KASH IS KING

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 15, 2016 11:39:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Quarter one 2016 US GDP numbers are going to be just "amazing." Four rate hikes this year, eh? Stay

U.S. retail sales, industrial output data point to softer growth

what?
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options
Watchlist
2.8060 Down 0.0860(2.97%) 12:30PM EST
Prev Close: 2.89
Open: 2.83
Day's Range: 2.8010 - 2.8390
52wk Range: 2.23 - 3.26
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 13, 2016 14:12:52 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

My bonds hit 53% today.  Yes the bond bull market is going wild.
  MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study;
 Bad news there is still room for lower stocks!!  Action for hedging: reinvest and buy puts

STRESS TEST STUDY 1/13/2016
MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study 5050.145625
STRESS TEST STUDY 1/13.2016 20979.6454093202
RIDK050.145625 3851.09540932017
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION 20979.6454093202 0.7625711603752
UPSIDE 3851.09540932017 1.3113530277069
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK 0.7625711603752 15929.4997843202
djia risk/return 1.3113530277069 -0.2374288396248

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI
Watchlist
15,918.32 Down 460.73(2.81%) 1:02PM EST
Prev Close: 16,379.05
Open: 16,354.33
Day's Range: 15,842.11 - 16,354.33
52wk Range: 15,370.30 - 18,351.40
hlist
15,918.32 Down 460.73(2.81%) 1:02PM EST
Prev Close: 16,379.05
Open: 16,354.33
Day's Range: 15,842.11 - 16,354.33
52wk Range: 15,370.30 - 18,351.40

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

What was that? Couldn't quite hear ya...

Well, there was a time when we were saying the best time to raise the benchmark was when the flight to safety was on, as to not disrupt the housing market..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Wish I could find the first time we talked about this..

Home buyers may get helping hand from stock meltdown

The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates, U.S. stocks are tumbling and new worries about the Chinese economy seem to emerge daily. So go ahead and buy that house you’ve been looking at.

Well, not necessarily. But consider: all the worries about China that have battered the U.S. stock market in early 2016 have done the opposite for bonds. More money pouring into Treasurys has driven mortgage rates to a two-month low. A 30-year mortgage slipped to 3.92% in mid-January.

"Theoretical physics is a branch of physics which employs mathematical models and abstractions of physical objects and systems to rationalize, explain and predict natural phenomena."

[bimetalaupt]

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI
Watchlist
15,988.08 Down 390.97(2.39%) Jan 15
Prev Close: 16,379.05
Open: 16,354.33
Day's Range: 15,842.11 - 16,354.33
52wk Range: 15,370.30 - 18,351.

will the bottom hold?


My bonds hit 55% today. Yes the bond bull market is going wild.
MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study;
Bad news there is still room for lower stocks!! Action for hedging: reinvest and buy puts

STRESS TEST STUDY 1/13/2016
MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study 5050.145625
STRESS TEST STUDY 1/13.2016 20979.6454093202
RIDK050.145625 3851.09540932017
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION 20979.6454093202 0.7625711603752
UPSIDE 3851.09540932017 1.3113530277069
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK 0.7625711603752 15929.4997843202
djia risk/return 1.0913530277069 -0.0074288396248
( my estamate from last summer)- short term only

Is it time to jump in?   YES ; risk is lowest in 3 years

Just a thought,
Bruce C, Lendrum MBA, PhD, PharmB
Principe:Lendrum Labortories

[bimetalaupt]

This will be the last report of MMXXVI-Alpha due to the fact the computer was stolen from Eric's Red Ram Charger.   Also M3 report is at question

Sorry,
Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

[bimetalaupt]

We have recovered the data and checked it two times.  Last years were fine and current year was est best I could.  The alpha risk study was working and we plan to work on back prfile:///media/bleand some advanced studies with P. Goods study for rearranging data,etc.  Now my older dog is feeling left out.
I will take time tp keep everyone up on events etc

Bruce C. Lendrum, MBA,PhD, PharmB. 
Principle: Lendrum Laboratories

[bimetalaupt]

Nikkei 225 (^N225) -Osaka
Watchlist
17,029.09 Up 73.52(0.43%) 12:46AM EST
Prev Close: 16,955.57
Open: 16,902.29
Day's Range: 16,812.65 - 17,088.31
52wk Range: 16,665.10 - 20,952.70
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in .

Looking better for a turn around: I sure hate seeing prices going up when I am buying.  I am now 48% stock and 52% CASH/ T-BONDS.  LOOKING BETTER ALL THE TIME.

Just a thought,
Bruce Lendrum MBA,PharmB,PhD
Principal : Lendrum Laboritories

WELL it is NFL!!  T-Bonds and Cash 53% and stocks and ETF!!are now  47%.  Got to love Putin and(A+++++) &  
Man falls in love with a $$$$$$ and his $$$$$$$ falls in love with a kitchen remodel job ...Hell I building our new Bunk house on the Jal....Kitchen this summer..Most important room!!!Have you ever seen a $1,000,000.00 kitchen just looking for a few largest bedrooms!!

[tyfighter3]

I don't think being a buyer yet is a good thing. I think letting this thing bottom out then buying would be better. Oil is going lower. Oil at 20 to 22 maybe?

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 20, 2016 12:10:56 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I don't think being a buyer yet is a good thing. I think letting this thing bottom out then buying would be better. Oil is going lower. Oil at 20 to 22 maybe?

T3,  ( A+++++++)

Yes, I am headed to the ranch before I buy something!!  Great Post!! Time to feed the deer......Prices for homes in Midland are dropping like a rock.  My hands are weak and I do not want to catch a failing knife as I saw Eric at the diamond sharpener yesterday with the old Lock blade he wanted. 

Bruce Lendrum MBA, PharmB , PhD
Principal :Lendrum Labortories

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 19, 2016 1:15:24 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Nikkei 225 (^N225) -Osaka
Watchlist
17,029.09 Up 73.52(0.43%) 12:46AM EST
Prev Close: 16,955.57
Open: 16,902.29
Day's Range: 16,812.65 - 17,088.31
52wk Range: 16,665.10 - 20,952.70
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in .

Looking better for a turn around: I sure hate seeing prices going up when I am buying.  I am now 48% stock and 52% CASH/ T-BONDS.  LOOKING BETTER ALL THE TIME.

Just a thought,
Bruce Lendrum MBA,PharmB,PhD
Principal : Lendrum Laboritories

WELL it is NFL!!  T-Bonds and Cash 53% and stocks and ETF!!are now  47%.  Got to love Putin and(A+++++) &  
Man falls in love with a $$$$$$ and his $$$$$$$ falls in love with a kitchen remodel job ...Hell I building our new Bunk house on the Jal....Kitchen this summer..Most important room!!!Have you ever seen a $1,000,000.00 kitchen just looking for a few largest bedrooms!!

BULL market in T-Bonds cont!!! Expert 50/50 loses are  $21.82: less they lunch at Four Seasons in New York!!
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options
Watchlist
2.7570 Down 0.0470(1.68%) 2:59PM EST
Just a thought,
Bruce Lendrum MBA,PharmB, PhD
Principal: Lendrum Laboratories

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, I can hardly wait to eat food from a 1,000,000 private kitchen!

The most important room in the house though?? Yes to $$$$$$, but lest face it, the most important room in the house is our office!!! Under lock, key, and security!!

You're gonna this one, E=MBA++++

It's all about VOLUME!!!!

Just wait till Big E has his knife sharpened, Taefighter.. MMXVII platinum is looking to be something to write home about..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 20, 2016 13:46:27 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Jan 20, 2016 12:10:56 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I don't think being a buyer yet is a good thing. I think letting this thing bottom out then buying would be better. Oil is going lower. Oil at 20 to 22 maybe?

T3,  ( A+++++++)

Yes, I am headed to the ranch before I buy something!!  Great Post!! Time to feed the deer......Prices for homes in Midland are dropping like a rock.  My hands are weak and I do not want to catch a failing knife as I saw Eric at the diamond sharpener yesterday with the old Lock blade he wanted. 

Bruce Lendrum MBA, PharmB , PhD
Principal :Lendrum Labortories

House prices, and restaurants are takin' a hit I see now too. So the opposite of 2009... KASH is KING!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 15, 2016 11:39:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Quarter one 2016 US GDP numbers are going to be just "amazing." Four rate hikes this year, eh? Stay

U.S. retail sales, industrial output data point to softer growth

The Fed says sorry for its rate-hike forecast

“Four hikes in 2016 Ha. The economy is a lot more fragile than we thought,” the statement seemingly says.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As called in advance.. Stay .

Fourth-quarter GDP growth slows to 0.7%

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ut-oh!!!

Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market

Nearly half of S&P 500 companies have now reported fourth-quarter results through Tuesday morning, and earnings-per-share is headed for a 5.8% decline on the year, according to FactSet, compared with an estimated 5.7% decline as of Friday. That’s the data provider’s blended growth rate, which combines those companies that have reported with the estimates for the rest.

That would be the third-straight quarter of an EPS decline, the longest such streak since the Great Recession.

Lets not forget where half of these companies earnings come from though + the US housing market is stable. Skeleton krew? Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hmmm...

Biggest part of economy growing at slowest pace in two years, ISM finds

Any number over 50% indicates more businesses are expanding instead of contracting, but the ISM service index has dropped three straight months and is at the lowest level since February 2014.

The slowdown suggests that weakness among energy producers, manufacturers and major exporters may have spread to the much larger service side of the economy that employs the vast majority of Americans.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Surprise, surprise..... NOT!

Yellen Suggests Fed May Delay Rate Rises,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 2, 2016 17:51:56 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Lets not forget where half of these companies earnings come from though + the US housing market is stable. Skeleton krew? Stay

Retail sales get off to solid start in 2016

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And about those other half of earnings... The 50/50... Stay

Smashed Valuations Show S&P 500 Used to Profit Recession

The S&P 500 has a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 15.2 times, the lowest in two years and down 13 percent from 17.4 at the start of 2016, according to Bloomberg data. One way to get the multiple back to its historical average of 16.6 would be for corporate profits to fall this year. Currently, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg call for a 4 percent increase. The index climbed 2 percent at 4 p.m. New York time.

“There were some rather heroic growth forecasts built into a lot of U.S. earnings numbers, and clearly they’re no longer expected to materialize,” said Matthew Whitbread, a Boston-based investment manager at Baring Asset Management LLC, which oversees $35 billion.

Earnings outlook is getting even worse as first-quarter expectations tumble

As the U.S. December-quarter earnings season enters its final stages, expectations for the quarter that’s currently in progress are steadily worsening.

A full 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported through early Friday. And the picture is not pretty. FactSet data show expectations for first-quarter per-share earnings have fallen to a decline of 6.3%, far wider than the decline of 5.5% they were showing as recently as Monday.......

......The fourth quarter is on track for a decline in EPS of 3.1% and a decline in sales of 4.1%, according to FactSet.....

.....The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth straight quarter of negative sales, according to FactSet, the longest such negative streak since the four-quarter stretch from the fourth quarter of 2008 through the third quarter of 2009.

It will be the third straight quarter inn which earnings decline.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

back to post #74.... It's all about BALANCE!

What the curiously strong Dow Transports say about stocks the US Economy A.K.A. "The Strength in the Weakness"

Gains in utilities and manufacturing lift industrial output in January

Over the past year, manufacturing is up 1.2%. This gain “is admittedly not much, but it is a lot better than the ‘collapse’ it is often characterized to be,” said Steve Murphy, U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hobble, hobble.. OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast and Warns of Growing Risks

About that... Stay

Negative interest rates set stage for next crisis, Stephen Roach says

the eurozone, where real GDP growth has averaged just 0.1% over the 2008-2015 period.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's funny, because we have already been in economic stagnation, or as it will probably be known as; The Great Stagnation. The author in the article below is doing exactly what all mainstream economists seem to be doing, which is ignoring the war that is brewing. So, while over the last 6-7 years due to emerging markets we have had big market gains with US economic stagnation; we could easily see a BOOM in the US economy, with market stagnation for a decade due to emerging markets. Of course the transition from here to there is where the real adjustment lies. Stay

Welcome to economic stagnation and stock market dysfunction

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This is the most unhealthy combination there is..

The World's Debt Is Alarmingly High

One of the loudest creaking sounds coming from the markets right now is the global economy straining under a record pile of debt. The world has continued to borrow hand over fist since the financial crisis, adding nearly $60 trillion since 2007 in the process of pushing the worldwide debt load to $200 trillion, or nearly three times the size of the entire global economy.....

......After the 2008 financial crisis, investors poured money into China, Brazil, and other emerging markets to take advantage of recovering commodity prices and faster-growing economies. Banks in these places turned on the spigots and unleashed a wave of new credit to households and local companies. Since 2009, the average level of private debt in emerging economies has gone from 75 percent of GDP to 125 percent, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Private debt levels in China and Brazil are now double the size of the national economy.

Home Depot, Target to wrap up dismal earnings season

Much of that decline is due a sharp drop in energy sector earnings and weakened global growth.......companies with more exposure to international sales fared much worse than their counterparts that rely mainly on U.S. sales, as illustrated below:

EU Chamber urges China to reduce production

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China urged Beijing to do more to tackle excess industrial production, saying that failed attempts to do so have created a flood of excess goods that threatens to destabilize the global economy.

The call comes as Chinese manufacturers, hit by an economic slowdown, are sending products--from tires and steel to solar panels and chemicals--overseas that they can't sell at home.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With the US Service sector business activity declining for the the first time since October 2013, we have confirmation that trouble on the patch has spread to the general economy.

On the other hand, housing starts are still above a million, Home Depot and Lowes both beat on earnings, Toll Brothers says home orders point to strong spring sales, the DOW transports are showing and underlying strength in all this weakness, and the spring hiring season is coming up.

As noted on the 15th of January; Quarter one 2016 US GDP numbers are going to be just "amazing." Four rate hikes this year, eh? Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As suspected,

Fed’s Beige Book paints drab picture of activity through late February

None of the 12 districts in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reported any dramatic improvement in conditions in the January through late-February reporting period.


Growth was described as remaining “modest” or “moderate” in half of the districts. This was down from nine districts in the previous report.

Three districts reported “mixed” activity while two others said growth was flat. Kansas City reported a modest decline in activity.

Then there is this....

Stress in oil credit market is now at record levels

While, Greenspan wasn't the most effective FRB Chairman, he's on the money here(Two articles, same interview).

Alan Greenspan comes out against using negative rates

Greenspan said “there are so many huge unknowns” in the global economic outlook at the moment.

“I have never seen this many unknowns,” Greenspan said. He cited the outlook for the dollar and China’s economy, but didn’t go into detail.

The former Fed chairman said he wasn’t optimistic. “I haven’t been [optimistic] for quite a while. And I won’t be until we can resolve the entitlement programs,” he said.

“Nobody wants to touch [entitlements]. But it is gradually crowding out capital investment and that is crowding out productivity and that is crowding out the standards of living. Where do you want me to go from there?” he asked.

Greenspan Says Negative Rates `Warp' Investment Behavior

“I don’t see how we essentially bring the entitlements down, which means we’re going to get some form of political crisis, which is what we’re in the process of getting now,” he said. “Where this ends up, I do not know.”

It's the death of Socialism; stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nearing the 2009 peak in regards to business being in financial distress, earnings recession, China's Government and SOE debt downgraded by Moody's, the EU telling refugees to stop coming while the war in the mid East spreads, however.... Best U.S. Stocks Rally Since 2014 Fueled by Optimism in Economy strength in the weakness...

Ba da ba ba ba. I'm lovin' it..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

In New Economic Plan, China Bets That Hard Choices Can Be Avoided

As economic growth has fallen while debts and excess industrial output have risen, Chinese leaders have faced growing questions about whether they will carry out the painful policy surgery many experts say is needed to cut away the financial dead weight on the economy.

But the answer that Prime Minister Li Keqiang gave on Saturday was to wager that China could enjoy a relatively painless cure that avoids hard choices between spurring growth and restructuring. Chinese leaders’ usual two-sided rhetoric about their options — peril is close at hand, but so is a sure cure — was especially striking in Mr. Li’s latest annual report to the legislature, the National People’s Congress.

“Domestically, problems and risks that have been building up over the years are becoming more evident,” Mr. Li told the roughly 3,000 delegates to the congress, a Communist Party-controlled body. But “there is no difficulty we cannot get beyond,” he said in the speech, which was broadcast live nationwide.

The four most expensive worlds ever: "this time it's different. "

HSBC Says 'CKash Is King'

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's the (short term) way of the future.

Falling Earnings, Recession Warning

the last time earnings turned lower without a recession, Fed easing or fiscal expansion was in 1952. So if we are going to be in a period of negative earnings in the absence of any of these, it would be the first time in more than 63 years.