Pants
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 19:26:44 GMT -5
Posts: 7,579
|
Post by Pants on Oct 11, 2013 9:15:02 GMT -5
If I'm hearing Virgil right, his sole argument is that if he doesn't observe something, the strict probability for it existing is less than if he does observe it. (How he reconicles this argument with his belief in God would be interesting mental gymnastics.)
I mean he's right in that if I see my uncle haul off and punch my aunt, there's a 100% chance she's being abused. If I don't see him punch her, the probability that she's being abused is probably the same as the general population, which is approximately 25% (in the US, unadjusted for whatever risk factors.) However, just because I don't see that abuse happening, that doesn't mean it's not.
Virgil, what you need to wrap your head around is that approximately 25% of the people around you have been or will be abused at some point in their lives. One in 4. Beaten. Raped. Screamed at. Imprisoned. Confined against their will. Starved.
Just because you don't see it, doesn't mean it's not there. In fact, expecting not to find it means you are more likely not to.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 64,494
|
Post by Tennesseer on Oct 11, 2013 9:37:58 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be a PITA, Virgil, but there are, I believe, several here who would disagree with that statement. I'm one of them. Human beings cannot be reduced to a mathematical equation. Emotions are involved and those just don't compute, IMO. The matter is more complex than a series of numbers and letters. mmhmm-Add me to the list. Virgil-It may not be true, but it almost seems like you have to mathmatically caculate the degree of empathy you will extend toward others before actually doing so.
|
|
Sum Dum Gai
Senior Associate
Joined: Aug 15, 2011 15:39:24 GMT -5
Posts: 19,892
|
Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 11, 2013 10:17:56 GMT -5
One guy says he's blessed to have never personally witnessed abuse and you guys have to jump his shit. What's wrong with you? I'm personally pretty jealous. I lost the ability to make that claim at like 3 or 4. Some of my earliest childhood memories are watching my mom and step dad scream at and hit/kick each other.
|
|
swamp
Community Leader
THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 19, 2010 16:03:22 GMT -5
Posts: 45,617
|
Post by swamp on Oct 11, 2013 10:22:09 GMT -5
One guy says he's blessed to have never personally witnessed abuse and you guys have to jump his shit. What's wrong with you? I'm personally pretty jealous. I lost the ability to make that claim at like 3 or 4. Some of my earliest childhood memories are watching my mom and step dad scream at and hit/kick each other. We jumped his shit because he was trying to use a math equation to prove since he hasn't seen domestic violence in his little social circle, it probably isn't that big of a problem. I'm happy he hasn't seen it, I wish my life was that rosy. ETA: If he had just said, "I don't have any personal experience with DV, I've lived a blessed life" I don't think anyone would have thought twice.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 7, 2024 10:25:59 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2013 10:22:21 GMT -5
They're jumping on his shit because he tried using Math to disprove the occurrence of something that is inherently a highly emotionally charged circumstance.
Math and emotions don't mix!
|
|
Pants
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 19:26:44 GMT -5
Posts: 7,579
|
Post by Pants on Oct 11, 2013 10:32:48 GMT -5
One guy says he's blessed to have never personally witnessed abuse and you guys have to jump his shit. What's wrong with you? I'm personally pretty jealous. I lost the ability to make that claim at like 3 or 4. Some of my earliest childhood memories are watching my mom and step dad scream at and hit/kick each other. People are jumping on his shit more because he is assuming that because he hasn't witnessed it, there's a lower probability of it around him. Not being a direct witness doesn't mean it's not there, it just means you're not seeing it. And I'm sorry your childhood sucked like that.
|
|
Sum Dum Gai
Senior Associate
Joined: Aug 15, 2011 15:39:24 GMT -5
Posts: 19,892
|
Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 11, 2013 10:40:33 GMT -5
His math is sound though. If he never saw evidence of abuse it is less likely to have occurred. He didn't say it definitely didn't occur, just that it was less likely. You guys need to chill. I don't see evidence of abuse in our neighborhood, outside of a couple homes. I obviously know it happens, as I have experienced and seen it. Is it going on, probably, but since I see way less direct evidence here than in the neighborhood I grew up in it probably is happening less frequently.
|
|
Taxman10
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 29, 2010 15:12:43 GMT -5
Posts: 3,455
|
Post by Taxman10 on Oct 11, 2013 10:43:37 GMT -5
a kid falls down the stairs, breaks his arm and get some face bruises. the next thing you know the whole world is an expert at DV, and the kid's parents are hauled off to jail.
|
|
Sum Dum Gai
Senior Associate
Joined: Aug 15, 2011 15:39:24 GMT -5
Posts: 19,892
|
Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 11, 2013 10:44:55 GMT -5
And all this crap about abusers being great at hiding it is just that. You don't get drunk/stoned out of your mind and scream at/beat your wife and kids in silence. The neighbors know something is going on but most of them are too apathetic to get involved.
|
|
Taxman10
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 29, 2010 15:12:43 GMT -5
Posts: 3,455
|
Post by Taxman10 on Oct 11, 2013 10:45:24 GMT -5
I agree
|
|
Pants
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 19:26:44 GMT -5
Posts: 7,579
|
Post by Pants on Oct 11, 2013 11:10:27 GMT -5
His math is sound though. If he never saw evidence of abuse it is less likely to have occurred. He didn't say it definitely didn't occur, just that it was less likely. You guys need to chill. I don't see evidence of abuse in our neighborhood, outside of a couple homes. I obviously know it happens, as I have experienced and seen it. Is it going on, probably, but since I see way less direct evidence here than in the neighborhood I grew up in it probably is happening less frequently. Again - what math? we have the observations of a sample size of 1. If you all got math - "equations" - lets see. And I'll compute the standard error of the estimate.....maybe a reliability quotient..... then let's talk. about "math".... Let 1=witnessing. Anything less than 1=less probable. Which, while true, is not really very helpful.
|
|
The Captain
Junior Associate
Hugs are good...
Joined: Jan 4, 2011 16:21:23 GMT -5
Posts: 8,717
Location: State of confusion
Favorite Drink: Whinnnne
|
Post by The Captain on Oct 11, 2013 11:15:52 GMT -5
His math is sound though. If he never saw evidence of abuse it is less likely to have occurred. He didn't say it definitely didn't occur, just that it was less likely. You guys need to chill. I don't see evidence of abuse in our neighborhood, outside of a couple homes. I obviously know it happens, as I have experienced and seen it. Is it going on, probably, but since I see way less direct evidence here than in the neighborhood I grew up in it probably is happening less frequently. Again - what math? we have the observations of a sample size of 1. If you all got math - "equations" - lets see. And I'll compute the standard error of the estimate.....maybe a reliability quotient..... then let's talk. about "math".... So as a math person yourself, please explain to me how the probability of something existing is NOT higher when you actually observe something, then when you do not observe something. I'm only a simple accountant - but if I see something then I know for certain it exists. If I don't see it, then I may not have as much certainty.
|
|
Wisconsin Beth
Distinguished Associate
No, we don't walk away. But when we're holding on to something precious, we run.
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 11:59:36 GMT -5
Posts: 30,626
|
Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 11, 2013 11:27:57 GMT -5
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 11, 2013 11:35:26 GMT -5
So as a math person yourself, please explain to me how the probability of something existing is NOT higher when you actually observe something, then when you do not observe something. I'm only a simple accountant - but if I see something then I know for certain it exists. If I don't see it, then I may not have as much certainty. who is observing what - exactly? How many people are seen? how many behaviors/interactions are seen? how many behaviors are unseen? How systematic is the observation? Is the observer trained to detect the phenomenon in question? If someone is reporting from their widow mother's basement where they spend 95% of their waking time - Or is someone reporting who has large, diverse social circles, as well as a professional presence at a large company and serves in a community capacity for several places? If someone's social circle consists entirely of 5 single males who each lives alone vs one that includes many couples and families across different circles. how much time is spent interacting with people - on average? 5-10 minutes per month vs hours at a social gathering or regular club meeting. What are we talking about? Where are the numbers? What are we working with - and to what group are we extrapolating to? Everyone on the block? everyone in the company? Everyone at last Friday's party? 5 guys in the basement for D and D night? Also - if you close your eyes and see nothing - does that really affect any probability anywhere? if someone is bruised and it doesn't even cross your mind that they didn't trip up the stairs - and in fact - 2 weeks later when they are bruised again - you honestly don't even remember the tripping up the stair story......You have seen "nothing" - but that doesn't really mean anything or indicate a thing about any probability. I'm cutting my losses in this thread and heading back inside my cave. A complete history of what I've said in this thread is as follows: HistoryIt's in reverse chronological order and hence reading starts at the bottom. There isn't a great deal of material. I'd encourage all interested parties to read it.
|
|
|
Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Oct 11, 2013 11:45:45 GMT -5
If he never saw evidence of abuse it is less likely to have occurred. He didn't say it definitely didn't occur, just that it was less likely. You guys need to chill. I don't see evidence of abuse in our neighborhood, outside of a couple homes. I obviously know it happens, as I have experienced and seen it. Is it going on, probably, but since I see way less direct evidence here than in the neighborhood I grew up in it probably is happening less frequently.
I suspect that what is not seen is far more prevalent than the in your face abuse where you see the bruises/injuries or verbal abuse in public. If this not is the case, why is it that EVERY time I see a health professional (and believe me, I've seen a lot of them the last couple of years), I get asked if I am abused or if I am in fear of being hurt? There is absolutely no reason to suspect I am being abused. I am not skittish, nor am I abused. There is nothing in my manner to assume that I am being abused, but they still ask.
This makes me think that there are a LOT of people that are very good at hiding their abuse.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 7, 2024 10:25:59 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2013 11:54:33 GMT -5
A 2 year old that went to the same daycare as my son was taken to the ER after falling off a swingset tower at daycare. They xrayed his arm which turned out to not be broken, but they found another healed break. They must have got suspicious and checked him all over. They found THREE previous breaks and a skull fracture. This kid has been going to the daycare since he was 3 months old and our daycare lady is really good. She said she never noticed anything unusual for bruises. Two year olds do get banged up. Mine is horrible.
He was pulled from the house, but last I heard he was back home. I never see him anymore because his parents started taking him to a different daycare.
|
|
zibazinski
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 24, 2010 16:12:50 GMT -5
Posts: 47,910
|
Post by zibazinski on Oct 11, 2013 12:31:36 GMT -5
I called on a neighbor kid. It's summer in Florida and she is wearing long sleeves and long pants. Mumsy leaves her with latest boy toy all the time. CPS shows up, nothing done but they move. Happen to move next to a teacher friend of mine who calls CPS for the same reason I did. Nothing happened, they moved again. Thank you, CPS, for doing nothing. Case closed.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 7, 2024 10:25:59 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2013 12:35:13 GMT -5
How about blaming Mom for some of it??!
We have a local case where they just fired a bunch of CPS workers because a 5 year old was bludgeoned to death by the Mom's live-in BF. Where's is the blame for Mom for inviting that POS into their lives!?!?
|
|
NomoreDramaQ1015
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 14:26:32 GMT -5
Posts: 48,076
|
Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Oct 11, 2013 12:49:09 GMT -5
Where's is the blame for Mom for inviting that POS into their lives!?!?
I know I'll get slapped as a "victim blamer" but I can't help it. When I so much as hypothetically think about DH or any hurting my child I become sick to my stomach and red eyed with rage. I can't even contemplate standing beside a man who hurts my child.
I don't understand the desire to have a random penis in your life being so strong that you'll look the other way as your child is hurt or worse, killed.
Gwen is a part of my soul, I would never stand by and let someone harm her.
|
|
cronewitch
Junior Associate
I identify as a post-menopausal childless cat lady and I vote.
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:44:20 GMT -5
Posts: 5,979
|
Post by cronewitch on Oct 11, 2013 15:11:21 GMT -5
Where's is the blame for Mom for inviting that POS into their lives!?!?
I know I'll get slapped as a "victim blamer" but I can't help it. When I so much as hypothetically think about DH or any hurting my child I become sick to my stomach and red eyed with rage. I can't even contemplate standing beside a man who hurts my child. I don't understand the desire to have a random penis in your life being so strong that you'll look the other way as your child is hurt or worse, killed. Gwen is a part of my soul, I would never stand by and let someone harm her. Most people blame the Mother even if she had no way of knowing he was a POS. If a mother isn't home and the child's father harms it the first thing people do is blame the mother. She may know he is hot tempered but thing nobody would harm an infant or toddler. She may have seen him shake the baby or slap the toddler and still not believe he could seriously harm them on purpose. She may know he push the swing to hard making the toddler break and arm but that was an accident and all kids get bumps and bruises. Besides it is really the infant or toddler's fault for making him mad when they should know he loses his temper. The mother's only real issue is she didn't teach the children to properly walk on egg shells so he didn't have to punish them.
|
|
NomoreDramaQ1015
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 14:26:32 GMT -5
Posts: 48,076
|
Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Oct 11, 2013 15:14:44 GMT -5
She may have seen him shake the baby or slap the toddler and still not believe he could seriously harm them on purpose
Sadly that's more common than peole think. Nebraska now requires you watch a Shaken Baby video and sign a form stating you watch it before they'll release you and the child from the hospital. DH and I joked a bit but the nurse said they have A LOT of people come in who had no clue shaking your baby was not acceptable. And of course there are the ones that know and just don't care.
|
|
cronewitch
Junior Associate
I identify as a post-menopausal childless cat lady and I vote.
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:44:20 GMT -5
Posts: 5,979
|
Post by cronewitch on Oct 11, 2013 15:41:42 GMT -5
Shaking a baby is a great idea, the little brain bangs against the inside of the head and sometimes the baby will stop crying and just lay there until another adult comes to take them to the hospital. Really what if a baby won't quit crying and you know they aren't wet or hungry you really have no choice but to shake them.
|
|
NomoreDramaQ1015
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 14:26:32 GMT -5
Posts: 48,076
|
Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Oct 11, 2013 15:47:04 GMT -5
I know, Crone. DH and I were sitting there watching this video and I said if you have to be TOLD this then you have no business having children.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 11, 2013 15:49:42 GMT -5
How about blaming Mom for some of it??! Mom is responsible or co-responsible for it in the majority of cases. The same study shows "abuse by romantic partner" as constituting only 5% (1 in 20) cases.
|
|