positively of (again) longer bond durations and negatively of the popular low duration bond instruments. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear you about the trend of low Q1 GDP, that's what I mean with the snap back in Q2 not looking positive this year.

The reason for that snap back is two fold: one, since 2009 oil and gas has been picking up, which turned into a boom. During 2010/2011 when all we heard that the US was finished, it was oil and gas production that lead the recovery. The second was demand from China. The over capacity in China has been showing up in CAT earnings before the oil and gas bust.

I have maintained since the start of the year, and still do now, that the housing market is strong enough to keep the US out of a recession while Earnings keep taking a beating. This will be the first time in like 63 years that this is going to happen, and it's soley because of insanely low rates.

In fact, Frank said it last night on the Jim Bohannon show, the FED should use the high stock market as a gauge to raise rates, not the GDP report. I couldn't agree more because the wealth effect we have seen in stocks has spilt over to the housing market. Low rates have over stimulated the housing market which just a few years ago was seen as DOA. The worst part about this is that because GDP has been essentially terrible since 2009, housing is very bubbly now because of the affordability factor. Truly insane when you think about it really.

However, I agree that muted consumer spending throughout the rest of the year will keep GDP around 2%. That, mixed with "uncertainty" in the global economy will keep the FED from raising rates(will we even seen two?). This - as you stated my friend - will keep the longer dated bonds in favor for sure.

Stay man!

[verrip1]

Let's consider all this in the sense of "investing perspectives" .  At least my take of portfolio inclusions from current conditions and trends for a US investor (all IMHO):

Buy/hold some long US Treasury ETFs (with moving stop loss) through EOY or really bad news.  But also hold a greater amount of low duration bond funds for security. 
Hold a bit of oil stocks - large cap foreign oil w/good divvy would be nice.  
Stocks at half US and half non-US.
Moderately accumulate sectional emerging market stock momentum ETFs with increasing stop loss set points. 
Moderately accumulate non-US bonds via OEFs/CEFs. 
Include some bearish US$ ETF or foreign stocks with strong US customer base for weakening dollar. 
Pick up a bit on recovery of managed/leveraged/strongly derivatived bond CEFs. 
Cautiously buy gold & silver and/or very cautiously pick miners/funds.
Focus US stock holdings on a cheap broad market fund, some midcap growth fund for spice and favored individual stocks (if any).
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Avoid HY bonds, cash (except emergency funds) CDs, short Treasuries, most high tech stock, general commodities OEFs and ETFs, hedge funds, alternative instruments, target date balanced funds and broad based bond OEFs and CEFs.
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As re real estate holdings, I see much better performance with global RE than US RE alone.  That in spite of the crazy Silicon Valley RE market here . 

I actually see consumer spending as a wild card which might just jump upward if fears of collapse of the US economy become more muted.  I think it is completely a matter that collapse is a fair amount of the conventional, vox populi thinking about the economy right now, and there are a lot of lemmings ready to jump off that cliff at a moment's notice to capitulate asap. 

I've always found that expected moderation is a better predictor of the economic future than expected drastic movement. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

For a few reasons, I doubt that we will see consumer spending surge if the threat of recession" comes out of the economy. The biggest is a demographic thing. It's a well known fact that boomers under saved for retirement, due to investments cratering and panic selling/over leverage in housing, we have the reason the biggest segment of consumers in the market will essentially never spend like they used to. On the other end of the curve, student loans, a bad job market, and being shook by the housing crisis has young people saving money. In fact, Millennials are out pacing everyone in saving money. However, as I call it, the skeleton crew will continue to plug along because well, you gotta eat...

As for housing, I wish that it was simply the Silicon Valley thing that was the problem. While not everywhere ‎is back to peak prices, this is the index of housing overall:



Since rates probably aren't going up, home builders and REITS are probably good places to look; of course there is always Home Depot and Lowes.

It looks like you have outlined a pretty defensive plan. Definitely more complex than the average investor would/should look at(of course I know you are not average). However, South Korean exports tumbled for the 16th month in April, Japanese exports dropped six months in a row in March(a surging Yen won't help that)‎, and India's manufacturing just held the line on expansion. Further, I don't care what China's offical numbers are saying, the social unrest says more about the state of the economy there than the BS that the commies put out. Personally, I would suggest being more targeted in your emerging market investment if you go that route, because the economic numbers aren't good across the board.(Brazil is in it, Russia is in a defacto recession.)

Personally, I am loving the fact I have kept my powder dry and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. I'm collecting a decent amount of dividends off my handful of holdings that are up nicely because of the time-frame they were bought in‎. This dry powder is going to be used to invest in myself and plans that I have to work with smart people. We are on the cusp of some really cool projects moving forward that are targeting certian areas where I know there is capex being made, where capex will continue to be made regadless of the great stagnation continuing, and where capex will surge in the event of WWIII.

So, for me KASH is king. IMHO, I think having dry powder around for opportunities as they arise is the smartest thing any investor at any level can do. It's a hope for the best, plan for the worst kind of thing. We all know things move in cycles, so as the cycles start moving towards the negative, your Kash pile starts growing. Heck, if you had a decent pile of cash and plowed it into an S&P index fund when oil started to stabalize in Feb, you would have made around 10%‎right now and could be happy for the year to kash out and wait to see what happens. I mean, one of the best investors I know once said, "investors buy stocks because of earnings." Looking at this, I hate to say it, but watch out for 2013:

[tyfighter3]

Watch out for 2013?